Hurricane Irene pounds Puerto Rico, heads for Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 22, 2011

Share this Blog
30
+

Hurricane Irene strengthened into the season's first Atlantic hurricane at 5am EDT this morning as the eye moved over San Juan, Puerto Rico, and crossed into the ocean just north of the island. Overnight, Irene held its own as the eye passed over the most mountainous portion of Puerto Rico, the El Yunque region. Winds in the higher mountains likely reached Category 2 strength, 96 - 110 mph, according to measurements from the San Juan Terminal Doppler Radar, and the hurricane pounded the island with damaging winds and flooding rains, resulting in widespread tree damage and power failures that hit 800,000 people. The San Juan Airport recorded top winds of 41 mph, gusting to 55 mph, and 2.87" of rain, as of 9am AST. Tropical storm conditions affected the Virgin Islands, with St. Thomas recording sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 67 mph, and 4.03" of rain as of 6am AST today. At 7am EDT, the ship Horizon Trader measured sustained northeast winds of 69 mph and wave heights of 11.5 feet at 19°N, in the northern eyewall of Irene. Latest observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Irene is slowly intensifying, with a central pressure of 989 mb observed at 9:42am EDT. The eyewall is not fully formed yet, with a gap on the south side. This gap will need to close off before the hurricane can undergo rapid intensification.


Figure 1. A direct hit: the center of Hurricane Irene passed directly over the Terminal Doppler Radar at San Juan, Puerto Rico between 4am and 5am AST this morning.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models show good agreement that Irene will pass along the north coast of Hispaniola today, but just a slight wobble in Irene's track to take it farther offshore--or push it onshore, over the mountains--will have major impacts on the ultimate path and strength of the hurricane. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene more to the northwest by Wednesday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most popular solution among the models is to take Irene to the northwest through the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday, then into the Southeast U.S. coast in South Carolina or North Carolina on Saturday. Irene would then travel up the mid-Atlantic coast, arriving near Long Island, New York on Monday morning as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. One of the models proposing this solution is our best model, the ECMWF. However, we have two other of our very good models suggesting a landfall near Miami on Thursday night is likely (the GFDL and UKMET models.) NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart gave some good reasons in this morning's discussion to favor a track close to the east coast of Florida, but just offshore. Last years' worst performing major the model, the NOGAPS, predicts that Irene will pass out to sea, missing the Southeast U.S. coast. Keep in mind that the average error of a 4-day forecast from NHC is 200 miles, and just a small deviation in the path of a storm moving roughly parallel to the coast will make a huge difference in where it ultimately makes landfall. The NOAA jet will be flying its first dropsonde mission into Irene today, which should result in a more reliable set of model runs first thing Tuesday morning.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 29 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Satellite loops show that Irene is steadily growing in size, which will protect the storm against major disruption by its passage along the north shore of Hispaniola today. The storm is lacking much development on its southwest side, where dry air is interfering with development. This dry air may help keep southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from receiving more than 3 - 6 inches of rain. There is at least a 30% chance that passage of the eye over Hispaniola will reduce Irene to a tropical storm tonight and into Tuesday. Due to Hispaniola blocking inflow of moist air from the south, Irene will likely compensate by building an even larger region of heavy thunderstorms to the north, offshore. Thus, when Irene's center finally moves well away from the coast on Tuesday, it will be a bigger storm, with the potential to spread hurricane conditions over a wider area later in the week when it intensifies. One limiting factor for intensification may be in the upper-level outflow pattern. The hurricane is lifting a huge amount of air from the surface to the upper atmosphere, and all that mass has to be efficiently transported away in order for the hurricane to intensify. Right now, upper level outflow is only well-established to the north and east, and the forecast outflow pattern for the coming five days is only moderately favorable. Overall, I think the official NHC forecast of a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday is the right one, though Irene could easily be a Category 2 or Category 4 storm.

Irene's impact on the Dominican Republic
Heavy rains from Irene have already reached the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, where Punta Cana has seen wind gusts up to 29 mph this morning. The northeast coast of the country near Samana will receive the worst of Irene's wrath, with sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph and gusts above hurricane force likely to cause widespread tree damage and power outages today. Passage along the coast of the island may weaken Irene to a tropical storm by Tuesday morning, and wind damage in Puerto Plata may be less severe than at Samana. The capital of Santo Domingo will see lesser winds, perhaps 30 - 50 mph, with gusts to 60 mph. The main danger to the Dominican Republic will be Irene's torrential rains, which are likely to reach 20 inches in some mountainous regions, causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Irene's impact on Haiti
No nation in the Caribbean is more vulnerable to hurricanes than Haiti, whose northern reaches are expected to receive torrential rains of 5 - 10 inches from Irene. During the 2008 hurricane season, four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on Haiti, leaving over 1,000 people dead or missing. The path and intensity of Hurricane Irene are very similar to that of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which dumped 13 inches of rains on the nation's northern mountains. The rugged hillsides, stripped bare of 98% of their forest cover thanks to deforestation, let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country, killing over 3000 people, mostly in the town of Gonaives, the nation's 4th largest city. Jeanne ranks as the 12th deadliest hurricane of all time on the list of the 30 most deadly Atlantic hurricanes, and Irene's rains are capable of causing a similar disaster. During 2004 and again this year, ocean temperatures off the coast of Haiti were 1 - 1.5°C above average, one of the top five values seen in the past 100 years. Since more water vapor evaporates into the air from record warm waters, the potential for devastating floods from hurricanes is much higher in these situations. However, satellite images of Jeanne show the storm had much more moisture on its south side when it hit Hispaniola than Irene currently has, so I am hopeful that Irene's rains will not be as intense as Jeanne's were.


Figure 2. Track of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which followed a path very similar to what is expected from Hurricane Irene along the north coast of Hispaniola. Irene is not going to do a big loop like Jeanne did, though.

As bad as the hurricanes of 2004 and 2008 were, the January 2010 earthquake was far worse. Up to 316,000 may have been killed, and the capital city of Port-Au-Prince was devastated, leaving over 1.5 million people living under tarps during the 2010 hurricane season. Fortunately, Hurricane Tomas missed making a direct hit on Haiti, and Haiti escaped major loss of life during the 2010 hurricane season. This year, approximately 595,000 Haitians still live underneath tarps outdoors thanks to the earthquake, and these unfortunate people will be at risk of being swept away by flash flooding from Irene's torrential rains. However, Port-Au-Prince lies to the south of where Irene's main rains will fall, and I doubt the earthquake refugee camps will suffer from a major flooding disaster.


Figure 3. Hospital admissions (black bars) and death rate in percent (red line) for Haiti's cholera epidemic of 2010 - 2011. The cholera epidemic surged out of control after Hurricane Tomas dumped heavy rains on Haiti on November 4, 2010, with hospitalizations increasing by a factor of three for over a month. Over 3% of all people who contracted cholera died after Tomas' rains. However, sanitation and medical care improved in the following months, and the death rate fell by a factor of five to 0.7% by the summer of 2011. Another surge in cholera cases occurred in June 2011, doubling after heavy rainy season rains occurred. Cholera deaths doubled during the surge, but the death rate remained constant at 0.7%. Image credit: Pan American Health Organization.

Another danger is that Irene's rains will worsen the cholera epidemic that surfaced after the earthquake. Cholera is a water-borne disease, and spreads readily after heavy rains. As of August 12, 2011, the 2010 - 2011 cholera epidemic had infected 419,000 Haitians, killing 5,968. After Hurricane Tomas passed on November 5, 2010, cholera cases exploded, with hospital admissions more than tripling for over a month. Similarly, heavy rains in June 2011 during the country's usual rainy season caused doubled cholera cases and deaths for several weeks. We can expect that Irene's rains will cause at least a doubling of cholera cases for a month or more. This will lead to several hundred additional cholera deaths, given the disease's 0.7% mortality rate this summer in Haiti (during June and July 2011, 95,212 cases were reported, with 626 deaths.) An increase in cholera deaths due to Irene's rains is also a concern in the Dominican Republic, where cholera has sickened 14,000 people and killed 92 as of the end of July.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

See my 2010 post, Haiti's tragic hurricane history.

An exceptionally active of hurricane season
Hurricane season is only one-third over, and we've already had almost a full years' activity already. Tropical Storm Irene is the 9th named storm this year, and an average season has just 10 - 11 named storms. Irene's formation date of August 20 ties 2011 with 1936 as the 2nd earliest date for formation of the season's 9th storm. Only 2005 was more active this early. However, the first eight storms of the year have done far less damage than is typical. All eight storms stayed below hurricane strength, making 2011 the first hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851 to have more than six consecutive tropical storms that did not reach hurricane strength. As I discussed in Friday's post, a major reason for this is the lack of vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic so far this year. We've had a large amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and the usual amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara, both helping to keep the atmosphere stable and stop this year's storms from intensifying into hurricanes. Hurricane activity typically ramps up big-time by August 20, with more than 80% of all the hurricanes and 65% of all the tropical storms occurring after that date. At our current pace, 2011 will become the second busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 24 - 27 named storms. There are only 21 names in the list of names for a hurricane season, so we may have to break out the Greek alphabet again in late October this year, as occurred in 2005. Ironically, this was the last time the current set of names was used in the Atlantic, so 16 of this year's 21 names are repeats of 2005. I'm not too happy about seeing another hurricane season challenge the Hurricane Season of 2005 in any way, and let's hope we don't retire another five names this year, like occurred in 2005! With vertical instability much lower this year than in 2005, and that year having already seen one storm (Dennis) retired by this point in the season, I doubt that will happen, though.


Figure 4. The annual cycle of average hurricane frequency in the Atlantic. Historically, about 35% of all the tropical storms and 15% of all the hurricanes will have occurred by August 20.

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? Well, the best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). This model out-performed the official NHC forecast in 2010 for 1-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day forecasts, and in 2009 for 4-day and 5-day forecasts. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 5, over the past two years, the GFS and GFDL model have been the next best models, with the UKMET model not far behind. Last year, the NOGAPS model did very poorly, forcing NHC to come up with some new consensus models this year, the TCOA and TVCA, that do not include the NOGAPS model. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)


Figure 5. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms 2010. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models. Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2010 verification report.

Next post
There will be 2 - 3 posts per day in my blog this week during Irene, with Angela Fritz and Rob Carver doing some of the afternoon and evening posts.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico (lobdellJ)
Tropical Storm Irene hits the north coast of Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR (ronmil)
The first bands or Irene approaching Maunabo, Puerto Rico (SE corner)...
Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR
Irene (reefchild)
Irene @OPkB OceanParkBeach Puerto Rico 7pm
Irene

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 287 - 237

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40Blog Index

Quoting oceanblues32:
Ok so it looks like we here in ft lauderdale and south florida are out of danger!!! But if it tracks over Hispanolia would that mean differently for south florida just curious... i do hope someone takes the time to answer!!


If it were to interact more with the land and that interaction causes it to weaken, the motion could be west more, and change the path some.

I would not stop watching it until it is past us, although the NHC 2-3 day track is pretty good.

But if it is suppose to go up the coast between the Bahamas & Florida, a wobble of 100 miles could put the storm directly on top of Florida.

And the other thing that bears repeating -- this storm is not just a dot 40 miles wide -- at the moment the tropical force winds go out up to 150 miles. Do you know how many miles it between Naples & Miami? Not 150. Its also not 150 miles to the bahamas either.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherguy03:
Mike Seidel from TWC headed for West Palm Beach tomorrow morning to start coverage.


Wish it was Cantore so that would be a guarantee of a miss lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
Just watched our local news here in WWAY TV3 online weather update and they are saying not out to sea..and so it begins..

Link



Oh Dear....who is that forecaster? Havent seen him much
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mike Seidel from TWC headed for West Palm Beach tomorrow morning to start coverage.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Over the next 24 - 36 hours will help determine potential impacts on FL. What people should watch out for in FL currently is the western side of her circulation and see how that can develop further. Dry air and outflow restriction are hampering RI chances right now. Steady strengthening is more likely in the short term.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cajunkid:
yall are all gonna freak out when it bounces north and south off the mountains


Actually what will make the blog explode is when Irene "makes the turn". That first time that the NHC discussion says "and Irene should begin a turn to the NW later today" you will see a few hundred posts saying that she's missed the turn or is turning much later and (insert local area here) should make preparations.
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
Quoting reedzone:


Looks like the eye may be jogging a bit west on that frame.


Not per recon.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
I am hoping the trends continue more and more east. Yo can not rule out a re-curve at this time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stillwaiting:
,you've been about 24hrs ahead of what the nhc has been putting out,you,levi,usafwx,drak,misswx and atmaggie have all nailed her approx movements ahead of the information the nhc has been,caling for a path tomthe east of the sate about 24hrs ago,great job and thanks,i for one do pay attention and love learning about wx


Yes alot of great info on this site and great people. Thanks! Talented young people as well. I am getting old!..LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting oceanblues32:
Ok so it looks like we here in ft lauderdale and south florida are out of danger!!! But if it tracks over Hispanolia would that mean differently for south florida just curious... i do hope someone takes the time to answer!!


Here is a general answer, so you don't panic.

Keep checking back with the NHC.

Long range forcasting can have large errors.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Could someone who knows how to read the steering currents & has the ability do one of those great graphics showing the different features that are affecting the movement of Irene?

TIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting oceanblues32:
Ok so it looks like we here in ft lauderdale and south florida are out of danger!!! But if it tracks over Hispanolia would that mean differently for south florida just curious... i do hope someone takes the time to answer!!


No we are not out of danger at all. There are still models taking the storm right over us.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting oceanblues32:
Ok so it looks like we here in ft lauderdale and south florida are out of danger!!! But if it tracks over Hispanolia would that mean differently for south florida just curious... i do hope someone takes the time to answer!!



Ft. Lauderdale still in the cone.

Remain aware of the situation.

Land interaction could impact the ultimate path, but nobody knows until it happens.

As long as you are in the cone you are not in the clear. Official NHC track has a 200 mile error margin on day four, 250 on day five.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
Quoting cloudburst2011:


I AGREE JEDKINS A SOON TO BE MET SIAD FLA WAS OUT THE WOODS...WHAT AND IRRESPONSIBLE STATEMENT TO MAKE...


Why are you accusing me of things I didn't say? I never said Florida was out of the woods, I said the chance of a landfall in Florida is looking less and less likely as each new model grouping comes in which is good news.

Hopefully, the admin will end your account. Why not try having a real life instead of harassing people on blogs? You'll probably enjoy life a lot more that way.

Also, I have years of school left, so I never claimed to be a soon to be MET either, I have so much to learn, in a way, I'm just getting started.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:


Looks like the eye may be jogging a bit west on that frame.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Wishing you never said that!!


middle of cone 4 to 5 days is the best place to be for sure! Means you're safe! Irene sure seems to be headed back on more of a westerly course
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:
Guys, I don't want to sound controversial, but I have yet to find any wind reports any where near supporting what Irene hit landfall as. Granted there are always issues when it comes to observations as far power loss and instrument malfunction during tropical cyclones, but still top winds 41 gusting to 55 mph at San Juan isn't very impressive for an "eye wall".

When Frances and Jeanne tracked north of Tampa in 2004, we had a lot stronger winds than that from just general banding and both storms were rated as tropical storms when they wen through, not hurricanes.

I got sustained winds topping at 55 with gusts to hurricane force for hours and over 10 inches of rain, a lot worse than Irene dealt from what we know so far.

Also, a ship over water in the northern eye wall failed to find hurricane force winds, sustained at 69 mph is still tropical storm strength, and that's over water.

That being said, I question about tropical cyclones, and their behavior. Some hurricanes sometimes are shockingly powerful in terms of the actual wind force they produce on land at the surface, while it seems some hurricanes seem to keep their strong winds elevated just above the surface, that actual surface winds are weaker than represented.

Like I said, I'm just talking, not declaring anything here with authority. Its something I would be very interested in discussing with actual meteorologists, that is for sure.
You've got a couple of issues, there.

First, the wind field characteristics:


Irene's strongest wind stayed away from the available observation platforms.

Additionally, only the western end of Irene would have induced a direct on shore flow on northern PR. All of the observation platforms would have measured land roughness-reduced wind speeds outside of the short period of direct on-shore winds, and only then if they are truly directly at the coasts.

Then, the type of land features come into play. In our storm surge modeling areas of marsh grasses leave about 90% of the former, open water wind speeds. Pine forests, less than 70% of the former wind speeds. These are based on peer-reviewed works and real-world data.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting ElConando:


What do you think are the chances of re curvature at this point without any direct impacts on the U.S. at this point?




not Drakeon but i dont think the high is gonna allow that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
yall are all gonna freak out when it bounces north and south off the mountains
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NOLALawyer:


Come on, man...do you really think we want another storm down here in NOLA? I know I don't. I have no love for evacuations. Plus, I have fun stuff to do this weekend, like replacing the driveshaft in my Dragin' Wagon.


Ooooh what kinda beast is she?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting medic2luv:
When does the new ECWMF come out?

Patrap, can you post the link of the radar loops you've been posting? They r great!!


Around 3PM EDT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherguy03:
Hurricane Irene Morning Update Aug. 22nd., 2011


11AM NHC track finally shifts alittle farther East lessening the threat for Florida and increasing the threat for my danger zone area from Savannah, GA. to Wilmington, NC.. Florida still in the cone though.
,you've been about 24hrs ahead of what the nhc has been putting out,you,levi,usafwx,drak,misswx and atmaggie have all nailed her approx movements ahead of the information the nhc has been,caling for a path tomthe east of the sate about 24hrs ago,great job and thanks,i for one do pay attention and love learning about wx
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CothranRoss:

I think the whole Cape Fear area is on their toes right now.



I am in Wilmington and the timing could not be worse. In the process os switching homeowners insurance
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
jpete14,
I'd cancel that date if I were you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just watched our local news here in WWAY TV3 online weather update and they are saying not out to sea..and so it begins..

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15739
,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok so it looks like we here in ft lauderdale and south florida are out of danger!!! But if it tracks over Hispanolia would that mean differently for south florida just curious... i do hope someone takes the time to answer!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


Exactly, there are many elderly people who are born in raised in Tampa Bay who have never experienced a direct hit form a hurricane, that always shocks tourists that come to visit.

Sadly, one day our luck will run out, and it will probably be extremely ugly.


Thats Sad ;-( <-- crying smiley
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cloudburst2011:


I AGREE JEDKINS A SOON TO BE MET SIAD FLA WAS OUT THE WOODS...WHAT AND IRRESPONSIBLE STATEMENT TO MAKE...
caps lock must be broken. no shouting please.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
256. DVG
Quoting caneswatch:
Just remember folks, Irene's cone is still in FL. We're not out of the woods yet.


After measuring the current track, the center of the current track places the storm @150 mi E of Jax as it travels north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
will fla get a ts watch if that cone holds


Florida's east coast will experience at least TS force winds if it followed that guidance
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Quoting ncstorm:


The ECWMF is predicting landfall around Myrtle Beach, SC..its intensity stays the same after traveling up the coast to Virginia Beach..I dont see much surfing ha
happening..

Quoting VaBeachSurfer:
Should I be worried here in Virginia Beach? We never see much from these storms that ride up the coast.


Yes, Carolinas to VA Beach should monitor this situation closely and be prepared. We have had record warmth in the Gulf Stream Waters this year. This will aid in the intesification of tropical systems
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BobinTampa:
for those in SC, sometimes it's not all bad to be in the bullseye this far out. Tampa finds itself in the center of the Cone of Uncertainty very often and we get hit about once every 100 years.



Exactly, there are many elderly people who are born in raised in Tampa Bay who have never experienced a direct hit form a hurricane, that always shocks tourists that come to visit.

Sadly, one day our luck will run out, and it will probably be extremely ugly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
When does the new ECWMF come out?

Patrap, can you post the link of the radar loops you've been posting? They r great!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NASA101:


... think we are ALL amateurs here, unless someone here has a degree in meteorology..!?
And also only a handful of folks on here worth listening to..
Don't twist my words around. I did say almost didn't I. I know who to listen to in here and who not to don't need any help with that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Umm, yeah, there are a few. Some with graduate degrees.


A few mets pop in and out too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
248. 7544
will fla get a ts watch if that cone holds
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6862
Quoting BobinTampa:
for those in SC, sometimes it's not all bad to be in the bullseye this far out. Tampa finds itself in the center of the Cone of Uncertainty very often and we get hit about once every 100 years.



That's actually a great point. A day or so ago, where was the 5 day point? Wasn't it on the Gulf Coast north of Tampa or something. (I honestly don't recall). Remember they keep saying that the average error is 200 miles for 5 days. So being on the bullseye 5 days out, may not be terrible...just keep an eye on it for now...but no more than 30 seconds of running around outside screaming with your hands flailing is necessary yet.
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
Quoting MIKEYZ:
I haven't posted in a while and am a little rusty. Not comforting seeing this storm growing in size and intensity as I live in Wrightsville Beach
North Carolina. Last big one was Floyd was a Cat 4 that weakened before it hit here. When I see Jim Cantore cross the bridge ill know its time to leave.

I think the whole Cape Fear area is on their toes right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stillwaiting:
,so she'd have to weaken???


Or a pretty damn strong A/B high.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane Irene Morning Update Aug. 22nd., 2011


11AM NHC track finally shifts alittle farther East lessening the threat for Florida and increasing the threat for my danger zone area from Savannah, GA. to Wilmington, NC.. Florida still in the cone though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
im heading to salvo,nc for vacation 27th to spet 3----will i be okay?????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PaulinJax:
When will the watches/ warnings for Florida start to go up ?



I believe tropical storm watches will go up at tonights 11 update.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Its hard to forecast overall damage from this storm given the track - assuming it hits somewhere along SC coast and rides up the east coast all the way up to England..
Are we looking at the one of the biggest disasters (in monetary terms) over a huge part of the CONUS..!?

Can't imagine the number of folks without power from IRENE.. upwards of 20 million given the track!?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The east coast could do without this...<>a href="http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/2011082 206/slp5.png" target="_blank" onclick="if(!checkUrl(this.href)) return false;" rel="nofollow" Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well looks like I MAY be in the clear in NE FLA now according to that big shift east. It will probably continue shifting east JMO. Glad I waited on rushing to fill gas cans for my generators at least just yet. Guess time will really tell though when new models come out or tonight's update.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 287 - 237

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
54 °F
Overcast