Hurricane Irene pounds Puerto Rico, heads for Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 22, 2011

Share this Blog
30
+

Hurricane Irene strengthened into the season's first Atlantic hurricane at 5am EDT this morning as the eye moved over San Juan, Puerto Rico, and crossed into the ocean just north of the island. Overnight, Irene held its own as the eye passed over the most mountainous portion of Puerto Rico, the El Yunque region. Winds in the higher mountains likely reached Category 2 strength, 96 - 110 mph, according to measurements from the San Juan Terminal Doppler Radar, and the hurricane pounded the island with damaging winds and flooding rains, resulting in widespread tree damage and power failures that hit 800,000 people. The San Juan Airport recorded top winds of 41 mph, gusting to 55 mph, and 2.87" of rain, as of 9am AST. Tropical storm conditions affected the Virgin Islands, with St. Thomas recording sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 67 mph, and 4.03" of rain as of 6am AST today. At 7am EDT, the ship Horizon Trader measured sustained northeast winds of 69 mph and wave heights of 11.5 feet at 19°N, in the northern eyewall of Irene. Latest observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Irene is slowly intensifying, with a central pressure of 989 mb observed at 9:42am EDT. The eyewall is not fully formed yet, with a gap on the south side. This gap will need to close off before the hurricane can undergo rapid intensification.


Figure 1. A direct hit: the center of Hurricane Irene passed directly over the Terminal Doppler Radar at San Juan, Puerto Rico between 4am and 5am AST this morning.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models show good agreement that Irene will pass along the north coast of Hispaniola today, but just a slight wobble in Irene's track to take it farther offshore--or push it onshore, over the mountains--will have major impacts on the ultimate path and strength of the hurricane. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene more to the northwest by Wednesday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most popular solution among the models is to take Irene to the northwest through the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday, then into the Southeast U.S. coast in South Carolina or North Carolina on Saturday. Irene would then travel up the mid-Atlantic coast, arriving near Long Island, New York on Monday morning as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. One of the models proposing this solution is our best model, the ECMWF. However, we have two other of our very good models suggesting a landfall near Miami on Thursday night is likely (the GFDL and UKMET models.) NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart gave some good reasons in this morning's discussion to favor a track close to the east coast of Florida, but just offshore. Last years' worst performing major the model, the NOGAPS, predicts that Irene will pass out to sea, missing the Southeast U.S. coast. Keep in mind that the average error of a 4-day forecast from NHC is 200 miles, and just a small deviation in the path of a storm moving roughly parallel to the coast will make a huge difference in where it ultimately makes landfall. The NOAA jet will be flying its first dropsonde mission into Irene today, which should result in a more reliable set of model runs first thing Tuesday morning.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 29 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Satellite loops show that Irene is steadily growing in size, which will protect the storm against major disruption by its passage along the north shore of Hispaniola today. The storm is lacking much development on its southwest side, where dry air is interfering with development. This dry air may help keep southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from receiving more than 3 - 6 inches of rain. There is at least a 30% chance that passage of the eye over Hispaniola will reduce Irene to a tropical storm tonight and into Tuesday. Due to Hispaniola blocking inflow of moist air from the south, Irene will likely compensate by building an even larger region of heavy thunderstorms to the north, offshore. Thus, when Irene's center finally moves well away from the coast on Tuesday, it will be a bigger storm, with the potential to spread hurricane conditions over a wider area later in the week when it intensifies. One limiting factor for intensification may be in the upper-level outflow pattern. The hurricane is lifting a huge amount of air from the surface to the upper atmosphere, and all that mass has to be efficiently transported away in order for the hurricane to intensify. Right now, upper level outflow is only well-established to the north and east, and the forecast outflow pattern for the coming five days is only moderately favorable. Overall, I think the official NHC forecast of a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday is the right one, though Irene could easily be a Category 2 or Category 4 storm.

Irene's impact on the Dominican Republic
Heavy rains from Irene have already reached the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, where Punta Cana has seen wind gusts up to 29 mph this morning. The northeast coast of the country near Samana will receive the worst of Irene's wrath, with sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph and gusts above hurricane force likely to cause widespread tree damage and power outages today. Passage along the coast of the island may weaken Irene to a tropical storm by Tuesday morning, and wind damage in Puerto Plata may be less severe than at Samana. The capital of Santo Domingo will see lesser winds, perhaps 30 - 50 mph, with gusts to 60 mph. The main danger to the Dominican Republic will be Irene's torrential rains, which are likely to reach 20 inches in some mountainous regions, causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Irene's impact on Haiti
No nation in the Caribbean is more vulnerable to hurricanes than Haiti, whose northern reaches are expected to receive torrential rains of 5 - 10 inches from Irene. During the 2008 hurricane season, four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on Haiti, leaving over 1,000 people dead or missing. The path and intensity of Hurricane Irene are very similar to that of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which dumped 13 inches of rains on the nation's northern mountains. The rugged hillsides, stripped bare of 98% of their forest cover thanks to deforestation, let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country, killing over 3000 people, mostly in the town of Gonaives, the nation's 4th largest city. Jeanne ranks as the 12th deadliest hurricane of all time on the list of the 30 most deadly Atlantic hurricanes, and Irene's rains are capable of causing a similar disaster. During 2004 and again this year, ocean temperatures off the coast of Haiti were 1 - 1.5°C above average, one of the top five values seen in the past 100 years. Since more water vapor evaporates into the air from record warm waters, the potential for devastating floods from hurricanes is much higher in these situations. However, satellite images of Jeanne show the storm had much more moisture on its south side when it hit Hispaniola than Irene currently has, so I am hopeful that Irene's rains will not be as intense as Jeanne's were.


Figure 2. Track of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which followed a path very similar to what is expected from Hurricane Irene along the north coast of Hispaniola. Irene is not going to do a big loop like Jeanne did, though.

As bad as the hurricanes of 2004 and 2008 were, the January 2010 earthquake was far worse. Up to 316,000 may have been killed, and the capital city of Port-Au-Prince was devastated, leaving over 1.5 million people living under tarps during the 2010 hurricane season. Fortunately, Hurricane Tomas missed making a direct hit on Haiti, and Haiti escaped major loss of life during the 2010 hurricane season. This year, approximately 595,000 Haitians still live underneath tarps outdoors thanks to the earthquake, and these unfortunate people will be at risk of being swept away by flash flooding from Irene's torrential rains. However, Port-Au-Prince lies to the south of where Irene's main rains will fall, and I doubt the earthquake refugee camps will suffer from a major flooding disaster.


Figure 3. Hospital admissions (black bars) and death rate in percent (red line) for Haiti's cholera epidemic of 2010 - 2011. The cholera epidemic surged out of control after Hurricane Tomas dumped heavy rains on Haiti on November 4, 2010, with hospitalizations increasing by a factor of three for over a month. Over 3% of all people who contracted cholera died after Tomas' rains. However, sanitation and medical care improved in the following months, and the death rate fell by a factor of five to 0.7% by the summer of 2011. Another surge in cholera cases occurred in June 2011, doubling after heavy rainy season rains occurred. Cholera deaths doubled during the surge, but the death rate remained constant at 0.7%. Image credit: Pan American Health Organization.

Another danger is that Irene's rains will worsen the cholera epidemic that surfaced after the earthquake. Cholera is a water-borne disease, and spreads readily after heavy rains. As of August 12, 2011, the 2010 - 2011 cholera epidemic had infected 419,000 Haitians, killing 5,968. After Hurricane Tomas passed on November 5, 2010, cholera cases exploded, with hospital admissions more than tripling for over a month. Similarly, heavy rains in June 2011 during the country's usual rainy season caused doubled cholera cases and deaths for several weeks. We can expect that Irene's rains will cause at least a doubling of cholera cases for a month or more. This will lead to several hundred additional cholera deaths, given the disease's 0.7% mortality rate this summer in Haiti (during June and July 2011, 95,212 cases were reported, with 626 deaths.) An increase in cholera deaths due to Irene's rains is also a concern in the Dominican Republic, where cholera has sickened 14,000 people and killed 92 as of the end of July.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

See my 2010 post, Haiti's tragic hurricane history.

An exceptionally active of hurricane season
Hurricane season is only one-third over, and we've already had almost a full years' activity already. Tropical Storm Irene is the 9th named storm this year, and an average season has just 10 - 11 named storms. Irene's formation date of August 20 ties 2011 with 1936 as the 2nd earliest date for formation of the season's 9th storm. Only 2005 was more active this early. However, the first eight storms of the year have done far less damage than is typical. All eight storms stayed below hurricane strength, making 2011 the first hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851 to have more than six consecutive tropical storms that did not reach hurricane strength. As I discussed in Friday's post, a major reason for this is the lack of vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic so far this year. We've had a large amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and the usual amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara, both helping to keep the atmosphere stable and stop this year's storms from intensifying into hurricanes. Hurricane activity typically ramps up big-time by August 20, with more than 80% of all the hurricanes and 65% of all the tropical storms occurring after that date. At our current pace, 2011 will become the second busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 24 - 27 named storms. There are only 21 names in the list of names for a hurricane season, so we may have to break out the Greek alphabet again in late October this year, as occurred in 2005. Ironically, this was the last time the current set of names was used in the Atlantic, so 16 of this year's 21 names are repeats of 2005. I'm not too happy about seeing another hurricane season challenge the Hurricane Season of 2005 in any way, and let's hope we don't retire another five names this year, like occurred in 2005! With vertical instability much lower this year than in 2005, and that year having already seen one storm (Dennis) retired by this point in the season, I doubt that will happen, though.


Figure 4. The annual cycle of average hurricane frequency in the Atlantic. Historically, about 35% of all the tropical storms and 15% of all the hurricanes will have occurred by August 20.

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? Well, the best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). This model out-performed the official NHC forecast in 2010 for 1-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day forecasts, and in 2009 for 4-day and 5-day forecasts. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 5, over the past two years, the GFS and GFDL model have been the next best models, with the UKMET model not far behind. Last year, the NOGAPS model did very poorly, forcing NHC to come up with some new consensus models this year, the TCOA and TVCA, that do not include the NOGAPS model. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)


Figure 5. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms 2010. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models. Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2010 verification report.

Next post
There will be 2 - 3 posts per day in my blog this week during Irene, with Angela Fritz and Rob Carver doing some of the afternoon and evening posts.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico (lobdellJ)
Tropical Storm Irene hits the north coast of Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR (ronmil)
The first bands or Irene approaching Maunabo, Puerto Rico (SE corner)...
Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR
Irene (reefchild)
Irene @OPkB OceanParkBeach Puerto Rico 7pm
Irene

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 987 - 937

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40Blog Index

987. 7544
wow if the gfdl is right this could worst than andrew and effect way more people and all of fla that is a nightmare does the nhc look at this model at all tia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:


School's been keeping me busy...And with just starting a 21 credit hour term; I'm hoping Irene stays clear of us. I'm yet to be convinced of any solution yet though.



Well I don't buy GFDL kinda Like the GFS but once that upper air data gets in should cluster things a bit more also I think the interaction with Hispaniola will play a big roll on end game
Member Since: August 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 131
WOW! 20 pages already at 2PM...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JohnsIslandJoe:

I'm going to wait until Wednesday before I hit the panic button. Still too much uncertainty with respect to the projected track. If it's hits Edisto Beach Chas will receive the nasty northern quadrant but if it moves 50 miles to the east we will miss the real ugliness. I think we are in for some part Irene reguardless.


My Johns Island homeboy!!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting Midwestwatcher:


Scariest thing is that the ECMWF has been the most accurate for the last couple of years.


Any chance someone could post a link to the ECMWF - t/y
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Poor Richard's habitat ?
I guess he didn't think to include a lightning rod in the construction...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RyanFSU:
12z GFDL -- Category 5 into Miami: doom scenario and track with 50-100$ billion in damage
,still trending east,it'll be offshore the east coast of fl by this time tomorrows run
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Nothing to see at Gitmo and, honestly, we will probably not get a good view from there.



Maybe because the loop is from 2009? :)
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11501
Quoting RitaEvac:
NHC better have a bunker




Is this a for real map or did someone make it up??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
seeing the current modles and track forcast all i can think of is a storm heading for Washington or New York Wall street .. If the economy wasn't bad enough .. then ram a hurricane up its kester. just thinking back to the 38 New England Expresss. The east coast realy hasn't had a big one since Hugo and is just a bit overdue.. If it happens it happens if it recuves so be it. Just thinking that this storm is going to have some sort of impact on the U.S. as to where and when .. well thats still to be determined so will see what the next 48 to 80 hours hold for tracking.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting msgambler:
I'm just glad the GOM is out of the topic of discussion. Don' need it nor want it.


Weeeeeell, if she stalls and screws around too long it could track to GOM down the road...
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9689
Quoting presslord:


yup..there's a far greater chance that we won't see anything from this than that we will...




Yea I would think 20 years of following these storms would give me some idea but again this could be the one I mean we are due just hope its not this one
Member Since: August 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 131
EVERYBODY JUST CALM DOWN!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WCSCTVCharleston:



Thank you Junkie long time no see


School's been keeping me busy...And with just starting a 21 credit hour term; I'm hoping Irene stays clear of us. I'm yet to be convinced of any solution yet though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
you can leave the center off the coast of florida but all you need is hurricane force winds 20 miles out from center and take out a big swatch of broward and palm beach county.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GoWVU:
Ok, My fellow Charleston folks when should the panic button be hit? I went through my kit yesterday and ran the generator all works.... thoughts

I'm going to wait until Wednesday before I hit the panic button. Still too much uncertainty with respect to the projected track. If it's hits Edisto Beach Chas will receive the nasty northern quadrant but if it moves 50 miles to the east we will miss the real ugliness. I think we are in for some part Irene reguardless.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Visible and Infrared Satellite imagery shows Irene may be taking a more WNW track again instead of the westward track earlier this afternoon.
Member Since: July 29, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 5
I swear I watched "it could happen tommorow" hurricane about savannah on twc very recently.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I believe 98L deserved an upgrade at the 2pm TWO. All of the focus at the NHC is on Irene, as it should be.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Nothing to see at Gitmo and, honestly, we will probably not get a good view from there.

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Well, you've now covered all bases from forecasting Miami to Long Island and every point in between. Good work. Now, no matter what happens, you're right. Check-mate.


But.....That's exactly what GFS is predicting...

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WCSCTVCharleston:



Thank you Junkie long time no see


yup..there's a far greater chance that we won't see anything from this than that we will...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Good spot. Has a good structure, this wave. May get a mention in a TWO tomorrow.


First of the 3 the GFS develops...it doesn't show much development until the 96hr time fram.e
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting interstatelover7165:
It's like the 1935 Miami Hurricane.


I meant that was the fourth time someone posted that graphic...in the last 20 seconds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting canehater1:
2 pm EDT intermediate advisory is out..no changes in

strength or track


They don't adjust the track on intermediate advisories, only the initial point. Notice the bend to the south at the beginning now? Irene is running left (South) of the 11am track.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
960. 7544
another jog west
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
UKMET Office

Irene now just off the east coast of Florida

HURRICANE IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 66.9W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092011



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 22.08.2011 18.8N 66.9W STRONG

00UTC 23.08.2011 19.9N 69.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.08.2011 20.8N 71.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.08.2011 21.0N 73.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2011 21.7N 75.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.08.2011 22.6N 76.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 25.08.2011 24.0N 78.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.08.2011 25.7N 79.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 26.08.2011 27.7N 79.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.08.2011 29.8N 79.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 27.08.2011 31.5N 80.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.08.2011 32.7N 79.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 28.08.2011 34.6N 78.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11501
Quoting StormJunkie:


Pretty positive he does...And he is absolutely correct. Storms typically are targeted for Florida and then the projected path moves up the cost. That said, no storms plays strictly by historical data. Everything is up in the air right now. When the global 00z runs come out in the early am; I expect we'll have a better general idea.



Thank you Junkie long time no see
Member Since: August 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 131
ONLY ON 3: Hurricane Expert George Elliott's take on Irene
Submitted by George Elliott on Mon, 08/22/2011 - 11:20am.
READ MORE: News Weather Bladen County News Brunswick County News Columbus County News Duplin County News New Hanover County News Onslow County News Pender County News George Elliott Hurricane Irene
2Share
WILMINGTON, NC (WWAY) -- Hurricane Irene is the first storm of the season that I feel is a genuine threat to the Southeast. As I was mentioned a few days ago, the evolution of the system has been consistent with my thinking, that being, a Saturday landfall somewhere in South Carolina. This IS NOT to say I am completely convinced at this early stage of the storm, but so far, my feelings and analysis has been consistent with my forecast.

I do feel that the brunt of the storm will either miss Florida, or graze the east coast before taking a more northwest and northward track (taking advantage of a weakening of an upper-level ridge of high pressure now steering the storm mainly west and west-north-west) toward the Georgia and the Carolina's. I will also mention, at this point, from a statistical perspective, Georgia has a history of missing storms, as the atmosphere and the steering components (as well as the curvature of the coastline) favor a sharper turn toward the Carolina's in general... that's historically speaking.

Also, a weakening of the ridge of high pressure I mentioned can be induced to strengthen again by the interaction of the middle-level flow of the hurricane itself. In this sense, the hurricane can induce a closer path to South Carolina as opposed to North Carolina by temporarily rebuilding a mid-level ridge. This would force the storm to delay a northeast turn, which would hopefully keep it from making landfall in North Carolina. Of course, this would reduce the chance of the best case scenario in which the storm quickly curves northeastward and misses the coast completely.

All this is early in the game, of course, and I'm on top of it, believe me. I'll be seeing on the air during or evening newscasts beginning Tuesday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
I know the focus is on Irene, but I noticed the 12z GFS develops 3 CV storms in a row in the next several days.


Yep, with the structure of the one that just move off Africa, I could see it becoming the next named system.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Hey, MississippiWX, are you agreeing with models shifting even more east and missing SC/NC? Or Florida to NC is still not off the hook? Getting little nervous here in Raleigh...


Storm is still days off. Pay attention to Greg Fishel and you'll be alright. I'm in Raleigh too. We are by no means off the hook yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think we can see why GFDL is so far west, pressure rise to 1000mb over hispaniola. Pretty dramatic weakening. once Irene is past Hispaniola, I expect models to come to a closer consensus.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vero1:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2011



...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 16N15W. A TROPICAL
WAVE WITH A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FURTHER SW NEAR 13N17W.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AS
IT MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY.


Good spot. Has a good structure, this wave. May get a mention in a TWO tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


A 1mb pressure rise in a hurricane is not indicative of a general weakening trend.

Plus, that's a pressure ESTIMATE...I'm sure the recon will find more reliable pressure readings lower than this as they continue sampling the storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RevInFL:
Hi all. I saw the 2pm update and saw that TS force winds now extend out 185 miles. Seems all the weather forecasters in my area say I will be safe in East Central Florida,how far is Irene going to miss to the east of the peninsula? I mean 185 miles is pretty wide wind field.


It may not miss the FL peninsula... still much in play at this point.

You are still in the cone per the NHC.

In any event a close approach could bring TS or hurricane conditions.

You should make sure you're prepared and pay attention to the local authorities and the NHC advisories.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
Quoting KEHCharleston:

Does Live5 Weather know that you are using the Live5 logo and making these statements?



I work in production and I am very good friends with Bill, Brad and Chad AGAIN I am a tropical weather junkie and have my OWN opinions
Member Since: August 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 131
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane Irene Video Update
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
I'm just glad the GOM is out of the topic of discussion. Don' need it nor want it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HENSCOLASC:


If it continues like it's going now, It looks like the people in the Columbia, SC area had better get ready for a bunch of visitors from the coast! (better start booking your rooms now!) We'll have horrendous traffic jams as people travel through Columbia on their way from Charleston all the way up to Myrtle Beach! Fun Fun Fun!


yea...and when Columbia is the more attractive choice...it's gotta be really bad...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
943. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2011



...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 16N15W. A TROPICAL
WAVE WITH A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FURTHER SW NEAR 13N17W.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AS
IT MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFDL is a ridge pumper.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting yonzabam:
How many billions of dollars damage would a cat 4 slamming into Miami do, I wonder? I think it could surpass Katrina. $50 billion, maybe?


$50 billion does not even scratch Katrina's level of damage.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm is not weakening, just intensification has stopped somewhat for the time being, although low level spiral banding is beginning to take shape on the southside of her circulation. low level cumulus field is increasing within the developing equatorward outflow channel. This is a sign of a strengthening low level circulation.
Member Since: July 29, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 5
So many Einstein's, so few professionals
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
gfdl hasnt budged FL is still under the gun
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You left out the 12Z HWRF DOOOOOOOOM for the Bahamas

Yeah but nobody cares about the Bahamas, so it's just doom (small letters) for them...

(**SARCASM!!** I know some bloggers are from there and are very concerned, so don't take it as an insult!)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 987 - 937

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto
New Years Day Sunset in Death Valley