Powerful Category 3 Irene enters the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:49 PM GMT on August 24, 2011

Share this Blog
20
+

Powerful Category 3 Hurricane Irene stormed through the Turks and Caicos Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding. On Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where half of the population of these islands live, winds reached a sustained 65 mph at a personal weather station at Pine Cay, and the pressure bottomed out at 989 mb. The eyewall of Irene missed the island, with the center of the storm passing about 60 miles to the southwest. The center of Irene passed about 60 miles to the northwest of Grand Inagua Island, and Category 1 hurricane conditions were probably experienced on that island. Damage in the Turks and Caicos is likely to be much less than the $50 - $200 million wrought by Category 4 Hurricane Ike of 2008, since Irene's eyewall missed populated islands.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.

Monday, Irene hit Puerto Rico as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds, but reached hurricane strength as it emerged into the Atlantic northwest of the capital of San Juan. One drowning death is being reported from the island, and the storm dumped up to 20 inches of rain in some areas. About 11% of the island was still without power this morning, and numerous roads were closed due to flooding and landslides. Irene did an estimated $17 million in damage to agriculture and $2 million to ports in Puerto Rico. Satellite estimates suggest that Irene has brought only 1 - 2 inches of rain to Haiti. With Irene now pulling away from Hispaniola, Haiti can expect only another 1 - 2 inches from the hurricane, and appears to have dodged a major bullet. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches were common across the Dominican Republic, where moderate flooding but no deaths occurred.


Track forecast for Irene
Continuing dropsonde missions by the NOAA jet have helped to significantly narrow the uncertainty in the 1 - 3 day forecasts from the computer models. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. However, the models still diverge considerably on their 4 - 5 days forecasts, and we don't know if Irene will plow up the mid-Atlantic coast into New Jersey, as the GFDL model is predicting, hit New England between Long Island, NY and Massachusetts, as the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF models are predicting, or miss the U.S. and hit Canada, as the NOGAPS model is predicting.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Latest data from the Hurricane Hunters shows that Irene has paused in its intensification cycle. A gap has opened in the eyewall, and the central pressure has remained constant at 956 - 957 mb over the past few hours. However, the hurricane is embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a Category 4 storm sometime in the next two days. Satellite loops show that Irene is well-organized, with excellent upper-level outflow, and impressive spiral banding.

Irene's impact on the Bahama Islands
Irene is making a direct hit on Crooked Island (population 350) in the Bahamas, and will continue west-northwest and hit Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700) late tonight. These unfortunate islands will bear the full brunt of Irene's 115+ mph winds and 8 - 13 foot storm surge, and suffer major damage that will take months to recover from. Major damage is also likely on Long Island (population 3000) and San Salvador Island (population 1000.) Shortly after midnight tonight, winds at the capital of Nassau, home to 70% of the population of the Bahamas, will rise above tropical storm force, and increase through the night. By late morning on Thursday, sustained winds will peak on Nassau at just below hurricane force, 60 - 70 mph. Nassau will miss the brunt of the storm, and I expect the airport should be able to re-open on Friday. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 60 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm, but Abaco Island to its east will likely experience Category 2 hurricane conditions Thursday afternoon. However, Abaco will probably miss the right front eyewall of Irene with the strongest winds and highest storm surge.


Figure 2. Wind distibution around Irene as of 1330 UTC (9:30am EDT) August 24, 2011. Irene was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds at the time. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors) extended over Crooked Island to the storm's northwest, and over Mayaguana Island to the east. Image credit: NOAA/AOML. Irene is a large storm, and its potential storm surge damage rated 3.9 on a scale of 0 to 6, with its wind damage potential rated at 2.5 on a scale of 0 to 6.

Irene's impact on the Southeast U.S.
Long-period ocean swells from Irene will reach the coast from Florida to North Carolina tonight, and continue to build as the storm approaches. The outermost rainbands of the hurricane will reach South Florida by Thursday morning, and spread over much of the eastern coastal portion of Florida during the day Thursday. If Irene follows the official NHC forecast through the Bahama Islands, the storm's expected radius of tropical storm-force winds of 130 - 170 miles will keep tropical storm conditions just off the east coast of Florida. Sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph can be expected along the coast of Florida during Irene's point of closest approach, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2" will be common along the coast. Georgia, which could use the rain, will get very little. It is unlikely any airport in Florida or Georgia will need to close for Irene.

Late Friday night or early Saturday morning, Irene's outer spiral bands will move over the southern coast of North Carolina and the northeastern portion of South Carolina, and tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph will arrive. Winds will steadily increase to hurricane force on the Outer Banks by Saturday night. The main damage from Irene in North Carolina will come from the storm's flooding rains of 4 - 12" that will fall in coastal areas. Fortunately, this region is under moderate to severe drought, so the damage will not be as severe as that experienced during Hurricane Floyd of 1999. Significant wind damage can be expected in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and considerable storm surge damage may occur along the shores of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. If Irene's eye misses making landfall in North Carolina, total damage from the storm should be less than $200 million, and could be considerably less than that.


Figure 3. Sea surface temperatures for August 24, 2011. Temperatures of 26°C (79°F) are typically needed for a hurricane to maintain its strength (black line). This boundary lies just off the southern coast of New Jersey this year, which is much farther north than usual.


Figure 4. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Monday morning, August 29, at 8am EDT. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Irene's impact on the mid-Atlantic and New England
The impact of Irene on the mid-Atlantic and New England is highly uncertain at this point, because we don't know if the core of the storm will miss the coast or not. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along a 100-mile swath just to the west of where the center tracks, and the worst wind and storm surge damage will occur to the east. If the core of Irene stays offshore, the mid-Atlantic and New England may escape with a few hundred million dollars in damage from flooding due to heavy rains and storm surge. If Irene hits Long Island or Southeast Massachusetts, the storm has the potential to be a $10 billion disaster. Irene is one of those rare storms that has the potential to make landfall in New England as a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. It is difficult for a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane crossing north of North Carolina to maintain that intensity, because wind shear rapidly increases and ocean temperatures plunge below the 26°C (79°F) level that can support a hurricane. We do expect wind shear to rapidly increase to a high 30 - 50 knots once Irene pushes north of Delaware, which should knock the storm down by at least 15 - 30 mph before it reaches New England. However, this year sea surface temperatures 1 - 3°F warmer than average extend along the East Coast from North Carolina to New York. Waters of at least 26°C extend all the way to Southern New Jersey, which will make it easier for Irene to maintain its strength much farther to the north than a hurricane usually can. During the month of July, ocean temperature off the mid-Atlantic coast (35°N - 40°N, 75°W - 70°W) averaged 2.6°F (1.45°C) above average, the second highest July ocean temperatures since record keeping began over a century ago (the record was 3.8°F above average, set in 2010.) These warm ocean temperatures will also make Irene a much wetter hurricane than is typical, since much more water vapor can evaporate into the air from record-warm ocean surfaces. The latest precipitation forecast from NOAA's Hydrological prediction center shows that Irene could dump over 8 inches of rain over coastal New England.


Figure 5. Soil moisture profiles from yesterday show that a region of very moist soils ranking in the top 1% in recorded history (dark green colors) lie over northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

Tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains will move into Eastern Virginia Saturday afternoon, and push northwards to Delaware and coastal Maryland by late Saturday night. Tropical moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere will also stream well ahead of Irene into New England on Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing what is called a "Predecessor Rain Event" (PRE). The Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia airports will be right at the edge of the heavy rain and high wind area, and it currently appears they will not have to close for an extended period. The Philadelphia and New York City airports may not be as lucky, and it is possible they will suffer extended closures Sunday morning and afternoon. By late Sunday night, Irene's rains will move north of New York City, allowing the airports to re-open. The highest potential for damaging fresh-water flooding is in northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is near record high levels, and there is nowhere for the rain to go (Figure 5.) Heavy rains of 4 - 12" are likely across all of coastal New England if Irene passes within 100 miles of shore.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave far out in the eastern Atlantic about 200 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, Invest 90L, is showing signs of organization. NHC is giving this disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. Several of our models do develop 90L into a tropical storm by early next week, but long-range models are showing that this system will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT today
I'll be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Wednesday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner, Tim Roche, and Angela Fritz will also be there. Listeners can email in or call in questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 740 - 690

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index

Quoting dewfree:
Remebering hugo,

All the forecast models did this same dance with Hugo, They all said Hugo would curve and pass the outer banks .All intrest from South Carolina ,Georgia line north should be watching this storm ,If i remeber correctely they only had a few hours to board up and get out .

I seen Charleston it was a mess .The models i seen last night had a consensus .now it appears they have spread abit .I would still watch for a further west track
Yea, my mom told me the same story about Hugo's forecasting by Weather Channel (supported by NHC's datas). Hugo was supposed to curves up to be Cape Hatteras scrapper, but it end up going straight to Charleston and not curving. NHC is doing great job so far, but y'all want to remains cautious.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7506
Yep! Someone said it looked like a 2005 Reunion! Good to see you guys! : )
Quoting oreodogsghost:
And Nash too! How are you, old friend?
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29378
Zap,

I remember going to NC in 1999 for an anniversary trip right after a big storm. Upshot was it was hard to get barbeque and good leather because so much livestock was lost in their September/October storm. It is a tragedy everywhere storms go, no doubt.

Time to time, I miss our often expansive discussions.

Woof
Member Since: February 2, 2009 Posts: 21 Comments: 1464
Quoting atmoaggie:
Watch this space...

Possible EWRC beginning. Recon recorded double wind maxima. Maybe inner eyewall collapse.


Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realt ime/loop.asp?product=1kmvsimg&storm_identifier =AL0 92011&starting_image=2011AL09_1KMVSIMG_2011082 3123 5.GIF


Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realt ime/loop.asp?product=4kmsrbdc&storm_identifier =AL0 92011&starting_image=2011AL09_4KMSRBDC_2011082 4124 5.jpg


Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realt ime/loop.asp?product=1kmirimg&storm_identifier =AL0 92011&starting_image=2011AL09_1KMIRIMG_2011082 3150 1.GIF

An EWRC would yield a lessened peak wind speed for the Bahama Islands experiencing it, but, likely, an overall larger-in-area wind radial profile.



That would explain the extreme wobbling.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SCwannabe:


Consider the source...he read it off of a cue card...like he really knows


doesnt diminish the fact the the SHIPS said that though
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nash28:


Well, that is the weakness or path of least resistance. If it were to close, or the two highs were to bridge (which is NOT going to happen) then it would be westward ho, or WNW.

does it look like it may close to you? if the 2 highs were to bridge what would happen then? why is it very unlikely for the 2 highs to bridge? thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehanna:
when is the more Northerly turn anticipated?
I honestly dont think it will be till late this evening before any weather expert will make that commitment to a more N of W track. Irene still skirts more W of N and with the ridge building back into place, from what I am reading and watching, it may not go as far east as thought. I dunno, but I pretty much just follow a few bloggers say and then laugh at the rest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So if we are, in fact, witnessing an EWRC - and the sudden jogs, coupled with an eye open to the southwest, level pressure, and outer wind maxima would seem to suggest as much - then Irene might well be able to reconsolidate overnight, in time to resume strengthening while still over the relatively warm, shallow water. Personally, I'm hoping the EWRC holds off for another 24 hours, coming too late to allow for much subsequent consolidation. But it doesn't look as if I'm going to get that wish.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Watch this space...

Possible EWRC beginning. Recon recorded double wind maxima. Maybe inner eyewall collapse.


Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realt ime/loop.asp?product=1kmvsimg&storm_identifier=AL0 92011&starting_image=2011AL09_1KMVSIMG_20110823123 5.GIF


Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realt ime/loop.asp?product=4kmsrbdc&storm_identifier=AL0 92011&starting_image=2011AL09_4KMSRBDC_20110824124 5.jpg


Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realt ime/loop.asp?product=1kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL0 92011&starting_image=2011AL09_1KMIRIMG_20110823150 1.GIF

An EWRC would yield a lessened peak wind speed for the Bahama Islands experiencing it, but, likely, an overall larger-in-area wind radial profile.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
A track like this from the UKMET would bring TS winds to the FL coast.

UKMET Office


HURRICANE IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.1N 73.3W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092011


00UTC 26.08.2011 26.8N 77.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

Yes, indeed. That would be actually just offshore Grand Bahama Island, and about 50 miles east of Freeport (and 140 miles east of West Palm Beach).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting dewfree:
Remebering hugo,

All the forecast models did this same dance with Hugo, They all said Hugo would curve and pass the outer banks .All intrest from South Carolina ,Georgia line north should be watching this storm ,If i remeber correctely they only had a few hours to board up and get out .

I seen Charleston it was a mess .The models i seen last night had a consensus .now it appears they have spread abit .I would still watch for a further west track


I wasn't here in Charleston at the time, but I have had several conversations this week with folks who were here. They all said the same thing. Hugo was not expected to hit here. Everyone let their guards down. Then, BAM! Here comes Hugo.

So, until the storm is N of your latitude it CAN happen. Charleston is not that far out of the path.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alvarig1263:
WOW! Atlantic Ridge continues to build west, while the Texas ridge moves slightly westward again. East coast watch out. ATL Ridge looking pretty strong and has been keeping the trough up north, and not digging down just yet. Will it even be able to pick up Irene? Ahh, so many questions... lol

Look at Wind Analysis below...

At 12Z:


At 15Z:


Currently at 18Z:


The NEST concern would be for Jose. Models show him turning towards the north but he is headed westward right now. It makes me believe that he might continue westward.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
727. NJ2S
Quoting IceCoast:
12Z Euro paints a very bleak picture. This would be a disaster.


What will this mean for new jersey and NYC ???
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 115
Quoting CoopsWife:

UGH is right, Bayside.


The below, in combination with the forecast make it seem that it’s currently predicted to be 1 ½ feet or so below the Nor'Ida level that flooded us… but things change, hopefully it does not get worse!

This is from Dr. Masters Wunderblog back then Link

The highest storm surges at Sewell's Point tide gauge in Norfolk, Virginia since 1927:

5.96' Nov 2009 Ida-extratropical
5.62' Sep 2003 Hurricane Isabel
5.61' Aug 1933 Chesapeake-Atlantic Hurricane
4.73' Sep 1933 Hurricane 13, Cat 1)
4.66' Mar 1962 Ash Wednesday Nor'easter
4.05' Sep 1936 (Hurricane 13, Cat 2)

Last night's peak surge did not hit at high tide, and the storm tide--the combination of surge plus the tide--peaked at 7.74' above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW), slightly below the 7.89' storm tide of Hurricane Isabel.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ryuujin:


TWC channel just said the Euro has trended west too, and umm...if that's the newest steering where is the gap? Still a novice at reading these


Remember you are looking at a snapshot. Those charts are updated every three hours. There is a trough moving in (based on seeing others earlier today) that will most likely reopen the gap between the ridges.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:


Nrt... are there time comparison in tracks like the GFS but for UKM?


There are but on this site they only go out 72 hours on the UKMET. Think it has something to do with them restricting their model data.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10471
Quoting kwgirl:
As Katrina was traveling westward, she skirted the North side of the Keys and was forcasted as a TS. While I was at work, she was a Cat 1 in the harbor. I had to walk home in thigh deep water. So yes Katrina impacted Florida.


Beachfoxx's point was that when Katrina made landfall in La/Ms, effects were felt well to the east. She was not referring to the earlier crossing of S. Fl.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
when is the more Northerly turn anticipated?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Odog, funny how many old names return for the first big storm in years.

Wonder how many others are still lurking?


Was just down in NC a few weeks back. Would hate to see Irene wash those quaint little beach areas away. Still not sure they won't get a closer call than the models suggest though -- I know they're good, but there is a lot that needs to happen by Sat for the East coast to come out unscathed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Remebering hugo,

All the forecast models did this same dance with Hugo, They all said Hugo would curve and pass the outer banks .All intrest from South Carolina ,Georgia line north should be watching this storm ,If i remeber correctely they only had a few hours to board up and get out .

I seen Charleston it was a mess .The models i seen last night had a consensus .now it appears they have spread abit .I would still watch for a further west track
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
Quoting NYX:

Yeah, we actually got the warning as it was coming onshore.  Pretty useless by then.  I drove on my way home from work through the developing core on the Florida Turnpike where a truck flipped over right in front of me.  Not a pleasant experience.
This is the storm that had been declared a TD, what 24 hours earlier? Wasn't a TS until it crossed Exuma Sound?? Yeah, that Katrina was one for the books, all right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:


Imagine power disruptions as with Ike but with this heat returning afterwards.
Lived off gas generator for 16 days. Didn't need AC ,temps were ok. Don't want to do that again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VieraChris:


Hello neighbor. Several of us from Brevard were discussing this a couple of hours ago and we agree totally.


mmmhmmm!! and it is a day in paradise so far. beautiful and hot! but i do tell you what, if a hurricane comes our way ( knock on wood) and takes our power, i'm going to be one super angry preggo on the loose! hope you guys are prepared if anything happens in the next couple of days!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
12Z ECMWF 96 hours.....somewhere under that is the NE.



Yes the 12Z Euro would be a most devastating track making landfall on the Outer Banks as a high end Cat 4 maybe Cat 5 then slams the New England states as a Cat 3!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting charlottefl:
NEW STEERING




ok so tell me this.

How is the storm suppose to turn towards the outerbanks of North Carolina with that in the way? Oh and to wonder why people consider me crazy two days ago when I stated that I think this is making landfall in South Carolina.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Time to tune up the 'genny. Last hurricane to really impact me in RI was Bob. That little guy dropped a 36" black locust tree on my roof. Took out the chimney, which actually saved the house from total destruction. But will never forget the sound of bricks tumbling down...thud thud thud. Were without power for 10 days. To the folks worried that the northeast isn't ready - true we don't get +75mph storms as often, do get more than enuf tropical force storms and winter Nor'easters. Believe me, rather be without power 10 days in the summer, than in the winter under 3' of white stuff! I do worry that too many of the "new money" folks who took little, throw-away beach cottages and turnd them into year-round waterfront McMansions are gonna be too confident to get their butts inland.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WOW! Atlantic Ridge continues to build west, while the Texas ridge moves slightly westward again. East coast watch out. ATL Ridge looking pretty strong and has been keeping the trough up north, and not digging down just yet. Will it even be able to pick up Irene? Ahh, so many questions... lol

Look at Wind Analysis below...

At 12Z:


At 15Z:


Currently at 18Z:
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
Everytime I go back on here, the outlooks get worse for Carolinas... also Bahamas is on brink of getting slammed by Category 4 storm. Prayers for y'all and other islanders!
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7506
Quoting winter123:
Ok my post never went through? (im on a phone)

I was wondering what effect that ULL off NC will have on Irene. Help bring it north and east?



I keep watching that but I don't think anyone wants to put their weather credentials out on the line yet and just say "okay...this is whats going to happen with Irene"...and I can understand why but I feel your frustration
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sarahjola:
what happens when the gap closes in your opinion? thanks!


Well, that is the weakness or path of least resistance. If it were to close, or the two highs were to bridge (which is NOT going to happen) then it would be westward ho, or WNW.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am right now listening to a rake and scrape song for which the operative line is "I gat a hang OOOOee..."

LOL

It doesn't sound attractive...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


I live in Houston as well and the NWS is now saying the high Friday is 107! If we had another Ike, not only would it cause mass flooding, but just imagine the amount of trees down from Ike and multiply that by 2 or 3 and that is what you are looking at. The soil here is so dry and all the Trees are extremely dry. If you have sustained 100-110 mph winds for a few hours every tree will be destroyed. Instead of being without power for 2-3 weeks after Ike it would me months before they could get all the lines back up. With this Heat, I will gladly pass on that. We do need week TS to come in here though and drop about 10-15 inches of rain in 2 days. It would cause some flooding but it won't be near as bad as what we have seen in the past!


+1000
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Seastep:
Apologies if it has already been posted.

Latest steering:




TWC channel just said the Euro has trended west too, and umm...if that's the newest steering where is the gap? Still a novice at reading these
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alvarig1263:
WOW! Atlantic Ridge continues to build west, while the Texas ridge moves slightly westward again. East coast watch out. ATL Ridge looking pretty strong and has been keeping the trough up north, and not digging down just yet. Will it even be able to pick up Irene? Ahh, so many questions... lol

Look at Wind Analysis below...

At 12Z:


At 15Z:


Currently at 18Z:


Wow...that's scary
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NJcat3cane:
cAN some post 12z gfdl please n tia..


12z GFDL Loop

Link
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
12Z Euro paints a very bleak picture. This would be a disaster.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Awesome
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting NJcat3cane:
cAN some post 12z gfdl please n tia..


12Z GFDL
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


I live in Houston as well and the NWS is now saying the high Friday is 107! If we had another Ike, not only would it cause mass flooding, but just imagine the amount of trees down from Ike and multiply that by 2 or 3 and that is what you are looking at. The soil here is so dry and all the Trees are extremely dry. If you have sustained 100-110 mph winds for a few hours every tree will be destroyed. Instead of being without power for 2-3 weeks after Ike it would me months before they could get all the lines back up. With this Heat, I will gladly pass on that. We do need week TS to come in here though and drop about 10-15 inches of rain in 2 days. It would cause some flooding but it won't be near as bad as what we have seen in the past!
Supposed to be 105 here this weekend in bmt area!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A track like this from the UKMET would bring TS winds to the FL coast.

UKMET Office


HURRICANE IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.1N 73.3W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092011


00UTC 26.08.2011 26.8N 77.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bahamacast:
Im on Great Exuma and it's going down hill very fast gust to 55 mph.


Hang in there, we have people in the Abacos as well and they're pretty much terrified ... the last planes got out, I think. I hope the internet stays up and you can get some reports out from the island.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tiggeriffic:


according to the map just above your comment it looks pretty much closed...will it reopen or will the track change is the question now


There's a trough just arriving that may reopen the gap.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nash28:
Just checked the updated steering for Irene. The ST ridge has nudged the western periphery further W.

Gap is closing.
what happens when the gap closes in your opinion? thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gecko:


It doesn't freeze there, I'm really very surprised the lines aren't just buried. Well, the deep freeze is the reason our muni says ours can't be buried, but that's right after an ice storm takes down the lines.


ck the post just above lol...salt water, sea levels, etc
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
she bust a hole through that gap
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
And Nash too! How are you, old friend?
Member Since: February 2, 2009 Posts: 21 Comments: 1464
Ok my post never went through? (im on a phone)

I was wondering what effect that ULL off NC will have on Irene. Help bring it north and east?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wolftribe2009:
well odd thing is I accidentally stated that Irene was about to hit Crooked Island but was actually talking about Great Angua Island; however, I guess I was just a few hours early.


I meant I stated that last Night but here the storm is striking today at Crooked Island.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
12Z ECMWF 96 hours.....somewhere under that is the NE.


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10471
Quoting FefiBrevard:
i've posting a couple of days ago wondering if i should prepare myself for Irene. which i did. im in brevard county, cocoa area. if you are worried that you think this thing is heading to florida, go get prepared. just keep up to date on your local mets, and firgure it out what you should do. and for everyone else bashing, and ripping each other by who comment what, and who said this, let it go. everyone has their right for an opinion, so just relax, prepare for the worst as if it's heading your way, and just be prepare. and hey, im pregnant and not freaking out. thank you all for great input on info and map things, which i am still learning about. :) ya'll have an awesome day.


Hello neighbor. Several of us from Brevard were discussing this a couple of hours ago and we agree totally.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 32

Viewing: 740 - 690

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.