Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2011

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Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.


Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.

Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.


Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.

Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.

Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico

Jeff Masters

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Quoting overwash12:
I made it up after seeing all the newscasters on the outerbanks reporting on overwash on hwy 12. Thanks!


Hahahaha very interesting! I love it!
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Quoting naplesdreamer28:


What does this mean in terms of track, if anything?


That is the first shortwave, but that one will lift out. The next one is over Iowa.
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Quoting aussiecold:


but you just "suggested" ..." shut the door and go to any hotel out of town "!!!

What is it you are having a problem with? Why would anyone want to sit in their home with no electricity in the dark in 90 degree heat with a hurricane passing over head. Go to a motel where you can relax, be safe and watch from the sidelines. Get my point?
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yea Chucktown...cough it up...
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Quoting RickWPB:
Looks like the trough is digging down pretty far south from this water vapor sat loop:

Link


What does this mean in terms of track, if anything?
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7568. Buhdog
Stormchaser....excellent illustration on Jeanne and potential track changes when dealing with a a moving front! I wonder how big irene will get once she establishes a southern half?

Most crystal blue morning we have had in SWFL in a long time today.
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Chucktown - thoughts on this for those of us in Chucktown?
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7566. RickWPB
Looks like the trough is digging down pretty far south from this water vapor sat loop:

Link
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Quoting fldude99:
In the words of the NYC cop at the sene: move along folks...nothing to see here. Irene is appeared destined to disturb some fish
I wouldn't classify as a fish as it just made landfall in PR... There are people in PR right?

Are you that certain it will completely avoid land? Most of the models suggest some form an impact on the East Coast.
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Quoting yesterway:


That is one unique name. "Overwash"...I like it.
I made it up after seeing all the newscasters on the outerbanks reporting on overwash on hwy 12. Thanks!
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Can someone explain to me why on all the computer models the GFDL and UKMET seems to stay so far West compared to the others? I saw this mornings GFDL and it just loves that Westerly track.
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She could be contracting her TS wind field a bit, explaining the slight rise in pressure. Radar also suggests she's trying to reconsolidate the eye wall.
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7561. ncstorm
anxiously awaiting Dr. Masters discussion..always interesting to hear his point of view on the storms
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15999
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In the words of the NYC cop at the sene: move along folks...nothing to see here. Irene is appeared destined to disturb some fish
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7558. MahFL
Quoting MahFL:


Right now, roughly 60 miles to the sw side. The info is in the forcast advisory. In 3 days time forcast to be 75 miles.


Now its changed to 3 days time 140 miles on the NW side.
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Quoting yesterway:


Can you give us the long version next time?
That IS the long version.
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Quoting yesterway:


The point here is not insurance it's how to deal with a dangerous storm coming to town.


but you just "suggested" ..." shut the door and go to any hotel out of town "!!!
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000
WTNT54 KNHC 221159
TCEAT4

HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
IRENE WAS ESTIMATED BY FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR TO BE
NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST...OR ABOUT
75 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...18.9N 67.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Quoting interstatelover7165:
000
FONT14 KNHC 220859
PWSAT4

HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0900 UTC MON AUG 22 2011

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 3 4 4 7 12
TROP DEPRESSION 4 1 7 4 5 8 3
TROPICAL STORM 32 44 47 41 37 35 32
HURRICANE 64 55 43 51 53 50 53
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 59 46 35 36 36 32 32
HUR CAT 2 4 7 6 10 13 12 15
HUR CAT 3 1 2 2 4 4 5 6
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 1 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 70KT 70KT 75KT 80KT 85KT 95KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)

RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)

AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 30(39)
MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 30(38)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 25(45)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 21(44)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 17(48)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 17(48)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) 12(52)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 37(47) 8(55)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 34(46) 5(51)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 2(19)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 3(30)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 3(22)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 6(32)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 9(32)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 11(27)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 18(31)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12)

MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)

PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

STENNIS SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 37(57) 5(62)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 3(26)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) 20(68) X(68)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 14(32) X(32)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 50(56) 12(68) X(68)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 10(32) X(32)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11)

GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 49(70) 3(73) X(73)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 2(36) X(36)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11)

SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 33(55) 1(56) X(56)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

MAYAGUANA 34 X 6( 6) 27(33) 29(62) 5(67) 1(68) X(68)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

GRAND TURK 34 3 33(36) 29(65) 3(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69)
GRAND TURK 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10)

ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)

CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14)

CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 3(26) X(26)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 20(31) 7(38) X(38) X(38)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

LES CAYES 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 8(10) 12(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

CAPE BEATA 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)

PUERTO PLATA 34 4 83(87) 4(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92)
PUERTO PLATA 50 1 39(40) 9(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 23 40(63) 1(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
SANTO DOMINGO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

PONCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PONCE 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

SAN JUAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAN JUAN 50 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)

SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

SAINT CROIX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



Can you give us the long version next time?
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7553. JonClaw
Looking at the 9AM 5-day track, it looks as though Irene would have to make a jump southwest to pass through the NHC's next forecast point.
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Quoting Chucktown:
Further east x 2

Link

Link


Just the man I want to see!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7551. Skyepony (Mod)
Comparing model error for Irene so far.. CMC I'd say is leading, HWRF, GFDL, TVCN & European follow..

Average Position Error (in nautical miles)

Model Name 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr
AEMN 40.0 94.1 104.7 113.3 60.4
AVNO 39.4 114.0 99.0 106.3 79.0
BAMD - 113.9 185.5 236.2 234.3
BAMM - 106.4 144.9 106.4 148.6
BAMS - 109.2 128.6 76.2 212.8
CMC 40.7 39.8 - - -
EGRR 25.8 86.7 - - -
GFDL 15.8 80.8 - - -
GFDN 8.3 105.7 - - -
HWRF 10.2 76.1 134.5 162.5 -
LBAR 0 108.8 176.6 227.7 346.9
LGEM 0 104.6 136.3 106.4 148.6
NAM 20.4 149.1 - - -
NGPS 50.3 86.9 80.2 90.2 -
OFCL 0 77.9 - - -
TVCN 0 67.3 77.1 104.6 -
XTRP 0 134.6 267.1 435.2 637.7
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Hurricane IRENE US Watch/ Warning

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

US Watch/Warning UPDATE Position Estimate

000
WTNT84 KNHC 221307
TCVAT4

IRENE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
900 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

.HURRICANE IRENE

PRZ001-002-003-004-005-006-007-008-009-010-011-01 2-013-221500-
/O.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1009.110822T1300Z-000000T0000Z/
900 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

PUERTO-RICO 18.22N 66.44W
VIEQUES 18.12N 65.43W
CULEBRA 18.32N 65.28W

$$

VIZ001-002-221500-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
900 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

ST-THOMAS-AND-ST-JOHN 18.33N 64.85W
ST-CROIX 17.74N 64.73W

$$

ATTN...WFO...SJU...
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Quoting overwash12:
Too late now! These insurance companies are savvvy!LOL


That is one unique name. "Overwash"...I like it.
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To all my friends in the Northeast, the Northeast Forecast.

Now is the time to get prepared with good weather expected this week!

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I have to say the last few satellite frames the motion looks much further to the W again, as opposed to the more NW movement overnight.
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000
FONT14 KNHC 220859
PWSAT4

HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0900 UTC MON AUG 22 2011

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 3 4 4 7 12
TROP DEPRESSION 4 1 7 4 5 8 3
TROPICAL STORM 32 44 47 41 37 35 32
HURRICANE 64 55 43 51 53 50 53
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 59 46 35 36 36 32 32
HUR CAT 2 4 7 6 10 13 12 15
HUR CAT 3 1 2 2 4 4 5 6
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 1 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 70KT 70KT 75KT 80KT 85KT 95KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)

RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)

AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 30(39)
MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 30(38)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 25(45)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 21(44)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 17(48)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 17(48)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) 12(52)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 37(47) 8(55)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 34(46) 5(51)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 2(19)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 3(30)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 3(22)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 6(32)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 9(32)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 11(27)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 18(31)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12)

MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)

PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

STENNIS SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 37(57) 5(62)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 3(26)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) 20(68) X(68)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 14(32) X(32)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 50(56) 12(68) X(68)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 10(32) X(32)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11)

GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 49(70) 3(73) X(73)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 2(36) X(36)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11)

SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 33(55) 1(56) X(56)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

MAYAGUANA 34 X 6( 6) 27(33) 29(62) 5(67) 1(68) X(68)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

GRAND TURK 34 3 33(36) 29(65) 3(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69)
GRAND TURK 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10)

ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)

CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14)

CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 3(26) X(26)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 20(31) 7(38) X(38) X(38)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

LES CAYES 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 8(10) 12(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

CAPE BEATA 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)

PUERTO PLATA 34 4 83(87) 4(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92)
PUERTO PLATA 50 1 39(40) 9(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 23 40(63) 1(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
SANTO DOMINGO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

PONCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PONCE 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

SAN JUAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAN JUAN 50 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)

SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

SAINT CROIX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


I hope so..

Go to WECT.com and look what pops up on their front page. Read it, and you'll see that the media is beginning to pay attention. I would also suggest looking at WWAY's tropical weather update on their Hurricanes 101 page. WRAL is also mentioning the storm. Elizabeth Gardner is quoted in the main story, she is a great meteorologist.
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Further east x 2

Link

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


000
WTNT24 KNHC 220906
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0900 UTC MON AUG 22 2011

ADDED 64-KT WIND RADII AT INITIAL TIME

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI
FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* ALL OF HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 66.4W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT.......130NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 66.4W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 65.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.9N 68.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 45SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.7N 70.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 45SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.4N 72.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 45SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.3N 74.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 45SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.0N 77.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 75SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 30.9N 81.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 66.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Jeanne's track



I remember Jeanne. I didn't have power for several days. Wait... maybe that was Charley, or Frances? Heck, it was bad year.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Jobos Beach, Isabela, Puerto Rico.


Looking a bit hostile.


Just wait until "El rabo de la tormenta", the tail with offshore winds, prepares Jobos for Epic surfing days...
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Current SST map or TCHP?
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7538. hulakai
the NW atlantic loop suggests a more easterly solution. not good for the folks in the bahamas. The next model run will probably nudge more east.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-avn .html
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 221302
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
900 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE HEADING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 67.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ENE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA HAS BEEN
REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* ALL OF HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE IS MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO AND AT
900 AM AST...1300 UTC...THE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
150 MILES...240 KM...MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY. THE
HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS
WELL AS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nash28:


Again....Don't expect any major shifts from the NHC. The models haven't made any major shifts in either direction. Not to mention the fact that the COC is not too far off the forecast points.


Yes....I meant only a SLIGHT shift due to current position.
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Quoting presslord:
all tenants should have insurance
Too late now! These insurance companies are savvvy!LOL
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at this point in the evolution of a hurricane you can see wobbling, displacement and reappearance of the eyewall from time to time because the lower level low is aligning and stregthening with the mid and upper level lows.

I see a straight shot down the gulf stream at turks then into miami. no steering winds, no wind shear, no troughs to pull it, so it's gonna follow the trail of lava hot water because this is mother nature's way of cooling off the GOM.....

from now on out it is in nitrus-like fuel water. expect major development very rapidly. i dont even know if it will make eyewall landfall in d.r......
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Jobos Beach, Isabela, Puerto Rico.


Looking a bit hostile.
rincon should be alittle calmer aussie
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http://www.wect.com/story/15305962/irene-its-all-ab out-location This was posted by WECT here in Wilmington,NC this morning. WWAY has a similar story on their website. Our local news media is beginning to pay attention to this storm.
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Quoting ackee:
where IRENE centre is in the mona passage OR north of PR

North
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15961
7530. hotrods
Looks like the NHC and its counter parts--UKMET an GFDL are sticking to there guns at this point!
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Quoting Michale:
I remember in '99, Floyd followed the FL East Coast track, but then veered further eastward around the Space Coast...

Irene could do the same, no?

got fuel?
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


My bad, just misread the chart. Good find. I meant she would need to head at 280 degrees to graze Hispanolia, I think she's moving closer to 300 if anything, but the NHC has her at 295 which would still keep her well away from Hispanolia. My aplogizes for the goof.


No problem, just made me wonder lol. I'm inclined to agree with you.
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Quoting connie1976:


I already look at all of that stuff.... I just like reading everyones opinions... ...and there are some people who post here that know what they are talking about....BUT i always listen to what the nhc has to say...


How do you know they know what they are talking about?
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Jobos Beach, Isabela, Puerto Rico.


Looking a bit hostile. 25miles ESE of the eye.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15961
7525. Ryuujin
I called it heading N of Hispanola, so let's see if the trough isn't as strong as forecast and we have to deal with Irene headed more westward. Ugh. This almost looks like a certain CONUS hit.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
the models remained in fairly good agreement throughout the duration of the storm while wildly flopping back and forth.


Jeanne's track

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all tenants should have insurance
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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