Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2011

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Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.


Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.

Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.


Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.

Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.

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Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico

Jeff Masters

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1473. 7544
ecm sticking to its guns still so fla hit again does not agree with the gfs
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6858
It is a very impressive looking cyclone, you can't deny that.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF 1800z update, FWIW:

AL, 09, 2011082118, , BEST, 0, 175N, 637W, 45, 999, TS, 34, NEQ, 130, 0, 0, 70, 1010, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRENE, M,


In our "pseudo" eye.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
1470. Patrap
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Already starting a northward turn in 96 hours:


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Quoting BahaHurican:
Can I ask, on behalf of other IE users, that fellow bloggers link utube videos rather than post them directly into the blog? Almost every Utube video posted here now seems to discombobulate the blog. It's particularly annoying because the only way to rid oneself of the offending post is to put the blogger on ignore until the next page...

is it that PRweather man again?.I have him on ignore.So I'm not getting any problems.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
979mb in 72 hours. Just like the GFS, it depicts little in the way of land interaction.


in that image, either Irene needs to slow down or that trough needs to speed up
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Irene doin good. What's the reason that it ain't more than 50mph?
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


IDK...just the fact that Dr. M mentioned GA, SC and NC has my stomach doing flip flops...thinking i will hit the store tomorrow for a few extra canned things just in case...and gonna work on the ice from the ice maker and empty it every chance i get into bags just in case...not liking this...seriously gonna be critter watching the next few days


One thing for certain the normal FISHCASTERS will get no audience with this one. There will be east coast WISHCASTERS though. Millions will be wishing for it to hit somewhere else.

Block ice is what you want by the way. Fill some plastic tubs, ice cream buckets, etc., with water and freeze them. Lasts days longer than cubes.
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1463. ncstorm
Quoting MZT:
What Levi32 commented on in his blog post is that the weakness that draws Irene north is expected to be short lived. That could make the track more like Hugo and less like Irene or Floyd.

With those latter two, yes the track continued to shift east with each run. There was speculation toward the end that NC might even avoid a hit.


I didnt get that out of his video..but okay
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Quoting hunkerdown:
but North Carolina is not considered a "Southeast State"


Yes it is. Its considered both a southeastern and Mid-Atlantic state, depending on who is talking about it.
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You guys realize this is the third time this season we've had watches issued here in the Bahamas... so far impacts have been minimal.

This may be the basin record for the season so far.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Many times yes. They typically start out heading for N Fl, to S SC; and then end up in Wilmington to the OBX.

Hiya Tigger.
hmmm... but does it have GOOD chance of hitting Carolinas unlike other hurricanes? I'm just very concerned about my aunt's family in Charleston, SC.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8030
1459. MahFL
I see an eye clearing out !
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TROPICAL STORM IRENE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
107 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

...IRENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...STORM INFORMATION WAS UPDATED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL
WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS...
ST CROIX.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS...ST CROIX.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL
WATERS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS...ST CROIX.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS
THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 12 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0N...LONGITUDE 63.2W. THIS WAS ABOUT 210 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF PONCE PR...OR ABOUT 120 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX
VI. STORM MOTION WAS WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE CONTINUES TOWARDS THE
WEST NORTHWEST AND IT REPRESENTS A SERIOUS THREAT TO THE LOCAL
AREA...SINCE THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF ST
CROIX AND VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
IMPLIES AN IMMINENT RISK FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND
FREQUENT BANDS OF INTENSE RAINFALL WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING
NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. BANDS OF MOISTURE
WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN CIRCULATION ARE ALREADY AFFECTING ST CROIX
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA THIS MORNING...AND THEN
CONTINUE TO PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...CONTINUE WITH YOUR PREPARATIONS AND
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY
FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 3 PM AST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

VIZ001-002-221715-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.HU.A.1009.110821T1707Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
107 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FINAL ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED
BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. COVER WINDOWS AND DOORS WITH
SHUTTERS OR PLYWOOD. MOVE PATIO FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OUTDOOR
OBJECTS INSIDE. BRACE ALL EXTERIOR DOORS...INCLUDING GARAGE DOORS.

COMPLY WITH ANY EVACUATION ORDERS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. IF YOU
LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF
YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS...OR YOU LIVE IN A SURGE
ZONE OR ANY LOCATION PRONE TO FLOODING...EVACUATE TO A DESIGNATED
SHELTER OR RIDE OUT THE STORM IN THE STURDY HOME OF FAMILY OR
FRIENDS OUTSIDE OF EVACUATION ZONES.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM IRENE MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
35 TO 50 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 65 MPH OR GREATER. EAST SWELLS
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY BY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED
SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAIN BANDS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED AREAS. THIS RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES OF
LOCAL STREAMS AND GUTS...AND COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING. MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE ANTICIPATED IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE IMPACT FROM COMBINED STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THE STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
1 TO 3 FEET. THIS SURGE WILL ADD TO THE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CREATING ABOVE NORMAL TIDES. THUS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF INUNDATION OF LOW LYING AREAS UNTIL THE ONSHORE
WINDS SUBSIDE.

IN ADDITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS
AND HAZARDOUS SURF COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION...
AND POSSIBLY COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADS.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS...AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
IRENE APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA AND THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. REMEMBER...TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP MANY MILES AWAY FROM THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can I ask, on behalf of other IE users, that fellow bloggers link utube videos rather than post them directly into the blog? Almost every Utube video posted here now seems to discombobulate the blog. It's particularly annoying because the only way to rid oneself of the offending post is to put the blogger on ignore until the next page...

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1454. ncstorm
Quoting hunkerdown:
but North Carolina is not considered a "Southeast State"


was there a sucession? LOL..were we kicked out the south and no one told me?
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1453. Gorty
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
979mb in 72 hours. Just like the GFS, it depicts little in the way of land interaction.




Yeah it could go south of PR and then inbetween the two islands.
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ATCF 1800z update, FWIW:

AL, 09, 2011082118, , BEST, 0, 175N, 637W, 45, 999, TS, 34, NEQ, 130, 0, 0, 70, 1010, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRENE, M,
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Quoting zparkie:
come on islands, do your job, smash this thing to peices!


Nope. I don't think that is going to happen.
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Quoting Patrap:
IR Unenhanced



OK...she's starting to convince me she is getting a bit better organized in the last few frames (slow strengthening)...but still waiting for some dramatic convective burst or banding type eye at the center before I see this being a significant intensification event....
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Quoting washingtonian115:
But what about Gustav?.As we all know Gustav was not as near server as katrina.But the media went to NOLA once again and tried to hype a situation.When actually the storm hit Baton Rouge and caused major damage there.


True dat.
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1448. 7544
is that a eye or not
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6858
1447. scott39
Quoting nola70119:


The upper level steering is the key and that is where the NHC rocks.....to read the cards you have to look at the charts that deal with that part of the atmosphere.
Please explain more.
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12z EURO skirts Hispaniola and Cuba, and blows it up in the Bahamas.

Pretty realistic track.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
1445. MZT
Quoting tiggeriffic:


IDK...just the fact that Dr. M mentioned GA, SC and NC has my stomach doing flip flops...
What Levi32 commented on in his blog post is that the weakness that draws Irene north is expected to be short lived. That could make the track more like Hugo and less like Isabel or Floyd.

With those latter two, yes the track continued to shift east with each run. There was speculation toward the end that NC might even avoid a hit.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
but North Carolina is not considered a "Southeast State"


?
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Interesting eye-like feature on the RGB this afternoon. What gives?
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I am confused now with all the wishcasting..."it's going to NC,GA,SC etc... so will florida be out of the cone now at 5pm?
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979mb in 72 hours. Just like the GFS, it depicts little in the way of land interaction.


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Quoting weatherman12345:
levi, would you say a South Fla hurricane is much less likely now?


The upper level steering is the key and that is where the NHC rocks.....to read the cards you have to look at the charts that deal with that part of the atmosphere.
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1438. Gorty
Looks like the dry air is making her west side really bad.
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Hello guys
Been lurking for the past month and it appears we may very well have our first hurricane of the season..
but it is also possible that we might not. It very well depends on its track. The more land interactions it has the less likely for a hurricane. with that said. To answer the question why would the Ukmet have it so far west might be because if it interacts with land it might keep weak or weaken it so it feels less of the weakness caused by the trough digging in. IMO. only time will tell.
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1436. Patrap

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

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Quoting nola70119:
Katrina wiped Waveland out completely, leveled it......but whatever water came in, moved right out. In NOLA we had a week of flood life, living in canoes, paddling to the store....fun stuff like that.
But what about Gustav?.As we all know Gustav was not as near server as katrina.But the media went to NOLA once again and tried to hype a situation.When actually the storm hit Baton Rouge and caused major damage there.
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1434. Patrap
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve




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Quoting Bluestorm5:
not surprised... does this happens everytime a major threatened East Coast like this?


Many times yes. They typically start out heading for N Fl, to S SC; and then end up in Wilmington to the OBX.

Hiya Tigger.
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Quoting WxLogic:


Let's see if it remain consistent with last run or ???

It has been the most consistent series of model runs from the star, I've ever seen. But it very well could start a move back west again, in next few runs, but I tend to think it will stay eastward. By Tuesday or Weds of next week, it will be the 3 cone of terror and it's pretty accurate.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Well what do you know..NWS in Wilmington, NC has changed it tune..

000
FXUS62 KILM 211738
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
138 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH AND A FEW APPROACHING DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MEANWHILE
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
SUSTAINING A CHANCE OF RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD
INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE
IRENE COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
but North Carolina is not considered a "Southeast State"
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Quoting ncstorm:
Well what do you know..NWS in Wilmington, NC has changed it tune..

000
FXUS62 KILM 211738
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
138 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH AND A FEW APPROACHING DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MEANWHILE
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
SUSTAINING A CHANCE OF RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD
INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE
IRENE COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.


O_o
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1428. scott39
Quoting Hurricanes12:


Cones and discussions are released at 5 A.M./P.M. and 11 A.M./P.M., not during the 2 A.M./P.M. and 8 A.M./P.M. intermediate advisories.
Thanks
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1427. Patrap
IR Unenhanced

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Quoting MississippiWx:


The problem is that it's going to go basically right over PR with the center reformation. There is nothing that hints Irene is strengthening much at this time. Unless convection gets going in earnest, hurricane intensity is probably not going to happen before PR.


I think at best a strong TS before PR. Still Irene could do quite a bit of damage there.
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1424. 2ifbyC
Quoting zparkie:
no one predicted that.


Da 'cone' did! Same for Charlie...
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Quoting JLPR2:
Interesting look, but lacking a little convection.


WHOA....that is a tad eye-ish...but what if its a coincidence with the random crumpled clouds at the broad center?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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