Hurricane Irene pounds Puerto Rico, heads for Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 22, 2011

Share this Blog
30
+

Hurricane Irene strengthened into the season's first Atlantic hurricane at 5am EDT this morning as the eye moved over San Juan, Puerto Rico, and crossed into the ocean just north of the island. Overnight, Irene held its own as the eye passed over the most mountainous portion of Puerto Rico, the El Yunque region. Winds in the higher mountains likely reached Category 2 strength, 96 - 110 mph, according to measurements from the San Juan Terminal Doppler Radar, and the hurricane pounded the island with damaging winds and flooding rains, resulting in widespread tree damage and power failures that hit 800,000 people. The San Juan Airport recorded top winds of 41 mph, gusting to 55 mph, and 2.87" of rain, as of 9am AST. Tropical storm conditions affected the Virgin Islands, with St. Thomas recording sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 67 mph, and 4.03" of rain as of 6am AST today. At 7am EDT, the ship Horizon Trader measured sustained northeast winds of 69 mph and wave heights of 11.5 feet at 19°N, in the northern eyewall of Irene. Latest observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Irene is slowly intensifying, with a central pressure of 989 mb observed at 9:42am EDT. The eyewall is not fully formed yet, with a gap on the south side. This gap will need to close off before the hurricane can undergo rapid intensification.


Figure 1. A direct hit: the center of Hurricane Irene passed directly over the Terminal Doppler Radar at San Juan, Puerto Rico between 4am and 5am AST this morning.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models show good agreement that Irene will pass along the north coast of Hispaniola today, but just a slight wobble in Irene's track to take it farther offshore--or push it onshore, over the mountains--will have major impacts on the ultimate path and strength of the hurricane. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene more to the northwest by Wednesday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most popular solution among the models is to take Irene to the northwest through the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday, then into the Southeast U.S. coast in South Carolina or North Carolina on Saturday. Irene would then travel up the mid-Atlantic coast, arriving near Long Island, New York on Monday morning as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. One of the models proposing this solution is our best model, the ECMWF. However, we have two other of our very good models suggesting a landfall near Miami on Thursday night is likely (the GFDL and UKMET models.) NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart gave some good reasons in this morning's discussion to favor a track close to the east coast of Florida, but just offshore. Last years' worst performing major the model, the NOGAPS, predicts that Irene will pass out to sea, missing the Southeast U.S. coast. Keep in mind that the average error of a 4-day forecast from NHC is 200 miles, and just a small deviation in the path of a storm moving roughly parallel to the coast will make a huge difference in where it ultimately makes landfall. The NOAA jet will be flying its first dropsonde mission into Irene today, which should result in a more reliable set of model runs first thing Tuesday morning.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 29 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Satellite loops show that Irene is steadily growing in size, which will protect the storm against major disruption by its passage along the north shore of Hispaniola today. The storm is lacking much development on its southwest side, where dry air is interfering with development. This dry air may help keep southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from receiving more than 3 - 6 inches of rain. There is at least a 30% chance that passage of the eye over Hispaniola will reduce Irene to a tropical storm tonight and into Tuesday. Due to Hispaniola blocking inflow of moist air from the south, Irene will likely compensate by building an even larger region of heavy thunderstorms to the north, offshore. Thus, when Irene's center finally moves well away from the coast on Tuesday, it will be a bigger storm, with the potential to spread hurricane conditions over a wider area later in the week when it intensifies. One limiting factor for intensification may be in the upper-level outflow pattern. The hurricane is lifting a huge amount of air from the surface to the upper atmosphere, and all that mass has to be efficiently transported away in order for the hurricane to intensify. Right now, upper level outflow is only well-established to the north and east, and the forecast outflow pattern for the coming five days is only moderately favorable. Overall, I think the official NHC forecast of a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday is the right one, though Irene could easily be a Category 2 or Category 4 storm.

Irene's impact on the Dominican Republic
Heavy rains from Irene have already reached the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, where Punta Cana has seen wind gusts up to 29 mph this morning. The northeast coast of the country near Samana will receive the worst of Irene's wrath, with sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph and gusts above hurricane force likely to cause widespread tree damage and power outages today. Passage along the coast of the island may weaken Irene to a tropical storm by Tuesday morning, and wind damage in Puerto Plata may be less severe than at Samana. The capital of Santo Domingo will see lesser winds, perhaps 30 - 50 mph, with gusts to 60 mph. The main danger to the Dominican Republic will be Irene's torrential rains, which are likely to reach 20 inches in some mountainous regions, causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Irene's impact on Haiti
No nation in the Caribbean is more vulnerable to hurricanes than Haiti, whose northern reaches are expected to receive torrential rains of 5 - 10 inches from Irene. During the 2008 hurricane season, four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on Haiti, leaving over 1,000 people dead or missing. The path and intensity of Hurricane Irene are very similar to that of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which dumped 13 inches of rains on the nation's northern mountains. The rugged hillsides, stripped bare of 98% of their forest cover thanks to deforestation, let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country, killing over 3000 people, mostly in the town of Gonaives, the nation's 4th largest city. Jeanne ranks as the 12th deadliest hurricane of all time on the list of the 30 most deadly Atlantic hurricanes, and Irene's rains are capable of causing a similar disaster. During 2004 and again this year, ocean temperatures off the coast of Haiti were 1 - 1.5°C above average, one of the top five values seen in the past 100 years. Since more water vapor evaporates into the air from record warm waters, the potential for devastating floods from hurricanes is much higher in these situations. However, satellite images of Jeanne show the storm had much more moisture on its south side when it hit Hispaniola than Irene currently has, so I am hopeful that Irene's rains will not be as intense as Jeanne's were.


Figure 2. Track of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which followed a path very similar to what is expected from Hurricane Irene along the north coast of Hispaniola. Irene is not going to do a big loop like Jeanne did, though.

As bad as the hurricanes of 2004 and 2008 were, the January 2010 earthquake was far worse. Up to 316,000 may have been killed, and the capital city of Port-Au-Prince was devastated, leaving over 1.5 million people living under tarps during the 2010 hurricane season. Fortunately, Hurricane Tomas missed making a direct hit on Haiti, and Haiti escaped major loss of life during the 2010 hurricane season. This year, approximately 595,000 Haitians still live underneath tarps outdoors thanks to the earthquake, and these unfortunate people will be at risk of being swept away by flash flooding from Irene's torrential rains. However, Port-Au-Prince lies to the south of where Irene's main rains will fall, and I doubt the earthquake refugee camps will suffer from a major flooding disaster.


Figure 3. Hospital admissions (black bars) and death rate in percent (red line) for Haiti's cholera epidemic of 2010 - 2011. The cholera epidemic surged out of control after Hurricane Tomas dumped heavy rains on Haiti on November 4, 2010, with hospitalizations increasing by a factor of three for over a month. Over 3% of all people who contracted cholera died after Tomas' rains. However, sanitation and medical care improved in the following months, and the death rate fell by a factor of five to 0.7% by the summer of 2011. Another surge in cholera cases occurred in June 2011, doubling after heavy rainy season rains occurred. Cholera deaths doubled during the surge, but the death rate remained constant at 0.7%. Image credit: Pan American Health Organization.

Another danger is that Irene's rains will worsen the cholera epidemic that surfaced after the earthquake. Cholera is a water-borne disease, and spreads readily after heavy rains. As of August 12, 2011, the 2010 - 2011 cholera epidemic had infected 419,000 Haitians, killing 5,968. After Hurricane Tomas passed on November 5, 2010, cholera cases exploded, with hospital admissions more than tripling for over a month. Similarly, heavy rains in June 2011 during the country's usual rainy season caused doubled cholera cases and deaths for several weeks. We can expect that Irene's rains will cause at least a doubling of cholera cases for a month or more. This will lead to several hundred additional cholera deaths, given the disease's 0.7% mortality rate this summer in Haiti (during June and July 2011, 95,212 cases were reported, with 626 deaths.) An increase in cholera deaths due to Irene's rains is also a concern in the Dominican Republic, where cholera has sickened 14,000 people and killed 92 as of the end of July.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

See my 2010 post, Haiti's tragic hurricane history.

An exceptionally active of hurricane season
Hurricane season is only one-third over, and we've already had almost a full years' activity already. Tropical Storm Irene is the 9th named storm this year, and an average season has just 10 - 11 named storms. Irene's formation date of August 20 ties 2011 with 1936 as the 2nd earliest date for formation of the season's 9th storm. Only 2005 was more active this early. However, the first eight storms of the year have done far less damage than is typical. All eight storms stayed below hurricane strength, making 2011 the first hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851 to have more than six consecutive tropical storms that did not reach hurricane strength. As I discussed in Friday's post, a major reason for this is the lack of vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic so far this year. We've had a large amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and the usual amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara, both helping to keep the atmosphere stable and stop this year's storms from intensifying into hurricanes. Hurricane activity typically ramps up big-time by August 20, with more than 80% of all the hurricanes and 65% of all the tropical storms occurring after that date. At our current pace, 2011 will become the second busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 24 - 27 named storms. There are only 21 names in the list of names for a hurricane season, so we may have to break out the Greek alphabet again in late October this year, as occurred in 2005. Ironically, this was the last time the current set of names was used in the Atlantic, so 16 of this year's 21 names are repeats of 2005. I'm not too happy about seeing another hurricane season challenge the Hurricane Season of 2005 in any way, and let's hope we don't retire another five names this year, like occurred in 2005! With vertical instability much lower this year than in 2005, and that year having already seen one storm (Dennis) retired by this point in the season, I doubt that will happen, though.


Figure 4. The annual cycle of average hurricane frequency in the Atlantic. Historically, about 35% of all the tropical storms and 15% of all the hurricanes will have occurred by August 20.

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? Well, the best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). This model out-performed the official NHC forecast in 2010 for 1-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day forecasts, and in 2009 for 4-day and 5-day forecasts. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 5, over the past two years, the GFS and GFDL model have been the next best models, with the UKMET model not far behind. Last year, the NOGAPS model did very poorly, forcing NHC to come up with some new consensus models this year, the TCOA and TVCA, that do not include the NOGAPS model. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)


Figure 5. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms 2010. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models. Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2010 verification report.

Next post
There will be 2 - 3 posts per day in my blog this week during Irene, with Angela Fritz and Rob Carver doing some of the afternoon and evening posts.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico (lobdellJ)
Tropical Storm Irene hits the north coast of Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR (ronmil)
The first bands or Irene approaching Maunabo, Puerto Rico (SE corner)...
Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR
Irene (reefchild)
Irene @OPkB OceanParkBeach Puerto Rico 7pm
Irene

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 637 - 587

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40Blog Index

Quoting interstatelover7165:
North Carolina Department of Transportation evacuation routes
"A look at [latest computer model] track forecasts suggest a higher chance of Irene tracking along or just off the coast of eastern Florida and making landfall along the Carolina coast," stated AccuWeather.com Hurricane and Tropical Weather Expert Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski.
Such a scenario would give Irene time to strengthen into a major hurricane and become an even greater danger to lives and property at landfall.

If Hurricane Irene heads for North Carolina, the state could reverse traffic on I-40. The reversal will be considered only when the southeastern coast of North Carolina is threatened by a major hurricane and mandatory evacuations are issued. A decision to reverse I-40 would be made jointly by the secretaries of Transportation and Crime Control & Public Safety, in consultation with the Governor of North Carolina.
In addition to the strength of the storm, other factors to be considered in the decision include projected land fall and the population remaining at the time the mandatory evacuation is ordered.
If this plan is activated, I-40 east will carry 2 lanes of westbound traffic. Most entrances and exits to the regular eastbound and reversal lanes will be open.
The reversal would begin in Wilmington, just before the Gordon Road exit (Exit 420). The left lane of traffic on N.C. 132 west will be directed onto the reversal lanes and traffic in the right lane will continue on I-40 west.
Commercial vehicles will be restricted to the regular westbound lanes of I-40. The reversal would end at the N.C. 96 (Exit 334) interchange east of Benson. No traffic will be permitted on the eastbound lanes of I-40 between I-95 and N.C. 96.
Please Note: All eastbound traffic on I-40 must exit at 1-95 (Exit 328). Motorists can still reach the Wilmington area via alternate routes such as U.S. 421 and U.S. 117.
Should the reversal be activated, citizens will be advised through local radio and television stations.


Great info!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
635. 7544
irene is moving west athis hour ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CCkid00:

the problem with New Orleans wasn't Katrina....it was the levees. Katrina wasn't very bad, it was the aftermath. So, if no levees, shouldn't be a Katrina


What does that have to do with my comment?
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
Quoting sdswwwe:
So with Irene closing her south eyewall, what does this mean for intensity?
It can intensify faster.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:
Quite a bit of dry air (marked by circles):



The weaker it is, the less northerly track.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
Quoting AllStar17:


Conditions are going to be quite favorable for intensification in the Bahamas....and dry air won't be a problem then, either.

the problem with New Orleans wasn't Katrina....it was the levees. Katrina wasn't very bad, it was the aftermath. So, if no levees, shouldn't be a Katrina
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


that was filmed right at Wrightsville Beach..I'm glad he already made his appearance..LOL
I'm telling y'all, him coming to Wrightsville Beach was an omen for future!!!
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7459
I live on the northern most of the outer banks, nc chain (life on a sandbar, cute huh). Anyway, I bail with my disabled wife for a high cat 2 or any cat 3 (most locals stay through a cat 3). A few brag about staying through a cat 4 or cat 5. As an aside these people piss me off because all they do is put first responders at greater risk. Anyway again, what are my favorite (note me kissing up) forecasters saying about the impact on the OBX. I know it is a little early, but I thought I give a quick shout out. I will try to get pictures of the weather as I have in the past. Biggest internet thrill for me so far, was having my pictures front and center on WU as I took pictures of the Atlantic chewing up homes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
627. DFWjc
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Between Vega Baja and Dorado is Vega Alta, AKA me.


Hopefully you two are both safe and secure...god bless ya!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting USAFwxguy:
Sooner it ramps up, the better chance it has for recurve away from CONUS. Maybe graze the OBX.

Or, if it were to weaken from interaction with Hispaniola, it may well still get to South Florida:




It won't go OTS, ridge is too strong and built in far enough west for it to not go OTS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanejunky:


You mean the tenth BILLION DOLLAR weather disaster, dontcha?

Yes, I do. I was keeping the number low so as not to startle those who think things are no different than they ever were... ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gugi182:
Writing from PUERTO RICO. Let me tell you wow!!!! what a night. It's unbelievable that IRENE formed as a hurricane inland just as it was exiting the northern part of the island. it entered the east city of HUMACAO as a strong tropical storm with sustain winds of 70MPH. and exited between VEGA BAJA to DORADO as a Category 1 75MPH hurricane. There are 800,000 people in the island most in the east, southeast, and northeast with isolated cases in the southwest and north west of the island with no power. There is a lot of light poles and trees on main road, and expressway around the island. Well it is still raining here in PUERTO RICO. The sun will be up tomorrow and so the process of cleaning up and surveying the damage begins.

Between Vega Baja and Dorado is Vega Alta, AKA me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ecupirate:
Cantore travelling to Holden Beach, NC on Thursday...


Been there before, as well as Oak Island. Beautiful beaches and a beautiful place. Only problem is its on an island separated by a narrow canal. That water can easily get backed up into inlets and canal flooding can cause some flooding on the mainland. Not to mention the island itself will get hammered. maybe underwater.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DFWjc:


don't you mean this - people running from Jim Cantore?

Link


that was filmed right at Wrightsville Beach..I'm glad he already made his appearance..LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wave off of Africa..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19518
Don't blast me, but is she stationary?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am positive Irene has the whereabouts to threaten at catastrophic levels. Not to say she is anything like Katrina, but remember when she was about to make landfall over FL? Wasn't dry air supposed to be an issue as well? Well it wasn't for long. I think Irene is having dry air entrainment issues currently, but this should become short lived as this next pulse of deep convection could have lasting impacts in kicking this dry air away.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I remember Cantore showed up in Miami last year when Nicole was threatening to hit them..you could tell he was angry that Florida didnt get much..he had no reason to tie himself to a pole and blow in the wind..I'm sure wherever he goes (SC)that he will have some wind blowing up his windbreaker..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:


They need to fix their errors like you need to Google their vs. there. Forecasting these storms is not an exact... ahh ya know what... whatever.

Good luck with that.



I'm not sure I have any idea what you just said?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
26 min.

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49
A. 23/00Z
B. NOAA9 0609A IRENE
C. 22/1730Z
F. 41,000 45,000 FT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TybeeGirl:
Question for all the experts out there... Has anyone see the cone ever shift back south once it has begun a northerly migration for these East coast storms?


if you're on Tybee you need to keep an eye on it 'til it's north of you
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
Writing from PUERTO RICO. Let me tell you wow!!!! what a night. It's unbelievable that IRENE formed as a hurricane inland just as it was exiting the northern part of the island. it entered the east city of HUMACAO as a strong tropical storm with sustain winds of 70MPH. and exited between VEGA BAJA to DORADO as a Category 1 75MPH hurricane. There are 800,000 people in the island most in the east, southeast, and northeast with isolated cases in the southwest and north west of the island with no power. There is a lot of light poles and trees on main road, and expressway around the island. Well it is still raining here in PUERTO RICO. The sun will be up tomorrow and so the process of cleaning up and surveying the damage begins.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still raining in parts of PR.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
609. DFWjc
Quoting ncstorm:


don't you mean this - people running from Jim Cantore?

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Too much dry air for that kind of rapid intensification, yes. But plenty of time to attain that major hurricane status by the time it's the same latitude as the Carolinas.
I'll check in tomorrow, I have to get supplies. later
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
North Carolina Department of Transportation evacuation routes
"A look at [latest computer model] track forecasts suggest a higher chance of Irene tracking along or just off the coast of eastern Florida and making landfall along the Carolina coast," stated AccuWeather.com Hurricane and Tropical Weather Expert Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski.
Such a scenario would give Irene time to strengthen into a major hurricane and become an even greater danger to lives and property at landfall.

If Hurricane Irene heads for North Carolina, the state could reverse traffic on I-40. The reversal will be considered only when the southeastern coast of North Carolina is threatened by a major hurricane and mandatory evacuations are issued. A decision to reverse I-40 would be made jointly by the secretaries of Transportation and Crime Control & Public Safety, in consultation with the Governor of North Carolina.
In addition to the strength of the storm, other factors to be considered in the decision include projected land fall and the population remaining at the time the mandatory evacuation is ordered.
If this plan is activated, I-40 east will carry 2 lanes of westbound traffic. Most entrances and exits to the regular eastbound and reversal lanes will be open.
The reversal would begin in Wilmington, just before the Gordon Road exit (Exit 420). The left lane of traffic on N.C. 132 west will be directed onto the reversal lanes and traffic in the right lane will continue on I-40 west.
Commercial vehicles will be restricted to the regular westbound lanes of I-40. The reversal would end at the N.C. 96 (Exit 334) interchange east of Benson. No traffic will be permitted on the eastbound lanes of I-40 between I-95 and N.C. 96.
Please Note: All eastbound traffic on I-40 must exit at 1-95 (Exit 328). Motorists can still reach the Wilmington area via alternate routes such as U.S. 421 and U.S. 117.
Should the reversal be activated, citizens will be advised through local radio and television stations.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
Quoting ncstorm:
NWS in Wilmington, NC has not updated their long term discussion since 3pm Sunday..thats comforting..



I remember some years ago hearing about a lawsuit filed against the weather service for scaring away the tourists unnecessarily. i have noticed they are very very conservative since
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tiggeriffic:


ah its ok...it was a good landmark for those who didn't know it existed lol...hubs been doing bunches of electrical out on Kiawah and seabrook lately


an Edisto landfall would be bad news
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
A long ways away but looks like I might have moved from Massachusetts at the right time. GFS has been pretty consistent showing this very close to southern New England. We should worry about the Southeast US first, but Irene may not be finished after them.

12z GFS 162Hrs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CothranRoss:


well at least cantori isn't coming.


He is keeping everyone guessing according to his twitter..he might have a mass evacuation on account of him alone..wherever he shows up, I feel for them..he is a magnet for storms..LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nola70119:


This isn't going to be Katrina....there are certain upper level conditions that allow a storm to blow up like that, and there is too much dry air as well.


Conditions are going to be quite favorable for intensification in the Bahamas....and dry air won't be a problem then, either.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
600. 900MB
Plenty of talk of deterioration here, but if you look at funktop, AVN, Dvorak, Rainbow, etc...the tops are very cold!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting thedawnawakening3:
Pulsing convective pattern suggests dry air is having an impact.


Looking at the darker areas of dry air right now.....it could be temporary.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:


Sorry, but no. Much as some might wish it were otherwise, unless Irene inexplicably dies or curves harmlessly out to sea, she will almost certainly become the nation's tenth weather disaster of 2011. In case you're wondering, here are the first nine:

1) Upper Midwest Flooding, Summer, 2011
2) Mississippi River flooding, Spring-Summer, 2011
3) Southern Plains/Southwest Drought, Heatwave, & Wildfires, Spring-Summer, 2011
4) Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, May 22-27, 2011
5) Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest Tornadoes, April 25-30, 2011
6) Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, April 14-16, 2011
7) Southeast/Midwest Tornadoes, April 8-11, 2011
8) Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, April 4-5, 2011
9) Groundhog Day Blizzard, Jan 29-Feb 3, 2011


You mean the tenth BILLION DOLLAR weather disaster, dontcha?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneAddict:


Lol I know..but it's just I believe with todays technology..they should be able to produce more certain forecasts. I wouldn't be surprised to see a shift back west. That turn to the NW and N looks to sharp.


Indeed, but generally models and forecasts are improving, and average NHC errors are decreasing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TybeeGirl:
Question for all the experts out there... Has anyone see the cone ever shift back south once it has begun a northerly migration for these East coast storms?
Yes..1965,s Hurricane Betsy is a good example.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19518
Quoting ecupirate:
Cantore travelling to Holden Beach, NC on Thursday...


I guess I spoke too soon!
Member Since: April 16, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 112
Looks like land interaction could throw the track out the window!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ironbanks:
New to the blog. All I can add is the forecast will change and this one looks like it will be stronger than forecast at this point. Katrina proved how fast they can explode with favorable conditions.


This isn't going to be Katrina....there are certain upper level conditions that allow a storm to blow up like that, and there is too much dry air as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TybeeGirl:
Question for all the experts out there... Has anyone see the cone ever shift back south once it has begun a northerly migration for these East coast storms?


Hurricane Jeanne, 2004. You'll find the track in Dr. M's blog above.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:
That's a big girl.



Sure is. 50 kt winds extend out nearly 130 miles to the NNE of the center.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
The recent radar presentation is very interesting. Appears that Irene has slowed down and taken more of WSW motion in the last couple of frames. Just a jog I think but still just goes to show you how tricky these storms are to forecast. If I lived anywhere from South Florida to the NE I would be keeping a close eye on this storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:
That's a big girl.




she has dropped 10 mb in 6 hrs? yikes....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 637 - 587

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.