Powerful Category 3 Irene enters the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:49 PM GMT on August 24, 2011

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Powerful Category 3 Hurricane Irene stormed through the Turks and Caicos Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding. On Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where half of the population of these islands live, winds reached a sustained 65 mph at a personal weather station at Pine Cay, and the pressure bottomed out at 989 mb. The eyewall of Irene missed the island, with the center of the storm passing about 60 miles to the southwest. The center of Irene passed about 60 miles to the northwest of Grand Inagua Island, and Category 1 hurricane conditions were probably experienced on that island. Damage in the Turks and Caicos is likely to be much less than the $50 - $200 million wrought by Category 4 Hurricane Ike of 2008, since Irene's eyewall missed populated islands.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.

Monday, Irene hit Puerto Rico as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds, but reached hurricane strength as it emerged into the Atlantic northwest of the capital of San Juan. One drowning death is being reported from the island, and the storm dumped up to 20 inches of rain in some areas. About 11% of the island was still without power this morning, and numerous roads were closed due to flooding and landslides. Irene did an estimated $17 million in damage to agriculture and $2 million to ports in Puerto Rico. Satellite estimates suggest that Irene has brought only 1 - 2 inches of rain to Haiti. With Irene now pulling away from Hispaniola, Haiti can expect only another 1 - 2 inches from the hurricane, and appears to have dodged a major bullet. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches were common across the Dominican Republic, where moderate flooding but no deaths occurred.


Track forecast for Irene
Continuing dropsonde missions by the NOAA jet have helped to significantly narrow the uncertainty in the 1 - 3 day forecasts from the computer models. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. However, the models still diverge considerably on their 4 - 5 days forecasts, and we don't know if Irene will plow up the mid-Atlantic coast into New Jersey, as the GFDL model is predicting, hit New England between Long Island, NY and Massachusetts, as the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF models are predicting, or miss the U.S. and hit Canada, as the NOGAPS model is predicting.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Latest data from the Hurricane Hunters shows that Irene has paused in its intensification cycle. A gap has opened in the eyewall, and the central pressure has remained constant at 956 - 957 mb over the past few hours. However, the hurricane is embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a Category 4 storm sometime in the next two days. Satellite loops show that Irene is well-organized, with excellent upper-level outflow, and impressive spiral banding.

Irene's impact on the Bahama Islands
Irene is making a direct hit on Crooked Island (population 350) in the Bahamas, and will continue west-northwest and hit Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700) late tonight. These unfortunate islands will bear the full brunt of Irene's 115+ mph winds and 8 - 13 foot storm surge, and suffer major damage that will take months to recover from. Major damage is also likely on Long Island (population 3000) and San Salvador Island (population 1000.) Shortly after midnight tonight, winds at the capital of Nassau, home to 70% of the population of the Bahamas, will rise above tropical storm force, and increase through the night. By late morning on Thursday, sustained winds will peak on Nassau at just below hurricane force, 60 - 70 mph. Nassau will miss the brunt of the storm, and I expect the airport should be able to re-open on Friday. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 60 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm, but Abaco Island to its east will likely experience Category 2 hurricane conditions Thursday afternoon. However, Abaco will probably miss the right front eyewall of Irene with the strongest winds and highest storm surge.


Figure 2. Wind distibution around Irene as of 1330 UTC (9:30am EDT) August 24, 2011. Irene was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds at the time. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors) extended over Crooked Island to the storm's northwest, and over Mayaguana Island to the east. Image credit: NOAA/AOML. Irene is a large storm, and its potential storm surge damage rated 3.9 on a scale of 0 to 6, with its wind damage potential rated at 2.5 on a scale of 0 to 6.

Irene's impact on the Southeast U.S.
Long-period ocean swells from Irene will reach the coast from Florida to North Carolina tonight, and continue to build as the storm approaches. The outermost rainbands of the hurricane will reach South Florida by Thursday morning, and spread over much of the eastern coastal portion of Florida during the day Thursday. If Irene follows the official NHC forecast through the Bahama Islands, the storm's expected radius of tropical storm-force winds of 130 - 170 miles will keep tropical storm conditions just off the east coast of Florida. Sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph can be expected along the coast of Florida during Irene's point of closest approach, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2" will be common along the coast. Georgia, which could use the rain, will get very little. It is unlikely any airport in Florida or Georgia will need to close for Irene.

Late Friday night or early Saturday morning, Irene's outer spiral bands will move over the southern coast of North Carolina and the northeastern portion of South Carolina, and tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph will arrive. Winds will steadily increase to hurricane force on the Outer Banks by Saturday night. The main damage from Irene in North Carolina will come from the storm's flooding rains of 4 - 12" that will fall in coastal areas. Fortunately, this region is under moderate to severe drought, so the damage will not be as severe as that experienced during Hurricane Floyd of 1999. Significant wind damage can be expected in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and considerable storm surge damage may occur along the shores of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. If Irene's eye misses making landfall in North Carolina, total damage from the storm should be less than $200 million, and could be considerably less than that.


Figure 3. Sea surface temperatures for August 24, 2011. Temperatures of 26°C (79°F) are typically needed for a hurricane to maintain its strength (black line). This boundary lies just off the southern coast of New Jersey this year, which is much farther north than usual.


Figure 4. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Monday morning, August 29, at 8am EDT. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Irene's impact on the mid-Atlantic and New England
The impact of Irene on the mid-Atlantic and New England is highly uncertain at this point, because we don't know if the core of the storm will miss the coast or not. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along a 100-mile swath just to the west of where the center tracks, and the worst wind and storm surge damage will occur to the east. If the core of Irene stays offshore, the mid-Atlantic and New England may escape with a few hundred million dollars in damage from flooding due to heavy rains and storm surge. If Irene hits Long Island or Southeast Massachusetts, the storm has the potential to be a $10 billion disaster. Irene is one of those rare storms that has the potential to make landfall in New England as a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. It is difficult for a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane crossing north of North Carolina to maintain that intensity, because wind shear rapidly increases and ocean temperatures plunge below the 26°C (79°F) level that can support a hurricane. We do expect wind shear to rapidly increase to a high 30 - 50 knots once Irene pushes north of Delaware, which should knock the storm down by at least 15 - 30 mph before it reaches New England. However, this year sea surface temperatures 1 - 3°F warmer than average extend along the East Coast from North Carolina to New York. Waters of at least 26°C extend all the way to Southern New Jersey, which will make it easier for Irene to maintain its strength much farther to the north than a hurricane usually can. During the month of July, ocean temperature off the mid-Atlantic coast (35°N - 40°N, 75°W - 70°W) averaged 2.6°F (1.45°C) above average, the second highest July ocean temperatures since record keeping began over a century ago (the record was 3.8°F above average, set in 2010.) These warm ocean temperatures will also make Irene a much wetter hurricane than is typical, since much more water vapor can evaporate into the air from record-warm ocean surfaces. The latest precipitation forecast from NOAA's Hydrological prediction center shows that Irene could dump over 8 inches of rain over coastal New England.


Figure 5. Soil moisture profiles from yesterday show that a region of very moist soils ranking in the top 1% in recorded history (dark green colors) lie over northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

Tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains will move into Eastern Virginia Saturday afternoon, and push northwards to Delaware and coastal Maryland by late Saturday night. Tropical moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere will also stream well ahead of Irene into New England on Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing what is called a "Predecessor Rain Event" (PRE). The Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia airports will be right at the edge of the heavy rain and high wind area, and it currently appears they will not have to close for an extended period. The Philadelphia and New York City airports may not be as lucky, and it is possible they will suffer extended closures Sunday morning and afternoon. By late Sunday night, Irene's rains will move north of New York City, allowing the airports to re-open. The highest potential for damaging fresh-water flooding is in northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is near record high levels, and there is nowhere for the rain to go (Figure 5.) Heavy rains of 4 - 12" are likely across all of coastal New England if Irene passes within 100 miles of shore.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave far out in the eastern Atlantic about 200 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, Invest 90L, is showing signs of organization. NHC is giving this disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. Several of our models do develop 90L into a tropical storm by early next week, but long-range models are showing that this system will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT today
I'll be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Wednesday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner, Tim Roche, and Angela Fritz will also be there. Listeners can email in or call in questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting miguel617:
I find it amusing how wishcasters watch a few frames of satellite images plus throw in some of their gut feeling and then make a prediction of how the hurricane is moving and then say the models are all wrong.

Folks, the models are generated using supercomputers, some being in the top 100 in the world. They take data from satellites, ocean buoys, air recon, global weather balloons, and after much processing, spit out their predictions.

Don't look like a fool thinking you can outdo a supercomputer using your armchair forecasting techniques.








I once had a gut feeling. But it just ended up being gas.
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Quoting surferjoe5899:
Question
How does the warm water of the Gulf Stream effect the Hurricane's path?



With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a Category 4 storm sometime in the next two days. - Jeff Masters
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Definitely concerned for my folks in Eastern Massachusetts. Sort of wish i could be home to witness this one if the track pans out. I let them know to start making preparations either today or tomorrow, when we should have a better handle on the track for the Northeast.

12Z HWRF
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436. 7544
Quoting WxLogic:
12Z CMC



hmmmm cmc agrees with the nam thats two bringing irene more west over andors iasland island now gfdl is next might be closer to so fla now with these two new runs not for a landfall but for stronger effects
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 17:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 17:03:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°33'N 74°09'W (22.55N 74.15W)
B. Center Fix Location: 205 miles (330 km) to the NNE (32°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,697m (8,848ft) at 700mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 34° at 80kts (From between the NNE and NE at ~ 92.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 954mb (28.17 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 116kts (~ 133.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:52:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 106kts (~ 122.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:12:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the NW (317°) from the flight level center
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434. Gorty
I am getting increasing concerned that the models are going to shift west. GFS started, the NAM and looks like the cmc... not looking good.
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If I was getting paid to forecast Irene I would be saying: It's probably going to be turning to the North soon.. but maybe not.. or it could just stall for a while.. and possible intensify.. and it should avoid Florida probably.. and if the High's do what they are forecasted to do, we should see the storm well within the current forecast track.. at least within the 200 miles of possible deviation.. all subject to the quality of the data I have been presented with for analysis and provided the ants keep their HAARPF turned down.. IMO
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Quoting GoWVU:


Just looked at that and dont like the picture....


HUH? what did i miss on an F5???
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 17:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 17:03:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°33'N 74°09'W (22.55N 74.15W)
B. Center Fix Location: 205 miles (330 km) to the NNE (32°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,697m (8,848ft) at 700mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 34° at 80kts (From between the NNE and NE at ~ 92.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 954mb (28.17 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 116kts (~ 133.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:52:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 106kts (~ 122.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:12:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the

look for the winds to be bumped to 120-125mph at the 2 pm advisory
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430. jpsb
Quoting reedzone:
Kinda lurking around.. I didn't forecast a Major for Long Island, just the same strength as NHC, waters are above average up there so the storm won't significantly weaken. Although these western wobbles and the ULL around the Carolinas has me questioning the models and NHC. Guess it's a wait and see.


I am a little worried about NYC and Long Island an NYC hit by a major would be very bad for them.
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Quoting Beachfoxx:
Not directly, but the impact from Katrina caused flooding & serious beach erosion along the FLORIDA PanHandle.


The Keys had a storm surge on the ocean side as it was crossing to the gulf. It was not pretty. Lots of flooding
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Quoting reedzone:
Kinda lurking around.. I didn't forecast a Major for Long Island, just the same strength as NHC, waters are above average up there so the storm won't significantly weaken. Although these western wobbles and the ULL around the Carolinas has me questioning the models and NHC. Guess it's a wait and see.


Interesting you say this Reed. What are your thoughts on the potential influencing low the NHS mentioned in the 1100 update? When do you suspect that to become a factor? Pre- or Post- OBX? These variables are the ones worrying me, living on the SE coast of NC. Even a "Jog" will have HUGE impacts on the crystal coast.

Thanks in advance
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Quoting FLWaterFront:
Joe Bastardi doesn't hype hurricane forecasts, that's for sure.


yes...we're fortunate to have such a calm voice amidst all the hyperbole
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Wow that bring it right up to SC, before a very sharp turn, interesting.


A bit closer compared to the 00Z runs. 18Z runs should have additional Drops injected into them as not all from what I believed got input on the 12Z runs so we'll see later on other do.
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wilmington, nc
my location 34.28 lat 77.93 long

85 F
1018 mb
55% r/h

Pressure still high here. no overt sign of trough.
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Quoting TruthCommish:


Maybe you should express your thoughts more accurately.


I very clearly indicated I was talking about the landfall in New Orleans and the affects in the Panhandle of Florida. If you can't read a paragraph and comprehend what it means that's not my problem. Funny how everyone that called me out only quoted a portion of the paragraph I wrote instead of the entire paragraph.
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422. DFWjc
Quoting SeaMule:
I'll give ya a prediction...wishcast schmishcast

Irene will head more on a wnw heading than anything else for the next 24...slow down...and start heading wwnw...

Look out Miami....pucker up!


now, let's hear all the people whine and tell me it ain't so!!! it is...

the high will build, her own strength will ignore the pull northward.

buwhahhahhahhaaaaa


I had the the slight brushing of East coast of Florida...about 170 miles off coast
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Quoting FLdewey:
Has anyone seen Reed?
missing in action as his forecast has pooped. Wait, I see he's around predicting doom for Long Island and points north, with a reservation that it could go further west. That's a reasonable forecast...just a tad or 100 tads away from the previously predicted doom for points from Miami to Savannah to SC.
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Quoting Grothar:


Good observation, I have been watching that myself



WOOO HOOO Grothar...glad u are here :)
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419. GoWVU
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Wow that bring it right up to SC, before a very sharp turn, interesting.


Just looked at that and dont like the picture....
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No, what I am saying is we had coastal flooding & erosion in Destin and the beaches on the panhandle from Katrina... some serious erosion, enough to damage some beachfront homes.
So as it has been said, everyone along the coast should remain alert.
Quoting Mucinex:

I think what he/she is trying to say is that Katrina did make landfall in Fort Lauderdale as a Cat1 before crossing the state and going into the GOM.
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Here's the latest microwave pass...



Southwest eyewall is still a little weak, and there are very strong secondary wind maximas spiraling all around the eye.
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Looks like the surge in the Chesapeake Bay is starting to show up on this model... ugh.

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Quoting 69Viking:


Not weather related and won't know whether that was a waste for another year or two.


^5 .... Ok back to Irene ...
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I find it amusing how wishcasters watch a few frames of satellite images plus throw in some of their gut feeling and then make a prediction of how the hurricane is moving and then say the models are all wrong.

Folks, the models are generated using supercomputers, some being in the top 100 in the world. They take data from satellites, ocean buoys, air recon, global weather balloons, and after much processing, spit out their predictions.

Don't look like a fool thinking you can outdo a supercomputer using your armchair forecasting techniques.






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Question
How does the warm water of the Gulf Stream effect the Hurricane's path?
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Pressure with Irene down to 954mb.
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410. SpFox
Amazing Irene!

Link
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Quoting Hhunter:
Bastardi predicts 150mph storm at North Carolina and a 125mph storm at second land fall in New England states
Joe Bastardi doesn't hype hurricane forecasts, that's for sure.
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Quoting TropicalXprt:


First off, 4 hours of heading due west is not a jog. Second, heading west is zero indication of a eye wall replacement cycle.
I didn't say WEST movement was, I said the "wobble" west is. And yes, it most certainly does. The coldest cloud tops to the w/sw of the eyewall continue to suggest eyewall replacement as there is another burst occuring on the outer ring located to the NE of the eye.
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Those who worry about the effects of a Cat 3 or 4 "brushing by" their location shouldn't be ridiculed. I do disaster relief work and saw damage way inland from Hurricane Isabel in North Carolina, long after the storm was "only" a Cat 1. Softened ground gives up the trees to tropical storm force winds, power lines go down, misery and suffering everywhere for weeks and months. Nothing to take lightly. That effect was felt in multiple states. Hurricane Ike surprised everyone with the severe damage inland as well. So anyone feeling bashed by critical comments shouldn't take it personally. These would be from someone who hasn't felt a storm personally and doesn't know how disastrous flooding and power outages and all the other perils these storms bring us.
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Hey Viking!
Yep, the Island is rather warm... we've had 91 - 93° readings in Rocky. The water is warmer than a bathtub!
Quoting 69Viking:


Hey Beachfoxx great to see you on here, yes it's been a long time! Let's hope none of these get in the Gulf this year, I was reading 89 degree water at Crab Island last weekend!
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Quoting WxLogic:
12Z CMC


Wow that bring it right up to SC, before a very sharp turn, interesting.
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Quoting marknmelb:


OK I'll ask a different question.. Why did we waste a draft choice on Ponder ???? LOL


Not weather related and won't know whether that was a waste for another year or two.
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Dropsonde in eye
954mb (28.17 inHg)
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Quoting DVG:
I was wondering about a couple things. First does the low east of Ga have to be demolished for the predicted effect of the troughs to take place?

Second, watching the eastern US infrared 2 loop, I see something and was wondering as to whether it's related to the bermuda high. At about 72 long and 37 lat extending to 55 long, there is a dark, I don't know what to call it except is it an air mass?

So is this dark area moving north part of the blocking atlantic ridge?


Good observation, I have been watching that myself

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fwiw...she looks to be plowing west of north west so i guess wnw right now
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Interesting that latest wobble of Irene from last 6 frames of the floater showing it going WNW. If that track continued it would be in WPB similar to 1200UTC BAMS model. It's probably just a wobble (we hope)
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Quoting 69Viking:
All you knuckleheads questioning me about Katrina and Florida I guess are missing the point where I'm talking about Katrina hitting New Orleans and us having coastal flooding in the PANHANDLE of Florida, pay attention to what you read and think before you post.


Maybe you should express your thoughts more accurately.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Don't even think it is physically possible for Irene to come much farther west, unless she "busts the trough" and "pumps the ridge"
,at the same time???she's a very freeky girl gets it from her momma,first you getthe...,ehh never mind,lol
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Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 17:27Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 23

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 24th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 22.5N 74.2W
Location: 201 miles (323 km) to the NNE (32°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
954mb (28.17 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 170° (from the S) 5 knots (6 mph)
1000mb -416m (-1365 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 276m (906 ft) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 24.5°C (76.1°F) 240° (from the WSW) 6 knots (7 mph)
850mb 1,020m (3,346 ft) 22.6°C (72.7°F) 21.1°C (70.0°F) 225° (from the SW) 3 knots (3 mph)
700mb 2,700m (8,858 ft) 16.4°C (61.5°F) 12.4°C (54.3°F) 225° (from the SW) 2 knots (2 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:03Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.
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395. jpsb
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Once this loop has finished loading, speed up using "Faster" and you will see it.


I like this

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/s atfloat.html

and the slight move west is plainly visible.
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12Z CMC
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Quoting yoboi:
does anyone have an image they can post when irene exited africa??


The 20% area is Irene before she developed.

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Quoting 69Viking:
All you knuckleheads questioning me about Katrina and Florida I guess are missing the point where I'm talking about Katrina hitting New Orleans and us having coastal flooding in the PANHANDLE of Florida, pay attention to what you read and think before you post.


OK I'll ask a different question.. Why did we waste a draft choice on Ponder ???? LOL
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Quoting wxobsvps:


would be great to know which model that is. without squinting.
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Quoting MrstormX:
Irene is just barely, barely West of where it should be. These things happen, you can't just expect it to go down the center line...relax.


Yes, it's pretty unlikely to hit Florida, but I certainly wouldn't be relaxing if I were in Nassau.

I think it has shifted west enough that Nassau is reasonably in danger.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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