Hurricane Irene Approaches the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:42 AM GMT on August 24, 2011

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As of 2AM EDT, Hurricane Irene was located at 21.3N, 72.6W, 400 miles southeast of Nassau. It was moving west-northwest at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, making it a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Irene has a minimum central pressure of 966 mb. Hurricane warnings have been issued for all of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the Dominican Republic border.

Satellite Views
Figure 1 shows that Irene has a large eye visible in infrared imagery, (26 miles across accoring to a report from the Hurricane Hunters at 130AM) with well-defined outflow cirrus bands. Tuesday evening, TRMM, NASA's tropical research satellite, flew directly overhead Irene, getting a radar scan of the storm using it's downward pointing radar, shown in Figure 2. It is immediately apparent that Irene has well-developed bands of rain showers, with strong storms present in the eyewall.


Figure 1 IR satellite view of Irene taken at 113AM EDT, August 23, 2011


Figure 2 TRMM radar overpass of Irene at 713PM EDT, August 22, 2011. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory

Track Forecast

Irene is forecast to move to the northwest, passing over all of the Bahamas by Thursday evening, then curving to the north. Irene then makes landfall in the US near or at the Outer Banks Saturday afternoon, then traveling along the mid-Atlantic coastline of the US. After Saturday, Irene may pose a threat to Long Island and the New England coastline. However, NHC is quick to remind us that the average forecast error for day 4 is 200 miles, so don't stop your hurricane preparations if you aren't in the immediate area of landfall. It is also important to note that the windfield of Irene is expected to be large, affecting areas distant from the immediate track of Irene's center. Tropical storm forces winds are expected to be found out to at least 150 miles away from Irene's center on Friday afternoon.

NHC is forecasting for Irene to become a major hurricane (winds faster than 110 mph), within 24 hours.


Figure 3 Official track forecast of Irene at 2AM EDT.

Forecast models and adaptive observations
The different forecast models are in fairly good agreement about Irene's track through the Bahamas and along the east coast of the US. The GFDL, a dynamical hurricane forecasting model, which had been a western outlier from the other models is now agreeing with them. When a set of weather models using slighly different initial views of the atmosphere and slightly different ways of simulating how the atmosphere works all agree on a forecast, then meteorlogists tend to believe that the forecast is more likely to occur. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF (wind swath shown in Figure 4) forecasts are nearly identical, which furthur boosts forecaster confidence.

In the 11PM forecast discussion, the NHC forecaster praises the NOAA Gulfstream IV (aka Gonzo) for providing infomation about the atmosphere around Irene that will influence it's track. Looking at the plan of the day valid for today, it will be a busy day for airborne reconnaissance. Three flights for the Air Force hurricane hunters, two flights for the Gulfstream IV, and two flights for NOAA 42, a WP-3D (aka Kermit).


Figure 4 Plot of the maximum sustained winds in mph over the next week from the 00Z ECMWF forecast.

Impacts

In the immediate future, Irene will have a significant impact on the Bahamas and surrounding islands. Hurricane force winds are ongoing over the Turks and Caicos islands and southeastern Bahamas. These locations can expect storm surges that are 5-8 feet above tide levels. The northwestern Bahamas can expect hurricane force winds Thursday, and storm surges that are 7-11 feet above tide levels. The Turks and Caicos islands and all of the Bahamas can expect 6-12 inches of rain over the next two days.

I still think people living along the east coast of the US should closely monitor Irene and review their hurricane preparations. Irene will be a large storm, impacting areas far from the storm center track.

Dr. Masters will have a new blog entry this morning, and Angela Fritz will be covering the afternoon. I'll be back on third shift tonight.

Thanks for reading,

Dr. Rob Carver

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1028. 996tt
Quoting RickWPB:
I think the NHC do a great job. We need to remember that Wx prediction is not an exact science. It's fluid with lots of variables. We have computer models that help speed up the analysis, but we need the PhD's to make the final word. I thank them for their service.

Interesting to note that so far in this satellite/radar loop that Irene is tracking slightly to the right of the cone center line.

14 hr loop


They really are. NHC has gotten much better in just the last couple of years. I think they err on leaving the cone touching shore though on storms like this due to duty to public and politics if they don't warn. That being said, I would imagine the NHC individuals would have this storm even further East and off shore if off record.

The Weather Channel, on the other hand, are a bunch drama queens whose job is to over-hype anything and everything to get people to tune in. Even their tone and inflection (especially the big boned shrilly voice Abrahms) is specifically directed at evoking emotion, fear or excitment. This is exactly why she has the slot she has is her ability to stir emotion and captivate the viewer. Has nothing to do with actual weather.
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Why is it only the US that ends up getting two intermediate advisories?
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Katrina's surge was the result of radius of winds (Ike's, too) far more than past intensity.

As a professional in the field of storm surge modeling, I can tell you that the "cat 5 surge due to previous intensity" is a myth.



The larger the area of intense winds over a shallow body of water, the more water you're able to pile up...
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Quoting mojofearless:


After all the bashing New Orleanians got for not getting out, not being prepared, blah blah blah, it just really yanks my chain to see people like you on here talking about wasting money on supplies, etc etc etc.
YOU LIVE IN A HURRICANE-PRONE AREA. Just like I do. And it is YOUR responsibility to be prepared and self sufficient year after year after year. You should not be whining about wasting money, or glad that you didn't (it's peak season!!!), you should have this budgeted out EVERY year, and you should already have the majority of your supplies stocked by June 1.
I don't mean to come across like a shrew here, but seriously. This is the personal responsibility everyone along the Gulf Coast and Eastern seaboard should be taking seriously every single year. To do otherwise would be like living in Detroit without a snow shovel and sweating every single cold front. Oh! Thank God I didn't waste money on a snow shovel! That blizzard totally missed us and hit Flynt instead! Stupid meteorologists!


If Irene hits major cities in the east, causing billions of dollars in damage, will the rest of the country bash them for living in hurricane prone areas? Will they cry, don't fix it? Will we hear, "We don't need NYC, Boston, etc?"

Those very words were said to those of us living in Louisiana. It didn't matter that NOLA survived Katrina, the levees failing is what brought the city down.

I pray those on the East Coast don't have to deal with Irene and her aftermath.
You bashed us, our way of life. We want only for you to survive and not have to deal with what we did. God be with you.
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1024. HiWay
Quoting atmoaggie:
Katrina's surge was the result of radius of winds (Ike's, too) far more than past intensity.

As a professional in the field of storm surge modeling, I can tell you that the "cat 5 surge due to previous intensity" is a myth.


Thank you. So the larger the wind field, especially a wide swath of strong winds instead of a small area of intense winds is far more telling for a large surge?
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1110 miles....does anyone know about the storm surge models?
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1020. HCW
IF anybody needs Wind info for there location + duration of the winds please let me know


Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
In fact we have another west jog in progress..That weakness is not going to last for too much longer


Quoting cat5hurricane:

Exactly. And latest indications are that she could in fact moves even slower, which would make her more vulnerable to the aforementioned.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Exactly. And latest indications are that she could in fact moves even slower, which would make her more vulnerable to the aforementioned.


I've been saying this could happen for the past 24 hours but many berated me for even mentioning FL. Let's see if anything comes of it...
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Well if you don't like the current 5 day cone for actual tropical cyclones, you are going to hate the possible introduction next year of a 5 day Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO).

CAUTION: 11 megabyte pdf file
Possible Genesis Enhancements


sometimes 'something' is worse than 'nothing'...some things really don't need to be improved upon
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No problem press :)
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000
WTNT24 KNHC 241438
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1500 UTC WED AUG 24 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

INTERESTS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 73.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 45SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 73.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 73.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.4N 74.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.1N 76.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 25SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.2N 76.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 25SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.3N 77.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 33.2N 76.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 38.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 45.0N 69.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 73.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
Quoting Floodman:


Exactly; all that "I'm a man and a man don't leave his stuff" can end actually meaning "A man has to die with his stuff when he don't understand limitations"


'I have NEVER seen a Macho dead man,' was what I would say to guys who wanted to come off all manly like they could take sitting out a 'cane. Someone quoted Ron White late last night, but it bears repeating - "It's not that the wind is blowing, it'swhat the wind is blowing."
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In the last 8 hours Irene has move 1.1 degrees North by 1.3 degrees west.

02 am position 21.3 North 72.6 West
10 am position 22.4 North 73.9 West

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Quoting HiWay:
How true is it that a storm keeps it's surge based of of its maximum intensity and for how long? I'm sure it must diminish some. Historically, Katrina being the most notable example weakened significantly before landfall but had the surge or very close to the surge generated from it's peak intensity.
Katrina's surge was the result of radius of winds (Ike's, too) far more than past intensity.

As a professional in the field of storm surge modeling, I can tell you that the "cat 5 surge due to previous intensity" is a myth.
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Irene jumps west in latest frame right towards Crooked and Acklins islands

Irene Rainbow Loop
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Quoting presslord:
you should all ignore Floodman...that guy's nothin' but trouble...


Oh yeah? Well...well...you're ugly and your mom dresses you funny...

On the other hand, I'd imagine you're happy you don't live on Ocracoke...
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


aprox 450 miles


THAT'S what I'm lookin' for!!! Thanks!
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Quoting alvarig1263:


The atlantic ridge is buidling back west stronger and quicker than had been expected over the past few days. With Irene's slow speed of 9 MPH and a ridge building west, and the texas ridge also pulling out to the west it could allow Irene to move closer to FL, though a direct landfall is not likely.

Exactly. And latest indications are that she could in fact moves even slower, which would make her more vulnerable to the aforementioned.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
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Quoting yonzabam:
That's THREE times I've tried to put Jason on ignore, because his embedded youtube vid is mucking up the blog on IE and he's still there! Can't get rid of him.


Dont hate on the guy too much. He is clearly one of those individuals with "Special Needs"
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...IRENE TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...EYE MOVING OVER CROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...
11:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 22.4°N 73.9°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
000
WTNT34 KNHC 241442
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...EYE MOVING OVER CROOKED AND ACKLINS
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 73.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

INTERESTS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
BAHAMAS. A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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Quoting presslord:


What I wanna know is...How far west of NY is Miami?


aprox 450 miles
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HPC Extended Discussion-Will it or wont it turn Irene off the coast of NC..only time will tell

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE TO AFFECT THE NC OUTER BANKS INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...

DUE IN PART TO MORE FREQUENT SAMPLING OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SURROUNDING HURRICANE IRENE BY MULTIPLE AIRPLANE
PLATFORMS ALONG WITH CONTINUATION OF SUPPLEMENTAL UPPER AIR RAOBS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS EVERY 6 HOURS...THE MODEL
SOLUTION SPREAD FOR THE TRACK OF IRENE HAS BECOME SMALLER AND
SMALLER...AND IN FACT COULD BE CONSIDERED EXCELLENT FOR THE LONGER
RANGES. ONE OF THE LARGEST REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD HOWEVER IS THE EXACT SPEED AND STRENGTH OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN CANADA...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY DAY 3/SAT AND PICK UP
IRENE
. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE NEARLY CONVERGED WITH THE DETAILS OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH THE GFS ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SUPPORTED BY
THE CANADIAN...THUS ACCELERATING IRENE NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF.
HOWEVER...RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY WITH THE MORE UNCERTAIN HIGHER
LATITUDE FLOW IS TO BE EXPECTED...WITH RECENT GFS/ECMWF 4-CYCLE
LAGGED AVERAGE FORECASTS SHOWING 500 MB HEIGHT VARIABILITIES
AVERAGING 50 TO 70 DECAMETERS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DIFFERING INFLUENCES ON IRENE. BUT FOR
NOW...
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12Z NAM indicates a much slower track north of the 30 degree latitude. Could spell trouble for the Upper SC / Lower NC coastlines.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
997. flsky
It will also tell you L and L for each loc. You can calculate from that.

Quoting presslord:


What I wanna know is...How far west of NY is Miami?
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Quoting CloudGatherer:
What really worries me about this storm is the potential for a New England landfall. Irene is a fairly large hurricane, with an expanding windfield. I don't think her winds will be all that high by the time she reaches that far north, but I'm extremely worried about the potential storm surge - historically, the deadliest and most devastating feature of northeastern landfalls.

Where can I find the ACE for the storm? It's a better surge indicator than the peak eyewall winds.

As of 11:00 AM, Irene's ACE is now up to 7.9225.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13733
Quoting Grandpato4:


There is a placeholder. My comment was simply that a certain island was only accessible by ferry. I do not understand how that is inappropriate.


I didn't see it...the other issue here is (and it may have changed) that the admin isn't in here monitoring every post; they rely in many cases on the people in here reporting inappropriate behavior. Like many forums, a post that gets flagged enough is removed, regardless of content.

Sorry you're having trouble; I've been banned a number of times for very trivial infractions and been left alone for absolutely blatant abuses so sometime the actions don't make sense but as system run by people there is a tendency for errors to occur

Hang in there
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That's THREE times I've tried to put Jason on ignore, because his embedded youtube vid is mucking up the blog on IE and he's still there! Can't get rid of him.
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Quoting hahaguy:
When is She suppose to make her NW turn?
Soon!!!!!!
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Well if you don't like the current 5 day cone for actual tropical cyclones, you are going to hate the possible introduction next year of a 5 day Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO).

CAUTION: 11 megabyte pdf file
Possible Genesis Enhancements
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11305
Aussiecold & CarolinaHurricanes87


Either of you one bet that Irene's eye passes within 250 miles of Miami?
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Good thing she started her NW turn
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Quoting 800733:
hi all i'm new to all this. watching the news and the weather man says the BH could move back west and closer the FL, the last thing I want is that. so is he seeing something the modles don't?

thanks
Ang


The atlantic ridge is buidling back west stronger and quicker than had been expected over the past few days. With Irene's slow speed of 9 MPH and a ridge building west, and the texas ridge also pulling out to the west it could allow Irene to move closer to FL, though a direct landfall is not likely.
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Quoting hamla:
are their any ham radio operators on wu or did amateur radio go away via computers,cell phones back in the day we were the only ones that could pass on info from distant places for health and welfare when storms hit and power was out.
any comments?

"N1RG" call sign amateur radio operator since 1957


They inveted the internet and cell phones...
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Quoting hamla:
are their any ham radio operators on wu or did amateur radio go away via computers,cell phones back in the day we were the only ones that could pass on info from distant places for health and welfare when storms hit and power was out.
any comments?

"N1RG" call sign amateur radio operator since 1957



that's something I always wanted to do...but never got around to
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986. HCW
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
Quoting hamla:
are their any ham radio operators on wu or did amateur radio go away via computers,cell phones back in the day we were the only ones that could pass on info from distant places for health and welfare when storms hit and power was out.
any comments?

"N1RG" call sign amateur radio operator since 1957


AB1JV, first licensed 1976
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984. HiWay
How true is it that a storm keeps it's surge based of of its maximum intensity and for how long? I'm sure it must diminish some. Historically, Katrina being the most notable example weakened significantly before landfall but had the surge or very close to the surge generated from it's peak intensity.
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Quoting 800733:
hi all i'm new to all this. watching the news and the weather man says the BH could move back west and closer the FL, the last thing I want is that. so is he seeing something the modles don't?

thanks
Ang


You must be watching WSVN 7. It's there job to scare everyone into a panic. I don't know why they are allowed to call themselves a news program.
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Re: the discussion of 3-day and 5-day cones

Irene's current position, as well as the entire north-of-Hispaniola (especially NE of Hispaniola) track wasn't in the earlier 3 day cones:


(Click for full size)


Not saying a thing about the NHC, here. The (usually) most reliable model solutions on Irene were very misleading.

For example, after she became a TS:
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Quoting presslord:
also....as for Emergency folks wanting a 7 day forecast...it's silly......even now, with a 5 day forecast, FEMA is spending millions hauling crap all over the Eastern Seaboard...it's like a Marx Bros movie...


I'd like to see them go back to 3. If they have a special reason to increase the lead time for a major metropolitan area, they have the ability to do it ahead of that time but it would save a lot of money in resources, and 3 days is plenty enough to warn people. Especially since not everyone needs to evacuate to the next state. You really only have to get far enough away from the coast to where surge is not an issue. If you're in a well constructed building you can shelter in place. It's a massive waste of money watching millions of people evacuate hundreds of miles. Not to mention a mistrust is formed every time that occurs and there is a miss..just IMO
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Quoting 800733:
hi all i'm new to all this. watching the news and the weather man says the BH could move back west and closer the FL, the last thing I want is that. so is he seeing something the modles don't?

thanks
Ang

No that is still a possibility. How far west is even more uncertain. Landfall is FL very highly unlikely, but the chances of experiencing TS force winds could increase if she moves as little as 30 miles to the west.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
What a monster Irene is, moving NW, finally made the turn,hope everyone in her path is prepared, Irene could be a history making hurricane, JMO.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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