Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2011

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Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.


Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.

Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.


Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.

Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.

Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico

Jeff Masters

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the weather channel is so full of crap on this storm....


why even watch em anymore.....nbc has completely destroyed what TWC started as in 1982.....


r.i.p. TWC
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Quoting atmosweather:


Well it was over land at 3:45AM when the update was issued, but it jogged NW-ward quite quickly and emerged over water about 30 minutes ago. She is pretty much fully offshore now as radar confirms. NHC says the center is right along the coastline.
I will admit I was premature in calling it over water, but I am still amazed at the NHC's 5am update position. There is nothing to suggest this storm is not over water. The simple fact that they have upgraded it to a hurricane should warrant the center no longer being overland. Just another example of the NHC taking the conservative route I guess.
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Blog crash? I know we all didnt just stop posting all of the sudden.
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9-1-0
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15880
Quoting emguy:


Hence the screen name and the avatar? You may not mean it, but you are flying the flag of your job. So you are inderectly stating an opinion of that station. If you feel what you have said, you might wanna change it. In the mean time, just be safe with Irene and don't be so quick to dismiss this storm from coming your way. It could get real. Be prepared, get some good chaser footage.


Agree to Disagree
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Quoting WCSCTVCharleston:
Our Meto just said threat to coastal SC is growing


Really...duhhh
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Quoting TomTaylor:
ok so there is a 4am, my bad.

But regardless, where do you think the surface center is?





Also, just because the NHC says something does not make it true. I'm not saying I know more than the NHC or can read a radar better, but just know that their observations are subject to error and they are often conservative with radar observations. Just last night they did the same thing. Radar clearly put the storm in one place, but the NHC decided to put the storm somewhere else...even though they had no other evidence to support such a position given the absence of recon and visible satellite imagery. Once again tonight, one must wonder how the hell the NHC can say the storm is over land.


Well it was over land at 3:45AM when the update was issued, but it jogged NW-ward quite quickly and emerged over water about 30 minutes ago. She is pretty much fully offshore now as radar confirms. NHC says the center is right along the coastline.
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Morning Everyone - Checking out the Atlantic Floater for IRENE...several satellites have white images in the loops, what gives? The DVORAK is not even worth watching it's useless right now.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
ok so there is a 4am, my bad.

But regardless, the storm is over water. Radar CLEARLY shows this.





Also, just because the NHC says something does not make it true. I'm not saying I know more than the NHC or can read a radar better, but just know that their observations are subject to error and they are often conservative with radar observations. Just last night they did the same thing. Radar clearly put the storm in one place, but the NHC decided to put the storm somewhere else...even though they had no other evidence to support such a position given the absence of recon and visible satellite imagery. Once again tonight, one must wonder how the hell the NHC can say the storm is over land.
They are a bureaucracy. The have a chain of command and act slowly.
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6814. Titoxd
000
WTNT44 KNHC 220859
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

IRENE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
DESPITE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF PUERTO
RICO...AND A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN IMAGERY FROM THE FAA
TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. ALSO...LARGE PATCHES OF DOPPLER
VELOCITY VALUES AS HIGH AS 75-82 KT AT 1000-1500 FT AND 85-91 KT
AT 2000-3000 FT HAVE BEEN INDICATED NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER WATER FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS...WHICH EQUATES TO AT LEAST
65-KT SURFACE WINDS. SOME DOPPLER VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 72 KT HAVE
ALSO BEEN DETECTED AT 500-600 FT OVER WATER. AS A RESULT OF THESE
DATA...IRENE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS YIELDS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF ABOUT 290/10 KT. UPPER-AIR DATA
AT 00Z INDICATE 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE NOT CHANGED AT BERMUDA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF IRENE REMAINS QUITE STRONG. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEP
IRENE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION OFF THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND JUST SKIRTING THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND ON TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE SPECIFICS OF HOW LARGE A
BREAK OR WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDA
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT 72 HOUR AND BEYOND...WHICH WILL ALLOW
IRENE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND GFDN MODELS
ARE THE RIGHTMOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND KEEP IRENE
WELL EAST OF FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE UKMET AND THE GFDL MODELS ARE
THE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS AND TAKE IRENE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THE GFS AND THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
PACKED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND TAKE IRENE THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS AND JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS
THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW
OF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TO
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPS
AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT IRENE WILL NOT INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA AS MUCH
OR AS LONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IRENE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF
THE MODELS TO HAVE A VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...INCLUDING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ABOUT
1200 NMI EAST OF THE CYCLONE ACTING AS A MASS SINK. WITH IRENE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SSTS NEAR 30C AFTER 48 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS IRENE...IT
WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THIS CYCLONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT
SOME TIME DURING ITS LIFETIME LIKE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE
FORECASTING.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE
ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 18.4N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 18.9N 68.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 19.7N 70.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1800Z 20.4N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/0600Z 21.3N 74.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 24.0N 77.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 30.9N 81.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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6813. 7544
100 mph close to se fla
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6757
Quoting odinslightning:
quaddafi has fled and there are parties in the streets of Tripoli.
REALLY? can europe pay us back now for all the bombs and cruise missles we fired on him...lol
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Our Meto just said threat to coastal SC is growing
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Quoting WCSCTVCharleston:


It wouldn't hit at the same angle it wont be like hugo


This angle of approach would be worse for Charleston. NE quadrant. Hugo eye went over CHS and worse wind and storm surge were in McClellanville
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Forecaster Stewart is an exceptional forecaster and you can tell by reading his 5AM discussion that he is pretty concerned by this storm. The NHC tends to err on the conservative side, but he is definitely trying to make the public aware that Irene has the potential to be a serious storm down the road.
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"GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS IRENE...IT
WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THIS CYCLONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT
SOME TIME DURING ITS LIFETIME LIKE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE
FORECASTING.
"
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15880
The blog will go mad once everyone starts waking up and seeing this...
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6806. emguy
Quoting WCSCTVCharleston:



I am a storm chaser and i work in production my views do not reflect the stations or our on air news talent or managment what so ever. I love tropical weather PERIOD


Hence the screen name and the avatar? You may not mean it, but you are flying the flag of your job. So you are inderectly stating an opinion of that station. If you feel what you have said, you might wanna change it. In the mean time, just be safe with Irene and don't be so quick to dismiss this storm from coming your way. It could get real. Be prepared, get some good chaser footage.
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Quoting atmosweather:


They are issuing position updates every hour while the current hurricane warnings are in effect (they began at 12AM this morning). This is the 4AM position update.
ok so there is a 4am, my bad.

But regardless, where do you think the surface center is?





Also, just because the NHC says something does not make it true. I'm not saying I know more than the NHC or can read a radar better, but just know that their observations are subject to error and they are often conservative with radar observations. Just last night they did the same thing. Radar clearly put the storm in one place, but the NHC decided to put the storm somewhere else...even though they had no other evidence to support such a position given the absence of recon and visible satellite imagery. Once again tonight, one must wonder how the hell the NHC can say the storm is over land.
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Cat 2 at Ga landfall. That will surely go up.
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Oh dear.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 18.4N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 18.9N 68.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 19.7N 70.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1800Z 20.4N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/0600Z 21.3N 74.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 24.0N 77.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 30.9N 81.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
I have to give the NHC credit, they ended up being spot on in their 3AM advisory when they brought up the possibility of Irene becoming a hurricane before reemerging offshore. The thing is that most of the surface and buoy observations supported this, pressures at most close reporting sites were near 990 mb which suggests a minimum central pressure lower than it was at landfall.
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quaddafi has fled and there are parties in the streets of Tripoli.
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6800. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
24 HRS: 19.7N 70.5W - 70 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.3N 74.1W - 75 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
72 HRS: 24.0N 77.1W - 80 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
96 HRS: 27.0N 79.5W - 85 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)
120 HRS: 30.9N 81.5W - 95 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)
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Quoting emguy:


I'd like to see you on camera news telling everyone in Charleston what you just said. In fact, do it during the 6 AM, 11 AM, and 6 PM News...Nah, skip that, you just told everyone anyway on here anyway. Dang! If you're a reporter. How irresponsible. Seriously though, you might need to start talking hurricane prep to people if you do have a camera job in Charleston. She's not playing and she may head your way.
BTW he says a 2 is ok,but he really one of the DOOOOOOOMMMERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRS!!!!!
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6798. Titoxd
000
WTNT34 KNHC 220858
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE STRENGTHENS OVER PUERTO RICO...BECOMING THE FIRST HURRICANE
OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 66.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI
FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* ALL OF HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN FAA DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO THIS MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
REGIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
150 MILES...240 KM...MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND
CULEBRA THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 AM AST AND 900 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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given the netural environ. in the atl basin (lack of nina/nino), no strong troughs, a lack of wind shear, and a lack of strong steering winds i think Irene is gonna shoot for Turks right in the middle of the red hot gulf stream, pointing down the barrel of a gun at miami.....
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HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE STRENGTHENS OVER PUERTO RICO...BECOMING THE FIRST HURRICANE
OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 66.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
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Intensity forecast nudged upwards and a 30-40 mile track shift to the right.
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This is looking more like a S or N Car hit or possibly even outer banks/ out to sea. Right?
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9-1-0
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Quoting TampaBayWX:


clyde?
clint eastwood movie with the orangatang clyde. clyde was driving and got pulled over by the cops, eastwood says"left turn clyde" clyde then procedes to knock the cop out with a left hook. clyde would extend his left hand out to signal a turn when eastwood told him..left turn clyde. lololol sorry for the long answer
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6791. 7544
we have hurricane irene
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6757
Oh wow already upgraded to a hurricane.
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Irene is a hurricane. NHC says so.
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Quoting emguy:


I'd like to see you on camera news telling everyone in Charleston what you just said. In fact, do it during the 6 AM, 11 AM, and 6 PM News...Nah, skip that, you just told everyone anyway on here anyway. Dang! If you're a reporter. How irresponsible. Seriously though, you might need to start talking hurricane prep to people if you do have a camera job in Charleston. She's not playing and she may head your way.



I am a storm chaser and i work in production my views do not reflect the stations or our on air news talent or managment what so ever. I love tropical weather PERIOD
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6787. ABlass
re: post#6771
clyde?

It is a reference to a Clint Eastwood movie :)
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Quoting WCSCTVCharleston:



It wont be significant but it will be a little to the east


Yeah I meant more than their usual 20 mile nudge, they usually need a significant model consensus shift and for a few of their favorite trustworthy models to agree before making anything larger than that.
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6785. emguy
Quoting WCSCTVCharleston:



I don't want a cat 5 but wouldn't mind a weak 2


I'd like to see you on camera news telling everyone in Charleston what you just said. In fact, do it during the 6 AM, 11 AM, and 6 PM News...Nah, skip that, you just told everyone anyway on here anyway. Dang! If you're a reporter. How irresponsible. Seriously though, you might need to start talking hurricane prep to people if you do have a camera job in Charleston. She's not playing and she may head your way.
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Quoting odinslightning:

Link

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html



to me it looks like convection is absolutely exploding regardless of the land sheer especially in the last 3 image runs (last 45 min).


i bet all things considered (neutral atl. basin environ, low to nil wind shear, lack of strong steering winds) she is gonna feel the pull of the gulf stream and probably head for s. florida, staying off of hispanola for all intents and purposes. i see her heading for turks looking miami down the barrel....




deep convection has at least doubled overall if not close to tripled in the past 7 hrs.
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Quoting atmosweather:
We will see shortly whether the NHC is going to make a substantial E-ward track shift considering that two of their favorite models (GFDL and CMC) continue to remain well to the left of the rest of the guidance.



It wont be significant but it will be a little to the east
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We will see shortly whether the NHC is going to make a substantial E-ward track shift considering that two of their favorite models (GFDL and CMC) continue to remain well to the left of the rest of the guidance.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
by the sound of it ,you have wood


WTH? I'm making an observation about a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Quoting FrankZapper:
Another Hugo is Not out of possible.


It wouldn't hit at the same angle it wont be like hugo
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Link

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html



to me it looks like convection is absolutely exploding regardless of the land sheer especially in the last 3 image runs (last 45 min).
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Spiral banding structure is amazing to watch. Be interesting to see when I wake up this morning. See you all in a few hours.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


You can see the northern semicircle of convection really firing up on that loop as soon as it emerged over water. Shows that she is ready to really go for it.
by the sound of it ,you have wood
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Another Hugo is Not out of possible.
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Quoting depalma13:
Outter Banks or Fish Storm.



Yup always
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Her southern COC is really firing up over PR. Not a good sign.
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Outter Banks or Fish Storm.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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