Powerful Category 3 Irene enters the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:49 PM GMT on August 24, 2011

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Powerful Category 3 Hurricane Irene stormed through the Turks and Caicos Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding. On Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where half of the population of these islands live, winds reached a sustained 65 mph at a personal weather station at Pine Cay, and the pressure bottomed out at 989 mb. The eyewall of Irene missed the island, with the center of the storm passing about 60 miles to the southwest. The center of Irene passed about 60 miles to the northwest of Grand Inagua Island, and Category 1 hurricane conditions were probably experienced on that island. Damage in the Turks and Caicos is likely to be much less than the $50 - $200 million wrought by Category 4 Hurricane Ike of 2008, since Irene's eyewall missed populated islands.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.

Monday, Irene hit Puerto Rico as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds, but reached hurricane strength as it emerged into the Atlantic northwest of the capital of San Juan. One drowning death is being reported from the island, and the storm dumped up to 20 inches of rain in some areas. About 11% of the island was still without power this morning, and numerous roads were closed due to flooding and landslides. Irene did an estimated $17 million in damage to agriculture and $2 million to ports in Puerto Rico. Satellite estimates suggest that Irene has brought only 1 - 2 inches of rain to Haiti. With Irene now pulling away from Hispaniola, Haiti can expect only another 1 - 2 inches from the hurricane, and appears to have dodged a major bullet. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches were common across the Dominican Republic, where moderate flooding but no deaths occurred.


Track forecast for Irene
Continuing dropsonde missions by the NOAA jet have helped to significantly narrow the uncertainty in the 1 - 3 day forecasts from the computer models. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. However, the models still diverge considerably on their 4 - 5 days forecasts, and we don't know if Irene will plow up the mid-Atlantic coast into New Jersey, as the GFDL model is predicting, hit New England between Long Island, NY and Massachusetts, as the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF models are predicting, or miss the U.S. and hit Canada, as the NOGAPS model is predicting.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Latest data from the Hurricane Hunters shows that Irene has paused in its intensification cycle. A gap has opened in the eyewall, and the central pressure has remained constant at 956 - 957 mb over the past few hours. However, the hurricane is embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a Category 4 storm sometime in the next two days. Satellite loops show that Irene is well-organized, with excellent upper-level outflow, and impressive spiral banding.

Irene's impact on the Bahama Islands
Irene is making a direct hit on Crooked Island (population 350) in the Bahamas, and will continue west-northwest and hit Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700) late tonight. These unfortunate islands will bear the full brunt of Irene's 115+ mph winds and 8 - 13 foot storm surge, and suffer major damage that will take months to recover from. Major damage is also likely on Long Island (population 3000) and San Salvador Island (population 1000.) Shortly after midnight tonight, winds at the capital of Nassau, home to 70% of the population of the Bahamas, will rise above tropical storm force, and increase through the night. By late morning on Thursday, sustained winds will peak on Nassau at just below hurricane force, 60 - 70 mph. Nassau will miss the brunt of the storm, and I expect the airport should be able to re-open on Friday. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 60 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm, but Abaco Island to its east will likely experience Category 2 hurricane conditions Thursday afternoon. However, Abaco will probably miss the right front eyewall of Irene with the strongest winds and highest storm surge.


Figure 2. Wind distibution around Irene as of 1330 UTC (9:30am EDT) August 24, 2011. Irene was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds at the time. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors) extended over Crooked Island to the storm's northwest, and over Mayaguana Island to the east. Image credit: NOAA/AOML. Irene is a large storm, and its potential storm surge damage rated 3.9 on a scale of 0 to 6, with its wind damage potential rated at 2.5 on a scale of 0 to 6.

Irene's impact on the Southeast U.S.
Long-period ocean swells from Irene will reach the coast from Florida to North Carolina tonight, and continue to build as the storm approaches. The outermost rainbands of the hurricane will reach South Florida by Thursday morning, and spread over much of the eastern coastal portion of Florida during the day Thursday. If Irene follows the official NHC forecast through the Bahama Islands, the storm's expected radius of tropical storm-force winds of 130 - 170 miles will keep tropical storm conditions just off the east coast of Florida. Sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph can be expected along the coast of Florida during Irene's point of closest approach, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2" will be common along the coast. Georgia, which could use the rain, will get very little. It is unlikely any airport in Florida or Georgia will need to close for Irene.

Late Friday night or early Saturday morning, Irene's outer spiral bands will move over the southern coast of North Carolina and the northeastern portion of South Carolina, and tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph will arrive. Winds will steadily increase to hurricane force on the Outer Banks by Saturday night. The main damage from Irene in North Carolina will come from the storm's flooding rains of 4 - 12" that will fall in coastal areas. Fortunately, this region is under moderate to severe drought, so the damage will not be as severe as that experienced during Hurricane Floyd of 1999. Significant wind damage can be expected in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and considerable storm surge damage may occur along the shores of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. If Irene's eye misses making landfall in North Carolina, total damage from the storm should be less than $200 million, and could be considerably less than that.


Figure 3. Sea surface temperatures for August 24, 2011. Temperatures of 26°C (79°F) are typically needed for a hurricane to maintain its strength (black line). This boundary lies just off the southern coast of New Jersey this year, which is much farther north than usual.


Figure 4. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Monday morning, August 29, at 8am EDT. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Irene's impact on the mid-Atlantic and New England
The impact of Irene on the mid-Atlantic and New England is highly uncertain at this point, because we don't know if the core of the storm will miss the coast or not. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along a 100-mile swath just to the west of where the center tracks, and the worst wind and storm surge damage will occur to the east. If the core of Irene stays offshore, the mid-Atlantic and New England may escape with a few hundred million dollars in damage from flooding due to heavy rains and storm surge. If Irene hits Long Island or Southeast Massachusetts, the storm has the potential to be a $10 billion disaster. Irene is one of those rare storms that has the potential to make landfall in New England as a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. It is difficult for a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane crossing north of North Carolina to maintain that intensity, because wind shear rapidly increases and ocean temperatures plunge below the 26°C (79°F) level that can support a hurricane. We do expect wind shear to rapidly increase to a high 30 - 50 knots once Irene pushes north of Delaware, which should knock the storm down by at least 15 - 30 mph before it reaches New England. However, this year sea surface temperatures 1 - 3°F warmer than average extend along the East Coast from North Carolina to New York. Waters of at least 26°C extend all the way to Southern New Jersey, which will make it easier for Irene to maintain its strength much farther to the north than a hurricane usually can. During the month of July, ocean temperature off the mid-Atlantic coast (35°N - 40°N, 75°W - 70°W) averaged 2.6°F (1.45°C) above average, the second highest July ocean temperatures since record keeping began over a century ago (the record was 3.8°F above average, set in 2010.) These warm ocean temperatures will also make Irene a much wetter hurricane than is typical, since much more water vapor can evaporate into the air from record-warm ocean surfaces. The latest precipitation forecast from NOAA's Hydrological prediction center shows that Irene could dump over 8 inches of rain over coastal New England.


Figure 5. Soil moisture profiles from yesterday show that a region of very moist soils ranking in the top 1% in recorded history (dark green colors) lie over northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

Tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains will move into Eastern Virginia Saturday afternoon, and push northwards to Delaware and coastal Maryland by late Saturday night. Tropical moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere will also stream well ahead of Irene into New England on Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing what is called a "Predecessor Rain Event" (PRE). The Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia airports will be right at the edge of the heavy rain and high wind area, and it currently appears they will not have to close for an extended period. The Philadelphia and New York City airports may not be as lucky, and it is possible they will suffer extended closures Sunday morning and afternoon. By late Sunday night, Irene's rains will move north of New York City, allowing the airports to re-open. The highest potential for damaging fresh-water flooding is in northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is near record high levels, and there is nowhere for the rain to go (Figure 5.) Heavy rains of 4 - 12" are likely across all of coastal New England if Irene passes within 100 miles of shore.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave far out in the eastern Atlantic about 200 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, Invest 90L, is showing signs of organization. NHC is giving this disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. Several of our models do develop 90L into a tropical storm by early next week, but long-range models are showing that this system will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT today
I'll be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Wednesday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner, Tim Roche, and Angela Fritz will also be there. Listeners can email in or call in questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting FefiBrevard:
i've posting a couple of days ago wondering if i should prepare myself for Irene. which i did. im in brevard county, cocoa area. if you are worried that you think this thing is heading to florida, go get prepared. just keep up to date on your local mets, and firgure it out what you should do. and for everyone else bashing, and ripping each other by who comment what, and who said this, let it go. everyone has their right for an opinion, so just relax, prepare for the worst as if it's heading your way, and just be prepare. and hey, im pregnant and not freaking out. thank you all for great input on info and map things, which i am still learning about. :) ya'll have an awesome day.


Hello neighbor. Several of us from Brevard were discussing this a couple of hours ago and we agree totally.
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2nd trough "should" be enough to erode that ridge.


But.....

Still not comforting to watch the gap closing.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
I really enjoy reading a blog where the NOGAPS was mentioned after previous blogs about 1-3 and 4-5 day path discrepancies.

Really? NOGAPS isn't one of the "big 4" right?

Reading these blogs can sometimes cause someone to wonder if this is more social interaction with everyone's best guesses? I am no pro and I enjoy shooting the breeze but I am awfully concerned about the people in NC.

Don't get me wrong, I don't wish, fish, or west cast but if it starts looking more and more like a Wilmington NC landfall, then lets cut to the chase and stop wishing away so the good folks of NC can prepare.
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Quoting Beachfoxx:
Not directly, but the impact from Katrina caused flooding & serious beach erosion along the FLORIDA PanHandle.
As Katrina was traveling westward, she skirted the North side of the Keys and was forcasted as a TS. While I was at work, she was a Cat 1 in the harbor. I had to walk home in thigh deep water. So yes Katrina impacted Florida.
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Quoting nash28:
Just checked the updated steering for Irene. The ST ridge has nudged the western periphery further W.

Gap is closing.


according to the map just above your comment it looks pretty much closed...will it reopen or will the track change is the question now
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
cAN some post 12z gfdl please n tia..
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I have your evidence. On her heading on Monday, Irene would be somewhere south of Andros. Only way it could end up over Crooked Island right now is because it's rounding the high into the weakness.


Well, it's already move NW again. So much for that theory. DOH! ;-)
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
UKMET Office


HURRICANE IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.1N 73.3W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092011



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 24.08.2011 22.1N 73.3W INTENSE

00UTC 25.08.2011 23.3N 75.2W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 25.08.2011 24.9N 76.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 26.08.2011 26.8N 77.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 26.08.2011 28.9N 78.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 27.08.2011 30.6N 78.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.08.2011 32.2N 77.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 28.08.2011 33.9N 77.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.08.2011 35.6N 76.4W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 29.08.2011 37.5N 74.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.08.2011 40.0N 72.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.08.2011 43.7N 69.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.08.2011 49.0N 64.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



Nrt... are there time comparison in tracks like the GFS but for UKM?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Thrawst. I heard some guy call in to Wendell Jones' radio show to ask if Irene was a cat 4 now. He insisted that Jones call the met office and check it out, because somebody on a US station was reporting that an ABACONIAN radio station was broadcasting that... lol

Amazing how information can get distorted.

I'm hoping we don't even get to cat 4, much less cat 5....

The ECMWF and GFDL as well as the HWRF have been stating something at CAT 5 or just below it on the strong CAT 4 end.
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Zap! How ya doing, son?!
Member Since: February 2, 2009 Posts: 21 Comments: 1464
WOW! Atlantic Ridge continues to build west, while the Texas ridge moves slightly westward again. East coast watch out. ATL Ridge looking pretty strong and has been keeping the trough up north, and not digging down just yet. Will it even be able to pick up Irene? Ahh, so many questions... lol

Look at Wind Analysis below...

At 12Z:


At 15Z:


Currently at 18Z:
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
Looking at the position fix at 2 PM, it seems that Irene could be a hair west of the forecast track, with the next forecast point looking rather NNW of the fix.

Anyone else anticipating a slight westward adjustment to the NHC track at 5?
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Quoting angiest:


Imagine power disruptions as with Ike but with this heat returning afterwards.
Ugh, let's not continue that line of thinking at all. LalalalalalaIcan'thearyoulalalalalala
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well odd thing is I accidentally stated that Irene was about to hit Crooked Island but was actually talking about Great Angua Island; however, I guess I was just a few hours early.
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676. 7544
when do the new sterring maps come out tia
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Quoting Thrawst:
Guys... Carl Parker for the TWC just said the SHIPS intensity model showed a 1 in 3 chance of Irene nearing Cat. 5 intensity sometime in the next 48 hours. Do any of you all have anything back this up? TIA :)
Hey, Thrawst. I heard some guy call in to Wendell Jones' radio show to ask if Irene was a cat 4 now. He insisted that Jones call the met office and check it out, because somebody on a US station was reporting that an ABACONIAN radio station was broadcasting that... lol

Amazing how information can get distorted.

I'm hoping we don't even get to cat 4, much less cat 5....
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glad to see its not moving wnw anymore, but my butt won't be unclinched until it passes florida. i've seen too many storms do wierd things. lol! i hope all on the east coast stay safe.
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Dupe.
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Sorry you had damage... I was just trying to point out to some that although a Cane is a long distance away, coastal areas can be impacted dramatically. After Katrina crossed over & made her path to LA, those of us here on FL Panhandle had flooding & erosion to deal with.
As many veterans of storms past know these storms can wreck havoc for hundreds of miles, including inland areas...
Quoting zoomiami:


Katrina came directly across North Dade, took a left, mosied through Dade County and decided it didn't like the keys and left.

And, as it was twisting and turning, my house was on the turn point.

3 sets of doors blown in, about a foot of water in the upstair rooms, to say nothing of the rest of the outside stuff that didn't count enough to worry about it.
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671. gecko
Quoting tiggeriffic:


pretty much hit the nail on the head...esp if it is an oak or magnolia tree...some are sooooo bad that the power lines are now imbedded in the limbs and it is correct that you must have a permit to cut any branch over 6 inches...just went thru that last year with 2 oak trees in my yard...the trees down hwy 61 toward summerville are like driving thru tunnels on the road...lines embedded in them...we do NOT need a storm like Irene


It doesn't freeze there, I'm really very surprised the lines aren't just buried. Well, the deep freeze is the reason our muni says ours can't be buried, but that's right after an ice storm takes down the lines.
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Quoting yonzabam:


You have overhead power lines in cities? Here, in the UK, they're only overhead in some rural areas. It towns, they're buried.


when you live at and below sea level...everything is overhead...not only that...the marshes, etc, all salt water which would destroy the lines...hazzard of living here
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
Quoting bahamacast:
Im on Great Exuma and it's going down hill very fast gust to 55 mph.


Best of luck.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Future Jose could become a hurricane as well...Looks like he will go out to sea, though.

By the way, Irene's equatorial outflow channel is crazy.



Wow, yeah.


Do you think that ULL off the Carolinas is having any effect on Irene? Perhaps making the weakness a little... stronger?
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Just checked the updated steering for Irene. The ST ridge has nudged the western periphery further W.

Gap is closing.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
NEW STEERING


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we may have a cat 4 by sundown....


btw sorry about the comment about nhc on katrina. appears my info was wrong. i don't know why i remember or believe that was said, it may have been another source that said it would die and not reform after making cat 1 landfall due to ground shear. i do apologize for being mistaken.

please also understand it is complacency that scares me. how people in south florida can be so confident as to not prepare and completely write off a major hurricane 5.5 degrees off their shoreline is beyond me. i don't get upset for any reason other than i care about you all, and i don't want people being spooked when there is no problem; conversely i want people to heed warning and not trust a bloody box of magnet on and off switches with their life (and the life of loved ones (including pets) and cherished items that cant be replaced).
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:


I live in Houston as well and the NWS is now saying the high Friday is 107! If we had another Ike, not only would it cause mass flooding, but just imagine the amount of trees down from Ike and multiply that by 2 or 3 and that is what you are looking at. The soil here is so dry and all the Trees are extremely dry. If you have sustained 100-110 mph winds for a few hours every tree will be destroyed. Instead of being without power for 2-3 weeks after Ike it would me months before they could get all the lines back up. With this Heat, I will gladly pass on that. We do need week TS to come in here though and drop about 10-15 inches of rain in 2 days. It would cause some flooding but it won't be near as bad as what we have seen in the past!


Imagine power disruptions as with Ike but with this heat returning afterwards.
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:


I live in Houston as well and the NWS is now saying the high Friday is 107! If we had another Ike, not only would it cause mass flooding, but just imagine the amount of trees down from Ike and multiply that by 2 or 3 and that is what you are looking at. The soil here is so dry and all the Trees are extremely dry. If you have sustained 100-110 mph winds for a few hours every tree will be destroyed. Instead of being without power for 2-3 weeks after Ike it would me months before they could get all the lines back up. With this Heat, I will gladly pass on that. We do need week TS to come in here though and drop about 10-15 inches of rain in 2 days. It would cause some flooding but it won't be near as bad as what we have seen in the past!


Yeah, we do need something that is for sure. But, because we need it,it probably won't work out that way because that is how it usually goes.

With that said, we do not need a major one....
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Quoting FefiBrevard:
i've posting a couple of days ago wondering if i should prepare myself for Irene. which i did. im in brevard county, cocoa area. if you are worried that you think this thing is heading to florida, go get prepared. just keep up to date on your local mets, and firgure it out what you should do. and for everyone else bashing, and ripping each other by who comment what, and who said this, let it go. everyone has their right for an opinion, so just relax, prepare for the worst as if it's heading your way, and just be prepare. and hey, im pregnant and not freaking out. thank you all for great input on info and map things, which i am still learning about. :) ya'll have an awesome day.



+1000

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661. 7544
Quoting NJcat3cane:
north jog was very short went back to a nw wobble now



yep
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elbow cay roots go all the way back to the revolutionary war settled by escaping royalist from s carol.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4883
659. AVL
Quoting E46Pilot:
I disagree with it strengthening any more, Its coming into some dry air to the north, as well as some shearing to the north

5-10 knots isn't much in the way of shear...
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Quoting zoomiami:


Yep -- pulled up in front of my house just as the rains started -- was not a happy camper.

Yep. I had to drag my Mom out of Steinmart. They were having a sale and boy was she mad.

"It's just a little windy! The power will come back on in a minute!"
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Quoting pottery:
It must be Scary as Crap on Crooked Island right now.....
Prayers for the people there.
Im on Great Exuma and it's going down hill very fast gust to 55 mph.
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Hey Beachfoxx, Oreodog -- it's like a 2005 reunion around here!
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
Quoting GetReal:



I have one concern after reviewing the WV and visibe loops of Irene. As of this time, I can see no evidence in the outer band cloud structure that she is feeling any weakness to the north, hence IMO she will not be making that hard NW turn as called for in the current NHC track. I would not be surprised to see Irene continue on this current WNW track for at least another 12 hours, until this next trough pulls her north.
I have your evidence. On her heading on Monday, Irene would be somewhere south of Andros. Only way it could end up over Crooked Island right now is because it's rounding the high into the weakness.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Here's a short video of Irene from her formative stage until now:



Interesting. TY.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


pretty much hit the nail on the head...esp if it is an oak or magnolia tree...some are sooooo bad that the power lines are now imbedded in the limbs and it is correct that you must have a permit to cut any branch over 6 inches...just went thru that last year with 2 oak trees in my yard...the trees down hwy 61 toward summerville are like driving thru tunnels on the road...lines embedded in them...we do NOT need a storm like Irene


You have overhead power lines in cities? Here, in the UK, they're only overhead in some rural areas. It towns, they're buried.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2955
Quoting nash28:
Afternoon all.

Once again, had another OPCON mtg here at work for the "just in case." Better to be prepared just in case Irene decides to not take a sharp turn to the N.


yeah....glad they are on top of things but doesn't make me feel better about that TURN lol...makes ya wonder does someone up high know something we dont lol...btw...hi Nash
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
i've posting a couple of days ago wondering if i should prepare myself for Irene. which i did. im in brevard county, cocoa area. if you are worried that you think this thing is heading to florida, go get prepared. just keep up to date on your local mets, and firgure it out what you should do. and for everyone else bashing, and ripping each other by who comment what, and who said this, let it go. everyone has their right for an opinion, so just relax, prepare for the worst as if it's heading your way, and just be prepare. and hey, im pregnant and not freaking out. thank you all for great input on info and map things, which i am still learning about. :) ya'll have an awesome day.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
Ice Coast- thanks for posting that it gives me something to reference while trying to convincing them to prepare.
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649. wpb
12zgfdl very close to the cape
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north jog was very short went back to a nw wobble now
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Quoting Ryuujin:


What terrifies me is that Irene will go just west enough to nick OBX and head straight into the NYC/Boston/DC metro area. Generally the southerners are more prepared for this, versus the New Englanders.


Read the part that I added on to that answer.

Anyway, I'm out for a while. Take care, everyone.
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UKMET Office


HURRICANE IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.1N 73.3W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092011



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 24.08.2011 22.1N 73.3W INTENSE

00UTC 25.08.2011 23.3N 75.2W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 25.08.2011 24.9N 76.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 26.08.2011 26.8N 77.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 26.08.2011 28.9N 78.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 27.08.2011 30.6N 78.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.08.2011 32.2N 77.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 28.08.2011 33.9N 77.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.08.2011 35.6N 76.4W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 29.08.2011 37.5N 74.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.08.2011 40.0N 72.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.08.2011 43.7N 69.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.08.2011 49.0N 64.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11271
ATCF 1800z update:

AL, 09, 2011082418, , BEST, 0, 227N, 743W, 105, 954, HU, 64, NEQ, 50, 45, 25, 40, 1008, 300, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRENE, D,
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Quoting odinslightning:




the last thing massachusetts needs is a hurricane......i have been working tornado/hail/wind claims up there for well over 3 months now.....and then the ice dam problem from winter....what massachusetts needs is a break for gosh sakes.....


I believe it. Definitely some unusual severe storms this summer, especially in Western MA. The whole year has been unusual. Never saw so much snow in my life in the winter. They had no where to put it. So ya, hopefully Irene avoid us..
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elbow_Cay
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4883
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting Grandpato4:


Believe me, I am watching the news and this site all day. If I feel like I may be in danger I will leave. If water gets under the house I can deal with that as long as it doesn't get too high. They aren't even calling for coastal flooding yet.


grandpa here what you can look for if IRENE passes like 75 miles east of nassau or closer then its time to BOARD UP AND GET OUT...this will give you a good idea that the trof is not as strong as these models think it is...i would watch for that you still have plenty of time before that happens...
Member Since: June 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 896
Quoting superweatherman:
Does anyone have a clue when this High pressure in Texas may move or come to an end... 105F this weekend in Houston...We need a Hurricane over hear.. at this point i don't care if we have another Ike.


I live in Houston as well and the NWS is now saying the high Friday is 107! If we had another Ike, not only would it cause mass flooding, but just imagine the amount of trees down from Ike and multiply that by 2 or 3 and that is what you are looking at. The soil here is so dry and all the Trees are extremely dry. If you have sustained 100-110 mph winds for a few hours every tree will be destroyed. Instead of being without power for 2-3 weeks after Ike it would me months before they could get all the lines back up. With this Heat, I will gladly pass on that. We do need week TS to come in here though and drop about 10-15 inches of rain in 2 days. It would cause some flooding but it won't be near as bad as what we have seen in the past!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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