Powerful Category 3 Irene enters the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:49 PM GMT on August 24, 2011

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Powerful Category 3 Hurricane Irene stormed through the Turks and Caicos Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding. On Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where half of the population of these islands live, winds reached a sustained 65 mph at a personal weather station at Pine Cay, and the pressure bottomed out at 989 mb. The eyewall of Irene missed the island, with the center of the storm passing about 60 miles to the southwest. The center of Irene passed about 60 miles to the northwest of Grand Inagua Island, and Category 1 hurricane conditions were probably experienced on that island. Damage in the Turks and Caicos is likely to be much less than the $50 - $200 million wrought by Category 4 Hurricane Ike of 2008, since Irene's eyewall missed populated islands.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.

Monday, Irene hit Puerto Rico as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds, but reached hurricane strength as it emerged into the Atlantic northwest of the capital of San Juan. One drowning death is being reported from the island, and the storm dumped up to 20 inches of rain in some areas. About 11% of the island was still without power this morning, and numerous roads were closed due to flooding and landslides. Irene did an estimated $17 million in damage to agriculture and $2 million to ports in Puerto Rico. Satellite estimates suggest that Irene has brought only 1 - 2 inches of rain to Haiti. With Irene now pulling away from Hispaniola, Haiti can expect only another 1 - 2 inches from the hurricane, and appears to have dodged a major bullet. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches were common across the Dominican Republic, where moderate flooding but no deaths occurred.


Track forecast for Irene
Continuing dropsonde missions by the NOAA jet have helped to significantly narrow the uncertainty in the 1 - 3 day forecasts from the computer models. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. However, the models still diverge considerably on their 4 - 5 days forecasts, and we don't know if Irene will plow up the mid-Atlantic coast into New Jersey, as the GFDL model is predicting, hit New England between Long Island, NY and Massachusetts, as the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF models are predicting, or miss the U.S. and hit Canada, as the NOGAPS model is predicting.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Latest data from the Hurricane Hunters shows that Irene has paused in its intensification cycle. A gap has opened in the eyewall, and the central pressure has remained constant at 956 - 957 mb over the past few hours. However, the hurricane is embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a Category 4 storm sometime in the next two days. Satellite loops show that Irene is well-organized, with excellent upper-level outflow, and impressive spiral banding.

Irene's impact on the Bahama Islands
Irene is making a direct hit on Crooked Island (population 350) in the Bahamas, and will continue west-northwest and hit Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700) late tonight. These unfortunate islands will bear the full brunt of Irene's 115+ mph winds and 8 - 13 foot storm surge, and suffer major damage that will take months to recover from. Major damage is also likely on Long Island (population 3000) and San Salvador Island (population 1000.) Shortly after midnight tonight, winds at the capital of Nassau, home to 70% of the population of the Bahamas, will rise above tropical storm force, and increase through the night. By late morning on Thursday, sustained winds will peak on Nassau at just below hurricane force, 60 - 70 mph. Nassau will miss the brunt of the storm, and I expect the airport should be able to re-open on Friday. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 60 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm, but Abaco Island to its east will likely experience Category 2 hurricane conditions Thursday afternoon. However, Abaco will probably miss the right front eyewall of Irene with the strongest winds and highest storm surge.


Figure 2. Wind distibution around Irene as of 1330 UTC (9:30am EDT) August 24, 2011. Irene was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds at the time. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors) extended over Crooked Island to the storm's northwest, and over Mayaguana Island to the east. Image credit: NOAA/AOML. Irene is a large storm, and its potential storm surge damage rated 3.9 on a scale of 0 to 6, with its wind damage potential rated at 2.5 on a scale of 0 to 6.

Irene's impact on the Southeast U.S.
Long-period ocean swells from Irene will reach the coast from Florida to North Carolina tonight, and continue to build as the storm approaches. The outermost rainbands of the hurricane will reach South Florida by Thursday morning, and spread over much of the eastern coastal portion of Florida during the day Thursday. If Irene follows the official NHC forecast through the Bahama Islands, the storm's expected radius of tropical storm-force winds of 130 - 170 miles will keep tropical storm conditions just off the east coast of Florida. Sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph can be expected along the coast of Florida during Irene's point of closest approach, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2" will be common along the coast. Georgia, which could use the rain, will get very little. It is unlikely any airport in Florida or Georgia will need to close for Irene.

Late Friday night or early Saturday morning, Irene's outer spiral bands will move over the southern coast of North Carolina and the northeastern portion of South Carolina, and tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph will arrive. Winds will steadily increase to hurricane force on the Outer Banks by Saturday night. The main damage from Irene in North Carolina will come from the storm's flooding rains of 4 - 12" that will fall in coastal areas. Fortunately, this region is under moderate to severe drought, so the damage will not be as severe as that experienced during Hurricane Floyd of 1999. Significant wind damage can be expected in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and considerable storm surge damage may occur along the shores of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. If Irene's eye misses making landfall in North Carolina, total damage from the storm should be less than $200 million, and could be considerably less than that.


Figure 3. Sea surface temperatures for August 24, 2011. Temperatures of 26°C (79°F) are typically needed for a hurricane to maintain its strength (black line). This boundary lies just off the southern coast of New Jersey this year, which is much farther north than usual.


Figure 4. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Monday morning, August 29, at 8am EDT. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Irene's impact on the mid-Atlantic and New England
The impact of Irene on the mid-Atlantic and New England is highly uncertain at this point, because we don't know if the core of the storm will miss the coast or not. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along a 100-mile swath just to the west of where the center tracks, and the worst wind and storm surge damage will occur to the east. If the core of Irene stays offshore, the mid-Atlantic and New England may escape with a few hundred million dollars in damage from flooding due to heavy rains and storm surge. If Irene hits Long Island or Southeast Massachusetts, the storm has the potential to be a $10 billion disaster. Irene is one of those rare storms that has the potential to make landfall in New England as a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. It is difficult for a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane crossing north of North Carolina to maintain that intensity, because wind shear rapidly increases and ocean temperatures plunge below the 26°C (79°F) level that can support a hurricane. We do expect wind shear to rapidly increase to a high 30 - 50 knots once Irene pushes north of Delaware, which should knock the storm down by at least 15 - 30 mph before it reaches New England. However, this year sea surface temperatures 1 - 3°F warmer than average extend along the East Coast from North Carolina to New York. Waters of at least 26°C extend all the way to Southern New Jersey, which will make it easier for Irene to maintain its strength much farther to the north than a hurricane usually can. During the month of July, ocean temperature off the mid-Atlantic coast (35°N - 40°N, 75°W - 70°W) averaged 2.6°F (1.45°C) above average, the second highest July ocean temperatures since record keeping began over a century ago (the record was 3.8°F above average, set in 2010.) These warm ocean temperatures will also make Irene a much wetter hurricane than is typical, since much more water vapor can evaporate into the air from record-warm ocean surfaces. The latest precipitation forecast from NOAA's Hydrological prediction center shows that Irene could dump over 8 inches of rain over coastal New England.


Figure 5. Soil moisture profiles from yesterday show that a region of very moist soils ranking in the top 1% in recorded history (dark green colors) lie over northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

Tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains will move into Eastern Virginia Saturday afternoon, and push northwards to Delaware and coastal Maryland by late Saturday night. Tropical moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere will also stream well ahead of Irene into New England on Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing what is called a "Predecessor Rain Event" (PRE). The Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia airports will be right at the edge of the heavy rain and high wind area, and it currently appears they will not have to close for an extended period. The Philadelphia and New York City airports may not be as lucky, and it is possible they will suffer extended closures Sunday morning and afternoon. By late Sunday night, Irene's rains will move north of New York City, allowing the airports to re-open. The highest potential for damaging fresh-water flooding is in northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is near record high levels, and there is nowhere for the rain to go (Figure 5.) Heavy rains of 4 - 12" are likely across all of coastal New England if Irene passes within 100 miles of shore.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave far out in the eastern Atlantic about 200 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, Invest 90L, is showing signs of organization. NHC is giving this disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. Several of our models do develop 90L into a tropical storm by early next week, but long-range models are showing that this system will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT today
I'll be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Wednesday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner, Tim Roche, and Angela Fritz will also be there. Listeners can email in or call in questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.

Jeff Masters

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First time poster here.....does anyone know if Directv is planning on following local tv coverage of Irene's approach? I remember that Directv simulcasted KHOU during Hurricane Ike.

Thanks!
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I'd say this qualifies as a Katrina Florida landfall:
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HOLY CRAP!

958 MB storm hitting Long Island shown shown by GFS

Link
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
A little older image, but...



And, another aggie beat me to it, I see.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
786. HiWay
Quoting wxobsvps:


Would prefer to see the weakness more pronounced and off shore.


It's moving east, by the time Irene gets to it, it will be off shore.
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785. JeffM
Quoting Beachfoxx:
'Tis the season that brings us out...


2005'er here. While I do not post much, I still lurk every year. :)
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Quoting FefiBrevard:


mmmhmmm!! and it is a day in paradise so far. beautiful and hot! but i do tell you what, if a hurricane comes our way ( knock on wood) and takes our power, i'm going to be one super angry preggo on the loose! hope you guys are prepared if anything happens in the next couple of days!


We are prepared and hoping to wave as Irene passes by offshore. Good luck with the A/C! =)
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Quoting dipchip:
Looks like the eye of the storm will be directly over Rum Cay in about 4 hours.
is that the long one?
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Irene got to make NNW or N turn now if Florida were to avoid TS winds.


Not gonna happen just yet, steering currents not allowing it at present, and trough not digging deep enough yet to pull her out. She's being controlled by the ATL ridge for now and that's pulling here WNW to NW.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
12Z GFDL...

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Not weather, but "Russia Today" is reporting the supply rocket to the space station blew up / crashed in Eastern Russia. It was unmanned but may have been people on ground at crash site.
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1815 on sat has a wnw motion
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I am right now listening to a rake and scrape song for which the operative line is "I gat a hang OOOOee..."

LOL

It doesn't sound attractive...
I will have one soon as this thang get's closer.
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Quoting 69Viking:


Not so sure about that, didn't we have rumors of porn on here today? I don't every remember that happening in the past!


Wasn't a rumor, Viking. I hadn't yet placed his new handle on ignore and so was errr - surprised...
ICK, ICK, ICK is all I have to say.
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I am having problems reading some of the posts. The right side is cut-off. I have adjusted view to smallest text but that still doesn't help. It is very difficult to guess at the last few words in each sentence. Can someone help me correct this problem. Thanks
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732. atmoaggie

Was noticing SHIPS had a high probability for eyewall replacement.


** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/24/2011 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 27 27( 47) 30( 63) 28( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 65 72( 90) 78( 98) 33( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10462
Well I really dont know where my last post went but here it is again :

Right now im guessing Mertle beach to kitty hawk would be area to watch
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
770. GoWVU
Quoting nash28:


I wasn't here in Charleston at the time, but I have had several conversations this week with folks who were here. They all said the same thing. Hugo was not expected to hit here. Everyone let their guards down. Then, BAM! Here comes Hugo.

So, until the storm is N of your latitude it CAN happen. Charleston is not that far out of the path.


I remember Hugo and that is why this storm is a little scary, until she makes the turn and is past Charleston Harbour, I will feel ok.
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And oakland!

Dang - we only need emmy and swlaaggie now.

And even gulfscotsman, my friend/nemisis! He could quote Rush lyrics.

Woof
Member Since: February 2, 2009 Posts: 21 Comments: 1464
I'm not sure that category 4 can be reached and sustained with this structure. Irene may hold at about this intensity for a little while while some things change under the hood, such as possibly undergoing an EWRC.

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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

If the Euro scenario should come true you would experience 100 plus MPH winds over much of New England with the center of Irene passing over or near New York and New Jersey!!!


Wow!.. I moved to Florida 2 yrs ago from NJ and everybody joked about hurricanes to me and now my friends and family are in harms way.. scary stuff..
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
WxLogic, as my earlier post said about the SFWMD. On the latest model update they have the CMC at 1800Z, can't be, the latest run is 12Z so it must be the CMCI




That explains some of the discrepancies... would be nice if they labeled them correctly as you hinted last time.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
765. Jax82
The Highs arent going to Bridge, she's going North, no chance at a FL hit, sorry! If ur a surfer, go surfing, it'll be sweet and gnarly.
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764. 7544
moning nw at 12 hmmmmm
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Quoting Grandpato4:
It appears my area will only get sustained winds of about 40-50 MPH. Not so bad when a couple of days ago it was supposed to hit here as a major.


GrandPa...don't count on it....
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Quoting Beachfoxx:
'Tis the season that brings us out...


Yes it is.....
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Irene got to make NNW or N turn now if Florida were to avoid TS winds.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7459
Quoting atmoaggie:

Watch this space...
Possible EWRC beginning. Recon recorded double wind maxima. Maybe inner eyewall collapse.

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realt ime/loop.asp?product=1kmvsimg&storm_identifier =AL0 92011&starting_image=2011AL09_1KMVSIMG_2011082 3123 5.GIF

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realt ime/loop.asp?product=4kmsrbdc&storm_identifier =AL0 92011&starting_image=2011AL09_4KMSRBDC_2011082 4124 5.jpg

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realt ime/loop.asp?product=1kmirimg&storm_identifier =AL0 92011&starting_image=2011AL09_1KMIRIMG_2011082 3150 1.GIF
An EWRC would yield a lessened peak wind speed for the Bahama Islands experiencing it, but, likely, an overall larger-in-area wind radial profile.

Oops, wrong IR image (that one is rather old).



Also:

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ft.html
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
759. NJ2S
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

If the Euro scenario should come true you would experience 100 plus MPH winds over much of New England with the center of Irene passing over or near New York and New Jersey!!!


Omg im in nj a few blocks from the Hudson river .... Is is scary
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Looks like the eye of the storm will be directly over Rum Cay in about 4 hours.
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Holly EURO batman...

Link

That would be a really bad situation for Outterbanks, NJ coast, and the entire NYC / Hudson Valley region all they way to Canada, if that verifes.

Just wow... that all I can see about that run...

BUT I'll start to panic if it looks the same on the 12z run on THURS.
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 241742
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE A LITTLE STRONGER...EYE OVER CROOKED ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 74.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

INTERESTS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...
195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD
BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOW SPREADING
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
BAHAMAS. A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
Quoting AVL:
What level are teh steering maps extrapolated from? ASnd can someone provide a link to the steering map god?


Taken from 300-850 MB. Link below...

Link
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
NHC now on the right side of guidance.



Good! So I can focus on studying! :) I give up with Irene!
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Quoting dewfree:
Remebering hugo,

All the forecast models did this same dance with Hugo, They all said Hugo would curve and pass the outer banks .All intrest from South Carolina ,Georgia line north should be watching this storm ,If i remeber correctely they only had a few hours to board up and get out .

I seen Charleston it was a mess .The models i seen last night had a consensus .now it appears they have spread abit .I would still watch for a further west track


NO thank you please...i was here for hugo...just glad i didn't listen back then and because of that i am vigilant in preparing each and every year...hoping that bermuda high pulls back to the east instead of trending west....
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751. Beachfoxx
6:42 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
'Tis the season that brings us out...
Quoting Zaphod:
Odog, funny how many old names return for the first big storm in years.

Wonder how many others are still lurking?


Was just down in NC a few weeks back. Would hate to see Irene wash those quaint little beach areas away. Still not sure they won't get a closer call than the models suggest though -- I know they're good, but there is a lot that needs to happen by Sat for the East coast to come out unscathed.
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750. EYEStoSEA
6:42 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
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749. nash28
6:42 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Quoting AVL:
What level are teh steering maps extrapolated from? ASnd can someone provide a link to the steering map god?


Here is the link to the map: Link

300-850mb
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
748. nrtiwlnvragn
6:42 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
WxLogic, as my earlier post said about the SFWMD. On the latest model update they have the CMC at 1800Z, can't be, the latest run is 12Z so it must be the CMCI


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10462
747. interstatelover7165
6:42 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
...IRENE A LITTLE STRONGER...EYE OVER CROOKED ISLAND...
2:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 22.7°N 74.3°W
Max sustained: 120 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 954 mb
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
746. dewfree
6:42 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Im guessing right now mertle beach area to kitty hawk
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
745. DavidHOUTX
6:42 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Quoting angiest:


Imagine power disruptions as with Ike but with this heat returning afterwards.


That would be utter chaos! It certainly wouldn't be a friendly environment afterward. We were lucky that after Ike came through we had 3 days or so in the 80s in mid September which was a blessing.
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744. ProgressivePulse
6:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
NHC now on the right side of guidance, in the short term.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
743. Neapolitan
6:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13266
742. xtremeweathertracker
6:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Quoting NJ2S:


What will this mean for new jersey and NYC ???

If the Euro scenario should come true you would experience 100 plus MPH winds over much of New England with the center of Irene passing over or near New York and New Jersey!!!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 566
741. AVL
6:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
What level are teh steering maps extrapolated from? ASnd can someone provide a link to the steering map god?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
740. Bluestorm5
6:40 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Quoting dewfree:
Remebering hugo,

All the forecast models did this same dance with Hugo, They all said Hugo would curve and pass the outer banks .All intrest from South Carolina ,Georgia line north should be watching this storm ,If i remeber correctely they only had a few hours to board up and get out .

I seen Charleston it was a mess .The models i seen last night had a consensus .now it appears they have spread abit .I would still watch for a further west track
Yea, my mom told me the same story about Hugo's forecasting by Weather Channel (supported by NHC's datas). Hugo was supposed to curves up to be Cape Hatteras scrapper, but it end up going straight to Charleston and not curving. NHC is doing great job so far, but y'all want to remains cautious.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7459

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.