Powerful Category 3 Irene enters the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:49 PM GMT on August 24, 2011

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Powerful Category 3 Hurricane Irene stormed through the Turks and Caicos Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding. On Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where half of the population of these islands live, winds reached a sustained 65 mph at a personal weather station at Pine Cay, and the pressure bottomed out at 989 mb. The eyewall of Irene missed the island, with the center of the storm passing about 60 miles to the southwest. The center of Irene passed about 60 miles to the northwest of Grand Inagua Island, and Category 1 hurricane conditions were probably experienced on that island. Damage in the Turks and Caicos is likely to be much less than the $50 - $200 million wrought by Category 4 Hurricane Ike of 2008, since Irene's eyewall missed populated islands.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.

Monday, Irene hit Puerto Rico as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds, but reached hurricane strength as it emerged into the Atlantic northwest of the capital of San Juan. One drowning death is being reported from the island, and the storm dumped up to 20 inches of rain in some areas. About 11% of the island was still without power this morning, and numerous roads were closed due to flooding and landslides. Irene did an estimated $17 million in damage to agriculture and $2 million to ports in Puerto Rico. Satellite estimates suggest that Irene has brought only 1 - 2 inches of rain to Haiti. With Irene now pulling away from Hispaniola, Haiti can expect only another 1 - 2 inches from the hurricane, and appears to have dodged a major bullet. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches were common across the Dominican Republic, where moderate flooding but no deaths occurred.


Track forecast for Irene
Continuing dropsonde missions by the NOAA jet have helped to significantly narrow the uncertainty in the 1 - 3 day forecasts from the computer models. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. However, the models still diverge considerably on their 4 - 5 days forecasts, and we don't know if Irene will plow up the mid-Atlantic coast into New Jersey, as the GFDL model is predicting, hit New England between Long Island, NY and Massachusetts, as the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF models are predicting, or miss the U.S. and hit Canada, as the NOGAPS model is predicting.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Latest data from the Hurricane Hunters shows that Irene has paused in its intensification cycle. A gap has opened in the eyewall, and the central pressure has remained constant at 956 - 957 mb over the past few hours. However, the hurricane is embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a Category 4 storm sometime in the next two days. Satellite loops show that Irene is well-organized, with excellent upper-level outflow, and impressive spiral banding.

Irene's impact on the Bahama Islands
Irene is making a direct hit on Crooked Island (population 350) in the Bahamas, and will continue west-northwest and hit Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700) late tonight. These unfortunate islands will bear the full brunt of Irene's 115+ mph winds and 8 - 13 foot storm surge, and suffer major damage that will take months to recover from. Major damage is also likely on Long Island (population 3000) and San Salvador Island (population 1000.) Shortly after midnight tonight, winds at the capital of Nassau, home to 70% of the population of the Bahamas, will rise above tropical storm force, and increase through the night. By late morning on Thursday, sustained winds will peak on Nassau at just below hurricane force, 60 - 70 mph. Nassau will miss the brunt of the storm, and I expect the airport should be able to re-open on Friday. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 60 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm, but Abaco Island to its east will likely experience Category 2 hurricane conditions Thursday afternoon. However, Abaco will probably miss the right front eyewall of Irene with the strongest winds and highest storm surge.


Figure 2. Wind distibution around Irene as of 1330 UTC (9:30am EDT) August 24, 2011. Irene was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds at the time. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors) extended over Crooked Island to the storm's northwest, and over Mayaguana Island to the east. Image credit: NOAA/AOML. Irene is a large storm, and its potential storm surge damage rated 3.9 on a scale of 0 to 6, with its wind damage potential rated at 2.5 on a scale of 0 to 6.

Irene's impact on the Southeast U.S.
Long-period ocean swells from Irene will reach the coast from Florida to North Carolina tonight, and continue to build as the storm approaches. The outermost rainbands of the hurricane will reach South Florida by Thursday morning, and spread over much of the eastern coastal portion of Florida during the day Thursday. If Irene follows the official NHC forecast through the Bahama Islands, the storm's expected radius of tropical storm-force winds of 130 - 170 miles will keep tropical storm conditions just off the east coast of Florida. Sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph can be expected along the coast of Florida during Irene's point of closest approach, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2" will be common along the coast. Georgia, which could use the rain, will get very little. It is unlikely any airport in Florida or Georgia will need to close for Irene.

Late Friday night or early Saturday morning, Irene's outer spiral bands will move over the southern coast of North Carolina and the northeastern portion of South Carolina, and tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph will arrive. Winds will steadily increase to hurricane force on the Outer Banks by Saturday night. The main damage from Irene in North Carolina will come from the storm's flooding rains of 4 - 12" that will fall in coastal areas. Fortunately, this region is under moderate to severe drought, so the damage will not be as severe as that experienced during Hurricane Floyd of 1999. Significant wind damage can be expected in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and considerable storm surge damage may occur along the shores of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. If Irene's eye misses making landfall in North Carolina, total damage from the storm should be less than $200 million, and could be considerably less than that.


Figure 3. Sea surface temperatures for August 24, 2011. Temperatures of 26°C (79°F) are typically needed for a hurricane to maintain its strength (black line). This boundary lies just off the southern coast of New Jersey this year, which is much farther north than usual.


Figure 4. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Monday morning, August 29, at 8am EDT. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Irene's impact on the mid-Atlantic and New England
The impact of Irene on the mid-Atlantic and New England is highly uncertain at this point, because we don't know if the core of the storm will miss the coast or not. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along a 100-mile swath just to the west of where the center tracks, and the worst wind and storm surge damage will occur to the east. If the core of Irene stays offshore, the mid-Atlantic and New England may escape with a few hundred million dollars in damage from flooding due to heavy rains and storm surge. If Irene hits Long Island or Southeast Massachusetts, the storm has the potential to be a $10 billion disaster. Irene is one of those rare storms that has the potential to make landfall in New England as a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. It is difficult for a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane crossing north of North Carolina to maintain that intensity, because wind shear rapidly increases and ocean temperatures plunge below the 26°C (79°F) level that can support a hurricane. We do expect wind shear to rapidly increase to a high 30 - 50 knots once Irene pushes north of Delaware, which should knock the storm down by at least 15 - 30 mph before it reaches New England. However, this year sea surface temperatures 1 - 3°F warmer than average extend along the East Coast from North Carolina to New York. Waters of at least 26°C extend all the way to Southern New Jersey, which will make it easier for Irene to maintain its strength much farther to the north than a hurricane usually can. During the month of July, ocean temperature off the mid-Atlantic coast (35°N - 40°N, 75°W - 70°W) averaged 2.6°F (1.45°C) above average, the second highest July ocean temperatures since record keeping began over a century ago (the record was 3.8°F above average, set in 2010.) These warm ocean temperatures will also make Irene a much wetter hurricane than is typical, since much more water vapor can evaporate into the air from record-warm ocean surfaces. The latest precipitation forecast from NOAA's Hydrological prediction center shows that Irene could dump over 8 inches of rain over coastal New England.


Figure 5. Soil moisture profiles from yesterday show that a region of very moist soils ranking in the top 1% in recorded history (dark green colors) lie over northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

Tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains will move into Eastern Virginia Saturday afternoon, and push northwards to Delaware and coastal Maryland by late Saturday night. Tropical moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere will also stream well ahead of Irene into New England on Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing what is called a "Predecessor Rain Event" (PRE). The Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia airports will be right at the edge of the heavy rain and high wind area, and it currently appears they will not have to close for an extended period. The Philadelphia and New York City airports may not be as lucky, and it is possible they will suffer extended closures Sunday morning and afternoon. By late Sunday night, Irene's rains will move north of New York City, allowing the airports to re-open. The highest potential for damaging fresh-water flooding is in northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is near record high levels, and there is nowhere for the rain to go (Figure 5.) Heavy rains of 4 - 12" are likely across all of coastal New England if Irene passes within 100 miles of shore.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave far out in the eastern Atlantic about 200 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, Invest 90L, is showing signs of organization. NHC is giving this disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. Several of our models do develop 90L into a tropical storm by early next week, but long-range models are showing that this system will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT today
I'll be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Wednesday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner, Tim Roche, and Angela Fritz will also be there. Listeners can email in or call in questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CCSoFLA79:


in 36 hours wouldn't she be on top of us? And if the NHC suspected Tropical forrce winds they put up a Watch for 36 hours in advance. So why haven't they. Seems to me like they do not expect it. Ain't gonna happen


They're not expecting it, but it could happen...
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So if this thing doesn't move straight north by the 5 PM advisory be concerned?
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Look at her just zoom to the nw
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



WELL I DONT LIVE IN FLA AND IF YOU CANT TELL THAT IRENE HAS MOVED W/WNW FOR THE LAST 4 HOURS YOU NEED YOUR EYES CHECKED...NO ONE IS SAYING IRENE IS GOING TO HIT FLA BUT THEY SURE COULD BE UNDER TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN 36 HOURS IF SHE KEEPS MOVING W/WNW..


in 36 hours wouldn't she be on top of us? And if the NHC suspected Tropical forrce winds they put up a Watch for 36 hours in advance. So why haven't they. Seems to me like they do not expect it. Ain't gonna happen
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As the storm makes it's closest approach to SE FL tomorrow, the weather will be amazing, as it sucks all of the moisture out of the air, it will be sunny, dry, and breezy. Another day in paradise.
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Quoting CCSoFLA79:
people keep saying jog to the west.... i just don't see it. Looks NW to me.


Once this loop has finished loading, speed up using "Faster" and you will see it.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10873
232. maeko
Quoting KEHCharleston:

Isn't Charleston at approximately 32N 80W? Wouldn't that be close enough to feel effects? The NHC track has been right on for awhile now; so I am watchful - not worried. I will be even more "watchful" if it goes much farther west than 77W. However, I have a good amount of confidence in the NHC and you all are the BEST!


yes, i suspect we will get some serious beach erosion (sorry, Wild Dunes) and some storm bands, i believe. i hope that will be the worst of it. :/
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at 12:45EDT I have her at 22.5N/74.1W based on satellite location of the eye... she should start to gain more N than W very soon- and if not, then we are drifting back west (at least in the short term...). she needs to steer 315 between 2PM and 5PM to make the predicted turn as forecast... Not a cause for panic or undue concern, just an observation... Now I'll sit back and have a thunderstorm...
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


I am so hoping this moves into Charleston, SC. So we can get some good impacts in Greensboro, NC. Hoping praying to god! We need the rain!



Okay, so I don't post hardly ever but I read this blog daily and this statement is totally uncalled for.

I mean really, there are 227 air miles between Charleston, SC and Greensboro, NC (assuming hurricanes don't take the interstate-LOL)-- you REALLY would sacrifice the lives, homes, history of Charleston, SC so you can have greener grass?

I'm sorry, blog, but these kind of statements really ruin my educational experience that I recieve from this blog- especially when I have 100 year old property full of memories looking to go down the tube AKA Hazel (1954) in just a few days.

Jeez- that really got under my skin. And oh by the way? God is spelled with a capital "G".
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Quoting rkay1:
Okay? The ocean will get a little bumpy.  Whats your point?


Just curious, where do you live?
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Quoting VieraChris:


Agreed. And as a Brevard County resident, watching VERY closely. At roughly 28N and 80.5W would really love to see that right angle turn the NHC and models have been predicting. Any time now would be great!


With the turn to the North not happening as of yet...what is the next ??? to make her turn and when is that expected?
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Quoting maeko:


WTH! are you some kind of sadist?!

No, not sadists.........just living in areas that are in need of RAIN in the WORST WAY!! And if a hurricane skirts the coast and brings us RAIN then THANK YOU JESUS!
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Don't even think it is physically possible for Irene to come much farther west, unless she "busts the trough" and "pumps the ridge"
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they do it at disney. twc put john hope back on the do the tropical updates
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If Irene gets to 77W before 25N then that would be an issue for the east coast, so keep looking for that. Just sayin...
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Quoting CCSoFLA79:
people keep saying jog to the west.... i just don't see it. Looks NW to me.


Yep. Irene has been travelling at around 305 for the last few hours.
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Quoting FLWaterFront:
Wow. All I can say is, if Irene actually did go to Florida at this point, it would be the biggest catastrophic failure in tropical WX forecasting in decades. And THAT is saying something. If it were to go into the GOM, I think that weather forecasting itself would come to an end. ;-)


It will be an amazing story of how the powerful ridge created record heat and drought in OK and TX but somehow could not block a hurricane from entering the GOM...
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Quoting Chucktown:


Yes, we are looking pretty good here now. As long as it gets to 32 N before 80 W, we are fine. Current NHC track has it only getting as far west as 77.2 W, which will put the center about 200 miles just east of CHS Saturday morning. If the track holds, very little impact if any will be seen here.

Isn't Charleston at approximately 32N 80W? Wouldn't that be close enough to feel effects? The NHC track has been right on for awhile now; so I am watchful - not worried. I will be even more "watchful" if it goes much farther west than 77W. However, I have a good amount of confidence in the NHC and you all are the BEST!
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216. MahFL
The watch is for coastal waters, not the actual land.
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GFS last four cycles, most recent red


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10873
Quoting SeaMule:
For two and half hours, Irene has headed in a straight dead wwnw to wnw heading, at about 11 miles an hour. so she has traversed about 30 miles

while this may be a temporary jog...it has certainly not wobbled a bit. heading on a straight line.

if it kicks north...ignore this. if it continues...

pucker up Florida.

I am NOT BUYING the models. It will trend more west.

Florida is NOT out of the woods..

imho...

and neither is the GOM.

the trough lifted out...the high is kicking further west (bermuda)
Wow. All I can say is, if Irene actually did go to Florida at this point, it would be the biggest catastrophic failure in tropical WX forecasting in decades. And THAT is saying something. If it were to go into the GOM, I think that weather forecasting itself would come to an end. ;-)
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212. MahFL
The eye has that inner blue ring of warmer clouds now, which is bad news, good news is it jogged NW on the last frame.

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It appears now to move more northerly and faster ...

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IT WOBBLED NORTH! AT THIS RATE IT WILL HIT BERMUDA!!!
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Quoting rkay1:
Is this guy for real? Really? Denial is scary!




Is this for real????

FLUS42 KMFL 240939
HWOMFL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
539 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-250045-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
539 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR HURRICANE IRENE...
...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PALM BEACH, BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST TODAY. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS
FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS UP 40 TO 50 MPH. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS REACHING 25 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE
TONIGHT.

WAVE: SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TONIGHT REACHING 8 TO 9 FEET BEFORE DAY BREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES: HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS. THIS, COMBINED ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS AND 105 TO 107 OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE
WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BUT
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IRENE WILL LIKELY BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA HAS
DIMINISHED, RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ADVISED TO
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES AS IRENE CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO PREPARE IF YOU HAVE
NOT ALREADY PREPARED FOR THIS HURRICANE SEASON. REFER TO
READYSOUTHFLORIDA.ORG AND READY.GOV FOR A COMPREHENSIVE LIST OF
HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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208. HiWay
If all the people from the Jersey Shore show go to the coast line and start fist pumping and displaying their spray tans Irene might get scared and run back out to sea.

Wait on second though she might get angry and turn hard left. Disregard...
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Quoting CCSoFLA79:
people keep saying jog to the west.... i just don't see it. Looks NW to me.


If you look at the last 4 frames on satellite, it was only a west or wnw movement for the past 2 hours. Eye has become a little ragged too so it's a little harder to tell but it surely isn't moving NW like it was a few hours ago.
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206. maeko
Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


I am so hoping this moves into Charleston, SC. So we can get some good impacts in Greensboro, NC. Hoping praying to god! We need the rain!


WTH! are you some kind of sadist?!
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205. Gorty
Quoting CCSoFLA79:
people keep saying jog to the west.... i just don't see it. Looks NW to me.


Looks to be just north of due west.
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The more west Irene goes the more of a coastal impact to NC and points beyond. Florida should be OK. NHC has done a pretty good job, overall.
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Quoting rkay1:
FLORIDIANS! What is with you people? Do you have some kind of weird fetish with Hurricanes? The storm is RIGHT on track.  There is not 1 model pointing remotely to FL --Actually most of the models barely having it hit SC anymore, let alone FL.  Let it go, its just annoying now. "OMG DID IT JUST WOBBLE WEST? WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR FL?!!"

haha yes we do! but not all of us are florida casters lol. some of us have actually been watching all of the model runs and KNOW that Irene will not be making any unexpected turns westward!
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people keep saying jog to the west.... i just don't see it. Looks NW to me.
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Quoting TruthCommish:
.

YOU have agreed with several posts predicting a Florida landfall. Please post that you were wrong AFTER is doesn't. Okay?


I haven't actually seen anyone say a Florida landfall. Just moving the wind fields a little closer than expected. 50-75 miles can make a big difference. The "first" Irene in the 90's was more than anyone on the coast expected. This one still bears keeping an eye on it for the next 12-36 hrs.
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198. Gorty
GFS SHIFTED WEST BY NEW RNGLAND... CLOSER TO THE HWRF AND GFDL. NOT LOOKING GOOD!

WILL THE OTHER MODELS STARTING SHIFTING WEST TOO? STAY TUNED!!
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Quoting wxobsvps:
Consider this scenario playing out where there is not an off-shore option.

For example, say you are in Mobile AL and there is tight model clustering to Pensacola. Surely you would remain vigilant in Mobile, even as far as Biloxi to the west and Panama City to the east.

It just makes sense to remain aware, despite model clusters. Consensus can change on altogether just as an individual model can. Point is that you are foolish if you think you are in the clear just because models have trended east past your location...there are a lot of days remaining for different trends.


That's similar to the difference between precision and accuracy. Things can be very precise, but that doesn't always mean accuracy is high.
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Quoting TruthCommish:
.

YOU have agreed with several posts predicting a Florida landfall. Please post that you were wrong AFTER is doesn't. Okay?


Will do. Just speculating about other track possibilities, simple as that. At least I'm not saying Texas better watch out! lol
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@Granpato4, Do you feel silly about having home insurance knowing that the likelihood may be slim that your house will be hit by lightning and burn down ? You now know how long it takes to get the shutters up and know that you have all the hardware. An occasional exercise of putting up the shutters is a good thing, especially if it has been a long time (or never) since you have put them up. It is a judgement call, and I have second guessed myself for putting mine up early, but I have never regretted doing so.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
saw a coast guard c130 3 times in a hr here in sarasota,are they part of recon??


They have been using a C-130 for synoptic sampling.
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Quoting Grandpato4:
Our local weather folks seem to think we won't get more than a few gusty winds with the current forecast track. I am not letting my guard down, but I feel a bit silly sitting in a house with hurricane shutters up right now.
What would be even sillier is not having them up and something blowing through your windows. Who cares what your neighbors think. Better safe than sorry:)
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Quoting E46Pilot:


Andrew was no surprise...we new days in advance he was coming.




Now the strength is another story. That sucker went from a 1 to a 4 overnight.


Actually from what I've read they had andrew hitting around jupiter before the ridge pushed him due west.
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Quoting rkay1:
FLORIDIANS! What is with you people? Do you have some kind of weird fetish with Hurricanes? The storm is RIGHT on track.  There is not 1 model pointing remotely to FL --Actually most of the models barely having it hit SC anymore, let alone FL.  Let it go, its just annoying now. "OMG DID IT JUST WOBBLE WEST? WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR FL?!!"


Yes, it is a little excitement in our otherwise boring lives.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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