Hurricane Irene continues to become better organized, takes aim at Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson hurricane wind scale, and continues to be a U.S. landfall threat for anywhere from southern Florida to North Carolina. In the 5pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Irene had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Irene is moving west-northwest at 13 mph along the northern Hispaniola coastline. Estimates from radar suggest Puerto Rico has seen anywhere from 1 to 5 inches of rain from Irene so far, with the heaviest rain probably being enhanced by topography. Satellite imagery shows a new burst of intense thunderstorm activity began near the center of the hurricane this afternoon, and despite land interaction, Irene continues to become larger and better organized, with tropical storm-force (39 mph) winds extending 160 miles away from the center on the northeast side of the hurricane. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found maximum sustained winds just above 80 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 988 millibars. The strongest winds continue to be found on the north side of the storm. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for this evening, and a NOAA Gulfstream is on its way to Irene as I type.
Figure 1. True-color image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:20am EDT Monday August 22, 2011, shortly after Irene moved off the coast of Puerto Rico. At the time, Irene was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Track forecast for Irene
The models agree that the center of Irene will stay north of Hispaniola, which will allow the storm to continue to organize. The question that remains is how the trough of low pressure, which is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, will affect Hurricane Irene. The timing and strength of this trough, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, will determine just how quick Irene will turn away from the U.S. coast, if at all. This afternoon, the GFDL has finally started to inch its forecast track to the east, with a landfall in southern Florida. Both the HWRF and the UKMET models are suggesting a landfall in South Carolina, and the ECMWF and the GFS are forecasting a brush with the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a track north of Hispaniola over the next 24 hours, and through the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday. While the center of the Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty has Irene making landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border, it's important to note that the error in 4 and 5 day track forecasts remains high—around 200 miles in either direction. The official track has nudged a bit east since this morning, which reduces the threat to southern Florida, but increases the threat to the Carolinas.
Intensity forecast for Irene
The environment around Hurricane Irene remains moist, and wind shear is expected to remain relatively low (5 to 15 knots) along its forecast path over the next 5 days. Sea surface temperatures are certainly warm enough (29-30°C) to support intensification to a major hurricane (category 3+). Irene is still disorganized on its south side due to land interaction and dry air, but recent satellite imagery suggests increasing outflow at high levels to the south of the center, which is necessary for the hurricane to intensify. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are forecasting Irene to develop into a very large and intense hurricane. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 2 hurricane tomorrow evening as it moves away from Hispaniola. Beyond that, Irene will most likely intensify into a category 3 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 110 mph. Like Jeff said this morning, however, Irene could just as easily remain a category 2, or even reach category 4 wind speeds. In any case, Irene will be a powerful hurricane and a serious threat to the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States.
Angela
Reader Comments
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LOL
Yep. I'm thinking my Atlantis Labor Day weekend plans might not be so amenity filled this visit.
wow right there with anderw
and plenty of rain
Scheduled for 8:00PM EDT
&*&^%!!!
Wouldn't that be considered marine trash and debris? We can get a major fine out here if we drop a piece of wood over the side of the rig.
just kidding about the HH's with the dropsondes. I know it is a necessary tool for measuring the storms.
Dude, relax. Obviously, you know the difference. I was referring to some Northeners.
What does it initialise as?
oh ok
Just trying to get as rise out of press... Apparently he didn't see it... LOL!
It might start making that NW to N turn very shortly.
actuaaly he is right, Cantore rarely ends up in the worst conditions
You really do need to take this seriously. I believe a short term motion to the NW with some intensification right away is on the cards before a swing back to the WNW. This could bring Irene almost right on top of you guys. Even if that does not happen you are facing an intensifying system that could be Cat 2 near to the T & C islands.
Stay safe.
If they are still out and about getting information, I think that it will not be in the models until 06Z, for the 5am EDT advisory, as they will wait until all information is received.
Lol...Isn't it obvious?
When writing about a model run (i.e. "96h - irene at 985mb), it would help to reference which model and what initialization.
Second, when showing model runs, it would help to reference which model and what initialization.
This is basic stuff.
that is still too close to FL though, I have TS conditions possible in Clermont on Friday and I am 70 miles inland!
Link
He was in Ft. Myers for Charley, 30 miles from the eyewall..
I've never seen it that way. He was in Gulfport with Katrina, as well as Georges. That are our two most recent strong hurricanes, so that's all I remember.
Hello please can you post a link to the HWRF 18Z RUN.
Classic TV Buffoonery,save for the Dancing BEar.
That isn't true...Cantore represents that a bad storm is coming. Haven't you seen their commercials about everyone running when Cantore shows up at their beach?
Everyone laughs at the HWRF and its extremes, but 920mb isn't unrealistic this time.
They sink after a set period of time.
Who you calling a Northerner??!! ;)
Well that's just mean... however it does annoy me when people talk about how he saves lives and they call him a meteorologist... he most definitely is not, and he writes a blog. The NHC and the NWS they save lives. It is their jobs to do so. Most of us reading this blog have some love of weather and probably even study it in our spare time, but that doesn't qualify us to be termed meteorologist. The ones who deserve to be termed meteorologists have an actual college degree in meteorology. Off my soap box.
I am interested to see how the models shift on the next run. I think maybe slightly west or nearly the same position. It's good to know that a TON of sounding data is going into these runs, and therefore they are more likely to be more acurately, since they know the environmental conditions from New York to Slidell.
What do you think about the shifts west?
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