Hurricane Irene pounds Puerto Rico, heads for Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 22, 2011

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Hurricane Irene strengthened into the season's first Atlantic hurricane at 5am EDT this morning as the eye moved over San Juan, Puerto Rico, and crossed into the ocean just north of the island. Overnight, Irene held its own as the eye passed over the most mountainous portion of Puerto Rico, the El Yunque region. Winds in the higher mountains likely reached Category 2 strength, 96 - 110 mph, according to measurements from the San Juan Terminal Doppler Radar, and the hurricane pounded the island with damaging winds and flooding rains, resulting in widespread tree damage and power failures that hit 800,000 people. The San Juan Airport recorded top winds of 41 mph, gusting to 55 mph, and 2.87" of rain, as of 9am AST. Tropical storm conditions affected the Virgin Islands, with St. Thomas recording sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 67 mph, and 4.03" of rain as of 6am AST today. At 7am EDT, the ship Horizon Trader measured sustained northeast winds of 69 mph and wave heights of 11.5 feet at 19°N, in the northern eyewall of Irene. Latest observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Irene is slowly intensifying, with a central pressure of 989 mb observed at 9:42am EDT. The eyewall is not fully formed yet, with a gap on the south side. This gap will need to close off before the hurricane can undergo rapid intensification.


Figure 1. A direct hit: the center of Hurricane Irene passed directly over the Terminal Doppler Radar at San Juan, Puerto Rico between 4am and 5am AST this morning.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models show good agreement that Irene will pass along the north coast of Hispaniola today, but just a slight wobble in Irene's track to take it farther offshore--or push it onshore, over the mountains--will have major impacts on the ultimate path and strength of the hurricane. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene more to the northwest by Wednesday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most popular solution among the models is to take Irene to the northwest through the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday, then into the Southeast U.S. coast in South Carolina or North Carolina on Saturday. Irene would then travel up the mid-Atlantic coast, arriving near Long Island, New York on Monday morning as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. One of the models proposing this solution is our best model, the ECMWF. However, we have two other of our very good models suggesting a landfall near Miami on Thursday night is likely (the GFDL and UKMET models.) NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart gave some good reasons in this morning's discussion to favor a track close to the east coast of Florida, but just offshore. Last years' worst performing major the model, the NOGAPS, predicts that Irene will pass out to sea, missing the Southeast U.S. coast. Keep in mind that the average error of a 4-day forecast from NHC is 200 miles, and just a small deviation in the path of a storm moving roughly parallel to the coast will make a huge difference in where it ultimately makes landfall. The NOAA jet will be flying its first dropsonde mission into Irene today, which should result in a more reliable set of model runs first thing Tuesday morning.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 29 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Satellite loops show that Irene is steadily growing in size, which will protect the storm against major disruption by its passage along the north shore of Hispaniola today. The storm is lacking much development on its southwest side, where dry air is interfering with development. This dry air may help keep southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from receiving more than 3 - 6 inches of rain. There is at least a 30% chance that passage of the eye over Hispaniola will reduce Irene to a tropical storm tonight and into Tuesday. Due to Hispaniola blocking inflow of moist air from the south, Irene will likely compensate by building an even larger region of heavy thunderstorms to the north, offshore. Thus, when Irene's center finally moves well away from the coast on Tuesday, it will be a bigger storm, with the potential to spread hurricane conditions over a wider area later in the week when it intensifies. One limiting factor for intensification may be in the upper-level outflow pattern. The hurricane is lifting a huge amount of air from the surface to the upper atmosphere, and all that mass has to be efficiently transported away in order for the hurricane to intensify. Right now, upper level outflow is only well-established to the north and east, and the forecast outflow pattern for the coming five days is only moderately favorable. Overall, I think the official NHC forecast of a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday is the right one, though Irene could easily be a Category 2 or Category 4 storm.

Irene's impact on the Dominican Republic
Heavy rains from Irene have already reached the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, where Punta Cana has seen wind gusts up to 29 mph this morning. The northeast coast of the country near Samana will receive the worst of Irene's wrath, with sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph and gusts above hurricane force likely to cause widespread tree damage and power outages today. Passage along the coast of the island may weaken Irene to a tropical storm by Tuesday morning, and wind damage in Puerto Plata may be less severe than at Samana. The capital of Santo Domingo will see lesser winds, perhaps 30 - 50 mph, with gusts to 60 mph. The main danger to the Dominican Republic will be Irene's torrential rains, which are likely to reach 20 inches in some mountainous regions, causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Irene's impact on Haiti
No nation in the Caribbean is more vulnerable to hurricanes than Haiti, whose northern reaches are expected to receive torrential rains of 5 - 10 inches from Irene. During the 2008 hurricane season, four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on Haiti, leaving over 1,000 people dead or missing. The path and intensity of Hurricane Irene are very similar to that of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which dumped 13 inches of rains on the nation's northern mountains. The rugged hillsides, stripped bare of 98% of their forest cover thanks to deforestation, let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country, killing over 3000 people, mostly in the town of Gonaives, the nation's 4th largest city. Jeanne ranks as the 12th deadliest hurricane of all time on the list of the 30 most deadly Atlantic hurricanes, and Irene's rains are capable of causing a similar disaster. During 2004 and again this year, ocean temperatures off the coast of Haiti were 1 - 1.5°C above average, one of the top five values seen in the past 100 years. Since more water vapor evaporates into the air from record warm waters, the potential for devastating floods from hurricanes is much higher in these situations. However, satellite images of Jeanne show the storm had much more moisture on its south side when it hit Hispaniola than Irene currently has, so I am hopeful that Irene's rains will not be as intense as Jeanne's were.


Figure 2. Track of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which followed a path very similar to what is expected from Hurricane Irene along the north coast of Hispaniola. Irene is not going to do a big loop like Jeanne did, though.

As bad as the hurricanes of 2004 and 2008 were, the January 2010 earthquake was far worse. Up to 316,000 may have been killed, and the capital city of Port-Au-Prince was devastated, leaving over 1.5 million people living under tarps during the 2010 hurricane season. Fortunately, Hurricane Tomas missed making a direct hit on Haiti, and Haiti escaped major loss of life during the 2010 hurricane season. This year, approximately 595,000 Haitians still live underneath tarps outdoors thanks to the earthquake, and these unfortunate people will be at risk of being swept away by flash flooding from Irene's torrential rains. However, Port-Au-Prince lies to the south of where Irene's main rains will fall, and I doubt the earthquake refugee camps will suffer from a major flooding disaster.


Figure 3. Hospital admissions (black bars) and death rate in percent (red line) for Haiti's cholera epidemic of 2010 - 2011. The cholera epidemic surged out of control after Hurricane Tomas dumped heavy rains on Haiti on November 4, 2010, with hospitalizations increasing by a factor of three for over a month. Over 3% of all people who contracted cholera died after Tomas' rains. However, sanitation and medical care improved in the following months, and the death rate fell by a factor of five to 0.7% by the summer of 2011. Another surge in cholera cases occurred in June 2011, doubling after heavy rainy season rains occurred. Cholera deaths doubled during the surge, but the death rate remained constant at 0.7%. Image credit: Pan American Health Organization.

Another danger is that Irene's rains will worsen the cholera epidemic that surfaced after the earthquake. Cholera is a water-borne disease, and spreads readily after heavy rains. As of August 12, 2011, the 2010 - 2011 cholera epidemic had infected 419,000 Haitians, killing 5,968. After Hurricane Tomas passed on November 5, 2010, cholera cases exploded, with hospital admissions more than tripling for over a month. Similarly, heavy rains in June 2011 during the country's usual rainy season caused doubled cholera cases and deaths for several weeks. We can expect that Irene's rains will cause at least a doubling of cholera cases for a month or more. This will lead to several hundred additional cholera deaths, given the disease's 0.7% mortality rate this summer in Haiti (during June and July 2011, 95,212 cases were reported, with 626 deaths.) An increase in cholera deaths due to Irene's rains is also a concern in the Dominican Republic, where cholera has sickened 14,000 people and killed 92 as of the end of July.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

See my 2010 post, Haiti's tragic hurricane history.

An exceptionally active of hurricane season
Hurricane season is only one-third over, and we've already had almost a full years' activity already. Tropical Storm Irene is the 9th named storm this year, and an average season has just 10 - 11 named storms. Irene's formation date of August 20 ties 2011 with 1936 as the 2nd earliest date for formation of the season's 9th storm. Only 2005 was more active this early. However, the first eight storms of the year have done far less damage than is typical. All eight storms stayed below hurricane strength, making 2011 the first hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851 to have more than six consecutive tropical storms that did not reach hurricane strength. As I discussed in Friday's post, a major reason for this is the lack of vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic so far this year. We've had a large amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and the usual amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara, both helping to keep the atmosphere stable and stop this year's storms from intensifying into hurricanes. Hurricane activity typically ramps up big-time by August 20, with more than 80% of all the hurricanes and 65% of all the tropical storms occurring after that date. At our current pace, 2011 will become the second busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 24 - 27 named storms. There are only 21 names in the list of names for a hurricane season, so we may have to break out the Greek alphabet again in late October this year, as occurred in 2005. Ironically, this was the last time the current set of names was used in the Atlantic, so 16 of this year's 21 names are repeats of 2005. I'm not too happy about seeing another hurricane season challenge the Hurricane Season of 2005 in any way, and let's hope we don't retire another five names this year, like occurred in 2005! With vertical instability much lower this year than in 2005, and that year having already seen one storm (Dennis) retired by this point in the season, I doubt that will happen, though.


Figure 4. The annual cycle of average hurricane frequency in the Atlantic. Historically, about 35% of all the tropical storms and 15% of all the hurricanes will have occurred by August 20.

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? Well, the best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). This model out-performed the official NHC forecast in 2010 for 1-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day forecasts, and in 2009 for 4-day and 5-day forecasts. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 5, over the past two years, the GFS and GFDL model have been the next best models, with the UKMET model not far behind. Last year, the NOGAPS model did very poorly, forcing NHC to come up with some new consensus models this year, the TCOA and TVCA, that do not include the NOGAPS model. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)


Figure 5. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms 2010. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models. Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2010 verification report.

Next post
There will be 2 - 3 posts per day in my blog this week during Irene, with Angela Fritz and Rob Carver doing some of the afternoon and evening posts.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico (lobdellJ)
Tropical Storm Irene hits the north coast of Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR (ronmil)
The first bands or Irene approaching Maunabo, Puerto Rico (SE corner)...
Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR
Irene (reefchild)
Irene @OPkB OceanParkBeach Puerto Rico 7pm
Irene

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Quoting P451:
That's a big girl.




she has dropped 10 mb in 6 hrs? yikes....
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Whilst Florida to South Carolina may seem like a big difference, in reality only a very slight shift east in the track brings it from Florida to South Carolina. And I'm not really sure how you're expecting them to get the track bang on every time anyway, all they have to go on are current conditions and the models, all of which suggested a FL hit yesterday. Unless they can invent a time machine.


Lol I know..but it's just I believe with todays technology..they should be able to produce more certain forecasts. I wouldn't be surprised to see a shift back west. That turn to the NW and N looks to sharp.
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585. DFWjc
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true. And we've still got nearly four-and-a-half months before the yearbook is closed. That's lots of time for more hurricanes, nor'easters, blizzards...


And here in North Texas we went from snow and ice to tornadoes to pure dryness in a matter of 12 weeks...truly a weird weather season....
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


I was chumming up Presslord lol. I know where Edisto is. I lived in Charleston and worked at Kiawah Island once-upon-a-time....:^)


ah its ok...it was a good landmark for those who didn't know it existed lol...hubs been doing bunches of electrical out on Kiawah and seabrook lately
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Pulsing convective pattern suggests dry air is having an impact.
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Quoting ncstorm:


a newbie? I have never heard of him..


well at least cantori isn't coming.
Member Since: April 16, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 112
New to the blog. All I can add is the forecast will change and this one looks like it will be stronger than forecast at this point. Katrina proved how fast they can explode with favorable conditions.
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Quoting NCSCguy:
Hey Press and Tiger, if we needed to evacuate inland what route would you guys take? Just wondering.


I26 is your best bet...but ya need to leave early if you're gonna go
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Cantore travelling to Holden Beach, NC on Thursday...
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Quoting Drakoen:
Great visible loop


Irene has been slowing down quite a bit, could be temporary.
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Sometimes tropical cyclones make hypercycloidic loops , especially during the formative stages..1961,s Carla was notorious for these loops and jogs..
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Question for all the experts out there... Has anyone see the cone ever shift back south once it has begun a northerly migration for these East coast storms?
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Sucking in dry air right now......I don't think this storm is going to do anything fast.
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ok...out for a bit...gotta make sure my disabled neighbor is ready for this...bbl
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Recon. going in for another center fix now.
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Grand Strand Area
North Myrtle Beach and northward: Use SC 9 to proceed to I-95 and beyond.
Myrtle Beach:
-10th Avenue North and northward to Briarcliff Acres use SC 22 (Conway Bypass) to US 501. Motorists using SC 31 (Carolina Bays Parkway) or the Grissom Parkway will be directed north to SC 22.
-South of 10th Avenue North southward to the Myrtle Beach Airport use US 501 toward Marion and beyond.
-Myrtle Beach Airport southward through Surfside Beach use SC 544 to US 501.
Under certain conditions, US 501 will be converted to four lanes westbound from SC 22 to US 576. Instructions will be given to motorists through signs and highway advisory radio.
Garden City Beach south to Winyah Bay, Georgetown: Take US 17 south through Georgetown, then take US 521 to SC 261 to US 378 to Columbia.
Under certain conditions, an alternate route from Georgetown will be Black River Road to US 701 to SC 51 to SC 41 to US 378 at Kingsburg.
Charleston Area:
Edisto Island, Adams Run: Evacuees will take SC 174 to US 17.They will then take US 17 south to SC 64. This will take them to Walterboro, and then to Aiken and I-20.
Yonges Island, Meggett, Hollywood, Ravenel: Use SC 165 to US 17, then US 17 south to SC 64.
Johns Island, Kiawah Island and Seabrook: Evacuees will use SC 700 to Road S-20 (Bohicket Road) to US 17. Evacuees will take US 17 south to SC 64 where they will go to Walterboro, then to Aiken and I-20.
James Island and Folly Beach: Use SC 171 to US 17. Evacuees should then travel south on US 17 to I-526 to the reversed lanes of I-26.
City of Charleston:
The west side of the city (West Ashley) will use SC 61 to US 78, US 321, SC 389 to I-20. Downtown will use normal lanes of I-26.
North Charleston: Evacuees will take US 52 (Rivers Avenue) to US 78 to US 178 to Orangeburg then to I-20 or continue on US 52 to US 176 or continue north on US 52. The right lane of US 52 at Goose Creek will continue on to Moncks Corner. In Moncks Corner, it will be directed onto SC 6, where SC 6 will take evacuees toward Columbia. The left lane of US 52 at Goose Creek will go onto US 176 to Columbia. Evacuees using SC 642 will travel west toward Summerville and take road S-22 (Old Orangeburg Road) to US 78 west.
Hilton Head Island:
Hilton Head Island and Beaufort Areas: Hilton Head Island evacuees will use both the William Hilton Parkway (US 278 Business) and the Cross Island Parkway toll facility (US 278). As these two roads merge, a third lane will be formed by reversing flow on the inside eastbound lane of US 278. This lane will carry the traffic from the toll facility.
Lane assignments will be as follows:
1. The right lane in US 278 westbound will exit at SC 170, proceed to SC 462, then be directed to I-95 northbound at I-95 exit 28.
2. The left lane on US 278 westbound will be directed to I-95 northbound at
I-95 exit 8.
3. The reversed lane on US 278 westbound will continue on US 278 to
Hampton and eventually to North Augusta. Should a third lane not be necessary, then both lanes on US 278 will be routed to I-95 with the right lane to I-95 north, and the left lane continuing on US 278.
Beaufort:
Two Lane Evacuation: Evacuees will use the two present northbound lanes on US 21 to US 17. Upon reaching US 17, the right lane will be directed to US 17 north to SC 303 to Walterboro. The left lane will be directed to US 17 South, then to US 17 Alt/US 21 to Yemassee and then ultimately to North Augusta.
Three/Four Lane Evacuation: Under certain conditions, a third northbound lane will be formed by reversing flow on the inside southbound lane of US 21 at SC 280. This lane will carry traffic from SC 280. This reversed lane will be directed to US 17 southbound and eventually I-95 northbound at Exit 33 (Point South). The remaining two lanes will be used as described above for the two lane evacuation. Should all four lanes be used for evacuation, lane assignments will follow the three lane plan with both reversed lanes merging into one lane on US 21 prior to going southbound on US 17.
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569. Gorty
Quoting quakeman55:
Irene's eye looks to be tightening up and getting smaller, indicating possible intensification going on. Also seems to be continuing on its westward heading (though it appears slower)...might come just onshore on the DR if it keeps this up for much longer.



It's going wnw.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


Edisto Beach is about 55 miles or so South of Charleston, SC


I was chumming up Presslord lol. I know where Edisto is. I lived in Charleston and worked at Kiawah Island once-upon-a-time....:^)
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Hello Hello :) Been a very long time since I visited here. Now that SC is in the red, I am reading and watching with you once again!! I so hate the damage it could do to the coast. Any chance it will bust apart and dissolve?? LOL
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Quoting ncstorm:
NWS in Wilmington, NC has not updated their long term discussion since 3pm Sunday..thats comforting..


they said in 24-28 hours they'd know more about the storm... so i guess theyre waiting until just that?
Member Since: April 16, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 112
Quoting canecast:


He said a jog west not a change in direction. Looks like a wobble.


If it keeps going west it'll make landfall in Yucatan. Just sayin.
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Quoting WxLogic:
MDSD Sounding:



Not tragically dry, but certainly enough to cause a few problems.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Eric Fisher from TWC heading to Wilmington.


a newbie? I have never heard of him..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15106
we're going to have a Portlight conference call tomorrow night @ 8pm edt to begin discussing response...if you'd like to participate please WU mail me and I'll send ya the call in # and participant code
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Irene's eye looks to be tightening up and getting smaller, indicating possible intensification going on. Also seems to be continuing on its westward heading (though it appears slower)...might come just onshore on the DR if it keeps this up for much longer.

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i wouldn't take I26...depending on where you are going...i would go out hwy 61 toward summerville and take it from there depending on how far you want to go
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556. JRRP
to me is moving W no WSW
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Quoting starbuck02:
What are the chances of Irene's eye skirting the north coast of Hispaniola?


I think it will, especially with these wobbles.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30157
Quoting odinslightning:



actually tornado season has been insane this spring/summer....i have been working wind/hail/tornado claims from massachusetts of all places......pounded from boston to springfield and back again north and south. i saw total losses in sturbridge and other places....it's been a crazy year for conus so far.


there have been tornadoes and straight line (microburst) damage all over the place....Chicago has been pounded hard too several times over the past few months.

That's true. And we've still got nearly four-and-a-half months before the yearbook is closed. That's lots of time for more hurricanes, nor'easters, blizzards...
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MDSD Sounding:

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552. 7544
lets see what the gfdl says whens the plane for irene tia
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Great visible loop
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30157
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Quoting ncstorm:
NWS in Wilmington, NC has not updated their long term discussion since 3pm Sunday..thats comforting..


they're speachless!!! lol

Well really, what can you say...
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Quoting Chicklit:
Irene and her anticyclone are starting to dance again.


Indeed they are. Good find.
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Hey Press and Tiger, if we needed to evacuate inland what route would you guys take? Just wondering.
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546. MahFL
Well in my neck of the woods, we'd proberbly lose power with sustained 30 mph winds and a few gusts of 50 mph, Orange Park FL.
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545. GoWVU
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Is Edisto in the Carolinas?
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Is Edisto in the Carolinas?


Yes it is, we don't need a hit here..
Member Since: September 12, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 380
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Is Edisto in the Carolinas?


Edisto Beach is about 55 miles or so South of Charleston, SC
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2011 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
98L.INVEST
09L.IRENE (HURRICANE)
08L.HARVEY

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
96W.INVEST (T.C.F.A.)
95W.INVEST

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53526
Quoting CaneAddict:


It's just ridiculious...One day it's Florida next it's south carolina...the NHC really need's to fix there errors.


Whilst Florida to South Carolina may seem like a big difference, in reality only a very slight shift east in the track brings it from Florida to South Carolina. And I'm not really sure how you're expecting them to get the track bang on every time anyway, all they have to go on are current conditions and the models, all of which suggested a FL hit yesterday. Unless they can invent a time machine.
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yup...the odds are it'll miss us...
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Quite a bit of dry air (marked by circles):

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Quoting tiggeriffic:


live 5 news is saying Edisto Beach...that is worse for us in the Charleston area...would rather have the eye than it hit to the south like that


Is Edisto in the Carolinas?
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting nash28:


We're dead in the landfall crosshairs now. It'll change. Always does. Would not be surprised if this ends up being a OBX hit instead. Nevertheless, I am prepared.


regardless, bet schools are closed friday cuz of TS force winds
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NWS in Wilmington, NC has not updated their long term discussion since 3pm Sunday..thats comforting..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15106

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.