Irene pounds the Dominican Republic, heads for the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:32 PM GMT on August 23, 2011

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Hurricane Irene is pounding the north coast of the Dominican Republic this morning with tropical storm-force winds and torrential rains, as the storm continues to head west-northwest towards the Bahama Islands. Puerto Plata on the north coast of the Dominican Republic reported sustained winds of 58 mph at 5am local time this morning, with heavy rain. In the Turks and Caicos Islands ahead of Irene, winds have gusted to 42 - 49 mph this morning on Providenciales at personal weather stations at the Regent Grand and at Pine Cay. The latest hurricane hunter eye report at 10:38am EDT found a central pressure of 980 mb, and top surface winds of 85 mph using their SFMR instrument. The plane had not finished sampling the storm yet.

Yesterday, Irene hit Puerto Rico as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds, reaching hurricane strength as it emerged into the Atlantic northwest of the capital of San Juan. No deaths or major injuries have been reported thus far from the islands, though the storm knocked out power to 1 million residents of Puerto Rico, including the entire island Vieques; 28% of Puerto Rico had no running water Monday afternoon. Billionaire Richard Branson's 8-bedroom mansion on private Necker Island in the British Virgin Islands was hit by lightning during the storm and burned down, and Branson relates on his blog how actress Kate Winslett had to carry out his 90-year-old mother from the main house to safety. Haiti has thus far escaped heavy rains from Irene, though the main danger comes today as the storm makes its closest approach to Haiti.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene, showing a hint of an eye starting to pop out.

Track forecast for Irene
Yesterday's dropsonde mission by the NOAA jet helped significantly narrow the uncertainty in the 1 - 3 day forecasts from the computer models. Irene will track through the Turks and Caicos islands today, the central Bahamas on Wednesday, and northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. However, the models still diverge considerably on their 4 - 5 days forecasts. One reliable model, the UKMET, takes Irene into South Carolina, while several others have the hurricane missing the Southeast U.S. completely, passing just offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Saturday. The official NHC forecast of a landfall along the North Carolina coast is a reasonable compromise, though with the models trending more eastwards of late, I would favor a landfall farther east than NHC is predicting. Irene will continue north or curve northeast after its encounter with North Carolina, and the hurricane could be a dangerous and destructive storm for the entire mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

A research project funded by NOAA known as the Joint Hurricane Testbed has produced a remarkable number of tools now in operational use at the National Hurricane Center to improve hurricane forecasts and warnings. One of these projects, called "Prediction of Consensus TC Track Forecast Error and Correctors to Improve Consensus TC Track Forecasts", was an effort by Dr. Jim Goerss at the Navy Research Lab to improve the accuracy of the NHC "cone of uncertainty" (AKA the "Cone of Death") showing where a storm is expected to track 2/3 of the time. The radius of the circles that make up the cone are based on error statistics of the official NHC forecast over the past five years. We can expect in certain situations, such as when the models are in substantial disagreement, a consensus forecast made using these models will have much greater than average errors. Since the NHC typically bases their forecast on a consensus forecast made using a combination of reliable hurricane forecasting models, it is instructive to view the "GPCE" (Goerss Prediction Consensus Error) circles to see if the uncertainty cone should be smaller or larger than usual. The consensus forecast I'll look at is called "TVCN", and is constructed by averaging the track forecasts made by most of (or all) of these models: GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and UKMET. In the case of this morning's 12 UTC (8am EDT) runs of these models, here is what the radius of the "cone of uncertainty" should be, in nautical miles:

12 hours: 27 nm
24 hours: 44 nm
36 hours: 64 nm
48 hours: 81 nm
72 hours: 137 nm
96 hours: 201 nm
120 hours: 308 nm

And here is the radius of NHC's "cone of uncertainty" for their official forecast, based on the average errors for the past five years:

12 hours: 36 nm
24 hours: 59 nm
36 hours: 79 nm
48 hours: 98 nm
72 hours: 144 nm
96 hours: 190 nm
120 hours: 239 nm

So, the GPCE error estimates are showing that the latest forecasts for Irene are better than average over the 1 - 3 day time period, and worse than average for 4 - 5 days. Note the error estimate of 308 nm (355 miles) for today's 5-day forecast. That's more than the distance from New York City to Boston, suggesting that we really don't know what portions of New England might be at most risk from Irene. It is still quite possible the core of the hurricane could miss New England.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Latest microwave data suggests that Irene does not have full eyewall; a gap exists in the southwest side. With wind shear now a moderate 10 - 20 knots, Irene may have trouble intensifying today. The hurricane is embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next four days. With water temperatures very warm, 29 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a Category 3 storm sometime in the next two days. Satellite loops show that Irene is steadily growing in size, which will protect the storm against major disruption by wind shear. The storm is lacking much development on its southwest side, where the presence of Hispaniola is interfering with development. Once Irene pulls away from Hispaniola tonight, intensification is more likely.

Irene's impact on the Turks and Caicos Islands
Heavy rains from Irene have already reached the Turks and Caicos Islands, which form the southeastern portion of the Bahama Islands chain. The last hurricane to affect the Turks and Caicos islands was Hurricane Ike of 2008. Ike's northern eyewall devastated Grand Turk, Salt Cay, South Caicos, and a few other smaller cays when the storm was at Category 4 strength. Ike then weakened slightly to a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds before making a direct hit on Great Inagua Island. Approximately 70-80% of the houses on Great Inagua Island sustained roof damage, and 25% had major damage or were destroyed. The Morton Salt factory on the island was forced to halt operations as Ike damaged its offices and loading docks. A few West Indian flamingos were killed by Ike but most of the 50,000 flamingos in Inagua National Park--the world's largest colony--survived by taking shelter within the park's mangroves or flying to other islands. Risk Management Solutions estimates that total damage costs are between $50 and $200 million (USD) for the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. Irene will be weaker than Ike, so will not do as much damage. The main threat from Irene will be wind damage.


Figure 2. The path of Hurricane Ike of 2008 took it through the Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds (pink colors).

Irene's impact on the Bahama Islands
Irene will pass through the length of the Bahama Island chain and cause widespread destruction on those islands unfortunate enough to encounter the storm's right front eyewall. Currently, it appears that Crooked, Cat, Exuma, Eleuthera, and Abaco Islands are all in danger of experiencing the eyewall of Irene, which will be capable of bringing storm surges of 9 - 13 feet. The current forecast puts the Bahamas' two most developed islands--New Providence and Grand Bahama--on the weaker west side of Irene, where Category 1 hurricane winds are likely. These winds will likely cause considerable but not devastating damage. Irene will come very close to the capital city of Nassau on New Providence Island on Thursday morning, home to 70% of the population of the Bahamas. Nassau has received direct hits from three major hurricanes since 1851--the Category 4 Nassau Hurricane of 1926, which killed 287 people, a Category 4 hurricane in 1866 that killed 387 people, and a Category 3 hurricane in August 1949. The island is vulnerable to high storm surges--a ten-foot storm surge is theoretically possible on the south shore of Nassau in a Category 3 hurricane. However, the south shore of the island is relatively undeveloped, and the city of Nassau and Paradise Island are mostly higher than ten feet in elevation. A much higher storm surge of 20 feet is possible along the southwest shore of Exuma Island, but again, this shore is not heavily developed.


Figure 3. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 3 hurricane with 120 - 125 mph winds would push a storm surge in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 3 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image.

Irene a potential multi-billion dollar disaster for New England and the mid-Atlantic
Though it is still possible the core of Irene will miss the U.S., the current NHC official forecast would mean that Irene would bring destructive flash flooding, significant beach damage, and widespread power outages due to tree damage along the entire U.S. coast from North Carolina to Maine, costing several billion dollars. If Irene ends up skirting the Outer Banks of North Carolina and not significantly weakening, then plowing through the mid-Atlantic and New England states as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, it could become one of the ten most damaging hurricanes in history. The latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFS model puts Irene ashore in Southeast Massachusetts on Sunday afternoon as a large storm with a central pressure of 974 mb. The latest run of the ECMWF model has Irene with a central pressure of 964 mb over Chesapeake Bay, and 972 mb over New Jersey. These central pressures correspond to strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane strengths, and are similar to what Hurricane Floyd or 1999 had when it moved up the mid-Atlantic coast after hitting North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane. Floyd was the 14th most damaging hurricane in history, with total damages estimated at $9.2 billion (2010 dollars.) Most of the damage was in North Carolina, which experienced its worst flooding on record. If the GFS and ECMWF models are correct, Irene could easily be a $10 billion hurricane, causing widespread damage along a long section of heavily populated coast. The most damaging Northeast U.S. hurricane of all time was Hurricane Agnes of 1972, with damages estimated at $11.8 billion (2010 dollars.) Currently, it appears that Irene will hit North Carolina on Saturday, and New England on Sunday. I strongly urge all residents of the coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts to assess their hurricane preparedness immediately, and anticipate the possibility of hurricane conditions this weekend.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are two tropical waves far out in the eastern Atlantic, Invest 90L and Invest 98L, that NHC is giving 20% chances of developing into tropical depressions by Thursday. At present, the long-range models are showing that both of these disturbances will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Texas/Oklahoma heat wave sets all-time 100° records
The unprecedented heat wave gripping Texas and Oklahoma set several new all-time heat records yesterday. The high temperature hit 101° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, the 22nd consecutive day of 100°+ heat and 33rd day of 100°+ heat in the city. Both are all-time records for the city. Oklahoma City recorded its 51st day of 100°+ temperatures yesterday, breaking the record for most such days in year, set previously in 1980. Temperature records for Oklahoma City date back to 1891.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
Ragged eye of Irene
Hurricane Irene
Tragic (rlwhipkey)
This is the scene around Lake Sam Rayburn. Dead fish every 20 yards or so and dead fresh water clams everywhere. The lake is 11 feet low and is losing about an inch a day.
Tragic

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Quoting NoVaForecaster:
HOLY * EARTHQUAKE it just scared the crap out of me, never felt one before!


felt it here too!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16913
Quoting IFuSAYso:
earth quake in DC


been there, done that in California when i was in the Navy...no thank you please
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Quoting ecrugger:


I remember Isabel. Was lucky and only without power for 24 hours. Had friends in Chesapeake without power for two weeks. I wonder when the locals are going to start realizing what this COULD become?


Our lunch time local news report was ridiculous. The entire time was " models trending further east " thats all they spoke of? What about what the NHC track is doing, why do weather dudes on TV rely so much on the models,, what about gut feelings and there training? Ya know sniff the dirt! lol
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Whole house went back and forth for 6 or 8 seconds. Never seen that here before.
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We just had an earthquake in Clayton. WTH?!?!
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EQ in virgina, 5.8 preliminary, felt here in NYC for a few seconds.
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Quoting Relix:


Actually the NHC declared it a Hurricane OVER Puerto Rico. There were hurricane winds reported inland as well. So yes, it was a hurricane. Also! Hurricane Winds were reported BEFORE landfall by the HHs


They declared it a hurricane to the north of Puerto Rico.

The wind history chart does not show hurricane winds in Puerto Rico, this blog we are commenting on specifically states that there were no hurricane winds in Puerto Rico and I have not seen any news stories that state a specific hurricane speed measurement in PR. Also, the fact that there were no deaths or significant injuries is an indicator that the winds were not that strong.

Feel free to post a link if you have any information that disagrees with this.
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Quoting Levi32:
A track east of everyone is something to hope and pray for, but nobody should feel at all safe right now along the eastern seaboard from North Carolina northward. This is basically Earl from last year shifted 100 miles farther west, and it may not be pretty. It's been a long time since these folks have been hit, but it can't last forever, and it may end here. 4 days is a long time, and things could still change, for better or worse.


Levi,

am i correct to assume with the current path that the NHC is forecasting for eastern NC that wilmington would only receive 34 knots of wind speed if that path came to be true?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16913
Quoting cloudburst2011:



well i guess you didnt read my post i said it was going to be a sea rider 70%,,,i also said it has a 30% chance of clipping the cape hatteras area of n carolina not a direct hit but a brush by...im glad i cleared that up...


Sir, What are the chances of Irene making a direct hit in the FL keys?
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


yeah...hey flood, he called me a troll...roflmbo


Yeah, it took a great deal for me not to blasty whoever this is; in the final analysis I figured that pleasure should have been reserved for you.
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Quoting IFuSAYso:
earth quake in DC


5.8 reportedly
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Just felt the my house shaking here in Sneads Ferry North Carolina
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Earthquake at USGS Site

Link
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It is very rare for SE FL to get hit with hurricanes. Since 1950 we have only been hit 10 times. That includes the 4 storms of the crazy season of 04 and 05. If you combine those 4 storms into 1 due to the fact that it was not normal at all, we average 1 storm every 10 years. We still have another 4 years before we are due for another one. Rest easy Florida casters, Irene is not ours.
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Earthquake Details
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude 5.8 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time Tuesday, August 23, 2011 at 17:51:03 UTC
Tuesday, August 23, 2011 at 01:51:03 PM at epicenter

Location 37.875°N, 77.908°W
Depth 6 km (3.7 miles) set by location program
Region VIRGINIA
Distances 15 km (9 miles) S (179°) from Mineral, VA
18 km (12 miles) SSE (154°) from Louisa, VA
26 km (16 miles) ENE (58°) from Columbia, VA
54 km (34 miles) NW (314°) from Richmond, VA
139 km (87 miles) SW (214°) from Washington, DC

Location Uncertainty Error estimate not available
Parameters NST= 17, Nph= 17, Dmin=59.5 km, Rmss=0.33 sec, Gp=173°,
M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=1
Member Since: August 18, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 1606
Quoting mattw479:
GGGGGGGGEEEEEEEEEEzzzzz.....Feels like I am playing cards with my brothers kids or something in here....BACK ON TOPIC PLEASE!!!!


lolll easy Dole...
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Quoting presslord:

ha..wunderground needs to use this quote to sell shirts
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Thank you Tigger! back to work for a bit.
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that was the weirdest feeling in the entire world, holy moly, never experienced one of those before, cant imagine a big one.
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USGS report

Magnitude 5.8 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time

* Tuesday, August 23, 2011 at 17:51:03 UTC
* Tuesday, August 23, 2011 at 01:51:03 PM at epicenter

Location 37.875°N, 77.908°W
Depth 6 km (3.7 miles) set by location program
Region VIRGINIA
Distances

* 15 km (9 miles) S (179°) from Mineral, VA
* 18 km (12 miles) SSE (154°) from Louisa, VA
* 26 km (16 miles) ENE (58°) from Columbia, VA
* 54 km (34 miles) NW (314°) from Richmond, VA
* 139 km (87 miles) SW (214°) from Washington, DC
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GGGGGGGGEEEEEEEEEEzzzzz.....Feels like I am playing cards with my brothers kids or something in here....BACK ON TOPIC PLEASE!!!!
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earth quake in DC
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Betsy was heading for Coasts of North & South Carolina and decided to come back and hit South Miami. Of course that was last century and we didn't know a lot about storms in those days.


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Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI






At first I thought harvey had formed into a cat 1 in the EPAC, then I clicked. Hurricane Beatriz? Something is messed up Orca, you should look into that.

Also, I sense a ban hammer coming down soon. Please, calm down everyone. No sense bickering over every wobble.

Irene really wants to intensify, but will be feeling the effects of hispaniola most of the day. Once it moves away sometime tonight, it's all systems go.
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610. bwi
Minor earthquake now in Washington DC. WTF?
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...you know, if some in here would just switch from tighty whitey's to boxers, they would be a little more mellow...
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A repost from earlier...hopefully I'm not alone in finding the progression of the dynamical models interesting.

Never thought I'd be saying this, until the model trends over the last few days became evident...

Looks like CMC and N-GFDL/NOGAPS were the first to track over the east and may have been spot on earlier than any others. GFDL, HWRF, GFS were slow to shift with conditions, thereby confusing the matter in the GoM and then FL direction.

When is the last time the Navy models were spot on and GFDL and UKMET were the least useful for an NW Atlantic system?

The progression of "Late Cycle" tracks over the last 2.5 days:

(click for full size)
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Quoting Detrina:
LOL I can't tell which way the thing is going, I am very much a sucker for that optical illusion effect that goes on.

I trust several people on here to tell me which way it's moving, since I have no clue so I will ask one of them:).

Patrap...which way is this thing moving please?

thanks:)


Patrap said just a bit ago that for the last hour and a half it was moving <------ dat way
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I believe we just had an earthquake here. (Kill Devil Hills NC)???? Anyone else feel it?
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Quoting marknmelb:


My co-worker and I were watching the radar from work around 6:00 am that morning. YOU could clearly see Charlie was headed towards the Ft. Myers area and NOT Tampa. We couldn't figure out why they were saying Tamps when it was only 3-4 hrs from Ft. Myers. I called a few friends in the area and woke them up and get out of there. They were glad I did. Their home was obliterated. So never say never on ANY storm until it passes by. Then remember Jeanne ....
Yeah and the certain stillness in the air alone could have told you something just doesn't seem right here, even Jim Cantore noted it the night before, and some of the local mets in Tampa were saying don't discount a track like Donna with an early turn.
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On another note, we just had an earthquake in DC!
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I think Irene may have just closed off her eye wall or is very close to it:

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A track east of everyone is something to hope and pray for, but nobody should feel at all safe right now along the eastern seaboard from North Carolina northward. This is basically Earl from last year shifted 100 miles farther west, and it may not be pretty. It's been a long time since these folks have been hit, but it can't last forever, and it may end here. 4 days is a long time, and things could still change, for better or worse.
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LOL I can't tell which way the thing is going, I am very much a sucker for that optical illusion effect that goes on.

I trust several people on here to tell me which way it's moving, since I have no clue so I will ask one of them:).

Patrap...which way is this thing moving please?

thanks:)
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I think I just felt an earthquake in Arlington, VA. Very off topic, but it was strong.
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Storms can do strange things.

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Krycek1984
Are you familiar with the concepts of lag time and inertia? It will take a long while before the solar wind can stir the outer atmosphere to its previous depth again.

The bigger point from NASA was that climate models have always assumed a uniform thickness for the Earth's atmosphere. This was proven false with their new satellite survey. I believe, if I remember correctly, that they found the atmosphere had contracted from 400 miles in depth to 280 miles (or so). That's a sizable difference, isn't it? It would be implausible to suggest that the atmosphere contracts that far yet has no impact on the weather systems we see and call "climate".

As I said before, a denser substance transmits heat more efficiently than a less condensed substance; therefore the atmosphere must be conducting heat away into space at a somewhat faster rate while the atmosphere is condensed. We are merely at the beginning of our exploration of the near-space portion of our planet, and at this point, have no idea what effect this may have on our weather.

However, the total sum of the mass of the atmosphere remains the same, so I believe we don't see this as a difference in pressure, just a difference in rate of heat transfer. As tropical storms are the quintessential heat transfer mechanism, I see it as likely that my theory would exhibit itself in the impedance of tropical storm development first... in the form of dry air subsidence in the northwest and west portions of the storm following D-max. This is what I've observed through all of the storms this year.

And unless someone can show me rainfall rates in the Hispanola mountains which would suggest that those mountains are significantly cooling and drying that inflow of air, then the dry air being ingested into Irene's core HAD to come from her own anti-cyclone, and not from low-level flow over said mountains. Radar images currently support the fact that it is not storming and/or raining over those mountains. Hence, those mountains are not the source of Irene's troubles today. Just like they didn't cause the NW quadrant outflows yesterday morning, or the morning before that.

I grant that my idea is far-fetched but all theories start out somewhere, don't they?
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596. Relix
Quoting presslord:


not sure we can blame this death on the storm


Oh yeah I agree, but for record purposes I think she will be added as a fatality caused by it. Sheer dumbness to be honest but well... People should know better by know. I still don't understand how this happens.
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I have NO DOUBT that this will be an East Coast\Atlantic Storm. It will NOT be a GOM storm.

That being said I remember these same arguments in 2008 about Ike.

Now this is no Ike and will not be heading my way but it illustrates that no matter what people say or forecast sometimes these things do what they want to do.

If I were anywhere along the Atlantic seaboard I would be taking this very seriously. I don't think anyone is out of the woods from Key West north to Maine.

Please be diligent and careful! Just because it is on the blog does not mean it is fact.
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Quoting Floodman:


See, this is why I hate the updates to the blog...I poofed you over an hour ago and here you are, back on my screen.


Don't understand that. When I put someone on ignore, it's permanent.
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593. Relix
Quoting Contrarian:


There was no hurricane in Puerto Rico. It even says that right in DMs post.

As for the current storm, its radar profile looks really weak right now. The extended interaction with land and lack of moisture means that the models all predicting a lack of strengthening(HWRF, ICON, IVCN, SHIPS) will probably be correct.



Actually the NHC declared it a Hurricane OVER Puerto Rico. There were hurricane winds reported inland as well. So yes, it was a hurricane. Also! Hurricane Winds were reported BEFORE landfall by the HHs
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Quoting Floodman:


See, this is why I hate the updates to the blog...I poofed you over an hour ago and here you are, back on my screen. So you've been doing this for 20 years? Why is it that your posts are petulant and sound like you're about 13? Why is it that you just joined here in the last couple of months? Are you kidding me? You know, I don't care...I will continue to poof you until you finally make the list and stay there...keep talking so I can tell it "took"


bahahhahaha...best post today!
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Quoting DookiePBC:


Thanks for the information. I always thought that hurricanes weren't impacted as much by this phenomenon? I could certainly be wrong though!


Just a little YouTube video I found that shows an example of diurnal-minimum (D-min) using Tropical Storm Erika in 2009 as an example...link is bookmarked to the exact time in the video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4w-R29XpVvY&featur e=player_detailpage#t=149s
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Quoting nash28:


Geez Cloudburst. Don't split your left ventricle. Take a Xanax would you please??

No one, and I mean NO ONE knows what tricks Irene may or may not have up her sleeve. To sit here and claim to know exactly where she is going to end up is foolish. No one is saying it is gonna continue W into FL. But you have to understand that these models have been all over the globe with her from the start. They are simply NOT handling the evolution of the shortwaves properly. When you have almost all of your reliable models going back and forth like a windsheild wiper, that gives uou a pretty solid clue that the upper level dynamics are STILL playing out.


Hey man, been a while!
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Its amazing just two clicks cleans all the dust and dirt off the blog and voila clean bog! Wish my home was that easy to clean.
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Quoting FLdewey:
24 more hours of turn arguments.


Ugh
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About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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