Hurricane Irene pounds Puerto Rico, heads for Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on August 22, 2011

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Hurricane Irene strengthened into the season's first Atlantic hurricane at 5am EDT this morning as the eye moved over San Juan, Puerto Rico, and crossed into the ocean just north of the island. Overnight, Irene held its own as the eye passed over the most mountainous portion of Puerto Rico, the El Yunque region. Winds in the higher mountains likely reached Category 2 strength, 96 - 110 mph, according to measurements from the San Juan Terminal Doppler Radar, and the hurricane pounded the island with damaging winds and flooding rains, resulting in widespread tree damage and power failures that hit 800,000 people. The San Juan Airport recorded top winds of 41 mph, gusting to 55 mph, and 2.87" of rain, as of 9am AST. Tropical storm conditions affected the Virgin Islands, with St. Thomas recording sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 67 mph, and 4.03" of rain as of 6am AST today. At 7am EDT, the ship Horizon Trader measured sustained northeast winds of 69 mph and wave heights of 11.5 feet at 19°N, in the northern eyewall of Irene. Latest observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Irene is slowly intensifying, with a central pressure of 989 mb observed at 9:42am EDT. The eyewall is not fully formed yet, with a gap on the south side. This gap will need to close off before the hurricane can undergo rapid intensification.


Figure 1. A direct hit: the center of Hurricane Irene passed directly over the Terminal Doppler Radar at San Juan, Puerto Rico between 4am and 5am AST this morning.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models show good agreement that Irene will pass along the north coast of Hispaniola today, but just a slight wobble in Irene's track to take it farther offshore--or push it onshore, over the mountains--will have major impacts on the ultimate path and strength of the hurricane. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene more to the northwest by Wednesday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most popular solution among the models is to take Irene to the northwest through the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday, then into the Southeast U.S. coast in South Carolina or North Carolina on Saturday. Irene would then travel up the mid-Atlantic coast, arriving near Long Island, New York on Monday morning as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. One of the models proposing this solution is our best model, the ECMWF. However, we have two other of our very good models suggesting a landfall near Miami on Thursday night is likely (the GFDL and UKMET models.) NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart gave some good reasons in this morning's discussion to favor a track close to the east coast of Florida, but just offshore. Last years' worst performing major the model, the NOGAPS, predicts that Irene will pass out to sea, missing the Southeast U.S. coast. Keep in mind that the average error of a 4-day forecast from NHC is 200 miles, and just a small deviation in the path of a storm moving roughly parallel to the coast will make a huge difference in where it ultimately makes landfall. The NOAA jet will be flying its first dropsonde mission into Irene today, which should result in a more reliable set of model runs first thing Tuesday morning.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 29 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Satellite loops show that Irene is steadily growing in size, which will protect the storm against major disruption by its passage along the north shore of Hispaniola today. The storm is lacking much development on its southwest side, where dry air is interfering with development. This dry air may help keep southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from receiving more than 3 - 6 inches of rain. There is at least a 30% chance that passage of the eye over Hispaniola will reduce Irene to a tropical storm tonight and into Tuesday. Due to Hispaniola blocking inflow of moist air from the south, Irene will likely compensate by building an even larger region of heavy thunderstorms to the north, offshore. Thus, when Irene's center finally moves well away from the coast on Tuesday, it will be a bigger storm, with the potential to spread hurricane conditions over a wider area later in the week when it intensifies. One limiting factor for intensification may be in the upper-level outflow pattern. The hurricane is lifting a huge amount of air from the surface to the upper atmosphere, and all that mass has to be efficiently transported away in order for the hurricane to intensify. Right now, upper level outflow is only well-established to the north and east, and the forecast outflow pattern for the coming five days is only moderately favorable. Overall, I think the official NHC forecast of a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday is the right one, though Irene could easily be a Category 2 or Category 4 storm.

Irene's impact on the Dominican Republic
Heavy rains from Irene have already reached the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, where Punta Cana has seen wind gusts up to 29 mph this morning. The northeast coast of the country near Samana will receive the worst of Irene's wrath, with sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph and gusts above hurricane force likely to cause widespread tree damage and power outages today. Passage along the coast of the island may weaken Irene to a tropical storm by Tuesday morning, and wind damage in Puerto Plata may be less severe than at Samana. The capital of Santo Domingo will see lesser winds, perhaps 30 - 50 mph, with gusts to 60 mph. The main danger to the Dominican Republic will be Irene's torrential rains, which are likely to reach 20 inches in some mountainous regions, causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Irene's impact on Haiti
No nation in the Caribbean is more vulnerable to hurricanes than Haiti, whose northern reaches are expected to receive torrential rains of 5 - 10 inches from Irene. During the 2008 hurricane season, four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on Haiti, leaving over 1,000 people dead or missing. The path and intensity of Hurricane Irene are very similar to that of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which dumped 13 inches of rains on the nation's northern mountains. The rugged hillsides, stripped bare of 98% of their forest cover thanks to deforestation, let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country, killing over 3000 people, mostly in the town of Gonaives, the nation's 4th largest city. Jeanne ranks as the 12th deadliest hurricane of all time on the list of the 30 most deadly Atlantic hurricanes, and Irene's rains are capable of causing a similar disaster. During 2004 and again this year, ocean temperatures off the coast of Haiti were 1 - 1.5°C above average, one of the top five values seen in the past 100 years. Since more water vapor evaporates into the air from record warm waters, the potential for devastating floods from hurricanes is much higher in these situations. However, satellite images of Jeanne show the storm had much more moisture on its south side when it hit Hispaniola than Irene currently has, so I am hopeful that Irene's rains will not be as intense as Jeanne's were.


Figure 2. Track of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which followed a path very similar to what is expected from Hurricane Irene along the north coast of Hispaniola. Irene is not going to do a big loop like Jeanne did, though.

As bad as the hurricanes of 2004 and 2008 were, the January 2010 earthquake was far worse. Up to 316,000 may have been killed, and the capital city of Port-Au-Prince was devastated, leaving over 1.5 million people living under tarps during the 2010 hurricane season. Fortunately, Hurricane Tomas missed making a direct hit on Haiti, and Haiti escaped major loss of life during the 2010 hurricane season. This year, approximately 595,000 Haitians still live underneath tarps outdoors thanks to the earthquake, and these unfortunate people will be at risk of being swept away by flash flooding from Irene's torrential rains. However, Port-Au-Prince lies to the south of where Irene's main rains will fall, and I doubt the earthquake refugee camps will suffer from a major flooding disaster.


Figure 3. Hospital admissions (black bars) and death rate in percent (red line) for Haiti's cholera epidemic of 2010 - 2011. The cholera epidemic surged out of control after Hurricane Tomas dumped heavy rains on Haiti on November 4, 2010, with hospitalizations increasing by a factor of three for over a month. Over 3% of all people who contracted cholera died after Tomas' rains. However, sanitation and medical care improved in the following months, and the death rate fell by a factor of five to 0.7% by the summer of 2011. Another surge in cholera cases occurred in June 2011, doubling after heavy rainy season rains occurred. Cholera deaths doubled during the surge, but the death rate remained constant at 0.7%. Image credit: Pan American Health Organization.

Another danger is that Irene's rains will worsen the cholera epidemic that surfaced after the earthquake. Cholera is a water-borne disease, and spreads readily after heavy rains. As of August 12, 2011, the 2010 - 2011 cholera epidemic had infected 419,000 Haitians, killing 5,968. After Hurricane Tomas passed on November 5, 2010, cholera cases exploded, with hospital admissions more than tripling for over a month. Similarly, heavy rains in June 2011 during the country's usual rainy season caused doubled cholera cases and deaths for several weeks. We can expect that Irene's rains will cause at least a doubling of cholera cases for a month or more. This will lead to several hundred additional cholera deaths, given the disease's 0.7% mortality rate this summer in Haiti (during June and July 2011, 95,212 cases were reported, with 626 deaths.) An increase in cholera deaths due to Irene's rains is also a concern in the Dominican Republic, where cholera has sickened 14,000 people and killed 92 as of the end of July.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

See my 2010 post, Haiti's tragic hurricane history.

An exceptionally active of hurricane season
Hurricane season is only one-third over, and we've already had almost a full years' activity already. Tropical Storm Irene is the 9th named storm this year, and an average season has just 10 - 11 named storms. Irene's formation date of August 20 ties 2011 with 1936 as the 2nd earliest date for formation of the season's 9th storm. Only 2005 was more active this early. However, the first eight storms of the year have done far less damage than is typical. All eight storms stayed below hurricane strength, making 2011 the first hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851 to have more than six consecutive tropical storms that did not reach hurricane strength. As I discussed in Friday's post, a major reason for this is the lack of vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic so far this year. We've had a large amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and the usual amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara, both helping to keep the atmosphere stable and stop this year's storms from intensifying into hurricanes. Hurricane activity typically ramps up big-time by August 20, with more than 80% of all the hurricanes and 65% of all the tropical storms occurring after that date. At our current pace, 2011 will become the second busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 24 - 27 named storms. There are only 21 names in the list of names for a hurricane season, so we may have to break out the Greek alphabet again in late October this year, as occurred in 2005. Ironically, this was the last time the current set of names was used in the Atlantic, so 16 of this year's 21 names are repeats of 2005. I'm not too happy about seeing another hurricane season challenge the Hurricane Season of 2005 in any way, and let's hope we don't retire another five names this year, like occurred in 2005! With vertical instability much lower this year than in 2005, and that year having already seen one storm (Dennis) retired by this point in the season, I doubt that will happen, though.


Figure 4. The annual cycle of average hurricane frequency in the Atlantic. Historically, about 35% of all the tropical storms and 15% of all the hurricanes will have occurred by August 20.

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? Well, the best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). This model out-performed the official NHC forecast in 2010 for 1-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day forecasts, and in 2009 for 4-day and 5-day forecasts. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 5, over the past two years, the GFS and GFDL model have been the next best models, with the UKMET model not far behind. Last year, the NOGAPS model did very poorly, forcing NHC to come up with some new consensus models this year, the TCOA and TVCA, that do not include the NOGAPS model. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)


Figure 5. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms 2010. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models. Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2010 verification report.

Next post
There will be 2 - 3 posts per day in my blog this week during Irene, with Angela Fritz and Rob Carver doing some of the afternoon and evening posts.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico (lobdellJ)
Tropical Storm Irene hits the north coast of Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR (ronmil)
The first bands or Irene approaching Maunabo, Puerto Rico (SE corner)...
Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR
Irene (reefchild)
Irene @OPkB OceanParkBeach Puerto Rico 7pm
Irene

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Very nice Terra-MODIS capture of the scene:

Click for a much larger 250 meter resolution image.

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1536. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
19:45:00 PM UTC
19.6N 68.1W
Dvorak: T4.1
986.8 hPa
Weakening Flag: OFF
Rapid Weakening Flag: OFF

--
no weakening flag from this information..
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
what time does the cone possibly change again?..5pm of 8pm?


5pm. The cone only changes at 5AM, 11AM, 5PM, 11PM. It all comes in 6 hour intervals as those are the full advisory packages.
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
what time does the cone possibly change again?..5pm of 8pm?


5PM
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Quoting gregcowd:
I live in South Florida(West Palm Beach. I fly out for a business trip on Wednesday morning. Do I need to put up my shutters or should my house be safe from Irene?


Too early to make that call. Wait until Wed
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Quoting P451:



It's.... ALWAYS on lol. It's never been off throughout Irene's life.

Amazing really. Not sure what the purpose of it is anymore other than to maybe trick individuals who have not yet caught on to it's behavior.


Pointless.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Infrared minus Water Vapor (IR-WV) imagery shows some differences in cloud top temps between IR and WV imagery. Generally speaking, negative values support the idea of overshooting cloud tops. Having overshooting cloud tops in the CDO is a good sign Irene is strengthening her core.




Keep in mind this is an hour old image. Right now, cloud tops are even cooler.

And with that I'm audi5k. Later all
nice image
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 361
Quoting bythegraceofgod:


I am from Hattiesburg, just up from the Mississippi coast, and I still have not driven along Beach Boulevard. Those beautiful homes, cute little motels, shops, restaurants, etc. It literally looked like a bomb went off. According to the news Mississippi only lost a few tree limbs.


My mom was in that rehab/nursing center right across the street from the Hard Rock and we moved her about two weeks before. I remember going to see what happened to the nursing home and was never able to even locate where it had been. Lived in Mobile at the time and had a fair amount of damage ourselves...never understood why there was so little coverage of the truly devestated areas. Used to camp at Waveland and went last year...still devastated!
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
what time does the cone possibly change again?..5pm of 8pm?


5PM
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Really impossible to tell. There is no guide that says -x degrees corresponds to a certain height in the atmosphere. I mean roughly speaking you can look at a chart which will tell you how cold it is at a given height. However, that is assuming clear skies.

I'd guess these cloud tops are around 60 kft though.


Thanks! I was thinking in the tropics it would have to be pretty far up there.
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what time does the cone possibly change again?..5pm or 8pm?
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Hey Grandpa, models will be shifting all the time. You would want to listen to NHC, which got the path to Charleston. They also got NC in cone, so I would get ready to leave right now and wait one more day for any major change. If not, go to Greensville or Raleigh. Exactly where in Raleigh is your daughter? I'm in Garner/Clayton area.


This is awkward
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I live in South Florida(West Palm Beach. I fly out for a business trip on Wednesday morning. Do I need to put up my shutters or should my house be safe from Irene?
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Quoting P451:



It's.... ALWAYS on lol. It's never been off throughout Irene's life.

Amazing really. Not sure what the purpose of it is anymore other than to maybe trick individuals who have not yet caught on to it's behavior.


Agree. Dvorak estimates are to be taken with a grain of salt and relatively good knowledge of their behavior. Not only has the weakening flag been on for who knows how long now, for the last few hours it's said the pressure is 978mb or so...despite the HH's finding nothing lower than 983-985mb...
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Article from www.bloomberg.com on predictions for Irene

Link
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Quoting P451:



It's.... ALWAYS on lol. It's never been off throughout Irene's life.

Amazing really. Not sure what the purpose of it is anymore other than to maybe trick individuals who have not yet caught on to it's behavior.


True, I haven't looked at it through out Irene's life, which explains why I have not seen it.

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Quoting Grandpato4:


You are probably right. I'm going to stay put until maybe Wednesday and assess the situation then. I just hate to leave when they keep shifting the track east. I could see me heading to Raleigh and the storm out to sea.


Is this a joke or are you being serious as to your situation?
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Afternoon........I see the models shifted further East......The best thing has actually happened MAYBE. If Irene can really become a Monster, she just might miss the ConUS completely. A CAT 3 into South Carolina seems to be the Current Trend. Not to let ones guard down as we are still 3-4 days out. A lot of shifts left and right can still occur. We often see Models over shift and have to come back the other way. KEEP WATCHING!!!
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1516. Drakoen
I wonder if the parabolic shape and topography of Hispaniola is actually helping Irene, for the time being.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
Quoting Grandpato4:


You are probably right. I'm going to stay put until maybe Wednesday and assess the situation then. I just hate to leave when they keep shifting the track east. I could see me heading to Raleigh and the storm out to sea.
Hey Grandpa, models will be shifting all the time. You would want to listen to NHC, which got the path to Charleston. They also got NC in cone, so I would get ready to leave right now and wait one more day for any major change. If not, go to Greensville or Raleigh. Exactly where in Raleigh is your daughter? I'm in Garner/Clayton area.
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1514. MTWX
Quoting bythegraceofgod:


I am from Hattiesburg, just up from the Mississippi coast, and I still have not driven along Beach Boulevard. Those beautiful homes, cute little motels, shops, restaurants, etc. It literally looked like a bomb went off. According to the news Mississippi only lost a few tree limbs.

I live in Columbus, and go down to the coast a few times a year. Definitely different now! I do like the sculptures they made out of the oak trees that didn't make it along 90 though...
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Latest Dropsonde from Gonzo (23N 73W) shows dry air in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere




This is inline with the water vapor image (water vapor imagery depicts the upper third of the atmosphere) which is showing dry air aloft. Dropsonde location is circled in green.






As already mentioned, this is all a result of the trough over the east coast pushing winds toward Irene on the west side. This produces convergence aloft. When the air converges aloft, it sinks (subsides). As it sinks, it warms by compression and dries out the air level in the process.

Other than this, the rest of the upper level and oceanic environment are favorable for continued intensification. The only other issue is the organization and continued land interaction from Hispaniola (although the effects of this will not be nearly as significant as expected a few days ago). None of these are huge issues, however. So...Bahamas, SE US, mid Atlantic states, and NE states, start prepping now...


That convergence aloft was mentioned I believe yesterday by the NHC as well. That convergence aloft creates subsidence, e.g. high pressure. Could that be why the dropsonde in that area is indicating steering winds out of the E-ENE? And, what impact, if any, would that have on the track of Irene?
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Infrared minus Water Vapor (IR-WV) imagery shows some differences in cloud top temps between IR and WV imagery. Generally speaking, negative values support the idea of overshooting cloud tops. Having overshooting cloud tops in the CDO is a good sign Irene is strengthening her core.




Keep in mind this is an hour old image. Right now, cloud tops are even cooler.

And with that I'm audi5k. Later all
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@rchira:

Same thing happened for Jeanne. Everything showed it was gonna go out to sea, then next thing you know, it's taking a turn to Florida.
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Quoting petewxwatcher:
How tall is a -89 C cloud top?
Really impossible to tell. There is no guide that says -x degrees corresponds to a certain height in the atmosphere. I mean roughly speaking you can look at a chart which will tell you how cold it is at a given height. However, that is assuming clear skies and is pretty off when it comes to thunderstorms in the column of air.

I'd guess these cloud tops are around 60 kft though.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
CoC headed for DR at the moment.

I think that low lvl ridge up to the north is causing this short-term motion
GOOD
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it looks like it it may stay this too the WNW of r Hispaniola thats good news
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Quoting Grandpato4:


Thank you. I just hate to leave if we don't have to since my wife is sick. I am wondering if we would be fine in our home because we do have a dune and are set back from that a bit more.
I watched Floyd eat through a 40 foot high dune 100 feet back. This was on a 7 mile long island in Abaco which storm surge mostly went around. You will have a storm surge....

If your dune is bigger than that and your house is built 30' above sea level than sure.....What the heck....

If it is over cat 3 you have got to leave IMO.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 361
Dropsonde pattern


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1505. RMCF
Quoting robintampabay:


Grandpa, It is better for your wife to be sick at your daughters house than not so alive at your beach front house. You may have a dune protecting your house, but if that dune is not 20 feet or higher you can just consider it a spped bump. Storm surge for a Cat 3-5 hurricane can be from 12-26 feet. I am not trying to be an azz, just giving you my honest opinion! Good Luck

yeah just ask those people that stayed on bolivar after Ike oh wait when they called to be rescued 911 told them to write their SS# on there arm so they could be identified.
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1503. bappit
Quoting TomTaylor:

In that pic looks like Harvey may reincarnate in the Pacific.
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Gone now until later.
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Quoting ElConando:
Is it on GMT?


Quoting ElConando:


They leave at 5:30pm, or 17:30.


Umm they are almost in it right now....



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Is it on GMT?
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Quoting rchira1:
REMEMBER HURRICANE ANDREW? iT WAS COMING AT SOUTH FLORIDA BUT THE MODELS AND WEATHER PEOPLE SAID THAT IS WAS GOING TO LIFT OUT AND AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. tHEN THE NEXT MORNING WE ALL WOKE UP TO A DIFFERENT TUNE AND SOUTH FLORIDA ONLY HAD LESS THAN 24 HOURS TO PREPARE. tHEN ANDREW CAME TO SOUTH FLORIDA. tHE WEAKNESS NEVER HAPPENED OR IT CLOSED THE GAP WHICH IN RETURN MADE ANDREW CONTINUE ON THE PATH TO SOUTH FLORIDA. MY POINT IS THAT SOUTH FLORIDA IS NOT SAFE UNTIL WE SEE THAT NW TURN.


***VOICE YOUR THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS ON THIS.***
Same with Hugo. My mom said people in SC thought it was going to recurve out to sea or NC coast, but it never turned and got stronger at same time. Gulf Stream are like HGH to hurricanes...
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'm happy I'm not in that, anymore.


Good to see you! So how was it?
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Whoa!!!

first outrider squall hits here on Provo

I recorded a gust of 55 mph from NE

gonna be a long 48 hours I think


Much worse to come I am afraid. You will be on the dirty side of a deepening hurricane that could be cat 2 at its closest pass to you.
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1496. wpb
on the nhc track what watches or warning would be posted from central fla east coast
south to miami dade??
Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 573
Quoting zoomiami:


Hmm. Needs help, in harms way and sick wife. Seen this before

You arent the only one thinking that, might quick on the reply also...
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Quoting rchira1:
REMEMBER HURRICANE ANDREW? iT WAS COMING AT SOUTH FLORIDA BUT THE MODELS AND WEATHER PEOPLE SAID THAT IS WAS GOING TO LIFT OUT AND AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. tHEN THE NEXT MORNING WE ALL WOKE UP TO A DIFFERENT TUNE AND SOUTH FLORIDA ONLY HAD LESS THAN 24 HOURS TO PREPARE. tHEN ANDREW CAME TO SOUTH FLORIDA. tHE WEAKNESS NEVER HAPPENED OR IT CLOSED THE GAP WHICH IN RETURN MADE ANDREW CONTINUE ON THE PATH TO SOUTH FLORIDA. MY POINT IS THAT SOUTH FLORIDA IS NOT SAFE UNTIL WE SEE THAT NW TURN.


***VOICE YOUR THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS ON THIS.***


I remember that...the high built back in and we were all scrambling and in a complete panic. Lesson learned...be prepared and stay vigilant until it passes.
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1492. kwgirl
Quoting Grandpato4:


Thank you. I just hate to leave if we don't have to since my wife is sick. I am wondering if we would be fine in our home because we do have a dune and are set back from that a bit more.
If you have a sand dune between you and the ocean, you should leave. That dune will be washed away by any surge, then it will be in your living room. It can cut you off from any help. Please go inland.
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Quoting Carnoustie:


not sure if thats good or bad,we here in Surfside Beach dont need another Hugo type hurricane.



Here in Murrells Inlet... praying this stays away!!
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High Pressure is Strong as ever over Texas, have not seen any change in months here and it should remain strong rest of the week, high pressure is also building to the Northeast of the System and building West. Irene can only go west to northwest, then north and eventually northeast around the high pressure.
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2011 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 19:31:37 N Lon : 68:11:13 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 978.5mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.3 4.3

Center Temp : -73.9C Cloud Region Temp : -68.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 87km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 24.1 degrees

************************************************* ***

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1488. rchira1
REMEMBER HURRICANE ANDREW? iT WAS COMING AT SOUTH FLORIDA BUT THE MODELS AND WEATHER PEOPLE SAID THAT IS WAS GOING TO LIFT OUT AND AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. tHEN THE NEXT MORNING WE ALL WOKE UP TO A DIFFERENT TUNE AND SOUTH FLORIDA ONLY HAD LESS THAN 24 HOURS TO PREPARE. tHEN ANDREW CAME TO SOUTH FLORIDA. tHE WEAKNESS NEVER HAPPENED OR IT CLOSED THE GAP WHICH IN RETURN MADE ANDREW CONTINUE ON THE PATH TO SOUTH FLORIDA. MY POINT IS THAT SOUTH FLORIDA IS NOT SAFE UNTIL WE SEE THAT NW TURN.


***VOICE YOUR THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS ON THIS.***
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1487. Drakoen
Wish there was a site to see the GFS 500mb height contours in small intervals. But from what I can see, and using the GFS things are matching up...so far.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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