Hurricane Irene slides toward Bahamas; Strong earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
Hurricane Irene is a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale as of 5pm EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum central pressure of 976 mb. Irene is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph, and continues to impact Hispaniola. Satellite imagery shows a strong rain band continuing to linger over the eastern Dominican Republic on the southeast side of Irene, but wind speeds appear to have decreased substantially in the country since this morning. Winds are gusting to around 50 mph in the Turks and Caicos Islands this afternoon. Wind shear is currently around 10-20 knots in the vicinity, which could delay intensification over the next 48 hours. The strongest winds and thunderstorm activity remain on the northwest side, and the eye that was visible on satellite earlier today has become obscured by new thunderstorm activity near the center of the hurricane. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found a minimum central pressure of 978 mb and a large wind field. In their 2pm EDT fix, the National Hurricane Center estimated that tropical storm-force winds extended 180 nautical miles from the center in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane. A NOAA Gulfstream plane (Gonzo) is currently flying Irene and providing dropsonde data, something that was critical in gaining model consensus yesterday. A NOAA P-3 (Kermit) is also on its way to the hurricane to provide dropsonde data, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Hurricane Irene at 4:45pm EDT. Image credit: NOAA.
Track forecast for Hurricane Irene
Models are in better agreement on the track forecast for Irene today, although the GFDL and HWRF continue to be the western outliers. Both of these models are forecasting Irene to make landfall near the Outer Banks of North Carolina on an almost due north track. The rest of the global models continue to slide every so slightly east in their forecast track, with some not making landfall until the hurricane is as far north as Long Island. This afternoon, the ECMWF, which has been performing well this season, forecasts Irene to brush the Outer Banks before sliding up the east coast toward New York. The official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center is similar this afternoon. They're expecting Irene to take a more central track through the Bahamas over the next 48 hours and make contact with the Outer Banks on Saturday afternoon, with a second landfall in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. Again, it's critical to note that the errors in the track forecast 4 and 5 days out are quite large, and also that the consensus in the models over the past couple of days has been to nudge the track eastward, which can be seen in this track graphic archive.
Intensity forecast for Hurricane Irene
Despite the slight weakening that happened today, Irene is still expected to reach major hurricane status (category 3+) in the next 36 hours as it moves away from the Greater Antilles and into warm "open" water. The models tend to agree on a maximum intensity of category 3, however, the GFDL is the upper outlier, and is suggesting a category 4 on Friday. The intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a wind speed increase to 125 mph (category 3) by Thursday. Irene will surely be a very intense hurricane by the time it nears the Mid-Atlantic.
Magnitude 5.8 earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
A relatively large and shallow earthquake struck the Mid-Atlantic just before 2pm EDT this afternoon, and shaking was felt up and down the east coast and as far west as Ohio. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the epicenter was located 5 miles southwest of Mineral, Virginia, and was 3.7 miles deep—a very shallow earthquake. Buildings were evacuated all over the Mid-Atlantic, including the Pentagon, the White House, and NCEP, but have since been reopened. The National Cathedral in Washington D.C. was apparently significantly damaged in the earthquake. National Mall monuments and memorials have closed for the afternoon. Light aftershocks have been reported by people in the region, and the USGS has reported at least one aftershock (a 2.8 in magnitude).
Figure 2. "Did you feel it?" map from the USGS. Shaking reports from today's earthquake can be submitted to the USGS here.
This earthquake appears to be the strongest to occur in Virginia since May 31, 1897, when a magnitude 6 (approximately) struck Giles County. Reportedly, shaking was felt from Georgia to Pennsylvania and west to Indiana and Kentucky, which is an area that covers approximately 725,000 square miles. It's likely that this quake will have a similar extent when all the reports come in.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Yes.
However there are two Hebert Boxes. Leave the first r out.
Yes
They are expecting potential 11 ft storm surges there.
5,000 skyscrapers x average of 1,000 windows = potential of 5,000,000 panes of glass being broken and once the glass is broken there is nothing stopping the winds from cleaning out the entire building. Structures likely wouldn't fall, you're correct, but for most buildings to lose their windows alone would be a billion dollar disaster. Flooding the subways would be another one entirely. As another poster already pointed out the 1992 flooding from a nor'easter caused between 1-2 billion dollars worth of damage. Any hurricane hitting near New York will be a billion dollar disaster and would be very dangerous period end of story.
It happens :)
WIND GUSTS AND RAINFALL REPORTS
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2003
...THIS IS AN UPDATED REPORT OF PEAK WIND GUSTS AND RAINFALL FROM
TROPICAL STORM ISABEL IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
DATA WAS TAKEN FROM AUTOMATED GAGES AT 10 AM.
LOCATION PEAK WIND/TIME LOWEST PRESSURE STORM RAINFALL
SPEED/DIRECTION /SEA LEVEL/
ALTOONA 43 MPH/040 AT 1229 AM 29.49 AT 404 AM 1.77
BRADFORD 38 MPH/090 AT 656 AM 29.56 AT 733 AM 0.28
CAPITAL CITY 58 MPH/130 AT 143 AM 29.62 AT 113 AM 0.86
CLEARFIELD 41 MPH/040 AT 204 AM 29.54 AT 526 AM 0.62
WILLIAMSPORT 52 MPH/110 AT 441 AM 29.62 AT 443 AM 0.25
JOHNSTOWN 37 MPH/060 AT 101 AM 29.46 AT 502 AM 1.47
MIDDLETOWN 60 MPH/120 AT 117 AM 29.62 AT 109 AM 1.32
SELINSGROVE 31 MPH/080 AT 143 AM /PRESSURE UNAVBL/ 0.38
YORK 44 MPH/120 AT 201 AM 29.61 AT 203 AM 1.43
DUBOIS 37 MPH/070 AT 106 AM 29.50 AT 654 AM 0.34
LANCASTER 53 MPH/120 AT 237 AM 29.66 AT 234 AM 1.13
STATE COLLEGE
(UNV) 38 MPH/110 AT 4 AM /PRESSURE UNAVBL/ 1.34
anytime sarah
I still think you don't understand that all of the roads in new york city have a concrete base 1' with rebar. that's not going to fail right away.
do you really think major metropolitan areas don't have backup generators for their pump stations? nyc didn't have major problems when they had their blackout...
Orca!!! Long time! How ya been?
Looks like that pesky western high has been moving west at a pretty steady rate today.
Looks to retrograde southwestward and out of the way...
I'd be surprised if it affects the steering to the left 'cause it is a shallow upper low that won't affect the steering layer of Irene...if it gets close enough...may shear Irene a little...if far enough...it will enhance Irene's outlfow and help it to strengthen further...
Meanwhile...in honor of those who are riding Irene out in the Bahamas without power...just ate Chunky Soup STRAIGHT out of the can!
Upper-level winds shouldn't have much effect on Irene or her itensification. The fact that she has formed an eye and is building a solid eyewall area will protect her core from any shear that's affecting her now...
Yes
Puttering along... watching the weather... and hysteria and panic... same same
That's like saying the Mississippi River flooding event earlier this year was only because of how high the water was. Irregardless of what property is valued at, a billion dollar disaster costs a billion dollars.
LOL LOL LOL
BTW, your soup should be in honor of TCI riders-out, so far at least....
Not funny.
ok, smarty pants, do you come from the future??? know it all!
I'll laugh at you if it happens...
Yeah used it before, comes in handy this time of year...
That's not how shear works. There will be 10-15 kts of shear from the SW and W and that will impede outflow on the west side. I'm not downcasting. I just don't see Irene getting much below 28". Not like Earl.
I wouldn't be shocked if Irene got down to 945 mb and made Cat 4 for an advisory or two, but I think she will probably peak at an upper Cat 3.
No model I looked at makes this a fish hurricane. They all say its going to land somewhere in the US East Coast, but like 5-6 days from now. Lots can change before then. There really aren't any powerful fronts coming through the US that would carry it away and over ride the ATL ridge though and that Ridge looks stronger and stronger on every run. This surely will impact anyone on the East Coast from NC to Maine in some fashion, even if it doesn't landfall right on top of you, you're going to see very high winds and rain up and down the East Coast no matter what at this point. Major Hurricanes can have HUGE wind fields with hurricane force winds extending for 50-100 miles (or more!).
during Katrina deployment, I ate allot of soup (healthy request has less coagulated fat) and lived in a ten for nearly 5 months in the Gulfport area.
I'm stealing it :)
Don't think so....see post 2133....
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