Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2011

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Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.


Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.

Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.


Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.

Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.

Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WxLogic:


"Good Solution" statement was not to imply that is set in stone, but to convey a favorable track for everyone. Hope that takes care of your inquietude on that part.
I wasn't really worried at all about it, just commenting on your word choice there. Thanks.
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Quoting charlottefl:


I don't know whether a WNW orientation is possible. A S-N orientation is possible if the high to the E were to build in more, of if the storm stayed weaker..
Thanks. I meant the direction of the storm...wnw but thanks.
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Irene might miss the U.S.
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Intersting note Ref. 11AM Advisory ....

Public Advisory - Movement stated as 300 degrees
Discussion - Movement stated as 295 degrees
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Poor Bahamas.... I feel for you guys. I hope you all stay safe!
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 221504
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. HOWEVER THE WINDS WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS AROUND 988 MB IN THE LAST
CENTER DROPSONDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70
KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS NOT
FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AND
THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE... THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND MAKES IRENE A
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IN
FACT...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. IRENE IS BECOMING
A LARGE CYCLONE...AND BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND 160 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. IRENE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST...BUT
STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH IT IS
TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE CURRENT GUIDANCE LESSENS THE THREAT
TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4
TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE
FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 19.2N 67.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 19.9N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 20.5N 71.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 21.2N 73.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 22.0N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 28.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 32.5N 80.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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I bekieve it is way too early to make a statement that the threat to S. Florida is lessened. but that's Avila..there are too many variables..obviouly no watches for Florida with Avila on.
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Quoting Grandpato4:


I am sorry, but posting official looking information that is only a guess should be grounds for an immediate ban. I am reporting that post.
,unfortunatle the poster is a repeat offender and likekly has a mental disorder(seriously), he should be ignored and as i stated we just need to "understand" that its probably not his fault and he has a condition,it is a public blog and these things will happen;)
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Quoting Grothar:



What do you think of the GFDL solution?

I *think* GFDL is having issues with building/sustaining convection early in the run, soon after initialization. As a result, the model allows too much westward movement before developing Irene enough for mid to upper level steering and Beta effect to take hold.

JMO.
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Quoting PaulinJax:
Today, August 22, 2011, 33 minutes ago
August 22, 2011 9:50 am EDT
Location: 23.838N 68.333W
Wind Direction: ENE (70°)
Wind Speed: 17.5 knots
Wind Gust: 19.4 knots
Significant Wave Height: 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Average Period: 5.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.95 in (1014.2 mb)
Pressure Tendency: +0.00 in (+0.0 mb)
Air Temperature: 84.4°F (29.1°C)
Dew Point: 77.4°F (25.2°C)
Water Temperature: 84.2°F (29.0°C)


This bouy is already seeing gusts close to 20....
Where's this?
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 221503
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 67.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK THE CORE OF IRENE SHOULD BE PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AND REACH THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN PUERTO
RICO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC LATER TODAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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Quoting wxhatt:
Quoting TampaBayWX:
How is it that many expert weather scientists across many countries, combined years and years of experience, hundreds of powerful computer systems, and access to all the data from hurricane hunters, satellites, buoys, and ship vessels since the 1800's DO NOT know where the hurricane is going....

Yet people sitting online at home on their couch eating cereal in their PJ's KNOW exactly where the hurricane will make land fall?

How does that add up?

I don't understand.


I don't either. When I first got on this blog and was chainsawed by some on my comments of those whom may only have their GED equivilent, I was flabbergasted.
I could at least say I have completed college course in Meteorology with a heavy cirriculum in math and science.

Go figure, LOL.


Truer words have never been spoken!
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Today, August 22, 2011, 33 minutes ago
August 22, 2011 9:50 am EDT
Location: 23.838N 68.333W
Wind Direction: ENE (70°)
Wind Speed: 17.5 knots
Wind Gust: 19.4 knots
Significant Wave Height: 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Average Period: 5.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.95 in (1014.2 mb)
Pressure Tendency: +0.00 in (+0.0 mb)
Air Temperature: 84.4°F (29.1°C)
Dew Point: 77.4°F (25.2°C)
Water Temperature: 84.2°F (29.0°C)


This bouy is already seeing gusts close to 20....
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Ladies and Gentlemen, the 2011 hurricane season has now been canceled. Due to the behavior on the blog we will now take down Irene and remove the storm from the Atlantic. Please return for the 2012 season, have a nice day.


No refunds. Next year before registering must present certificate of completion for "Plays well with others" course

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Quoting oceanblues32:


they all show a direct hit her in south florida i am confused now
,some wrap around ridging going on,with the high to her east pushing her west or wnw
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Major Hurricane by Thursday. SC nowin the crosshairs.
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7957. wxhatt
Quoting 7544:
nam shows land fall in so fla will the gfs follow later ?


The NAM (North American Model) should not be relied upon for Tropical Systems. It is only used for short term forcasting.
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7956. Ryuujin
Quoting 69Viking:


I guess I'm not seeing it. The only low I see spinning is the Low that is NW of Maine and heading NE. The only other spin I see across the U.S. is that High that it's death grip on Texas.


It doesn't have a spin of it's own, it's just the tail end of the spin you are seeing. Its just that if that bit gets cutoff then it can develop. Didn't say it would, but a good ole cutoff low would be a monkey wrench in the works, that's for sure
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Quoting FLdewey:
I think South Florida will begin to leave the cone of uncertainty today.


is there a Cone of Certainty that they will transition to?

Cones of Uncertainty would be a great name for a band or a softball team.
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Quoting FLdewey:
I think South Florida will begin to leave the cone of uncertainty today.


Agreed...but they will leave a tiny coastal area of SE Florida in the cone just to mess with people! ;-)
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Quoting P451:
West half of the storm is out of radar reach. Now we're in the dark structure wise until Cuba begins to pick her up.

Their radars aren't the best however.

Our radar has been "down" for at least 3 years... just meaning they have no intention of internet broadcasts beginning again any time soon :o(
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Irene back at 80mph, 988mb.
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Quoting Grandpato4:


I am sorry, but posting official looking information that is only a guess should be grounds for an immediate ban. I am reporting that post.
And use your ignore button. Once no one quotes him/her, they will go away. :)
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Quoting MoltenIce:
Stop making things up.

One more in my Ignore list.
Many already have him on ignore.
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Quoting Ryuujin:


Look at the bottom part of the trough. That is what is called a cut off Low, because it's being CUT OFF from the rest. If this happens then we have no idea how it will affect Irene. At least I do not, because cut off lows tend to act of their own accord


I guess I'm not seeing it. The only low I see spinning is the Low that is NW of Maine and heading NE. The only other spin I see across the U.S. is that High that it's death grip on Texas.
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7937. wxhatt
I hope those whom are spatting at the mouth over model details have done their homework as Dr. Master's suggested the other day on his blog.

Here is the link:

Tropical Cyclone Track Guidence used by the NHC


Fair warning, some may find it somewhat technical or boring. I found it very helpful.

Thank you Dr. Masters

:)
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Quoting Grandpato4:


Wow only 65 mph now?

it's a fake. don't pay attention to what he posts.
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Quoting Grandpato4:


Wow only 65 mph now?


No....that is false information.
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Quoting chevycanes:

sure is.

what Bahamian Island are you on again?
New Providence, aka "Big City Island"... lol... small eye-shaped island midway between Andros and Eleuthera... population centre of the country, as about 300,000 of the approximately 350,000 residents live here.
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Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2011 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 19:07:00 N Lon : 67:33:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 978.7mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 3.9

Center Temp : -72.5C Cloud Region Temp : -63.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.9 degrees
The weakening flag is always on right?
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floodman ... if you are still here. new to the blog, been lurking for a long time. been trying to introduce myself to the civil and respectful posters on the blog. btw i always need a good laugh or two myself. no better place to get that than on this blog, esp on a monday
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7927. Dunkman
Dvorak isn't incredibly useful when we have radar and recon...just saying.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



AND U HAVE NO AUTHORITY SAYING IRENE WHICH IS GOING TO BE A CAT 2 BEARING DOWN ON FLA HAVE NO RIGHT TO SAY FLA WILL GET NOTHING FROM IT...THATS A REAL ASSININE STATEMENT ON YOUR PART...I HAVE BEEN FORCASTING HURRICANES FOR OVER 20 YEARS AND I THINK YOU NEED TO LEARN THE TRICKS OF THE TRADE.....YOU HAVE CALMED DOWN THE WHOLE STATE OF FLA AND WHEN IRENE HITS I HOPE YOU ARE PROUD OF THE CASULTIES YOU ARE GOING TO CAUSE BECAUSE PEOPLE TOOK YOUR WORD A 20 YEAR OLD WET BEHIND THE EAR KID...
Geez, man. Seriously, calm down. Is that guy a tv met? No, just a blogger, learning (and making mistakes). Does the entire state of Florida log in to Dr. Masters' blog and use our posts as gospel for a coming storm? Extremely doubtful. I can see that this blogger is riling you up. Be the better blogger and ignore him, he isn't worth you blowing a gasket in front of all the bloggers.
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Quoting P451:



Please understand.

That line is to be ignored. The Weakening Flag has ALWAYS been on. I've seen it on when storms are undergoing RI.

I don't know why, but it always is, ignore it. ENTIRELY.



Makes no nevermind to me, i dont care either way i was just answering his question as to where to find that information. Also, I dont always see it ON but ok.
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7924. Ryuujin
Quoting 69Viking:


Your so called cut off low is high tailing it to the Canadian Maritimes and then North out over the Atlantic up and over the Ridge. This is why I think the NHC keeps FL in the crosshairs. As soon as that Ridge builds back in the further West she's going to go IMO.


Look at the bottom part of the trough. That is what is called a cut off Low, because it's being CUT OFF from the rest. If this happens then we have no idea how it will affect Irene. At least I do not, because cut off lows tend to act of their own accord
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WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS
THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW
OF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TO
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPS
AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.



What does this mean for florida... curious i am in ft lauderdale
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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