Powerful Category 3 Irene enters the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:49 PM GMT on August 24, 2011

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Powerful Category 3 Hurricane Irene stormed through the Turks and Caicos Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding. On Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where half of the population of these islands live, winds reached a sustained 65 mph at a personal weather station at Pine Cay, and the pressure bottomed out at 989 mb. The eyewall of Irene missed the island, with the center of the storm passing about 60 miles to the southwest. The center of Irene passed about 60 miles to the northwest of Grand Inagua Island, and Category 1 hurricane conditions were probably experienced on that island. Damage in the Turks and Caicos is likely to be much less than the $50 - $200 million wrought by Category 4 Hurricane Ike of 2008, since Irene's eyewall missed populated islands.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.

Monday, Irene hit Puerto Rico as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds, but reached hurricane strength as it emerged into the Atlantic northwest of the capital of San Juan. One drowning death is being reported from the island, and the storm dumped up to 20 inches of rain in some areas. About 11% of the island was still without power this morning, and numerous roads were closed due to flooding and landslides. Irene did an estimated $17 million in damage to agriculture and $2 million to ports in Puerto Rico. Satellite estimates suggest that Irene has brought only 1 - 2 inches of rain to Haiti. With Irene now pulling away from Hispaniola, Haiti can expect only another 1 - 2 inches from the hurricane, and appears to have dodged a major bullet. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches were common across the Dominican Republic, where moderate flooding but no deaths occurred.


Track forecast for Irene
Continuing dropsonde missions by the NOAA jet have helped to significantly narrow the uncertainty in the 1 - 3 day forecasts from the computer models. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. However, the models still diverge considerably on their 4 - 5 days forecasts, and we don't know if Irene will plow up the mid-Atlantic coast into New Jersey, as the GFDL model is predicting, hit New England between Long Island, NY and Massachusetts, as the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF models are predicting, or miss the U.S. and hit Canada, as the NOGAPS model is predicting.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Latest data from the Hurricane Hunters shows that Irene has paused in its intensification cycle. A gap has opened in the eyewall, and the central pressure has remained constant at 956 - 957 mb over the past few hours. However, the hurricane is embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a Category 4 storm sometime in the next two days. Satellite loops show that Irene is well-organized, with excellent upper-level outflow, and impressive spiral banding.

Irene's impact on the Bahama Islands
Irene is making a direct hit on Crooked Island (population 350) in the Bahamas, and will continue west-northwest and hit Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700) late tonight. These unfortunate islands will bear the full brunt of Irene's 115+ mph winds and 8 - 13 foot storm surge, and suffer major damage that will take months to recover from. Major damage is also likely on Long Island (population 3000) and San Salvador Island (population 1000.) Shortly after midnight tonight, winds at the capital of Nassau, home to 70% of the population of the Bahamas, will rise above tropical storm force, and increase through the night. By late morning on Thursday, sustained winds will peak on Nassau at just below hurricane force, 60 - 70 mph. Nassau will miss the brunt of the storm, and I expect the airport should be able to re-open on Friday. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 60 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm, but Abaco Island to its east will likely experience Category 2 hurricane conditions Thursday afternoon. However, Abaco will probably miss the right front eyewall of Irene with the strongest winds and highest storm surge.


Figure 2. Wind distibution around Irene as of 1330 UTC (9:30am EDT) August 24, 2011. Irene was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds at the time. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors) extended over Crooked Island to the storm's northwest, and over Mayaguana Island to the east. Image credit: NOAA/AOML. Irene is a large storm, and its potential storm surge damage rated 3.9 on a scale of 0 to 6, with its wind damage potential rated at 2.5 on a scale of 0 to 6.

Irene's impact on the Southeast U.S.
Long-period ocean swells from Irene will reach the coast from Florida to North Carolina tonight, and continue to build as the storm approaches. The outermost rainbands of the hurricane will reach South Florida by Thursday morning, and spread over much of the eastern coastal portion of Florida during the day Thursday. If Irene follows the official NHC forecast through the Bahama Islands, the storm's expected radius of tropical storm-force winds of 130 - 170 miles will keep tropical storm conditions just off the east coast of Florida. Sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph can be expected along the coast of Florida during Irene's point of closest approach, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2" will be common along the coast. Georgia, which could use the rain, will get very little. It is unlikely any airport in Florida or Georgia will need to close for Irene.

Late Friday night or early Saturday morning, Irene's outer spiral bands will move over the southern coast of North Carolina and the northeastern portion of South Carolina, and tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph will arrive. Winds will steadily increase to hurricane force on the Outer Banks by Saturday night. The main damage from Irene in North Carolina will come from the storm's flooding rains of 4 - 12" that will fall in coastal areas. Fortunately, this region is under moderate to severe drought, so the damage will not be as severe as that experienced during Hurricane Floyd of 1999. Significant wind damage can be expected in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and considerable storm surge damage may occur along the shores of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. If Irene's eye misses making landfall in North Carolina, total damage from the storm should be less than $200 million, and could be considerably less than that.


Figure 3. Sea surface temperatures for August 24, 2011. Temperatures of 26°C (79°F) are typically needed for a hurricane to maintain its strength (black line). This boundary lies just off the southern coast of New Jersey this year, which is much farther north than usual.


Figure 4. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Monday morning, August 29, at 8am EDT. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Irene's impact on the mid-Atlantic and New England
The impact of Irene on the mid-Atlantic and New England is highly uncertain at this point, because we don't know if the core of the storm will miss the coast or not. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along a 100-mile swath just to the west of where the center tracks, and the worst wind and storm surge damage will occur to the east. If the core of Irene stays offshore, the mid-Atlantic and New England may escape with a few hundred million dollars in damage from flooding due to heavy rains and storm surge. If Irene hits Long Island or Southeast Massachusetts, the storm has the potential to be a $10 billion disaster. Irene is one of those rare storms that has the potential to make landfall in New England as a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. It is difficult for a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane crossing north of North Carolina to maintain that intensity, because wind shear rapidly increases and ocean temperatures plunge below the 26°C (79°F) level that can support a hurricane. We do expect wind shear to rapidly increase to a high 30 - 50 knots once Irene pushes north of Delaware, which should knock the storm down by at least 15 - 30 mph before it reaches New England. However, this year sea surface temperatures 1 - 3°F warmer than average extend along the East Coast from North Carolina to New York. Waters of at least 26°C extend all the way to Southern New Jersey, which will make it easier for Irene to maintain its strength much farther to the north than a hurricane usually can. During the month of July, ocean temperature off the mid-Atlantic coast (35°N - 40°N, 75°W - 70°W) averaged 2.6°F (1.45°C) above average, the second highest July ocean temperatures since record keeping began over a century ago (the record was 3.8°F above average, set in 2010.) These warm ocean temperatures will also make Irene a much wetter hurricane than is typical, since much more water vapor can evaporate into the air from record-warm ocean surfaces. The latest precipitation forecast from NOAA's Hydrological prediction center shows that Irene could dump over 8 inches of rain over coastal New England.


Figure 5. Soil moisture profiles from yesterday show that a region of very moist soils ranking in the top 1% in recorded history (dark green colors) lie over northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

Tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains will move into Eastern Virginia Saturday afternoon, and push northwards to Delaware and coastal Maryland by late Saturday night. Tropical moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere will also stream well ahead of Irene into New England on Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing what is called a "Predecessor Rain Event" (PRE). The Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia airports will be right at the edge of the heavy rain and high wind area, and it currently appears they will not have to close for an extended period. The Philadelphia and New York City airports may not be as lucky, and it is possible they will suffer extended closures Sunday morning and afternoon. By late Sunday night, Irene's rains will move north of New York City, allowing the airports to re-open. The highest potential for damaging fresh-water flooding is in northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is near record high levels, and there is nowhere for the rain to go (Figure 5.) Heavy rains of 4 - 12" are likely across all of coastal New England if Irene passes within 100 miles of shore.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave far out in the eastern Atlantic about 200 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, Invest 90L, is showing signs of organization. NHC is giving this disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. Several of our models do develop 90L into a tropical storm by early next week, but long-range models are showing that this system will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT today
I'll be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Wednesday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner, Tim Roche, and Angela Fritz will also be there. Listeners can email in or call in questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grandpato4:


I know that is what they are doing one of them mailed me on here earlier today and said they were going to team up to remove all my posts. Then they had the nerve to tell me that I should go sit on the beach because my days were numbered anyway with or without a storm.


forward that email to Admin...they will handle it... threats like that are cause for a ban...
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
Quoting Grandpato4:


I know that is what they are doing one of them mailed me on here earlier today and said they were going to team up to remove all my posts. Then they had the nerve to tell me that I should go sit on the beach because my days were numbered anyway with or without a storm.
..and another word of advice... protesting these issues publicly will only draw attention to you. there are sick folk here, and they are just looking to pounce for no good reason than their perversion of entertainment. being reactionary to them is basically baiting their desire to get under someone's skin.... that's what folks around here call feeding/baiting the trolls.
GOOD LUCK!! so sorry this is happening to you at the moment..
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Quoting Grandpato4:


I know that is what they are doing one of them mailed me on here earlier today and said they were going to team up to remove all my posts. Then they had the nerve to tell me that I should go sit on the beach because my days were numbered anyway with or without a storm.


Unfortunately there are twits in every aspect of life. Maybe when they get real jobs and crawl out of momma's basement they'll start appreciating others.
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

If the Euro scenario should come true you would experience 100 plus MPH winds over much of New England with the center of Irene passing over or near New York and New Jersey!!!


But isn't it true that if the storm passes off the coast we'll be on the safer side? NJ has those barrier islands which can go underwater in a lesser storm than this though. The roads leading into/out of Atlantic City go under water in a nor'easter and the only way in our out is the AC Expressay. They could never evacuate Atlantic City in a reasonable time before a big hurricane...and they probably wouldn't even try. They wouldn't want anyone to leave a slot machine!! Consider too that we're having astronomical hich tide so that could just add to the flooding situation for my area...
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Quoting Grandpato4:


I know that is what they are doing one of them mailed me on here earlier today and said they were going to team up to remove all my posts. Then they had the nerve to tell me that I should go sit on the beach because my days were numbered anyway with or without a storm.


I suggest you send copies of those e-mails to admin.
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Quoting Grandpato4:


I know that is what they are doing one of them mailed me on here earlier today and said they were going to team up to remove all my posts. Then they had the nerve to tell me that I should go sit on the beach because my days were numbered anyway with or without a storm.
WTH???
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Quoting Grandpato4:


I know that is what they are doing one of them mailed me on here earlier today and said they were going to team up to remove all my posts. Then they had the nerve to tell me that I should go sit on the beach because my days were numbered anyway with or without a storm.


Sorry they are treating you this way..every dog has his day and they will get theirs. Keep watching the blog for good info though...there are some very informative people on here who can sometimes give more detailed or location-specific info than the meteorologists can, due to time constraints. Just make sure you have a plan - and stay safe. :)
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The blog is moving quickly as expected given the situation, so hopefully I can get an answer. IIRC, Irene has only dropped about 15 mb since last night/early this morning, but does anyone have a list of winds and pressures since she became a hurricane or for the past 24 hours?
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882. Gorty
Quoting wolftribe2009:
New York
9-1-1

Irene
9-1-1 (Creepy Right?)

I am VERY worried now. This is the first time that I can see that the GFS has shown a storm stronger in the North East than it is in the Carolinas. I have been noticing that opposite where you get a 960s storm in the Outerbanks and a 970s in New York.

Now the GFS says it will be a 958 MB storm which is in the range of pressure for a CAT 3 storm

Photobucket


Wow, look how tight those isobars are across New England and even NY state and the storm there is in southern CT only!
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Quoting yonzabam:


I think if enough people 'flag' a post, it automatically gets removed, without any oversight by admin.

This means that mischievous juveniles can contact each other to gang up on individuals for a bit of fun.

A regular poster who was an amateur met and middle aged (StormW) got ganged up on by the ADHD mob last year.


Exactly. Storm was and is still a very classy person who really got the bad end of the deal IMO. But hey, you have a choice right? You can come here or go somewhere else and honestly I have gone to other places if the disrespect reached that level.

Your cool in my book Grandpa. Just dont let offense take you into a senior moment.
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Quoting wxobsvps:
That gap doesn't look very big.
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Quoting txag91met:
ECMWF further west now, right into NYC. Interesting run. I am not a complete buyer of this, but make preparations now!



I've seen several of the models set their sights on NYC - if it does mostly miss the Carolinas, the city could get a pretty good blow.
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877. JeffM
I get the feeling that Bastardi's favorite model is the one that agrees with his track forecast. Doesn't matter which one it is, as long as it does the most damage to the East Coast.
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Quoting chsstormgirl:


Somehow I remember there being adequate warning for Hugo... we knew it was coming our way, or so I thought... was I wrong?


Actually, Savannah was evacuated first...Hugo didn't start making the turn till somewhere around FLA... by the time they evacuated Savannah all those people were on the roads, we were inundated with extra people here...all the roads going south were closed off...Gov Campbell opened the east bound lanes of I26 to get people out because if he had not, there would not have been enough time...
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
Quoting Grandpato4:
I am following the community standards and still some little group of kids is flagging every one of my comments. Until this site gets its CHILDREN under control I am going to be getting my information from other sources.
Grandpa, it's the trolls doing it. It get on my nerves sometimes and I don't see you doing anything wrong.
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Quoting Grandpato4:


I know that is what they are doing one of them mailed me on here earlier today and said they were going to team up to remove all my posts. Then they had the nerve to tell me that I should go sit on the beach because my days were numbered anyway with or without a storm.


That's sick! Their were so many trolls on last PM that I finally left! Don't let them get to ya!
Member Since: August 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 535
Quoting Grandpato4:
I am following the community standards and still some little group of kids is flagging every one of my comments. Until this site gets its CHILDREN under control I am going to be getting my information from other sources.
you'll need a lot more patience around here to stick with it... a few random posts removed for no good reason is a minor irritation compared to other antics in this blog. (Edit: ok, i'll admit it's worse than i thought for you... bummer!)

if you seek information, why be concerned about your own posts...? just lurk around and you'll get All the quality (and poor) information you can possibly digest!! it's pretty clear who the good contributors are. if you follow Too closely, you might also loose bearing on reality. there is always WUmail to ask questions directly to another blogger, without worrying about the question disappearing.
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Quoting UpperLevelLOL:


Dude can we stop with the blog pimping? People who want to follow you can use the directory. Spamming the blog with your self-aggrandizing (not that you need to be bigger) blog posts during a major storm is pretty irresponsible.

If you dont want to watch the video you are not forced to click the link...if you think my link is clogging the blog read some of the ridiculous posts made here!!! Some folks on this blog enjoy an honest opinion with no location bias as to where Irene's affects will be felt!!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
871. Gorty
Quoting txag91met:
ECMWF further west now, right into NYC. Interesting run. I am not a complete buyer of this, but make preparations now!



More of the models may go west as well... not a good situation for us here in the north.
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reed,

do you mean Irene will shift from NW to WNW again?
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Quoting FLweather:
I wonder what the psychic twins are thinking right now! How often do you get a cat 4/cat 5 affecting the entire south east coast?

Psychic twins? LOL. I am not psychic but can still predict that Jerry Falwell will blame it on the gays. Just a little humor, but that's what I am waiting for him to come up with.
I live in FL but not a wishcaster or a westcaster or any of it. Hoping that Irene just goes away and doesn't affect any more people than she already has. I also learn so much from reading this blog most of the time- except for the bickering, it's very enlightening.
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New York
9-1-1

Irene
9-1-1 (Creepy Right?)

I am VERY worried now. This is the first time that I can see that the GFS has shown a storm stronger in the North East than it is in the Carolinas. I have been noticing that opposite where you get a 960s storm in the Outerbanks and a 970s in New York.

Now the GFS says it will be a 958 MB storm which is in the range of pressure for a CAT 3 storm

Photobucket
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, back in for a while.

Reports from the southeastern Bahamas suggest that the storm is doing a fair amount of damage; we are hearing so far of a few full / partial roof loss, some power outage, and downed trees. So far so good in terms of surge and flooding. However, we haven't been able to hear from Acklins and Crooked Island for a couple of hours.

Most of the other Family Island residents along the track of the storm are completing their preparations and getting ready to wait out the storm.

As I drove through Nassau today I notice that many homes and some businesses have not been battened up. I sure hope the population's trust in the forecast track is not in error....

Conditions here are sunny and breezy. I'm sure Thrawst has been keeping you up todate...

Just one thing.... can someone please ask the American media to tone down the melodramatic comments about the Bahamas being "devastated" and "slammed"? It's going to get bad, but let's wait so see for sure that this is what happens, instead of, as Bahamians say, "puttin' mout' on us".... lol



Hey Baha, we say that in the Keys too...cuz. And there is no point. After Andrew CNN reported that the keys were wiped out. Finally some people were able to get in touch with CNN headquarters and told them we weren't and they never announced it. Wasn't sensational enough. So a lot of our Northern relatives were very worried. I am worried about you. Please be in a high, dry, concrete, shuttered bunker. Good luck.
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Just read an post from a former WU blogger and he has been pretty accurate the past 3 years.

He is still calling for a Wilmington to the Outer Banks landfall and then coming up the east coast.

Here is another point to consider...the eye may just pass off the coast by very few miles...still Hurricane force winds, rain, flooding, and even TS force winds will reach well inland even into Charlotte.

I'm not so sure if the argument is where the eye will hit exactly but how NC people will be prepared - especially the coastal residents.

Or is this still wish casting?
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Quoting yonzabam:




A regular poster who was an amateur met and middle aged (StormW) got ganged up on by the ADHD mob last year.


It was quite the feat
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Quoting Grandpato4:
I am following the community standards and still some little group of kids is flagging every one of my comments. Until this site gets its CHILDREN under control I am going to be getting my information from other sources.


Grandpa Dont worry the trolls feed off of it we're still looking at your posts, jsut ignore it and they will stop, this is a really nice place to be once you get used to the occasional annoyance.
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Gulfscottsman was funny - and usually a fair hand at forecasting too.
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Quoting Grandpato4:
This just gets my goat. You young kids think it is funny to flag my posts just because I am old. Well one day you might be old and some young snot may do the same to you. I am just going to have to rely on the tv and leave this place alone.


I think if enough people 'flag' a post, it automatically gets removed, without any oversight by admin.

This means that mischievous juveniles can contact each other to gang up on individuals for a bit of fun.

A regular poster who was an amateur met and middle aged (StormW) got ganged up on by the ADHD mob last year.
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Quoting Crawls:
I am having problems reading some of the posts. The right side is cut-off. I have adjusted view to smallest text but that still doesn't help. It is very difficult to guess at the last few words in each sentence. Can someone help me correct this problem. Thanks


Enable Tools/Compatibility View, then restart.
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ECMWF further west now, right into NYC. Interesting run. I am not a complete buyer of this, but make preparations now!

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Did you see my comment?

Yes the HPC surface analysis map for the next 7 days shows the high staying centered over western Texas, so no break for now at least!!!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
Quoting reedzone:
The westward trend starts now...

Until that ULL over the Carolinas (sorry Presslord) moves away or weakens, a continued WNW motion will continue.



I don't remember that ULL being as pronounced yesterday??
Member Since: August 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 535
Quoting tiggeriffic:


Charleston getting rain right now...guess that is the spot on the map


it's weird, too...just came to Folly from Johns Island...pouring in spots...sunny and beautiful in others...
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
For those just joining us:


Hurricane Irene Video Update


Dude can we stop with the blog pimping? People who want to follow you can use the directory. Spamming the blog with your self-aggrandizing (not that you need to be bigger) blog posts during a major storm is pretty irresponsible.
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Who is removing Grandpato4 posts??? Now, trolls are starting to get on my nerves...
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Quoting SCwannabe:


He is from NE-Maine I believe


The guy I was responding to lives in RI.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


NO thank you please...i was here for hugo...just glad i didn't listen back then and because of that i am vigilant in preparing each and every year...hoping that bermuda high pulls back to the east instead of trending west....


I went through Hugo. My profile pic is what was left of my 2nd row beach house in Garden City, SC after Hugo. The center of the storm actually came in NORTH of Charleston, sparing it the worst of the surge they were expecting. There were no spaghetti lines and models for everyone to see then...it was 1989...none of that technology was around. Just the local weather mets and the NHC. I can't say I remember where the storm was "supposed" to go, but I don't think it was less than 2 hours to prepare. I lived in Charlotte and we watched it all day and night until it roared through our city and tore it to (bleep) 200 miles inland. I was without power for 3 weeks, and I mentioned what happened to our home at the beach, which is better than ever now. My memories of the coverage of that storm recall the great job and tireless effort the local news teams did to make sure everyone was aware and prepared. It was quite a storm, and while Charleston got nailed good, it could have been far worse there if the center came in just south or on top of the city. She was spared.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


We would also need Lefty, he may be lurking, was last year.


I miss lefty. Glad to see StormJunkie is still on from time to time.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Grandpa, it's trending west again. The high is building more west and the weakness is above SC/NC. This is starting to shows landfall between Wilmington and Morehead City for now... keep preparing for the storm and leave for Raleigh tomorrow if you want to play it safe.



i agree with blue. better safe and sorry. and the good news if it doesn't have any effect on you, atleast you got to spend some time and your daughters house, or what not. 40-50 mph winds and still pick up objects to some degree and cause some damage, but if i were you, i would go visit your daughter for a couple of days until this thing is out of your way.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
When are the next set of model runs?
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Quoting Crawls:
I am having problems reading some of the posts. The right side is cut-off. I have adjusted view to smallest text but that still doesn't help. It is very difficult to guess at the last few words in each sentence. Can someone help me correct this problem. Thanks

I have the same problem if I use www.wunderground.com. Try using the old version, classic.wunderground.com. I use IE7 (on my work computer so can't change it)
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The CMC 12Z shows a full-blown Fujiwara and the HWRF 06Z (98I)seems to detect the weakness but doesn't develop a cyclone, as the second low gets absorbed in the stalled front and behaves more like a short-wave. It is possible that Irene leaves enough subsidence in its wake to protect the secondary circulation and allow deepening. The deeper it gets, however, the more likely it detaches from Irene and follows the weakness of the offshore front. The CMC shows the polar vortex receding northwestward and intensifying, essentially retrograde, and this scenario is how you get a NYC landfall. I think this is plausible. The CMC Fujiwara solution drags the system east in total, offsetting the retrograde polar trough. I think this is implausible (20%). The CMC shows how the easterly trend finally ends, and leaves NYC-SNE totally open for business.
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
For those just joining us:


Hurricane Irene Video Update
Did you see my comment?
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Quoting presslord:
just got this message from a friend of CRS in TCI:

Beryl asked me to tell you he's OK, but no phone, internet, power, and to let everyone at Weatherunderground that he is OK. He says it's pretty bad, and according to some pics I've seen on pages of people who still have access - he's right. Sincerely,


First, glad to hear he's ok.

Second, to all you who were (and still are) calling this a fish storm, here's some PEOPLE who have been affected.

They may not be from Florida, but you can bet they're seeing this storm just a little bit differently than you are.
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The westward trend starts now...

Until that ULL over the Carolinas (sorry Presslord) moves away or weakens, a continued WNW motion will continue.

I can't get the image to pop up, sorry but it shows that models for the first time in a while have moved west, about 2 to 3 degrees west.
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Quoting Grandpato4:


As forecasted now I should have said. I realize things change but so far the trend is further east meaning I see less and less from the storm.


The Trend is your Friend... until it ends. I don't like what I see on that latest steering map
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Quoting Crawls:
I am having problems reading some of the posts. The right side is cut-off. I have adjusted view to smallest text but that still doesn't help. It is very difficult to guess at the last few words in each sentence. Can someone help me correct this problem. Thanks
Use something besides IE.. Firefox will handle it.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.