Irene roars into life; may become the season's first hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:03 AM GMT on August 21, 2011

Share this Blog
29
+

Tropical Storm Irene roared into life this evening, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm was finishing up its mission when it suddenly came across a region with intense thunderstorms and surface winds of 50 mph. The aircraft found that a center of circulation had barely closed off on the southwest edge of this region, though the plane found almost no winds from the west around the circulation center. The 6:10pm EDT center fix found a central pressure of 1007mb, which is quite high for the observed 50 mph winds. Dry air to the north and west is slowing development, as well as moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Infrared satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm is poorly organized, with no evidence of spiral bands. The center of Irene is expected to cross over the Caribbean island of Dominica early Sunday morning, but the heaviest thunderstorms lie to the north of the center, and will affect Guadeloupe, Antigua, and St. Kitts and Nevis.


Figure 1. Evening satellite image of Irene.

The computer models have shifted southwards since yesterday, and now take Irene south of Puerto Rico on Monday, and along the south shore of the Dominican Republic on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Irene should pass near or over southern Haiti, Eastern Cuba, and Jamaica. On Wednesday and Thursday, the models agree that a trough of low pressure will dip down over the Eastern U.S., which is likely to turn Irene to the north. The exact timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. We can expect that Irene will impact Central Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Florida Keys on Thursday, but it is uncertain whether Irene's turn to the north will take the storm into the Gulf of Mexico or not. Irene most reminds me of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.


Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.

Irene will be battling dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots through Sunday, and it will take the storm 1 - 3 days to build up an eyewall and intensify into a hurricane. Irene is more of a threat than Tropical Storm Emily of early August was, since Irene has closed off a center farther east than Emily did and has more time to organize before encountering Hispaniola. I don't think passage over Hispaniola will destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm, and is likely to be a hurricane by then. However, if Irene follows the NHC forecast, it will have an extended encounter with Hispaniola and Cuba on Tuesday through Wednesday that will probably weaken the storm below hurricane force. Keep in mind that the average error for an official 5-day forecast from NHC for a developed storm is 200 - 250 miles. Irene could easily miss Florida and move up the East Coast and hit North or South Carolina, or pass through the Florida Keys and into Gulf of Mexico, ending up who knows where. Given the uncertainties, this weekend would be a good time to go over your hurricane preparedness if you live anywhere in the Caribbean, Bahamas, or U.S. coast, since Irene could well be paying you a visit as a tropical storm or hurricane sometime in the next week.

Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on northern Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as the storm tracks westwards at 12 mph. Dissipation is expected Sunday as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.


Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.

An exceptionally active early part of hurricane season
It's been a strangely hyperactive season for weak storms in the Atlantic so far this year. Tropical Storm Irene is the 9th named storm this year, and its formation date of August 20 ties 2011 with 1936 as the 2nd earliest date for formation of the season's 9th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier date. The first eight storms this year have stayed below hurricane strength, making 2011 the first hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851 to have more than six consecutive tropical storms that did not reach hurricane strength. As I discussed in Friday's post, a major reason for this is the lack of vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic so far this year. We've had a large amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and the usual amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara, both helping to keep the atmosphere stable and stop this year's storms from intensifying into hurricanes. Hurricane activity typically ramps up big-time by August 20, with more than 80% of all the hurricanes and 65% of all the tropical storms occurring after that date. At our current pace, 2011 will become the second busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 24 - 27 named storms. There are only 21 names in the list of names for a hurricane season, so we may have to break out the Greek alphabet again in late October this year, as occurred in 2005. Ironically, this was the last time the current set of names was used in the Atlantic, so 16 of this year's 21 names are repeats of 2005. I'm not too happy about seeing another hurricane season challenge the Hurricane Season of 2005 in any way, and let's hope we don't retire another five names this year, like occurred in 2005! With vertical instability much lower this year than in 2005, and that year having already seen one storm (Dennis) retired by this point in the season, I doubt that will happen, though.


Figure 2. The annual cycle of average hurricane frequency in the Atlantic. Historically, about 35% of all the tropical storms and 15% of all the hurricanes will have occurred by August 20.

Invest 98L near the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave near Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, is spreading heavy rains and strong gusty winds to those islands today. So far this morning, top sustained winds measured in the Cape Verde Islands were 23 mph at Mindelo. 98L has a long stretch of ocean to cross before it could affect any land areas. Approximately 70 - 80% of all tropical cyclones that pass this close to the Cape Verde Islands end up curving out to sea and not affecting any other land areas, according to Dr. Bob Hart's excellent historical probability of landfall charts. The latest set of long-range model runs go along with this idea, and I'd be surprised if 98L threatens any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2721 - 2671

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74Blog Index

Quoting InTheCone:
06z GFS is running, and looks BAD for SE FL...



I hope that ends up being false... :-(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
06Z GFS track is very similar to the NHC track, just slightly to the east.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
06z GFS is running, and looks BAD for SE FL...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning, from 2 a.m. NHC Advisory:

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM ONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...T.S. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY...THEN TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2715. tj175
WOW the track has been steadily on South Florida(my hometown Miramar to be exact). This doesn't look good but i will still wait until Monday evening to see how things are shaping out to see if i need to go grocery shopping for more supplies.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherjr:
At this moment I do not expect hurricane type winds here in PR. May be 40 MPH winds as much.


Puerto Rico will only experience hurricane force winds if there is a direct hit, which is unlikely in my opinion. The main impacts will be tropical storm force winds and some pretty heavy rainfall as you guys will be on the N-erly (and wetter) side of the system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherjr:
The storm has weakened a bit?


No it has maintained its intensity while fighting a little dry air and a relocation/reformation of the center earlier in the night. Radar imagery shows a pretty well organized central core with hints of a partial eyewall trying to form.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE
A BIG IMPACT ON THE EXPECTED WX CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
IT MAY SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE T.S. IRENE FUTURE TRACK. T.S. IRENE
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND
APPROACH THE VICINITY OF CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS BY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH A
FORECAST THIS FAR IN THE FUTURE, SOUTH FLORIDA IS WITHIN THE
FORECAST ERROR CONE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS IN SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO KEEP MONITORING IRENE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:


Could the everglades be considered like an ocean to the hurricane? lol j/k Thank you for your info!!


Lol well we have indeed seen storms in the past maintain their strength while passing through that region (Fay in 2008 being the most recent example, which actually strengthened slightly while moving over the Everglades). But obviously living 40 miles away from the coastline has the significant benefit of not encountering the dangerous storm surge from a strong hurricane. Wind damage, rainfall and isolated tornadoes are your biggest worries.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmosweather:


Okay, well at least you are a few dozen miles inland, that's something. Right now I'd say your general area should start preparing for the possibility of a hurricane strike by Thursday or Friday. If I were to give you a feeling on whether Irene could bypass your area, the current forecast pattern favors the storm moving a little to your east, which would be significantly better than a slight miss to the west as you will not be in the most dangerous right front quadrant of the storm.


Could the everglades be considered like an ocean to the hurricane? lol j/k Thank you for your info!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


Same here, in Sunrise/Welleby :)


I'm in Pembroke Pines...chapel trail...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Radar imagery from the Antilles continues to show a pretty well defined surface center in Irene with strong thunderstorms to the N and E. There's a little more spiral banding evident than 6-12 hours ago which suggests the storm is trying to consolidate further. There may be a partial eyewall beginning to form but this could be temporary. Overall Irene is very organized and is doing a decent job of mixing out some drier stable air that has pushed into the circulation from the W. If an eyewall does indeed continue to form and establish itself then I would expect Irene to become a hurricane sometime later today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Yeah tell me bout it. Gustav toe up my place in 08. My wife, son, and myself evacuated. Then came home to no power, water over a foot deep in the yard, and almost no house. A huge oak tree just missed the house. Some of my neighbors weren't as lucky. My son was only 4 months old at the time, but I had the generator and a window unit, so we were cool.


My neighbors have an oak tree that puts a BILLION leaves in my yard during dry season....I almost wish that hurricane would come here and knock that thing down!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:


Western Broward County....by the everglades...


Same here, in Sunrise/Welleby :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:


I hope so too.... insurance companies are not fun to deal with!! and I like a/c and can't live without it!! lol


Yeah tell me bout it. Gustav toe up my place in 08. My wife, son, and myself evacuated. Then came home to no power, water over a foot deep in the yard, and almost no house. A huge oak tree just missed the house. Some of my neighbors weren't as lucky. My son was only 4 months old at the time, but I had the generator and a window unit, so we were cool.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:


Western Broward County....by the everglades...


Okay, well at least you are a few dozen miles inland, that's something. Right now I'd say your general area should start preparing for the possibility of a hurricane strike by Thursday or Friday. If I were to give you a feeling on whether Irene could bypass your area, the current forecast pattern favors the storm moving a little to your east, which would be significantly better than a slight miss to the west as you will not be in the most dangerous right front quadrant of the storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2698. Titoxd
I don't think I have ever seen this one:

000
WTNT24 KNHC 210924
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3...RESENT
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0900 UTC SUN AUG 21 2011

PRODUCT RESENT FOR COMMUNICATIONS CHECK

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A lot of people posting negative comments about each other on here, I don’t see many saying thanks. So I just wanted to say thank you to everyone on here who selflessly sacrifice personal time to provide all the information that helps people prepare and take the proper action when the time comes.

I live in Tampa, Fl and own my own company which is very weather dependant. I am no weather expert so I rely on the NHC but mostly I always watch all of your guys and gals posts which help me make sense of all the big words.

Your hard work isn’t going unnoticed here.

- David
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmosweather:


Still quite a lot of time left for things to be ironed out track-wise. Everything hinges on the exact path over Hispanola and/or Cuba.

Whereabouts do you live?


Western Broward County....by the everglades...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:
Everybody is just now going to sleep, I just woke up! lol


In about 2 hours there will be 400 people on here lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:


well, then I hope the cone moves away....I'm sure that there are others who want the thing....


Still quite a lot of time left for things to be ironed out track-wise. Everything hinges on the exact path over Hispanola and/or Cuba.

Whereabouts do you live?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:
Everybody is just now going to sleep, I just woke up! lol
Don't worry,they will come by the hundreds!LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmosweather:


It would have to cross a significant portion of the island, as a minimal hurricane or less, and move rather slowly for the storm to be disrupted to the point of no further threat. Right now, I expect Irene to be between a strong Cat 1 and a strong Cat 2 once it encounters Hispanola and it should only cross the island for a 8-12 hour period at most. That will not kill the storm.


well, then I hope the cone moves away....I'm sure that there are others who want the thing....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Edit:

Wind gusts, valid 8p.m EDT Thursday.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Well hello it's nice to meet another bi-centennial baby. Hopefully you want have major issues or damages from Irene.


I hope so too.... insurance companies are not fun to deal with!! and I like a/c and can't live without it!! lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:


December was an excellent month!! lol


Well hello it's nice to meet another bi-centennial baby. Hopefully you want have major issues or damages from Irene.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gotta get some sleep. BBL...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ClydeFrog:
love the mis-information that goes on here, from people who have THINK they know what they are talking about....
Quoting ClydeFrog:
This is all too funny, bunch of idiots second guessing people with actual educations.... Mississippi get a life and an education. Your from MS so we know you have the education level of a typical person from MS. Time for a life I think if your on here at 4 am.... Get an education


Attained Education Levels by State from 1990 to 2008
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:
...If this storm goes over Haiti like it looks like it will, won't it be the end of it? I live in western broward (pembroke pines)....I really enjoy my power and DO NOT want to lose that!! I also enjoy my roof and don't want to lose any tiles!! I'm pretty sure that it will die over hispanola... what do you all think?


It would have to cross a significant portion of the island, as a minimal hurricane or less, and move rather slowly for the storm to be disrupted to the point of no further threat. Right now, I expect Irene to be between a strong Cat 1 and a strong Cat 2 once it encounters Hispanola and it should only cross the island for a 8-12 hour period at most. That will not kill the storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Everybody is just now going to sleep, I just woke up! lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Groundhog day 1976 was an awesome day!!!


Gotta call it a night. Be back on the night shift again this evening lurking around.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Groundhog day 1976 was an awesome day!!!


December was an excellent month!! lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ClydeFrog:
no it means I live in STT and am waiting for Irene, so that would be why I am up... What is your excuse except having no wife and education? lol losers... just like Taz.... education helps everything MS....


Project much?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:


I agree!! 1976 was a super good year!! lol :)


Groundhog day 1976 was an awesome day!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning, just woke up, need a quick refresh on any new developments? I see the intensity has not changed...only looked at IR view and it seems there is some dry air entrainment. But a well developed LLC on radar. Haven't seen any model runs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2679. Titoxd
000
WTNT34 KNHC 210921
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

CORRECTED WIND HAZARDS SECTION AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION

...IRENE LASHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SQUALLS AND
HEAVY RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 61.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF CABO ENGANO.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND
CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD
TO THE HAITI BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...AND ST.
BARTHELEMY
* DOMINICA
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO NORTH OF CABO ENGANO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND
CULEBRA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...REPORTS FROM RADAR...SATELLITE...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON. IRENE COULD APPROACH
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...
240 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
TONIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE
MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


It should weaken it some, I don't think it'd kill it though. But who knows for sure really? 1976 is a good year. some of the smartest, best looking people were born that year. haha


I agree!! 1976 was a super good year!! lol :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yesterway:


I hope you do not experience power loss and property damage. If the current forecast holds it will probably get very rough where you are...


I know a lot of people like to see a storm, but I'm really hoping that the mountains kills this one.... sure, the storm is cool at first....neat to watch the wind....but then when the power goes out, that is absolutel NO fun!! ugh!! lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:
...If this storm goes over Haiti like it looks like it will, won't it be the end of it? I live in western broward (pembroke pines)....I really enjoy my power and DO NOT want to lose that!! I also enjoy my roof and don't want to lose any tiles!! I'm pretty sure that it will die over hispanola... what do you all think?


It should weaken it some, I don't think it'd kill it though. But who knows for sure really? 1976 is a good year. some of the smartest, best looking people were born that year. haha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:
...If this storm goes over Haiti like it looks like it will, won't it be the end of it? I live in western broward (pembroke pines)....I really enjoy my power and DO NOT want to lose that!! I also enjoy my roof and don't want to lose any tiles!! I'm pretty sure that it will die over hispanola... what do you all think?


I hope you do not experience power loss and property damage. If the current forecast holds it will probably get very rough where you are...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting barotropic:
Official NWS forecast already reflecting Irene in local weather here in Broward. Calls for winds increasing to 39 mph wens night and increasing Thurs and Thurs night. Rain increasing thursday and heavy thurs night. Here we go.
But before I leave, lol, Miami NWS has wind gusts up to 50 knots off of the south Florida coast on Thursday as Irene approaches. Updated 20 minutes ago:



Now I'm out.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
...If this storm goes over Haiti like it looks like it will, won't it be the end of it? I live in western broward (pembroke pines)....I really enjoy my power and DO NOT want to lose that!! I also enjoy my roof and don't want to lose any tiles!! I'm pretty sure that it will die over hispanola... what do you all think?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
Alright, I'm out for now. Night all, try and get some sleep lol
Same here.

Night all.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Official NWS forecast already reflecting Irene in local weather here in Broward. Calls for winds increasing to 39 mph wens night and increasing Thurs and Thurs night. Rain increasing thursday and heavy thurs night. Here we go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2721 - 2671

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.