Powerful Category 3 Irene enters the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:49 PM GMT on August 24, 2011

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Powerful Category 3 Hurricane Irene stormed through the Turks and Caicos Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding. On Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where half of the population of these islands live, winds reached a sustained 65 mph at a personal weather station at Pine Cay, and the pressure bottomed out at 989 mb. The eyewall of Irene missed the island, with the center of the storm passing about 60 miles to the southwest. The center of Irene passed about 60 miles to the northwest of Grand Inagua Island, and Category 1 hurricane conditions were probably experienced on that island. Damage in the Turks and Caicos is likely to be much less than the $50 - $200 million wrought by Category 4 Hurricane Ike of 2008, since Irene's eyewall missed populated islands.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.

Monday, Irene hit Puerto Rico as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds, but reached hurricane strength as it emerged into the Atlantic northwest of the capital of San Juan. One drowning death is being reported from the island, and the storm dumped up to 20 inches of rain in some areas. About 11% of the island was still without power this morning, and numerous roads were closed due to flooding and landslides. Irene did an estimated $17 million in damage to agriculture and $2 million to ports in Puerto Rico. Satellite estimates suggest that Irene has brought only 1 - 2 inches of rain to Haiti. With Irene now pulling away from Hispaniola, Haiti can expect only another 1 - 2 inches from the hurricane, and appears to have dodged a major bullet. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches were common across the Dominican Republic, where moderate flooding but no deaths occurred.


Track forecast for Irene
Continuing dropsonde missions by the NOAA jet have helped to significantly narrow the uncertainty in the 1 - 3 day forecasts from the computer models. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. However, the models still diverge considerably on their 4 - 5 days forecasts, and we don't know if Irene will plow up the mid-Atlantic coast into New Jersey, as the GFDL model is predicting, hit New England between Long Island, NY and Massachusetts, as the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF models are predicting, or miss the U.S. and hit Canada, as the NOGAPS model is predicting.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Latest data from the Hurricane Hunters shows that Irene has paused in its intensification cycle. A gap has opened in the eyewall, and the central pressure has remained constant at 956 - 957 mb over the past few hours. However, the hurricane is embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a Category 4 storm sometime in the next two days. Satellite loops show that Irene is well-organized, with excellent upper-level outflow, and impressive spiral banding.

Irene's impact on the Bahama Islands
Irene is making a direct hit on Crooked Island (population 350) in the Bahamas, and will continue west-northwest and hit Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700) late tonight. These unfortunate islands will bear the full brunt of Irene's 115+ mph winds and 8 - 13 foot storm surge, and suffer major damage that will take months to recover from. Major damage is also likely on Long Island (population 3000) and San Salvador Island (population 1000.) Shortly after midnight tonight, winds at the capital of Nassau, home to 70% of the population of the Bahamas, will rise above tropical storm force, and increase through the night. By late morning on Thursday, sustained winds will peak on Nassau at just below hurricane force, 60 - 70 mph. Nassau will miss the brunt of the storm, and I expect the airport should be able to re-open on Friday. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 60 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm, but Abaco Island to its east will likely experience Category 2 hurricane conditions Thursday afternoon. However, Abaco will probably miss the right front eyewall of Irene with the strongest winds and highest storm surge.


Figure 2. Wind distibution around Irene as of 1330 UTC (9:30am EDT) August 24, 2011. Irene was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds at the time. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors) extended over Crooked Island to the storm's northwest, and over Mayaguana Island to the east. Image credit: NOAA/AOML. Irene is a large storm, and its potential storm surge damage rated 3.9 on a scale of 0 to 6, with its wind damage potential rated at 2.5 on a scale of 0 to 6.

Irene's impact on the Southeast U.S.
Long-period ocean swells from Irene will reach the coast from Florida to North Carolina tonight, and continue to build as the storm approaches. The outermost rainbands of the hurricane will reach South Florida by Thursday morning, and spread over much of the eastern coastal portion of Florida during the day Thursday. If Irene follows the official NHC forecast through the Bahama Islands, the storm's expected radius of tropical storm-force winds of 130 - 170 miles will keep tropical storm conditions just off the east coast of Florida. Sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph can be expected along the coast of Florida during Irene's point of closest approach, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2" will be common along the coast. Georgia, which could use the rain, will get very little. It is unlikely any airport in Florida or Georgia will need to close for Irene.

Late Friday night or early Saturday morning, Irene's outer spiral bands will move over the southern coast of North Carolina and the northeastern portion of South Carolina, and tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph will arrive. Winds will steadily increase to hurricane force on the Outer Banks by Saturday night. The main damage from Irene in North Carolina will come from the storm's flooding rains of 4 - 12" that will fall in coastal areas. Fortunately, this region is under moderate to severe drought, so the damage will not be as severe as that experienced during Hurricane Floyd of 1999. Significant wind damage can be expected in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and considerable storm surge damage may occur along the shores of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. If Irene's eye misses making landfall in North Carolina, total damage from the storm should be less than $200 million, and could be considerably less than that.


Figure 3. Sea surface temperatures for August 24, 2011. Temperatures of 26°C (79°F) are typically needed for a hurricane to maintain its strength (black line). This boundary lies just off the southern coast of New Jersey this year, which is much farther north than usual.


Figure 4. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Monday morning, August 29, at 8am EDT. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Irene's impact on the mid-Atlantic and New England
The impact of Irene on the mid-Atlantic and New England is highly uncertain at this point, because we don't know if the core of the storm will miss the coast or not. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along a 100-mile swath just to the west of where the center tracks, and the worst wind and storm surge damage will occur to the east. If the core of Irene stays offshore, the mid-Atlantic and New England may escape with a few hundred million dollars in damage from flooding due to heavy rains and storm surge. If Irene hits Long Island or Southeast Massachusetts, the storm has the potential to be a $10 billion disaster. Irene is one of those rare storms that has the potential to make landfall in New England as a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. It is difficult for a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane crossing north of North Carolina to maintain that intensity, because wind shear rapidly increases and ocean temperatures plunge below the 26°C (79°F) level that can support a hurricane. We do expect wind shear to rapidly increase to a high 30 - 50 knots once Irene pushes north of Delaware, which should knock the storm down by at least 15 - 30 mph before it reaches New England. However, this year sea surface temperatures 1 - 3°F warmer than average extend along the East Coast from North Carolina to New York. Waters of at least 26°C extend all the way to Southern New Jersey, which will make it easier for Irene to maintain its strength much farther to the north than a hurricane usually can. During the month of July, ocean temperature off the mid-Atlantic coast (35°N - 40°N, 75°W - 70°W) averaged 2.6°F (1.45°C) above average, the second highest July ocean temperatures since record keeping began over a century ago (the record was 3.8°F above average, set in 2010.) These warm ocean temperatures will also make Irene a much wetter hurricane than is typical, since much more water vapor can evaporate into the air from record-warm ocean surfaces. The latest precipitation forecast from NOAA's Hydrological prediction center shows that Irene could dump over 8 inches of rain over coastal New England.


Figure 5. Soil moisture profiles from yesterday show that a region of very moist soils ranking in the top 1% in recorded history (dark green colors) lie over northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

Tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains will move into Eastern Virginia Saturday afternoon, and push northwards to Delaware and coastal Maryland by late Saturday night. Tropical moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere will also stream well ahead of Irene into New England on Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing what is called a "Predecessor Rain Event" (PRE). The Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia airports will be right at the edge of the heavy rain and high wind area, and it currently appears they will not have to close for an extended period. The Philadelphia and New York City airports may not be as lucky, and it is possible they will suffer extended closures Sunday morning and afternoon. By late Sunday night, Irene's rains will move north of New York City, allowing the airports to re-open. The highest potential for damaging fresh-water flooding is in northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is near record high levels, and there is nowhere for the rain to go (Figure 5.) Heavy rains of 4 - 12" are likely across all of coastal New England if Irene passes within 100 miles of shore.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave far out in the eastern Atlantic about 200 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, Invest 90L, is showing signs of organization. NHC is giving this disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. Several of our models do develop 90L into a tropical storm by early next week, but long-range models are showing that this system will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT today
I'll be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Wednesday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner, Tim Roche, and Angela Fritz will also be there. Listeners can email in or call in questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.

Jeff Masters

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590. 7544
looks like irene is moving north at this hour
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
09L/MH/I/C3
RI FLAG (off)
MARK
24.00n/76.00w forecast point





ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

What you are seeing on Satellite imagery is "trochoidal" oscillations which are common occurrences as convection waxes and wanes and rotates around a common center!! This does not mean a track more north or west necessarily. If you observe many satellite frames or take notice of the HH fixes you will see that Irene is moving in a basic NW direction over time!!


Agreed. Last vortex fix was 304 degrees from the earlier one, that one was 302 degrees from the next earlier, etc. "Trending" a little teeny tad more NW over time over the past 12 hours.
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I have seen alot of discussion on "wobbles" and their
effect on the overall track of the storm. Practically all Hurricanes "wobble" and this is taken into account when the NHS issues their discussion products. The heading given for the storm is the average of the wobbles over time....
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The models I've seen today are treating the low off the coast of SC/NC with a bit of Fujiwara Effect action, assuming Irene will make a little rotation east then north in a counter-clockwise fashion. That's interesting.
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Hey there foxx! Watching and sweating (not the storm, the heat) in Houston.
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Quoting AegirsGal:
I have family in Haverhill/Bradford area, and I have tried to impress upon them to pay attention to Irene's forecasted track.


Nice, I worked at a local ski area in Bradford for a few years. Also lived in Bradford when I was very young and my parents would tell me how Bob blew a big tree down in our yard. I was only 1 and a half years old at the time.

Here's the long range discussion from Taunton MA, very informative.


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
***HURRICANE IRENE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND TO
SOME DEGREE BUT ITS TRACK AND POTENTIAL HAZARDS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN***

THIS WEEKEND...
HURRICANE IRENE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND TO
SOME DEGREE...BUT ITS TRACK AND AFFECTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. WE ARE
STILL MORE THAN 96 HOURS AWAY FROM A POTENTIAL DIRECT IMPACT FROM
IRENE. THINK ABOUT ALL THE NOREASTERS OVER THE WINTER AND THE
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND IMPACTS EVEN INSIDE 60 HOURS. THE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR HEAVY RAIN/SIGNIFICANT FRESH WATER
FLOODING...ALONG WITH STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A STORM SURGE
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF IRENE WHICH REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REALLY SHOWS THE MODELS IN TWO GENERAL CAMPS.
THE FIRST GROUP IS CLUSTERED ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND INTO CT...WHILE
THE SECOND GROUP IS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE/ISLANDS. THEN
THERE ARE A FEW OUTLIERS THAT ARE EVEN FURTHER WEST AND/OR EAST OF
THE TWO MAIN GROUPS. IT IS EVIDENT THAT THERE HAS BEEN AN EASTWARD
SHIFT AMONGST THE 00Z GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS OR IF ITS JUST A MODEL
ADJUSTMENT.

THE SPREAD CONTINUES TO POINT TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW EXACTLY IRENE
WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS DO SHOW THIS BEHAVING
AS A CLASSIC TROPICAL SYSTEM IN OUR REGION. THAT MEANS THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN/SIGNIFICANT FRESH WATER FLOODING
WILL BE TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST STORM SURGE/COASTAL FLOODING TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER. NOW JUST BECAUSE YOU END UP TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK
DOES NOT MEAN THAT YOUR OUT OF THE WOODS FOR SOME COASTAL
FLOODING...THE ISSUES WOULD JUST BE WORST TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER. ESPECIALLY SINCE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WERE GOING
TO SEE VERY HIGH SEAS AND SWELL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS IRENE WILL IMPACT IN SOMEWAY ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WORST IF A TRACK FURTHER
WEST VERIFIES WITH LESSER IMPACTS IF THE EASTERN SOLUTIONS VERIFY
EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING. THERE IS EVEN A
LOW PROBABILITY THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO THE EAST WOULD CONFINE
THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL TO FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE 00Z GUIDANCE DID MAKE AN EASTWARD SHIFT
SO WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OR WAS JUST AN
ADJUSTMENT.
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Quoting Beachfoxx:
Yes, lots of us "old-timers" have gone AWOL... we only come out of hiding when the WX goes extreme.




So where do you hang out if not here? Email me if you don't want all the ignore list winners to see!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3130
Quoting Mucinex:


What I was talking about was this. ;)

Quoting CycloneBoy:Ummm, Katrina hit Florida...

369. Beachfoxx 5:24 PM GMT on August 24, 2011 +1
Not directly, but the impact from Katrina caused flooding & serious beach erosion along the FLORIDA PanHandle.





Oh and not to mention too that Katrina closed Hwy 98 between Destin and Fort Walton Beach due to water covering the road (but at least it didn't wash it away like Opal, Ivan, and Dennis did), but then again it doesn't take much these days for that to happen (even Ike did that when it was 250 miles away in the open Gulf).
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Quoting Thrawst:
Guys... Carl Parker for the TWC just said the SHIPS intensity model showed a 1 in 3 chance of Irene nearing Cat. 5 intensity sometime in the next 48 hours. Do any of you all have anything back this up? TIA :)


SHIPS

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 36% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 30% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
Quoting Neapolitan:

Funny, I just looked back through the NHC's advisory archive, and saw nothing to indicate that NHC said Katrina wouldn't be a threat to the Gulf. A sampling:

1) Here: "KATRINA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND
THEN RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE WARM GULF
OF MEXICO WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT KATRINA IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...WHICH COULD BE IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST. IN FACT...KATRINA WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS"

2) Here: "KATRINA IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS
SUGGESTED BY ALL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BRING KATRINA
TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION."

...and there are many others. Bottom line: while the NHC isn't infallible, the men and women working there no vastly more about TC forecasting than any simple blog visitor.


Yeah, uh, the NHC never stated Katrina would die over Florida...
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Quoting IceCoast:
12Z GFS high resolution. Much to close for comfort. At least the family is inland ~30 miles.







the last thing massachusetts needs is a hurricane......i have been working tornado/hail/wind claims up there for well over 3 months now.....and then the ice dam problem from winter....what massachusetts needs is a break for gosh sakes.....
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Quoting odinslightning:



speaking of katrina, remember what NHC/NOAA/TWC said after the cat 1 landfall across florida?

aaahh dont worry anyone in the GOM.....Katrina will die over land as you sleep....



lmfao...


but yet the word of NHC is gospel,.....right?

Funny, I just looked back through the NHC's advisory archive, and saw nothing to indicate that NHC said Katrina wouldn't be a threat to the Gulf. A sampling:

1) Here: "KATRINA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND
THEN RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE WARM GULF
OF MEXICO WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT KATRINA IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...WHICH COULD BE IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST. IN FACT...KATRINA WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS"

2) Here: "KATRINA IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS
SUGGESTED BY ALL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BRING KATRINA
TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION."

...and there are many others. Bottom line: while the NHC isn't infallible, the men and women working there no vastly more about TC forecasting than any simple blog visitor.
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Future Jose could become a hurricane as well...Looks like he will go out to sea, though.

By the way, Irene's equatorial outflow channel is crazy.

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Quoting WxLogic:


Pretty sure the tracks get smoothed out when you compared it with the "raw" output that we usually see on the FSU page, etc...


Not sure what you mean by smoothed out, there is a data point every six hours.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
Quoting Thrawst:
Guys... Carl Parker for the TWC just said the SHIPS intensity model showed a 1 in 3 chance of Irene nearing Cat. 5 intensity sometime in the next 48 hours. Do any of you all have anything back this up? TIA :)



SHIPS models may be picking up on the fact she is going to traverse the shallowest water in the gulf stream throughout the bahamas, the hottest water around for 1000's of miles.....
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Quoting rkay1:
I'm about 15minutes away from Marco



Jeez, get a room, will ya? j/k
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Quoting SCwannabe:


Consider the source...he read it off of a cue card...like he really knows


He overexaggerates anyway. Don't like him during hurricane season. Otherwise- he's ok.
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Quoting cheetaking:

It's wobbling back to the north now... take a look at the latest satellite.

What you are seeing on Satellite imagery is "trochoidal" oscillations which are common occurrences as convection waxes and wanes and rotates around a common center!! This does not mean a track more north or west necessarily. If you observe many satellite frames or take notice of the HH fixes you will see that Irene is moving in a basic NW direction over time!!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
Quoting Grandpato4:
It appears my area will only get sustained winds of about 40-50 MPH. Not so bad when a couple of days ago it was supposed to hit here as a major.


Did you get that assurance from the Chamber of Commerce? Remember that local media has conflicting interests of pleasing commercial interests that don't want to see business activity suffer. Sadly commercial interests come ahead of your safety these days.

That is a very large mean storm and you are in a very bad spot to be riding one out. Why take a chance with your life? Turn off the computer and take a drive up to Raleigh for a few days and be safe! We would like you to be safe and be back in here with us when the next storm rolls through.

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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
irene has kept moving 0.4 degrees north and 0.5 degrees west.. if this continues these should be the next set of coordinates:
23.2 74.8
23.6 75.4
24.0 75.9
24.4 76.4
24.8 76.9
The farthest west irene can get before moving north north west is 76.9 or 77 degrees west connect the dots from there and you can estimate a landfall area. this is not guranteed but is very consistent now



That means Charleston, SC is possible.
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Quoting Thrawst:
Guys... Carl Parker for the TWC just said the SHIPS intensity model showed a 1 in 3 chance of Irene nearing Cat. 5 intensity sometime in the next 48 hours. Do any of you all have anything back this up? TIA :)


Consider the source...he read it off of a cue card...like he really knows
Member Since: August 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 535
Quoting Gorty:
My NWS for me in western Mass and this is NOT for the coast:

Sunday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

As you can seem they are still uncertain for the rain and wind.


Wow it's quite cool up there at night.. Still in the upper 70's low 80's at night down here.. Guess we'll be getting into that late season pattern fairly soon..
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still hot here in Houston. ugh.
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Quoting IceCoast:


Ya definitely, but if you guy's end up on the Western side of the storm, heavy rainfall could be a huge problem for you. Regardless, Hurricane force winds in MA would do so much tree damage that people would likely be without power for 2+ weeks. I was without power for over two weeks in Northeast MA from the ice storm in 08.
I have family in Haverhill/Bradford area, and I have tried to impress upon them to pay attention to Irene's forecasted track.
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Yes, lots of us "old-timers" have gone AWOL... we only come out of hiding when the WX goes extreme.


Quoting 69Viking:


When I saw the crowd hanging out here now I kind of figured you had gone into hiding with Smcdavid, I think that was her handle, from Houston area if I remember right!
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
I don't know what's worse. The FL wishcasters or the people who CONSTANTLY complain about them. Seems the complainers outnumber the casters by far. Ignore and move on....



Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
Quoting 7544:
when u have a cat 4 right off your coast you cant let your gaurd down untill it passes you latitude that all


I live in Ft Lauderdale and my guard is down. I don't seethes coming here. The NHC is great at forecasting and something beyond crazy would have to happen for the forecast cone to change that dramatically.
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559. kipd
I have been watching hurricanes since the early 50s when all we got were long. and lat. points to plot on a map that came in the newspaper every year. There was really no indication of where they thought they would go. Lived down in Lee County ~ Ft. Myers Beach.
There is a pass south of Ft. Myers Beach, just before Lover's Key State Park, (used to be our private area when I was in high school), Called New Pass ~ that is where Donna came ashore. Blew out the barrier island.
It is fun now to predict what with all the tools available. The offical reports tend to be very conservative ~ seems to benefit wholesale and retail stores the most. I now live in NE florida at the beach and the county here has been evacuated 3 times in the past 15 years because of stormes that had no chance what so ever of landfall here.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
90L is very close to becoming TD10, if it's not already.





Very nice
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6.9 earthquake in Peru.
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556. Gorty
My NWS for me in western Mass and this is NOT for the coast:

Sunday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

As you can see, they are still uncertain for the rain and wind.
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12Z GFS high resolution. Much to close for comfort. At least the family is inland ~30 miles.



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2PM TWO

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT... OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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Wow, the real crazies come out when a storm that was supposed to pan out for a US landfall hit, sh*ts the bed. LOL.

I still think it will be a little more West than the center of the cone, but I have no factual information to back this up...therefore my opinion means nothing.

Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 520
Next stop "long island" Bahamas.

Irene may hit 2 differnt "Long Islands".
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Guys... Carl Parker for the TWC just said the SHIPS intensity model showed a 1 in 3 chance of Irene nearing Cat. 5 intensity sometime in the next 48 hours. Do any of you all have anything back this up? TIA :)
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lets see the next 2 or so sat frames to see if this jog north continues
Member Since: August 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
Quoting superweatherman:

What about like Allison.. a slow moving storm that just bring up rain slowly for 3or 4 days



i think what u all need is a very gentile rain for days and days :) whether that comes in the form of a dissapated t.d. that doesn't pack heavy rains or in a busting of the ridge and relief from the north, what y'all need is drizzle, not downpours :)
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Quoting HiWay:
Quite the random question here. Since the moon control the tides; do the phases of the moon have a significant role (if it is even known?) on the tracking of larger storms in the oceanic basins? If so which, if any, models take this into account?


I don't know about tracking, but Charleston is supposed to have VERY high tides this weekend...this causes beach erosion on its own...with a storm and surge and bad rips out there, it could be a lot worse.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3666



I have one concern after reviewing the WV and visibe loops of Irene. As of this time, I can see no evidence in the outer band cloud structure that she is feeling any weakness to the north, hence IMO she will not be making that hard NW turn as called for in the current NHC track. I would not be surprised to see Irene continue on this current WNW track for at least another 12 hours, until this next trough pulls her north.
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Upper Level Wind Analysis due out within the next 20 mins.

Have the Atlantic Ridge and Texas Ridge both continued to shift westward? We'll see....
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Not only does that last wobble look interesting, based on the intensity models, it seems to also be slightly ahead of schedule.

I would love to see graphics that compare projections to the actuals. I am guessing anyone who likes to armchair predict would
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


It hit SE Florida when it was a Cat 1.



speaking of katrina, remember what NHC/NOAA/TWC said after the cat 1 landfall across florida?

aaahh dont worry anyone in the GOM.....Katrina will die over land as you sleep....



lmfao...


but yet the word of NHC is gospel,.....right?
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I don't know what's worse. The FL wishcasters or the people who CONSTANTLY complain about them. Seems the complainers outnumber the casters by far. Ignore and move on....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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