Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2011

Share this Blog
48
+

Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.


Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.

Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.


Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.

Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.

Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 6623 - 6573

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 | 113 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 120 | 121 | 122 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 126 | 127 | 128 | 129 | 130 | 131 | 132 | 133 | 134 | 135 | 136 | 137 | 138 | 139 | 140 | 141 | 142 | 143 | 144 | 145 | 146 | 147 | 148 | 149 | 150 | 151 | 152 | 153 | 154 | 155 | 156 | 157 | 158 | 159 | 160Blog Index

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
why is it naturally disastrous if the circ is completely over land? we want it over land to dissapate, before it kills people and destroys property!!


First of all, if the circulation is strong enough, it WOULD be completely disastrous if it were completely over populated land. But that aside, what I meant was disastrous in the context of maintaining a circulation, as I was in physics discussion mode. A poor choice of words, I'll admit.

And thanks to all (particulary dawnawakening) that have been so helpful in providing detailed information regarding land interaction, particularly in the context of what Irene is doing this very moment. Keep it up!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCSCguy:
Tell that to Hugo



Hugo came in at a different angle once it hit PR it moved nnw then nw right into Charleston. Storms that come from the south due north always hook and miss us plus on the west side of the circulation we get nothing from it cept maybe floyd and that is cuz the wind field was so big. Bertha passed within 100 miles of Charleston and it was sunny at times that day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Gearsts:
Just a dry spot


Is there a way to tell the difference? In the end of that loop it looks really round shaped as well
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmosweather:


Just dry air from the effects of crossing land. Her center is 10 miles SE of the San Juan radar site.


latest radar imagery suggests otherwise, that the surface center is reforming to the northwest. And that this is not just a dry spot. Convection on her eastern side is suggesting that her COC is where that clear spot is currently. Radar shows banding beginning to take shape where this old center used to be.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's getting calmer in s. Cauguas
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting thedawnawakening3:


I actually think that could be our center reforming, or our mid level circulation present and just waiting for the surface center to reunite with it over the next few hours, because the whole convective cloud pattern on IR suggests this is the potential center.


Just dry air from the effects of crossing land. Her center is 10 miles SE of the San Juan radar site.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I believe radar and iR imagery are beginning to suggest a reformation of the surface center to where the MLC is currently, which is north of San Juan, PR and where the eye like feature is showing up on IR. Radar imagery of her ex surface circulation is beginning to weaken and fill in.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting charlottefl:


Storms can often move erratically while over land especially mountainous land, you should get a truer motion once it exits back over the ocean...
Exactly, we are seeing the force of friction on a spinning top, essentially. Irene is climbing a hill, of sorts, due to the friction.

We've seen this sort of thing before.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
6615. Relix
Calm is being reported in BAYAMON, CUPEY AND GUAYNABO, while windshift has been noted in Gurabo, Rio Grande and Maunabo. Which means the center should be over the main metro area of PR. TOA BAJA, a few miles west of that area, is sightly calmer as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
6614. LargoFl
Quoting crAAzyCane:


Thanks! Then I guess that means her center will be back out over the water in another hour or two.
GFDL still has Irene over or very near Tampa at 120 hours, dont let your guard down folks,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
6613. Dunkman
Yeah on it's current heading it looks to be at least halfway across, so unless it turns west 2 more hours over land seems about right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting thedawnawakening3:
She hasn't stalled and the movement of her MLC will not allow her to stall.


Thanks! Then I guess that means her center will be back out over the water in another hour or two.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
6611. Gearsts
Quoting thedawnawakening3:


I actually think that could be our center reforming, or our mid level circulation present and just waiting for the surface center to reunite with it over the next few hours, because the whole convective cloud pattern on IR suggests this is the potential center.
Just a dry spot
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxlo op .cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

Someone look at this graphic. At the end of the loop is that just dry air getting inside? Or an eye.


I actually think that could be our center reforming, or our mid level circulation present and just waiting for the surface center to reunite with it over the next few hours, because the whole convective cloud pattern on IR suggests this is the potential center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I agree Irene should be in the Atlantic by the hour, but her whole circulation should be by 6am.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop .cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

Someone look at this graphic. At the end of the loop is that just dry air getting inside? Or an eye.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So people can stop asking about radar... both the GIF and the link.

Link
Looks like the center is about to come off (then it's bedtime for me)... looks to be elongating slightly SW-NE?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
6606. Dunkman
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Did our TWDR just go down??


I have an image from 07:13 UTC, so probably not (yet).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Euro is gone bonkers...926mb. Looks like a Cape Hatteras scrape on this run.

lolololololol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting QPhysFTW:
Man, tough to focus on math, since another question just popped in my head! As it was when I first posted here, it's a question about momentum flow in these storms.

It may be silly -- obviously, we're not dealing with a rigid body here -- but could a moderately tall island like PR, through frictional effects and rerouting airflow, briefly exert a torque by effectively dissipating the angular momentum on the south side of the storm? If so, that might lead to the wobbles that I hear about on here so frequently.

But then I again, I could be totally wrong. That's why I'm asking!


Storms can often move erratically while over land especially mountainous land, you should get a truer motion once it exits back over the ocean...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TS.Irene's_6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 21August_6amGMT and ending 22August_6amGMT

The 4 short line-segments represent TropicalStormIrene's path
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Irene's travel-speed was 10.5mph(16.9k/h) on a heading of 289.4degrees(WNW)
TS.Irene was headed toward passage over LasGalleras,DominicanRepublic ~20&1/2 hours from now

Copy&paste pic, 16.0n60.4w-16.8n62.4w, 16.8n62.4w-17.5n63.7w, 17.5n63.7w-17.9n65.0w, 17.9n65.0w-18.2n65.9w, huc, 17.9n65.0w-19.26n69.20w, eps into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 22August_12amGMT)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Relix:
Huge explosion in Bayamon. Knocked my power out for a few seconds. An amazing blue flash twice.


Transformers. Stay safe!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting QPhysFTW:


Wow, what a quick response to what I assume is my question -- if I understand correctly, you're saying that for larger, more rugged land masses, a few miles either on or off the coast can make a huge difference, which I suppose makes sense. Thanks. A corollary question, then. If a storm is skirting the coast (as Irene might be doing now), could mountains that lay onshore induce upward motion and actually mitigate the fact that the circulation is partially over land?

Naturally, it'd be disastrous if the circulation was actually moving completely over land. But the question appears to be relevant right now. Plus, it's interesting physics.
why is it naturally disastrous if the circ is completely over land? we want it over land to dissapate, before it kills people and destroys property!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
6600. Relix
Huge explosion in Bayamon. Knocked my power out for a few seconds. An amazing blue flash twice.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
6599. NCSCguy
Quoting WCSCTVCharleston:



Again they will continue to shift east NC or out to sea is how this will end up it always does. History doesn't lie computer models do.
Tell that to Hugo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Did our TWDR just go down??
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
Looks like she should exit PR within the hour.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THE FAA SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR (TJUA) HAS GONE
DOWN...MOSTLY LIKELY DUE TO A LOSS OF POWER AT THE CAYEY RADAR
SITE...AS RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IRENE MOVED
ACROSS THAT AREA. WE ARE UNABLE TO RESTART THE RADAR AT THIS TIME
AND FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED. RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

BCS


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
There's your center...



stay over land irene
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:


Can someone please post a link of the radar they are watching. Thanks


It is the San Juan TDWR high definition radar.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmosweather:
SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND
IRENE COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE WHILE OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


Not sure I agree with that lol.

Cloudtops have significantly lowered (see satellite) over the past few hours, and the eye has filled in on radar. Not sure what this forecaster was thinking? Yes, it could become a hurricane this morning... AFTER coming off PR, not over it! Definitely not by 5am and probably not by 8.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
agree see if you see the eye just n of pr she might be hurricane in the next hour if not already one now tia Link


That's not an eye, its just a dry slot in the N-ern part of the circulation from the effects of crossing Puerto Rico. The center can be seen on radar imagery approaching the radar site in San Juan about 15 miles to the SE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lol


SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND
IRENE COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE WHILE OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
I don't think you are seeing an eye, probably just the decoupled surface and mid level centers showing themselves, I think we are just seeing the MLC present. Convection developing on the eastern side of the storm, suggesting that she is maintaining intensity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
6589. Relix
Quoting yonzabam:


Which means the COC could be offshore to the north.


The wind has been like that since the event started
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Atlantic Tropical Storm IRENE Intermediate Advisory Number 6B
08/22/2011 02:57 AM EDT


000
WTNT34 KNHC 220657
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
300 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 66.1W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF AGUADILLA PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED BY FAA DOPPLER RADAR TO BE INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH... 24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF
IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...AND
MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL REGIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND
IRENE COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE WHILE OVER PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTER THE
CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 76 MPH...122 KM/H...WAS REPORTED
ON VIEQUES ISLAND PUERTO RICO...AND A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH...67
KM/H WITH A GUST TO 59 MPH...94 KM/H...WAS REPORTED AT SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND
CULEBRA THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BERG





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
agree see if you see the eye just n of pr she might be hurricane in the next hour if not already one now tia Link


might be a bit of dry air sucked in making it look that way-IDK?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
6586. 7544
agree see if you see the eye just n of pr she might be hurricane in the next hour if not already one now tia Link
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6676
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Interesting to compare Irene to Emily(top,) at about the same stage of development.

Despite her interaction with Puerto Rico, Irene's CDO is expanding almost exponentially.

Compared to Emily, you can see that she's filling in much faster and is more robust.





Awesome graphics!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SCwannabe:


Their are always exceptions...Hugo


Frances 2004.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WCSCTVCharleston:



Again they will continue to shift east NC or out to sea is how this will end up it always does. History doesn't lie computer models do.


Their are always exceptions...Hugo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND
IRENE COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE WHILE OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


Not sure I agree with that lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
6581. sarepa
000
WTNT34 KNHC 220657
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
300 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 66.1W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF AGUADILLA PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED BY FAA DOPPLER RADAR TO BE INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH... 24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF
IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...AND
MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL REGIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND
IRENE COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE WHILE OVER PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTER THE
CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 76 MPH...122 KM/H...WAS REPORTED
ON VIEQUES ISLAND PUERTO RICO...AND A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH...67
KM/H WITH A GUST TO 59 MPH...94 KM/H...WAS REPORTED AT SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND
CULEBRA THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BERG
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Center is wobbling but currently moving WNW or even NW. Just keep F5ing this .gif
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
is that a EYE JUST N OF PR CHECK IT


Can someone please post a link of the radar they are watching. Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
6578. 7544
Look at her eye maybe a hurricane at this hour imo anyone else see it just n of pr
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6676
Interesting to compare Irene to Emily(top,) at about the same stage of development.

Despite her interaction with Puerto Rico, Irene's CDO is expanding almost exponentially.

Compared to Emily, you can see that she's filling in much faster and is more robust.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
6576. Dunkman
Quoting mikeylikesyouall:
wow that wobble almost puts the storm exiting off the north side of the Island in what a couple of hours.Anyone know how much lat the system gained 1 degree or so?


My best guess looking at GRLevel3 is 18.36N 66.02W.

NHC position is a little south and west of that...I can't argue with them it's a bad radar and would be hard to pinpoint even if their NWS radar was up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It appears on radar that Irene has been moving or wobbling NWward since she made landfall an hour and a half ago. Perhaps emerging either east of or over San Juan, PR.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
6574. 7544
is that a EYE JUST N OF PR CHECK IT
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6676
Quoting Relix:
I highly doubt the COC is offshore. Winds are still coming from North to South for me in Levittown, PR. No change at all so far.


Which means the COC could be offshore to the north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 6623 - 6573

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 | 113 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 120 | 121 | 122 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 126 | 127 | 128 | 129 | 130 | 131 | 132 | 133 | 134 | 135 | 136 | 137 | 138 | 139 | 140 | 141 | 142 | 143 | 144 | 145 | 146 | 147 | 148 | 149 | 150 | 151 | 152 | 153 | 154 | 155 | 156 | 157 | 158 | 159 | 160Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
65 °F
Partly Cloudy