Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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They are going through some kind of ravaging this morning...I bet Irene has taken the majority of people there by surprise. She is one of the more intense developing tropical cyclones I've seen in a long time.
I go to sleep with things looking fairly good, I wake UP and NHC has an H sitting offa my coast in about five days? where'd all the S's go? Clearance sale?
Geeez...leave it to night shift...
Its ready to go I really think the NHC intensity forecast is very conservative
Its only gonna get worse
Not NHC's call to do evacs, thats up to local "town, county, city," officials.
Just shows that when atmospheric conditions are right combined with warm SST's, create disaster.
Yep. Center might even be a bit farther north of the 6am position.
It appears at this time that South FL will not get a direct hit....that could change, but right now its looking better and better for FL each update. That dosnt mean to not be prepared or ready, just saying im sure people in SE FL are feeling a little better.
Yes it could and it will most likely do so in a day or two once the influence of the subtropical ridge is decreased by the approaching upper trough.
Good morning Aqua! The first thing I did even before coffee was turn on my computer. I'm hoping this isn't knocking on my door here in Boca Raton later this week.
How accurate are these TDWR radars?
Well did not expect to find that when I woke up this am...
IR makes it look like she's off the coast, but that could be the sleep in my eye's or that I haven't looked enough yet.
Air Force plane scheduled to depart in about half an hour and will reach the storm by 8AM Eastern.
Interesting..
You?? Me too!! there's a stinkin' H all the way up my coastline!! WTH???
Look at the past few posts...
Nope you're right she's offshore by about 30 miles now.
Pretty darn accurate...about as good a product as any that is currently available to the public.
TDWR radars are basically HD radars, so if anything they are more accurate than the standard ones. Also interesting that the main radar is down, Irene must be doing a number on PR. Hope our PR friends on here are okay.
South FL appears to be safe from a direct hit, but the rest of the state isn't. If north and central Florida decides to evacuate before we do however, you could have a serious problems if there are people on the high way and the storm nudges a bit to south Florida.
The fact is the entire eastern seaboard could make the decision to evacuate, and with a state like Florida, we could see another situation similar to the evacuation for Floyd. Except this time people might not be so lucky.
Maybe she'll get strong enough to just go fishin' I would think this kind of jump N would have to warrant at least some shift in model guidance...Although they are all pretty tightly clustered now. Even the Ukmet & GFDL have come east a good bit.
This will be one to remember, in that respect.
The trough is not actually forecast to pick up Irene, just create a weakness in the high pressure which will cause a turn to the NW, then N. The highs will bridge above Irene though, so it is unlikely that she will be able to escape to sea.
The information from this afternoon's high altitude flight will go into the 00Z run this evening. The flight starts at 1:30 PM EDT this afternoon.
Oh I agree 100% bro, I am all for early evacuations and early watches/warnings so people have time to get out of dodge. Everyone is welcome to come over to Tampa to escape the madness. :-)
With the new 6Z gfs run rest assured it is very likely that the official forecast will place the track offshore thru the central and NE Bahamas near the abacos on its way to SC/NC. The truth is the upcoming days in south florida will likely be very nice weather but quite hot and humid as Irene goes thru the Bahamas. My guess based on what is becoming a very tight consensus is that we will have almost no effect as we didnt when floyd passed to our east less than 200 miles away. Very similar to where Irene will likely end up. One thing though. Despite the models, anytime a storm is making a turn...just a 6 to 12 hour delay can change the track significantly. But based on the radar information the center of Irene is already well over water and rapidly getting itself together. So a more north track seems likely IMO
000
NOUS42 KWNO 220734
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
0730Z MON AUG 22 2011
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS REQUESTING SPECIAL 6-HOURLY UPPER
AIR RELEASES BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY (MON AUG 22) FROM THE
FOLLOWING STATIONS: KEY WEST, MIAMI, TAMPA, JACKSONVILLE,
TALLAHASSEE, SLIDELL, JACKSON, BIRMINGHAM, PEACHTREE CITY,
CHARLESTON, MOREHEAD CITY, GREENSBORO, NASHVILLE, WILMINGTON,
PITTSBURGH, BLACKSBURG, STERLING AND WALLOPS ISLAND.
I have the heading at 283.
Hurricane Jeanne of 2004 track while in the same position that Irene finds herself this morning-
By a day later, the NHC is showing a South Carolina landfall-
Models begin to indicate that the first trof will pull northward too quickly and leave Jeanne being pushed west again by a building high.
By later that same day, the NHC comes to this conclusion. I think we all know what the track ends up doing...
I am in no way forecasting this to happen with Irene, but I am just reminding everyone that these tracks are nowhere near being set in stone. In fact, in Jeanne's case, the NHC was basically following the model consensus the entire time; the models remained in fairly good agreement throughout the duration of the storm while wildly flopping back and forth.
In the image above you can see that the main TROF is starting to flatten out (which is the one responsible for helping erode the western periphery of the Bermuda High and allow Irene to gain some latitude), but before is fully out you can see another piece of energy trying to provide some additional amplitude to the TROF but won't be strong enough to do so (to the extent the first one did).
Finally, you can see the western periphery of Irene flattening out (cirrus outflow - aloft) N of DR. This represents the a High pressure extension that is going to be building on top Irene and ensuring she stays on a WNW track, but before that happens Irene should be entering a weak steering pattern so fluctuation in speed/direction could be expected while the main driving forces get setup to allow Irene to progress past DR and into the Bahamas region.
Viewing: 6901 - 6951
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