Hurricane Irene pounds Puerto Rico, heads for Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 22, 2011

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Hurricane Irene strengthened into the season's first Atlantic hurricane at 5am EDT this morning as the eye moved over San Juan, Puerto Rico, and crossed into the ocean just north of the island. Overnight, Irene held its own as the eye passed over the most mountainous portion of Puerto Rico, the El Yunque region. Winds in the higher mountains likely reached Category 2 strength, 96 - 110 mph, according to measurements from the San Juan Terminal Doppler Radar, and the hurricane pounded the island with damaging winds and flooding rains, resulting in widespread tree damage and power failures that hit 800,000 people. The San Juan Airport recorded top winds of 41 mph, gusting to 55 mph, and 2.87" of rain, as of 9am AST. Tropical storm conditions affected the Virgin Islands, with St. Thomas recording sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 67 mph, and 4.03" of rain as of 6am AST today. At 7am EDT, the ship Horizon Trader measured sustained northeast winds of 69 mph and wave heights of 11.5 feet at 19°N, in the northern eyewall of Irene. Latest observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Irene is slowly intensifying, with a central pressure of 989 mb observed at 9:42am EDT. The eyewall is not fully formed yet, with a gap on the south side. This gap will need to close off before the hurricane can undergo rapid intensification.


Figure 1. A direct hit: the center of Hurricane Irene passed directly over the Terminal Doppler Radar at San Juan, Puerto Rico between 4am and 5am AST this morning.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models show good agreement that Irene will pass along the north coast of Hispaniola today, but just a slight wobble in Irene's track to take it farther offshore--or push it onshore, over the mountains--will have major impacts on the ultimate path and strength of the hurricane. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene more to the northwest by Wednesday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most popular solution among the models is to take Irene to the northwest through the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday, then into the Southeast U.S. coast in South Carolina or North Carolina on Saturday. Irene would then travel up the mid-Atlantic coast, arriving near Long Island, New York on Monday morning as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. One of the models proposing this solution is our best model, the ECMWF. However, we have two other of our very good models suggesting a landfall near Miami on Thursday night is likely (the GFDL and UKMET models.) NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart gave some good reasons in this morning's discussion to favor a track close to the east coast of Florida, but just offshore. Last years' worst performing major the model, the NOGAPS, predicts that Irene will pass out to sea, missing the Southeast U.S. coast. Keep in mind that the average error of a 4-day forecast from NHC is 200 miles, and just a small deviation in the path of a storm moving roughly parallel to the coast will make a huge difference in where it ultimately makes landfall. The NOAA jet will be flying its first dropsonde mission into Irene today, which should result in a more reliable set of model runs first thing Tuesday morning.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 29 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Satellite loops show that Irene is steadily growing in size, which will protect the storm against major disruption by its passage along the north shore of Hispaniola today. The storm is lacking much development on its southwest side, where dry air is interfering with development. This dry air may help keep southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from receiving more than 3 - 6 inches of rain. There is at least a 30% chance that passage of the eye over Hispaniola will reduce Irene to a tropical storm tonight and into Tuesday. Due to Hispaniola blocking inflow of moist air from the south, Irene will likely compensate by building an even larger region of heavy thunderstorms to the north, offshore. Thus, when Irene's center finally moves well away from the coast on Tuesday, it will be a bigger storm, with the potential to spread hurricane conditions over a wider area later in the week when it intensifies. One limiting factor for intensification may be in the upper-level outflow pattern. The hurricane is lifting a huge amount of air from the surface to the upper atmosphere, and all that mass has to be efficiently transported away in order for the hurricane to intensify. Right now, upper level outflow is only well-established to the north and east, and the forecast outflow pattern for the coming five days is only moderately favorable. Overall, I think the official NHC forecast of a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday is the right one, though Irene could easily be a Category 2 or Category 4 storm.

Irene's impact on the Dominican Republic
Heavy rains from Irene have already reached the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, where Punta Cana has seen wind gusts up to 29 mph this morning. The northeast coast of the country near Samana will receive the worst of Irene's wrath, with sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph and gusts above hurricane force likely to cause widespread tree damage and power outages today. Passage along the coast of the island may weaken Irene to a tropical storm by Tuesday morning, and wind damage in Puerto Plata may be less severe than at Samana. The capital of Santo Domingo will see lesser winds, perhaps 30 - 50 mph, with gusts to 60 mph. The main danger to the Dominican Republic will be Irene's torrential rains, which are likely to reach 20 inches in some mountainous regions, causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Irene's impact on Haiti
No nation in the Caribbean is more vulnerable to hurricanes than Haiti, whose northern reaches are expected to receive torrential rains of 5 - 10 inches from Irene. During the 2008 hurricane season, four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on Haiti, leaving over 1,000 people dead or missing. The path and intensity of Hurricane Irene are very similar to that of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which dumped 13 inches of rains on the nation's northern mountains. The rugged hillsides, stripped bare of 98% of their forest cover thanks to deforestation, let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country, killing over 3000 people, mostly in the town of Gonaives, the nation's 4th largest city. Jeanne ranks as the 12th deadliest hurricane of all time on the list of the 30 most deadly Atlantic hurricanes, and Irene's rains are capable of causing a similar disaster. During 2004 and again this year, ocean temperatures off the coast of Haiti were 1 - 1.5°C above average, one of the top five values seen in the past 100 years. Since more water vapor evaporates into the air from record warm waters, the potential for devastating floods from hurricanes is much higher in these situations. However, satellite images of Jeanne show the storm had much more moisture on its south side when it hit Hispaniola than Irene currently has, so I am hopeful that Irene's rains will not be as intense as Jeanne's were.


Figure 2. Track of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which followed a path very similar to what is expected from Hurricane Irene along the north coast of Hispaniola. Irene is not going to do a big loop like Jeanne did, though.

As bad as the hurricanes of 2004 and 2008 were, the January 2010 earthquake was far worse. Up to 316,000 may have been killed, and the capital city of Port-Au-Prince was devastated, leaving over 1.5 million people living under tarps during the 2010 hurricane season. Fortunately, Hurricane Tomas missed making a direct hit on Haiti, and Haiti escaped major loss of life during the 2010 hurricane season. This year, approximately 595,000 Haitians still live underneath tarps outdoors thanks to the earthquake, and these unfortunate people will be at risk of being swept away by flash flooding from Irene's torrential rains. However, Port-Au-Prince lies to the south of where Irene's main rains will fall, and I doubt the earthquake refugee camps will suffer from a major flooding disaster.


Figure 3. Hospital admissions (black bars) and death rate in percent (red line) for Haiti's cholera epidemic of 2010 - 2011. The cholera epidemic surged out of control after Hurricane Tomas dumped heavy rains on Haiti on November 4, 2010, with hospitalizations increasing by a factor of three for over a month. Over 3% of all people who contracted cholera died after Tomas' rains. However, sanitation and medical care improved in the following months, and the death rate fell by a factor of five to 0.7% by the summer of 2011. Another surge in cholera cases occurred in June 2011, doubling after heavy rainy season rains occurred. Cholera deaths doubled during the surge, but the death rate remained constant at 0.7%. Image credit: Pan American Health Organization.

Another danger is that Irene's rains will worsen the cholera epidemic that surfaced after the earthquake. Cholera is a water-borne disease, and spreads readily after heavy rains. As of August 12, 2011, the 2010 - 2011 cholera epidemic had infected 419,000 Haitians, killing 5,968. After Hurricane Tomas passed on November 5, 2010, cholera cases exploded, with hospital admissions more than tripling for over a month. Similarly, heavy rains in June 2011 during the country's usual rainy season caused doubled cholera cases and deaths for several weeks. We can expect that Irene's rains will cause at least a doubling of cholera cases for a month or more. This will lead to several hundred additional cholera deaths, given the disease's 0.7% mortality rate this summer in Haiti (during June and July 2011, 95,212 cases were reported, with 626 deaths.) An increase in cholera deaths due to Irene's rains is also a concern in the Dominican Republic, where cholera has sickened 14,000 people and killed 92 as of the end of July.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

See my 2010 post, Haiti's tragic hurricane history.

An exceptionally active of hurricane season
Hurricane season is only one-third over, and we've already had almost a full years' activity already. Tropical Storm Irene is the 9th named storm this year, and an average season has just 10 - 11 named storms. Irene's formation date of August 20 ties 2011 with 1936 as the 2nd earliest date for formation of the season's 9th storm. Only 2005 was more active this early. However, the first eight storms of the year have done far less damage than is typical. All eight storms stayed below hurricane strength, making 2011 the first hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851 to have more than six consecutive tropical storms that did not reach hurricane strength. As I discussed in Friday's post, a major reason for this is the lack of vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic so far this year. We've had a large amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and the usual amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara, both helping to keep the atmosphere stable and stop this year's storms from intensifying into hurricanes. Hurricane activity typically ramps up big-time by August 20, with more than 80% of all the hurricanes and 65% of all the tropical storms occurring after that date. At our current pace, 2011 will become the second busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 24 - 27 named storms. There are only 21 names in the list of names for a hurricane season, so we may have to break out the Greek alphabet again in late October this year, as occurred in 2005. Ironically, this was the last time the current set of names was used in the Atlantic, so 16 of this year's 21 names are repeats of 2005. I'm not too happy about seeing another hurricane season challenge the Hurricane Season of 2005 in any way, and let's hope we don't retire another five names this year, like occurred in 2005! With vertical instability much lower this year than in 2005, and that year having already seen one storm (Dennis) retired by this point in the season, I doubt that will happen, though.


Figure 4. The annual cycle of average hurricane frequency in the Atlantic. Historically, about 35% of all the tropical storms and 15% of all the hurricanes will have occurred by August 20.

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? Well, the best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). This model out-performed the official NHC forecast in 2010 for 1-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day forecasts, and in 2009 for 4-day and 5-day forecasts. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 5, over the past two years, the GFS and GFDL model have been the next best models, with the UKMET model not far behind. Last year, the NOGAPS model did very poorly, forcing NHC to come up with some new consensus models this year, the TCOA and TVCA, that do not include the NOGAPS model. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)


Figure 5. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms 2010. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models. Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2010 verification report.

Next post
There will be 2 - 3 posts per day in my blog this week during Irene, with Angela Fritz and Rob Carver doing some of the afternoon and evening posts.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico (lobdellJ)
Tropical Storm Irene hits the north coast of Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR (ronmil)
The first bands or Irene approaching Maunabo, Puerto Rico (SE corner)...
Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR
Irene (reefchild)
Irene @OPkB OceanParkBeach Puerto Rico 7pm
Irene

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1387. trey33
Anyone know where Jim Cantore is?
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Quoting weatherguy03:
So what did we have at the 12Z model runs?? Overall the consensus has shifted farther East and is now pointed at a North Carolina landfall. The UKMET and the GFS made the biggest moves East with the UKMET moving from just off the West Coast of Florida to a landfall across South Carolina. The GFS moved to the North Carolina OBX. The GFDL shifted alittle East yet again and is now pointed towards Miami. The HWRF stayed the same pointed at South Carolina. The only model to move West some was the Euro moving towards Wilmington, N.C.. Overall I expect the NHC to shift the track alittle East at 5PM.


Do you think we'll see continued eastward movement of the models? Or will they seesaw for a couple of days?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1385. NEwxguy
Looking at the lates NWS thinking and the long range now is leading to keeping Irene off shore and moving just south of Cape Cod.
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1384. wpb
http://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2011/08/22/g-iv-flight -mission-hurricane-irene/


giv drop points
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ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004

RECON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INDCIATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
DECREASED TO 939 MB. A DROPSONDE AT 01/1904Z INDICATED WINDS OF 154
KT...OR 177 MPH...AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE HIGHEST 700 MB RECON
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 2210Z WAS 134 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 121-KT
SURFACE WIND. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...FRANCES IS BEING HELD AT
120 KT...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERBALE
WOBBLE IN THE TRACK THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. FRANCES HAS BEEN MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. [b]THE GULFSTREAM-IV JET AND AN AFRES C-130
HAVE BEEN RELEASING DROPSONDES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF FRANCES. THE
SONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS.
THE HEIGHT DATA FOR THE VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS...COMPARED TO 18Z
SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA...APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO
LOW. HOWEVER...THE WIND DATA CLEARLY INDICATE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N 75W...OR ABOUT 500 NMI NORTHWEST OF
FRANCES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
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Nice set up as she moves away from D.R.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
Quoting ElConando:
Would not want to be in the core right now.





Isn't that the Riddler's signal?
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Quoting MississippiWx:


I don't think she's close enough to Hispaniola's most rugged terrain to give her any issues like that. Take the most recent infrared for example. It shows a large blow up of intense cold cloud tops over Irene's center. Land interaction with PR disrupted the core because it was so fragile to begin with being in its development stages. She's starting to overcome that now.

Yep, I've been saying the same thing for the last few days. The high mountains everyone talks about are over the center of the island and west side. The whole eastern half and northern coastline is not very rugged or mountainous at all


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Quoting HurricaneDevo:


Not to mention the mandatory stocking up of Cheetos.


DING! I knew I was missing something.
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1376. bappit
Quoting TomTaylor:
Upper convergence around the base of the trough over the east coast of the United States is creating upper level convergence along the west side of Irene.

This issue may improve some over time as the trough lifts out, however, upper convergence is forecasted to remain on the west side which will continue to limit outflow and convection on that side.

So what you're saying is that the trough is, well. Ummmm hmmmm.

I thought it might just be a bit of shear and the dry air over there.
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Quoting ElConando:
Would not want to be in the core right now.





Almost looks like an ear, listening to the blog.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Just noticed the track it takes IRENE if she had no weather environment influences


That would have 200 billion dollars written all over it. But thank goodness we have weather influences.
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HPC Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:


FOR IRENE AND THE EAST COAST...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED MORE TO
THE EAST WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE TRENDING TO THE EAST/OFFSHORE IN
NHC FORECASTS LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH INTERACTIONS WITH A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY
COMPLICATE THE FORECAST LATER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD AS IRENE
PASSES NEAR NEW ENGLAND...IRENE SHOULD ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
ALONG A PARABOLIC TRACK...WITH THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
AND CAPE COD MOST AT RISK AT THIS TIME. PER THE COORDINATED TRACK
WITH NHC AT 17Z...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS SHOULD INITIALLY FORM
ALONG A DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH
BECOMES REINFORCED BY A FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE WESTERLIES.
HEAVY RAINS SHOULD SPREAD UP THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES WITH TIME. THE CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST JUST
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SUNDAY. IF THE NHC TRACK SHIFTS
FARTHER TO THE RIGHT/EAST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST COAST COULD LESSEN FURTHER. SEE THE LATEST
REASONING/TRACK FROM THE NHC REGARDING HURRICANE IRENE.



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1372. GBguy88
Quoting Grandpato4:
I have already called the folks to put up my hurricane shutters. They are going to come on Wednesday morning if it appears the storm could head our way. Although we are ocean front, I am thinking about staying if the storm goes as projected. Can anybody tell me what type of weather we would receive here in Atlantic Beach, NC?


If you're in Atlantic Beach and Irene decides to head your way as a potential Category 4 hurricane...one might consider that playing God to stay right on the ocean.
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LinkWVLoop

Another interesting evening ahead for Irene-watchers.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
Quoting Vero1:
Looking Back: Irene Pounded South Florida In 1999

POSTED: 7:14 am EDT August 22, 2011
UPDATED: 7:32 am EDT August 22, 2011

Irene is the first hurricane of the season, but did you know when she slammed into South Florida in 1999, she was the sixth?

The storm started in the western Caribbean Sea on Oct. 13, pounded portions of Cuba, then moved on to Miami, where it dropped up to 20 inches of rain in some areas, the most since Hurricane Dennis nearly 20 years earlier.

Irene was only a Category 1 hurricane while it toyed with the Sunshine State, but it still caused eight deaths and $800 million in damage.

Irene later moved northward and left its mark on Virginia and North Carolina as well.

Information taken from Wikipedia Copyright 2011 by WPBF.com. All rights reserved




All day, The NHC was saying there is NO WAY this is going to Miami and the east coast of Florida that this was a naples storm. All day THAT irene headed towards southEAST Florida. With no warnings, alot of businesses would not CLOSE. I found myself driving home in a bad situation that day. I dont trust storms named .. Irene.
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Quoting kylejourdan2006:


Why would the center jump to the northwest? It's currently located under the deepest thunderstorm activity and cloud tops are continuing to cool around the center...there's no reason for the center to "jump" or re-organize...


I think he means wobble.
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1368. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Just noticed the track it takes IRENE if she had no weather environment influences
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Quoting LargoFl:
I notice two models put it straight up inside florida, not taking my eyes off this one till its in new york


GFTI & GHMI
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Quoting yoboi:
does anyone have the link where you can get real time video from the HH planes? or is that classified?


I wasn't aware that they streamed that information; so you're envisioning sort of a Youtube kind of thing?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
09L/H/I/C1
last few frames I see her jetting out the top.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
kman, Irene's 850mb vort is stretched south of the DR to the east of Jamaica and deepened over the past 3 hours. Any chance she pulls a Gustav and relocates her center down there like he did ?


Not kman - but, no. Plus, those vorticity maps have been acting strange recently. They showed Hurricane Greg's vorticity weakening as the storm itself was strengthening.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Quoting 900MB:


Personally, I think you are going to see the center jump NW in the next several frames.


Why would the center jump to the northwest? It's currently located under the deepest thunderstorm activity and cloud tops are continuing to cool around the center...there's no reason for the center to "jump" or re-organize...
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
So what did we have at the 12Z model runs?? Overall the consensus has shifted farther East and is now pointed at a North Carolina landfall. The UKMET and the GFS made the biggest moves East with the UKMET moving from just off the West Coast of Florida to a landfall across South Carolina. The GFS moved to the North Carolina OBX. The GFDL shifted alittle East yet again and is now pointed towards Miami. The HWRF stayed the same pointed at South Carolina. The only model to move West some was the Euro moving towards Wilmington, N.C.. Overall I expect the NHC to shift the track alittle East at 5PM.
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Quoting yonzabam:



This is why we've had a record 8 consecutive tropical storms with none of them becoming hurricanes.

The subsiding air may well prevent Irene from developing much. Models and NHC forecasters don't seem to have a handle on this.
Don't take it the wrong way, I'm not saying Irene won't intensify. Under warm SSTs, ample TCHP, low shear, good divergence to the east, Irene will definitely continue to intensify.

All I'm saying is that the upper convergence on the western side and resulting subsiding dry air will limit the storm somewhat.
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So, the weakness is basically causing the storm to go to Southeast Florida and the Bahamas?
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1358. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
09L/H/I/C1
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Quoting adrianalynne:
Do we have recon data in these model runs yet? I'm hoping the GFDL is out to lunch. It usually expect it out of the CMC.


00Z runs tonight will be the first, around 11:30pm.

Plane is in the air now.
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Sir, I beg you. Let's be more considerate with all of us who are on a diet at this time. Comments like this made me gain 10 pounds last week, and got me now salivating all over thinking of that awesome Cuban sandwhich.


Not to mention the mandatory stocking up of Cheetos.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Has Irene stalled, I don't hardly see any movement now at all?


Wouldn't be too surprising if she's slowed down, based on the satellite appearance (visible and infrared) she's doing a little organizing and possible strengthening...
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
1354. kwgirl
Quoting presslord:
I'm evacuating to Tampa...
You'll have more fun in the Keys:)
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Quoting yoboi:
does anyone have the link where you can get real time video from the HH planes? or is that classified?
Link
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kman, Irene's 850mb vort is stretched south of the DR to the east of Jamaica and deepened over the past 3 hours. Any chance she pulls a Gustav and relocates her center down there like he did ?
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Quoting 69Viking:


Yeah I love watching water vapor loops, they show just about every kind of spin there is. If you look at the Eastern U.S. Water Vapor you can see that front is only digging as far South as Georgia maybe and that the Texas High is keeping it from pushing back to Florida. Once that Low kicks out to the Northeast we'll be left with the Burmuda High filling back in to meet up the Texas High. I really think landfall of this one is going to be tough to call until it's about a day or two out.


Texas high going back NW to 4 corners which will really make things interesting
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1350. 900MB
Quoting stormpetrol:
Has Irene stalled, I don't hardly see any movement now at all?


Personally, I think you are going to see the center jump NW in the next several frames.
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Quoting Jax82:
her 850mb vorticity stretches nearly to Jamaica now, hmmm



Same with harvey showing his vort on land inaccurately seems less trustworthy at times strange
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1348. Vero1
Looking Back: Irene Pounded South Florida In 1999

POSTED: 7:14 am EDT August 22, 2011
UPDATED: 7:32 am EDT August 22, 2011

Irene is the first hurricane of the season, but did you know when she slammed into South Florida in 1999, she was the sixth?

The storm started in the western Caribbean Sea on Oct. 13, pounded portions of Cuba, then moved on to Miami, where it dropped up to 20 inches of rain in some areas, the most since Hurricane Dennis nearly 20 years earlier.

Irene was only a Category 1 hurricane while it toyed with the Sunshine State, but it still caused eight deaths and $800 million in damage.

Irene later moved northward and left its mark on Virginia and North Carolina as well.

Information taken from Wikipedia Copyright 2011 by WPBF.com. All rights reserved


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1347. K8eCane
I notice a lot of POTS call the Kettle black on here
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3222
1346. LargoFl
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





I notice two models put it straight up inside florida, not taking my eyes off this one till its in new york
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Would not want to be in the core right now.



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Quoting Jax82:
Visible



Exploding tops very evident there over the center of Irene. Looks like another round of intensification could commence tonight.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Quoting Contrarian:
Where is the Wind???

Going round and round and round in a circle at the center of Irene at better than 65 knots. That's my guess, anyway...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13801
1342. 7544
she looks like 85mph now
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting kmanislander:


WNW looks good to me. The Texas and AB highs are sandwiching a trough which in turn is holding open a weakness between the two highs and pulling Irene generally in the direction of S Fla and the Bahamas.


Hey kman. I think the gfs as well as most of the models are too east. I'm still thinking an east central Florida landfall and possibly a landfall as far north as south. Carolina. I won't make a determination until gulfstream data is put in models. What do u think
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Has Irene stalled, I don't hardly see any movement now at all?
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Quoting HurricaneDevo:


Do I see White in the eye wall?


Yes you do,Irene got some seriously cold/high cloudtops!
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Quoting TampaBayStevo:


AllStar, thats a nice graphic. Is there a way to see a larger version?


Yes - right click on the image and click View Image (On PC). Once you see it, you can click on it and make it even bigger.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
1337. wpb
if you hace the noaa jet flight plan were the dropsonde spots please post thanks
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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