TD 24 slow to organize

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on October 16, 2005

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Tropical Depression 24 is slow to organize, in part due to some dry air on the northwest side that is inhibiting it. However, all the forecast guidance points to a very favorable environment for intensification starting Monday, and the dry air mixes out, shear decreases below 5 knots, and ocean temperatures beneath the storm remain near 29C.
All indications are that this will be Tropical Storm Wilma on Monday, and Hurricane Wilma by Wednesday. Intensificatiion into a major hurricane by late in the week is a distinct possibility.


Figure 1. Historical tracks of tropical depressions that have formed in the western Caribbean in October.

Steering currents are expected to remain weak the next two days, and the computer models are forecasting a slow movement to the west or west-southwest. After that, most of the models agree on a more northerly track towards Cuba as a trough of low pressure swinging across the U.S. exerts a pull on the system three days from now. A second trough of low pressure five days from now will create an additional pull, that should accelerate the storm quickly to the north or northeast. This is a typical track for October systems forming in the western Caribbean, as we can see from the historical track map shown in Figure 1. It is looking increasingly unlikely that this storm will get "stuck" in the Caribbean and drift southwest towards Honduras like Category 5 Hurricane Mitch did in October 1998.
Western Cuba, Mexico's Yucatan, and the west coast of Florida and Florida Keys are at greatest risk. It currently appears that Gulf Coast residents of Louisiana and Texas have little chance of being hit by this storm.

Elsewhere in the tropics, nothing else is happening. I'll be back with a update this evening around 9 pm.

Jeff Masters



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326. sherrb
8:58 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
There was a hurricane that hit the Brownsville and south texas area in 1968 or 1969 that formed in Mid-October.What makes the track of Wilma so different? We're having a heat wave here in Oklahoma and Texas.
325. FLPanhandle
2:28 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
Dr M has new post.
323. gshome
1:42 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
AccuWeather shows cat. 2 next Sunday. Landfall near west coast of Florida, possibly Tampa? - http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/storms.asp?ocean=atlantic&storm=24&imagetype=move
Member Since: January 13, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 3
322. caneman
1:30 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
WTNT34 KNHC 162357
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...DEPRESSION MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND NOT YET ANY STRONGER...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 150 MILES... 245 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...
4 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF IT DOES SO... IT WILL TIE THE RECORD OF 21
NAMED STORMS SET IN 1933.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
NOAA BUOY 42057... LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES WEST OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER... RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1004 MB.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
321. palmettobug53
1:29 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
Was here for Hazel, but don't remember anything. Too little. Certainly don't want a refresher course with Wilma. lol
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 235 Comments: 25156
320. FLGLFCST
1:27 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
Gah, I stop paying attention for one week and this is what happens.
319. CrazyC83
1:22 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
One thing to note based on my thought of going eastward: the strongest hurricane to strike the East Coast north of Florida since 1900 (Hurricane Hazel, 1954) was in mid-October as well...
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
318. CrazyC83
1:17 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
That is what I have been thinking. Slow to build (48 hours or so), but once it reaches hurricane strength, it should jump through the Saffir-Simpson categories very quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if Wilma went from a Category 1 to a Category 4 and dropped over 50mb in pressure within 36 hours...
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
316. matilda101
12:52 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
In reguarding the pressure of 1001. I think it just shows you how much potential this storm will have, once it gets it act together. Perhaps it will strengthen quickly into a hurricane. Once when the center convection consolidates.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 301
315. leftyy420
12:44 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
md it was first tammy than td 22 that helped to spawn a stroong non tropical and complex low that pounded the ne all week
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
314. MDCarolina
12:43 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
It's hard to keep track of all these storms this year. Is all the rain that's been pounding the NE residual from Tammy or was that TD 22?
312. matilda101
12:13 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
cute
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 301
311. subtropic
12:11 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
Just read it palmetto. Thank you very much for posting that.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
309. subtropic
12:01 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
Thanks palmetto.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
308. palmettobug53
12:00 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
Ok, Subtropic, you asked for it; you got it! :-)
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 235 Comments: 25156
307. aquak9
12:00 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
I imagine there'll be complaints....but Thanks! for the sense of humor, StSimons!!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 168 Comments: 26075
306. palmettobug53
11:58 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
BWAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

When do we get to see the trailer?
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 235 Comments: 25156
304. subtropic
11:48 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
palmetto,
Sure. Lay it on me!
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
303. palmettobug53
11:47 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Subtropic, it'll be copy and paste. Too long to type over. Sure you want it all?
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 235 Comments: 25156
302. cirrocumulus
11:45 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
204 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNDERNEATH LARGE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON. GREAT WEATHER WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS
DEEP TROUGH ON EAST COAST AND CUT OFF LOW ON WEST COAST MAINTAIN
BASIC POSITION WITH OUR AREA UNDER THE RIDGE IN BETWEEN. AMPLITUDE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FLATTENS OUT LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST CUTOFF EJECTS EASTWARD INTO PLAINS WHILE FILLING
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING SHALLOW RETURN FLOW OFF GULF.
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT LOOKING TOO ENCOURAGING
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN MUCH WEAKER TROUGH LIFTING OUT. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT OVER TEXAS...NEW TROUGH ON WEST COAST AND FORECAST TROPICAL
CYCLONE SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST GULF WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OUR FAIR
SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND. OTHER THAN NOT
BUYING LOW POPS END OF WEEK...GFS GUIDANCE REASONABLE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
301. subtropic
11:44 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Thanks Palmetto, I'll do it. If you feel like typing (or copying and pasting), I would be glad to have it in my blog as well. If you'd rather not go to the trouble, that's cool too. I can read it where it is.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
299. palmettobug53
11:38 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Subtropic, I checked your blog. You said you were interested in personal storm experiences. LakeWorthFinn had deduced where I lived, and asked me about Hugo. I posted a reply on her blog. Check it out, if you're interested.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 235 Comments: 25156
298. Trouper415
11:37 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Why would you let trolls keep you from what you've been doing? I've been reading these boards pretty consistently now for the past couple months and find the majority of the time they arent a problem. I see no reason to take sides when all we are really trying to do is help each other gather information on where these storms are heading, which is us.

Come on back Lefty, you're needed.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
297. subtropic
11:36 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
That was just my opaque sense of humor (inferring that this blog is a physical space). I wouldn't want anybody to think I was saying anything negative about them.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
296. leftyy420
11:35 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
all are welcome on my blog and i incourage people to post in both of the blogs and not mine only. just letting u know where i will be for now on because of the trolls

lefty's blog
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
295. subtropic
11:34 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Oh well. Just gives us a little more elbow room ;-)
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
294. palmettobug53
11:32 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Think Miami, Torn, St.Simons all flipped over to Lefty's log.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 235 Comments: 25156
293. subtropic
11:30 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Nice link stsimons. Thanks!
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
292. seflagamma
11:28 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Thanks for the track of Gladys, that was long before I was in Florida and knew anything about Hurricanes. (WAs still in HS in NE Ark then and more interested in who my date would be for HomeComing at that time!)
It is funny now looking at all of these Oct storms of the past how many take similar paths.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40917
291. palmettobug53
11:25 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Don't think I've ever seen that shot of Gladys.
Thanks, St.Simons.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 235 Comments: 25156
289. leftyy420
11:18 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
i am no longer posting in this blog. any questions or info will be answered in my blog. thanks you

lefty's blog
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
288. seflagamma
11:18 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
I am beginning to think Wilma (I know it is not named yet but I like to personalize these things) will stay out there just wobbling around going nowhere for several days. Not even looking good at this point; but I sure don't count her out. She is just waiting for the right time and then will probably do something that will put egg on all of our faces!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40917
287. CrazyC83
11:17 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
I'm still thinking this is going to turn sooner and move north-northeast across western Cuba and pick up over the Bahamas and head for the US East Coast...similar to the 1893 storm shown on that graphic...
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
286. subtropic
11:15 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Nash, rather than type all that here, let me give you a link to the 5pm discussion from the NHC. You might as well get it from the horse's mouth. The first paragraph usually discusses current organization/intensity. Second paragraph deals with forecast track reasoning and last paragraph is intensity reasoning. They don't always do it like that, but the vast majority of discussions, that is where you will find the various information. Here is the Link
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
285. turtlehurricane
11:14 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
lol, dont even look at the models now. thier just gonna go back and forth. this storm will get picked up by a shortwave and turn north then north east. where it happens is what counts and this leaves a large cone of error.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
284. palmettobug53
11:14 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Miami, Subtropic, great comments. This is early days yet and TD24 isn't even Wilma yet, the last I looked. So this is the time to double check your preparedness, not to be deciding who's gonna get it or not. A lot of those October storms brush my way, too, not just FL. I don't plan to go into my "Modified Stationary Panic" mode for days, yet. :-)
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 235 Comments: 25156
283. seflagamma
11:13 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
miamihurricane12. thanks for the links. i've looked at them before, remember most of them.
i posted something about my experiences with Gordon previously (few days ago).
Gordon was a hoot. Major proof what can happen. Gordon went one way, then another, everytime we thought we knew where it was going, it would turn again. Going West;no East; no West again, etc. Then it did the bit Loop.
One thing for sure, the "original" track is almost always wrong because storm just forms and too much we don't know that will affect it.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40917
282. nash28
11:09 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
That's the hardest part Subtropic. I live in the south Tampa area and it seems as though the models have gone from a Mexico landfall to south florida to tampa area and now far west of tampa. It's enough to drive you mad. Is the general thinking that the high is not going to weaken as much as they thought yesterday?? What about the trough coming from California? Is that the trough that is expected to pick this up and swing it hard right towards the West coast of Florida? I'm still learning here, so any input is much appreciated.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
281. cirrocumulus
11:06 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Lefty: Any updates? WillJax: Good map on October paths!
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
280. caneman
11:05 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Looks like dry air may have the best of this storm. If it wants to survive, it needs to mix that drier air out fairly soon or there will be nothing left.

Go dry air....go!
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
279. miamihurricane12
11:02 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Historically speaking
Irene
Link

lili
Link

michelle
Link

gordon (where anything can happen)
Link

all i am trying to say is that anything can happen from it missing us entirely or it hitting us
278. FLPanhandle
11:01 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
The 1800Z GFS shows it brushing the North coast of the Yucatan and making a hard 90 degree right turn towards Tampa. No place can be discounted yet especially not the West coast of FL

I wish the font was the same between the pre-post and post-post. I never catch my mistakes until I have posted them.
277. TropicalExpert
11:01 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
Looks like dry air may have the best of this storm. If it wants to survive, it needs to mix that drier air out fairly soon or there will be nothing left.
276. subtropic
10:59 PM GMT on October 16, 2005
nash, I agree with you. Way too early to rely on the models this far out. In time they will either stand their ground and verify (or fail), or they will shift all over the place. Time will tell and fortunately, we have plenty of that.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.