Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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check your wundermail
Cone is only updated at 11 and 5
yeah..thats a monster..and thats the lowest pressure I think the ECWMF has produced since developing this storm..
Pretty obvious on Viz:
thanks this did
Hey TA13, do you think this is a genuine eye (i.e. sign of intensification) or dry air appearing at the center? I'd say a bit of both.
Keep that up and we r up and over PR by tomorrow... sheesh...
i think i just threw up a little...GULP
When it jumps to the last frame, it moved slightly N of due West.
False eye going away.
Honestly.
Your right, probably a bit of both (especially with some tiny clear spots in and around the center).
But I believe that this is a very weak eye.
Super cool animation! Does that mean the low-level center continues to go WNW and has just aligned with the mid-level center?...or does that mean that the eye position is showing that it the low-level center been going due west for a while?
Because the low-level center travel means EVERYTHING right now...WNW means a graze by Hispaniola and a larger threat to east US coast...west means more direct strike to Hispaniola...weaker storm...and more southerly and westward track....
It looks like its not completely stacked vertically.(yet)
See the little spin to the SE of the eye like feature.
Irene is vertically stacked in a very low shear environment, even a "weak" eye will show.
Another thing to confirm this is the recon data. There is a sigificant temperature increase inside the eye versus outside. It is this temperature increase from sinking air in the eye that clears out the eye in storms.
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,530m (5,020ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)
Which is why i don't see any movement of Irene to the N or NW until it gets past DR... unfortunately.
Are you in Nassau?
Little bit of Hispaniola
FULL IMAGE
I guess we have about 3 or 4 eyes in this new rapid scan frame:
here that guys someone who lives in the carolinsa and isnt a wishacaster i agree with ya
Any thoughts on why these models have moved, if they will slide back east (to florida), and IF it stays over open water coming my way... how strong can this thing get?
Yeah, the Fishcasters are on break today but will probably show up tomorrow when models change again LoL!
It is stacked, recon confirmed this.
;-)
Thank you, was justing getting ready to ask the same....I'm lost ;)
Tampa Fl here
Nearly a 100bar. Even Jupiter doesn't create that much pressure on its surface.
The Great Red Spot would be jealous of such an estimate.
There she blows ... with Puerto Rico in her sights?
Thank you
LOL
18z models
Little bit of Hispaniola
FULL IMAGE
It never fails.
The airports will be flowing with outbounders trying to leave.
6am ENE 33mph ESE 15.1 ft @ 11 sec
9am ENE 39mph ESE 18.4 ft @ 12 sec
12pm E 43mph ESE 24.3 ft @ 13 sec
3pm E 44mph ESE 27.2 ft @ 13 sec
6pm ESE 43mph ESE 27.9 ft @ 13 sec
Viewing: 1601 - 1651
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