Category 2 Irene Approaches The Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:51 AM GMT on August 23, 2011

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As of 2am EDT, Hurricane Irene was located at 20.1N, 69.7W, 135 miles southeast of Grand Turk Island. It was moving west-northwest at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, making it a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Irene has a minimum central pressure of 978 mb. Hurricane warnings have been issued for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haiti board to Cabo Engano, the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands. Hurricane watches have been posted for the north coast of Haiti from Le Mole, St. Nicholas to the Dominican border and the northwestern Bahamas. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for all of Haiti and the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Santo Domingo.

5AM Update
As of 5am EDT, Hurricane Irene was located at 20.3N, 70.1W, 105 miles southeast of Grand Turk Island. It was moving west-northwest at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, keeping it a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Irene has a minimum central pressure of 978 mb.

Figure 1 shows that Irene is maturing into a vigorous storm, with apparent waves in the western edge of the cirrus outflow.


Figure 1 IR satellite view of Irene taken at 135AM EDT, August 22, 2011

Track Forecast

Irene is forecast to move to the north-northwest, passing over all of the Bahama islands by Thursday evening, at which points it starts curving to the north. Irene is forecast to make landfall in the US near Wilmington, NC Saturday evening. However, it is important to note that this is not a definitive forecast, the average forecast error for day 5 is 250 miles. The timing of Irene's recurvature depends on how quickly several small troughs of low pressure in the Northeastern US move to the east. After Saturday, Irene may pose a threat to the mid-Atlantic coastline and locations further north, but it is too early to make a skillful forecast for those regions.

NHC is forecasting for Irene to become a major hurricane (winds faster than 110 mph), within 24 hours, then reaching peak intensity at 130 mph (Category 4 storm) by 8pm EDT Thursday evening.

Forecast models and adaptive observations
The different forecast models are in rough agreement until Irene nears the Carolinas. The dynamical hurricane forecasting models, GFDL and HWRF, have Irene making landfall near Charleston, SC. NGFDL (a variant of the GFDL that uses NOGAPS for background conditions) has landfall near Morehead City, NC, and the GFS has Irene crossing the Outer Banks. The UKMET forecast track splits the difference, placing Irene near Myrtle Beach, SC at landfall.

To reduce the model spread, and improve the track forecast error, the NOAA Gulfstream IV and an Air Force WC-130J have been flying dropsonde missions north of Irene. A dropsonde is an meteorological instrument package dropped from a plane that can tell you the vertical profile of temperature, pressure, moisture, and winds. By flying these missions, the dropsondes can improve all of the numerical weather prediction models initial picture of the atmospheres, which improves the forecast. Also, NHC has asked NWS offices in the southeastern US that launch weather balloons to do so every 6 hours instead of the normal 12 hour frequency.


Figure 2 Official track forecast of Irene as of 2am.

5AM update
The 00Z ECMWF forecast is available and Figure 3 shows the maximum wind speed over the next week for the eastern coast of the US. Green indicates tropical storm force winds, while yellow and orange are hurricane-force winds. The important thing is not to fixate on the predicted landfall location, but to see that Irene's winds will affect areas far away from landfall. The GFS, not shown, agrees with ECMWF that Irene will have a large area of tropical-storm force winds associated with it.

Figure 3 Maximum wind-speed in mph from the 00Z August 23 ECMWF forecast for the next week.

Impacts

In the immediate future, Irene is expected to have a significant impact on the Bahamas and surrounding islands. Hurricane force winds are forecast to reach the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos sometime this afternoon or evening. These locations can also expect 5-10 inches of rain. Three to six inches of rain are forecast over northern Hispaniola, with isolated areas receiving up to 10 inches. This could lead to flash flooding and mudslides in mountaineous terrain. NHC is predicting a storm surge of 9-13 feet above normal tide level for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos.

Outside of the islands immediately impacted by Irene, it is my judgement that everybody living on the eastern coast of the US should monitor Irene and review their hurricane preparations over the next few days.

Dr. Masters will have a new blog entry this morning, and Angela Fritz will be covering the afternoon. I'll be back on third shift tonight.

Thanks for reading,

Dr. Rob Carver

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back to the discussion:

ok so the latest models are trending eastward which would be good news for South Carolina and much of North Carolina too. However, I take this light since it raises the flag for me and some here already said they trend eastward during the mourning and the westward in the evening. So I wait till evening to see what happens.

Here is a look over nearly the past 24 hours

11 AM Monday AUG 22

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11 PM Monday AUG 22
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8 AM Tuesday AUG 23
Photobucket
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Why isn't the NHC upgrading Irene's strength at all?

cause it isn't stronger.

pressure was up to 980 from 978.
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49mph gust just recorded in the TCI's...
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
1131. Jax82
WIJC? Where is Jim Cantore.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Why isn't the NHC upgrading Irene's strength at all?


Because it hasn't strengthened? I'm just guessing...
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1129. Patrap
I count 7 outflow boundaries racing NW and west.

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Quoting midgulfmom:
Didn't they expect it to wane over land but the everglades kept it steady as she goes? That impressed me...


Thats what happened with Fay. Really weak TS that stayed alive through the Everglades. Wait, weren't they comparing this storm to Fay a couple days ago? Not even close.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My prayers are with all the people in the Bahamas and North Carolina. Be Ready because unfortunately this is almost for sure going to hit you. Florida count your blessings we are not in the peak of this season yet.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 169
Why isn't the NHC upgrading Irene's strength at all?
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Irene could be a disaster for the entire Bahamas. God, I hope nobody dies !!!
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Quoting synthvol:
For anyone who is NOT prepared or ready to evacuate in the cone. Hurricane Ike ('08) was "only" a Cat II storm, but had a large windfield like Irene.



Good luck and God bless anyone in the path of this one, and we are praying it curves straight back out into the Atlantic (and misses Bermuda!!!)


We can't exactly compare storm surges along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic...shallow water along the gulf allows for larger storm surges.
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SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 70.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 71.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

Can someone please explain to me how this can be WNW?!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anyone have a graphic showing the recent and current storm positions vs the forecast tracks (i.e. showing the accuracy or errors so far in reference to position)?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Webcam located at Regent Grand Resort, Grace Bay Beach, Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands.

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. cchsweatherman

Hurricane Irene appears to be struggling some this morning as dry air from the south and west appears to be getting entrained and Hispanola disrupts the southerly inflow of the storm. Wouldn't be surprised to see some short term weakening of Irene given this.


correct and wouldnt this tend a more westerly movememnt since its not completely organized? just curious on your thoughts..
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1119. Patrap
IRENE Floater - Funktop Color Infrared Loop
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Quoting maeko:


and if she becomes temp weaker, how will that effect her steering?


If she weakened a lot, it would only drive her slightly further west..
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
Lian
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Track shifted east based on that HH run...
BahaHurricane may be spared a direct hit also.
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Anyone else see the dry air from the collasping thunderstorms in her northwest quadrant?




I don't see her RI until this is resolved until then its a slow strengthening or staying at her current strength only ballgame.


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000
FONT14 KNHC 231451
PWSAT4

HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1500 UTC TUE AUG 23 2011

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 7 12
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 1 9 16
TROPICAL STORM 1 2 3 3 10 28 35
HURRICANE 99 98 97 97 89 56 38
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 32 17 16 18 26 29 21
HUR CAT 2 54 41 32 29 29 16 10
HUR CAT 3 12 34 39 35 25 9 6
HUR CAT 4 1 6 9 13 8 1 1
HUR CAT 5 X 1 1 2 1 X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 90KT 100KT 105KT 110KT 110KT 100KT 65KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)

HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)

MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)

NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14)
NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14)

TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16)
TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20)
BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25)
DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23)
ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23)
WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34)
RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 30(42)
NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 30(43)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15)
NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27)
GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 20(39)
RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)
RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 24(54)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)

CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 11(23)
CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) 18(61)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15(28)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 41(47) 14(61)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 10(27)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11)

COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 7(29)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 41(49) 11(60)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 8(27)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 33(43) 6(49)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)

ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)

AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 2(31)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 13(28) 1(29)
MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8)
MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 12(25) X(25)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 7(30) 1(31)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 5(25) 1(26)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 4(36) X(36)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 5(36) X(36)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 27(36) 3(39) X(39)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 24(36) 2(38) X(38)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 13(25) 2(27) X(27)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)

APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) 31(69) 1(70) X(70)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) X(36) X(36)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) 1(17)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 5( 5) 25(30) 47(77) 7(84) X(84) X(84)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 38(43) 10(53) 1(54) X(54)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 9(30) X(30) X(30)

ANDROS 34 X 6( 6) 31(37) 27(64) 3(67) 1(68) X(68)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13)

GREAT EXUMA 34 3 37(40) 49(89) 5(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X 6( 6) 54(60) 13(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X 1( 1) 28(29) 13(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)

SAN SALVADOR 34 5 53(58) 36(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X 11(11) 57(68) 7(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X 1( 1) 34(35) 6(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42)

MAYAGUANA 34 85 14(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MAYAGUANA 50 29 62(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
MAYAGUANA 64 3 54(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)

GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GRAND TURK 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
GRAND TURK 64 40 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)

CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

CAMAGUEY 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 4 10(14) 4(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

LES CAYES 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

CAPE BEATA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

PUERTO PLATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PUERTO PLATA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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multi billion $ storm j.b. tweeted this morning it already cost me a couple bucks paying for the bandwith
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well, i'm no weather expert but, unless i'm crazy, from the 7:50 a.m. coordinate, to the 10:50 a.m. coordinate, Irene has taken a jog to the west??.....am i right?
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Well, instead of being in the east side of the eye, the eye now goes over my house. I feel powerless being in Germany.....I would like to ride it out, honestly, being fairly far inland.
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975.2 mb pressure.
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:


As I previously explained, Hurricanes follow only one thing and it is the law of Physics. Their mission is to cool down the waters of the atlantic by removing the stored heat energy and move it to higher latitudes therefore they will always tend to move north because of Earth roational dynamics. Ridges stop them from doing this so when you see a hurricane moving west more than likely it is because to their norht there is a strong ridge steering them that way, but as soon as they find a weakness norht they go. This is the case here. The weakness is projected to be east of Florida way east of Florida may i say and that explain the track designated by the NHC. For it to do what you claim the ridge would need ot be west enough inside FL and the weaknes to be in the GOMEX. The trof would have to first be really weak and second pull out really fast for this to be possible. It does not seem to be the case this time, but It happened before.
Thanks! Great explanation Canehunter.
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1107. maeko
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Hurricane Irene appears to be struggling some this morning as dry air from the south and west appears to be getting entrained and Hispanola disrupts the southerly inflow of the storm. Wouldn't be surprised to see some short term weakening of Irene given this.


and if she becomes temp weaker, how will that affect her steering?
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1105. ncstorm
Quoting myrtle1:
I live here in north myrtle beach sc.even if it tracks further east will i still have bad conditions here thanks


exactly..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14599
1103. NSgirl
Quoting Orcasystems:


I wouldn't be playing on the rocks at Peggy's cove when it goes past just yet :)


Thank you for the fast reply! I'll fill up the propane tanks & stock up on water & alpha-ghetti just incase. I went through Hurricane Juan when he hit Halifax in 2003, I'll never be caught unprepared again!
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1102. Skyepony (Mod)
dropsonde to the eyewall..

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
987mb (29.15 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 25.3°C (77.5°F) 125° (from the SE) 61 knots (70 mph)
1000mb -113m (-371 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 574m (1,883 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 22.1°C (71.8°F) 155° (from the SSE) 81 knots (93 mph)
850mb 1,310m (4,298 ft) 19.6°C (67.3°F) 19.2°C (66.6°F) 170° (from the S) 68 knots (78 mph)
700mb 2,966m (9,731 ft) 12.6°C (54.7°F) 11.4°C (52.5°F) 190° (from the S) 68 knots (78 mph)
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/ 145015.shtml?5-daynl#contents
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1100. HCW
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1099. WxLogic
Quoting stormpetrol:
While I agree that Irene has been basically moving WNW, the last 24 hours imo would same like a more N of west motion, rather a true WNW movement, jmo. Just wait putting on the bullet vest :)


I agree... she's moving WNW. The cloud expansion to the W might make it look like is moving W but in reality if you average the wobbles to the E/W you have path to the WNW.
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Hurricane Irene appears to be struggling some this morning as dry air from the south and west appears to be getting entrained and Hispanola disrupts the southerly inflow of the storm. Wouldn't be surprised to see some short term weakening of Irene given this.
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Hurricane IRENE Forecast/Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

000
WTNT24 KNHC 231449
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1500 UTC TUE AUG 23 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST.
NICHOLAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
THE HAITI BORDER
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 71.0W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 71.0W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 70.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.3N 72.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.3N 73.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.6N 75.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.3N 76.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.2N 77.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 33.0N 77.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 37.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 71.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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1095. jonelu
Out of the Cone of Doom finally! My thought are with our friends in the Bahamas.
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Quoting cmahan:


You've been getting your jollies by contradicting everyone in earshot for 20 years? Wow, you need a new hobby.

And keep in mind this is the same one who just a few days ago kept insisting Irene would go to the GOM...
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
yea, I posted that before Google Earth recon updated it.


Actually, they turned again, and did indeed go through the NW eyewall. Found flight level winds around 65-70 knots. Worth noting that they are at a higher level than they were yesterday when they found 105knot winds, almost double the height, in fact.
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Quoting Skyepony:
975.2mb


I'm concerned Irene will intensify very quickly once she leaves the vicinity of Hispaniola and reestablishes inflow from the south. Especially given that pressure appears to keep dropping.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



senseless drivel


Stormtop, is that you? Have you refined the FLUSH model any more?
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NHC shifted their track LITTLE to east. Landfall now in Morehead City, going north as an major, and toward NYC as a hurricane.
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Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 14:49Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 06

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 15Z on the 23rd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 20.5N 70.7W
Location: 72 miles (116 km) to the SSE (157°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
987mb (29.15 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 25.3°C (77.5°F) 125° (from the SE) 61 knots (70 mph)
1000mb -113m (-371 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 574m (1,883 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 22.1°C (71.8°F) 155° (from the SSE) 81 knots (93 mph)
850mb 1,310m (4,298 ft) 19.6°C (67.3°F) 19.2°C (66.6°F) 170° (from the S) 68 knots (78 mph)
700mb 2,966m (9,731 ft) 12.6°C (54.7°F) 11.4°C (52.5°F) 190° (from the S) 68 knots (78 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 14:34Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 135° (SE) from the eye center (it is possible this value is in radians and that our site decoded it wrong).
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1088. myrtle1
I live here in north myrtle beach sc.even if it tracks further east will i still have bad conditions here thanks
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 231450
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...IRENE APPROACHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 71.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST.
NICHOLAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
THE HAITI BORDER
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...BE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER OF IRENE. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF HAITI AND THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
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Quoting smartinwx:
Anyone seen Reedzone lately?

I miss his 1000 mile wide cones and celebrations for "nailing" the forecast.

wont hear to much from him as this isnt hitting east central florida
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Quoting SPLbeater:


LOL, i have a weather station. only thing that works is the pressure, but....wont help a darnt hing with irene, any smart person would know that:)

If the only thing that works is the pressure, then you don't have a weather station; you have a barometer... ;-)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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