Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

Share this Blog
21
+

A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3696 - 3646

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74Blog Index

3696. JBirdFireMedic
4:50 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 247
3695. CaneHunter031472
4:45 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, August 19th, with Video


Thank you so much for the great update Levi. As I was pointing out yesterday it is still too early to pinpoint a landfall location especially due to the fact that this system is still in it's embrionic stages sort of speak. I concur with your analysis of how timing will affect this system. I believe that if it reaches TS status or stronger south of Puerto Rico it will cross north anywhere in the area between Hispaniola and Puerto Rico itself and become a FL coast rider and perhaps make landfall somewhere in the East Coast. As far as it recurving completely out to sea as we have previously seem, the stage will just not be set up for that to happen. Now if it stays as a wave or TD it will tend to continue a more westward movement and become a potential Central Gulf Coast to eastern Gulf Coast threat. Now this bring me to my questions. 1 Will this steering pattern become the norm for the peak of this season? and 2 What posibilities you see of this systems to form if it happen to enter the Caribean dead zone?
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 169
3694. RedrumATL
4:20 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, August 19th, with Video


Great tidbit Levi. Thanks for the update. What percentage would you give this being a Gulf storm?
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
3693. interstatelover7165
4:14 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Next Recon is ~1200z
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
3692. midgulfmom
4:10 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


GOM got some GO GO Juice in it or sure!


Ut Oh! You mean this? YIKES!

Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
3691. wxhatt
4:02 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting whepton3:


Morning Reed... just an observation... but still the thing that bugs me is that over and over from model to model we saw that S FL and up the SEUS track... and it makes me think that the sudden gulf tracks look like outliers...

I heard some last night suggest the TX scenario might have been some sort of anomalous run.


Yes, model swings will occur this far out. An East Coast storm is definitely in the mix!
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 893
3690. HurricaneHunterJoe
3:59 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
LATEST SST LEVEL FOR AUG 19 12Z



GOM got some GO GO Juice in it or sure!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5172
3689. midgulfmom
3:58 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting midgulfmom:
Morning All. Been lurking. If I remember correctly. A local met said high in Atlantic moving westward as is a high currently over Texas/SW LA and it could send more storms next week into the Carribean.
Sorry forgot to mention point being that a wider area of the Gulf Coast could be vunerable to a hit....
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
3688. AllStar17
3:58 PM GMT on August 19, 2011






Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5302
3687. seabreeze97
3:57 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Why is it I can see some posts and not others.
Member Since: July 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
3686. HurricaneHunterJoe
3:52 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Beware August they say. The most dreaded of all beasts comes forward. The dreaded Cape Verde Hurricanes,who spell DOOM to all in it's way.

Seems 97L forecast track eerily similar to the track of the fictional Hurricane Ella,from John D McDonalds fictional book Condominium, about real-estate and of course Hurricane Ella,who tracked thru Northern Leeward Islands,South of P.R.,D.R/Haiti, Cuba and made the turn north in response to a trof to her NW,and finally a landfall on Floridas west coast 40 miles south of Tampa.

Excellent book/read,a must read prior to the start of hurricane season!!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5172
3685. midgulfmom
3:48 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting BradentonBrew:


I think there is a high over LA/TEX/Western Gulf with a front coming down through Ark/Tenn that precludes a northern gulf hit, IIRC. I think any action into the GOMEX takes a right hand turn, sparing NOLA.
Morning All. Been lurking. If I remember correctly. A local met said high in Atlantic moving westward as is a high currently over Texas/SW LA and it could send more storms next week into the Carribean.
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
3684. MahFL
3:46 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
It looks like on visible, 97L is forming some inflow banding. It's obviously spinning of course.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3388
3683. Abacosurf
3:45 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, August 19th, with Video


Brilliant as always Levi!!

Thanks!

Is there any thought that it stays south and misses the trough altogether?? I suppose the stronger the storm the chance of that happening decreases. TIA
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 293
3682. MtnWX10
3:45 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, August 19th, with Video


Excellent analysis! Thank you for clarifying current tropical discussions.
Member Since: October 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
3681. Bluestorm5
3:41 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Sigh, apparently I'm on ignore list... what did I do wrong?

Anyway, when the first recon into 97L?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7913
3680. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:35 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
ALL MODELS ARE MEANT TO BE USED FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY AND DONOT DEPICT FINAL OUTCOME TO ANY ONE SINGLE EVENT THINGS CAN AND WILL CHANGE
STAY TUNED TO LOCAL FORECASTS OFFICES AND NHC/TPC FOR OFFICIAL ADVICE REGARDING EVENTS DEPICTED ON MODELS AND GUDIANCE FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
3678. BobinTampa
3:34 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting HCW:


He said Emily was headed for FL so I am not sure how he nailed that one :)


Emily was headed to Florida......at some point.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
3677. atmoaggie
3:34 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
new blog
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
3676. islander101010
3:33 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting donna1960ruled:
Emily will go down in history as 2462nd worst storm of all time.
helped break e cen fl.'s drought though how about "mvp storm"
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4377
3675. dfwstormwatch
3:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting AegirsGal:
Good Morning! Blog is just cruising along at 100 mph. Every time I refresh, there is a new page of comments. Slow Down!!! LOL I only thought I was a speed reader.
well it should slow down a bit now considering the 12z gfs is up to 12 hours now
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 842
3674. Levi32
3:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, August 19th, with Video
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26569
3673. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting AegirsGal:
Good Morning! Blog is just cruising along at 100 mph. Every time I refresh, there is a new page of comments. Slow Down!!! LOL I only thought I was a speed reader.


The blog is going very slow today compared to what it can when there is a hurricane affecting the USA.

Talk about fast.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31608
3672. atmoaggie
3:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
DO NOT let 97L into the Gulf!

Hard to fathom that it won't be in the gulf, at some point...

As much as I'd take a recurve out to sea, just doesn't seem likely.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
3671. TampaSpin
3:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2011



Not much change in the HOLE SHOT for 97L......DANG!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
3670. AegirsGal
3:30 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Good Morning! Blog is just cruising along at 100 mph. Every time I refresh, there is a new page of comments. Slow Down!!! LOL I only thought I was a speed reader.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
3669. MississippiWx
3:30 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
The big swing in the OP runs of the GFS/Euro are due to the large trof being depicted over the Great Lakes in the 8-10 day period. This is an extreme shift considering the 8-10 day 500mb mean of the Euro/GFS had been showing higher than normal heights across the Great Lakes the previous runs. Biting off on any one solution is not smart at this point because of the extreme shifts.


00z:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
3668. HuracanKY
3:29 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting kmanislander:
97L looks to be centered near 13.5 N and 50.2 W although this is probably a little to the West of the projected position from the last official set.


Hey Kman. I'm raising an eyebrow with 97L and agree with what you said early about its entry into the Caribbean. I have to wonder just when the anticipated WNW movement wil begin and still think the models may be move farther south.

I don't like these systems that enter the Eastern Caribbean around 15N and commence a WNW movement, as anything coming from our South-East can be trouble.
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
3667. BradentonBrew
3:29 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting alvarig1263:
\

Just my opinion but this is my track and cone for 97L.


I think there is a high over LA/TEX/Western Gulf with a front coming down through Ark/Tenn that precludes a northern gulf hit, IIRC. I think any action into the GOMEX takes a right hand turn, sparing NOLA.
Member Since: June 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
3666. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:29 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
LATEST SST LEVEL FOR AUG 19 12Z

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
3664. dfwstormwatch
3:28 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
608 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FEW
CU IN THE AFTERNOON AND FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 7 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011/
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT
ONCE AGAIN PLAGUING NORTH TEXAS. TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH 850 TEMPS OF 27-28C SUPPORTING SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 105-108F
RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. DEWPOINTS
WILL MIX OUT INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES...BUT WITH THE HOT
TEMPERATURES...HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 TO 108 DEGREES CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TOMORROW...DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WIND COMPONENT...DEW POINTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER WHICH WILL STILL
SUPPORT 105 TO 108 HEAT INDICES DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT CONFIGURATION TO THE HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS
PERFECT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE
PRODUCT.

THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST OF THE REGION. THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS...BUT THE ECMWF
IS NOT AS IMPRESSED AS IT HAS BEEN REGARDING THE 500 HEIGHTS FALLS
OVER NORTH TEXAS. IF THE ECMWF WERE TO VERIFY...NORTH TEXAS WOULD
BE UNDER VERY WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH REALLY WOULDNT BE
FAVORABLE FOR RAIN CHANCES/COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE GFS LOOKS TO BE THE SAME
SOLUTION IT HAS BEEN SHOWING WITH DECENT NORTHERLY FLOW AT 500 MB
WITH A TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE SE CONUS. THIS WOULD SEND A WEAK
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTH TEXAS AND PERHAPS LOW RAIN
CHANCES BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THE PLACEMENT
OF THIS TROUGH IS FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS COULD
SIGNAL A SHIFT OR TREND IN THE OUTPUT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT COULD BE INFLUENCED BY ALL OF THIS
IS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED MORE THAN 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. MEDIUM-RANGE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM WITH A TRACK RANGING FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST
TO THE EAST COAST OF THE US AROUND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ANY
POTENTIAL TRACK WOULD BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH AND EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO CLOSELY
WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COMPUTER MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE A
HARD TIME FORECASTING A POTENTIAL TRACK/INTENSITY OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM AS IT STILL HASNT DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND ANY
POTENTIAL LANDFALL LOCATION PROGGED BY A MODEL RUN SHOULD BE TAKEN
WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

85/NH

&&


Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 842
3663. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:28 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
DO NOT let 97L into the Gulf!

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31608
3662. Vincent4989
3:28 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
can't find HH data with Google Earth.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
3661. HCW
3:28 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting reedzone:


I completely agree with him, he also nailed Emilys track. I just don't see this entering the Gulf as of now, things may change though. However we saw the EURO switch back to an East Coast storm this morning.


He said Emily was headed for FL so I am not sure how he nailed that one :)
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1408
3660. islander101010
3:27 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
still a chance it goes out to sea especially if it develops into a depression by tomorrow sorry p.rico
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4377
3659. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:27 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting Vincent4989:
No More Fernanda: NHC didn't mention it in their advisory.


It is in the Central Pacific now. After you go to the Eastern Pacific basin on the NHC site, there is an area you can click that links you to the CPHC.

Fernanda is barely a tropical storm, 40 MPH.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31608
3658. SouthALWX
3:27 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
As I stated yesterday the, texas solution appeared to be a truncation issue with the GFS. The trough doesnt get lost in resolution this go around and the model seems to be trending toward the N to NE GoM. For the past 4 days I've stated that if I had to choose a target city it would be Panama City Beach FL and I see no reason to change that as of now. The spaghetti plots are still all over the place and it's still anybody's ballgame. I would recommend that we not focus on the operational GFS, instead look at the Means and Spreads of the various modeling output. Alot alot alot could still happen, but an east coast strike is appearing to be the least likely landfall event at this time.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
3657. KennyNebraska
3:27 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting kshipre1:
a very simple question.... when is the trough supposed to dip down and when does the high build in?


The further out models suggest that the trough is going to flatten out and not dip down.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
3656. MississippiWx
3:27 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
It's really difficult to say that 97L will never be in the Gulf. The operational runs have had some wild swings the past 2 days, but the ensembles have been fairly consistent with their averages.

00z Euro Ensembles:



6z GFS Ensembles:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
3655. fishcop
3:26 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Wow. That's not very nice to wake up to. Come on dry air!
Member Since: September 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
3654. SAINTHURRIFAN
3:26 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Reed you just because I live on the gulf coast I assure you i dont want this thing.But I think you got to admit this eeast coast gulfcoast common predictions over the last 2 years has been well off.These models have contiously over estimated the strength of these systems.In closing all of these systems tha t approach the carrib. have been flying.You no betterthan I that its much more diificult for them to organize or go poleward when they do that.But if you keep trying hard and get this to the east coast, you are going to have a lot mad folks at you lol.I will keep hoping it stays weak and goes away from the gulf coast lol.I will keep my skin that way lol .Good day.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706
3653. ecflweatherfan
3:25 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



ECMWF is very similar. Just think the turn will be sooner rather than later ATM.



Interesting weakness in the OH/TN valleys at that point in time with strong trough over the Hudson Bay... if that pans out, then the likelihood is that it (97L) will not get past 84W before it turns north, then NNE up the west coast of FL.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
3652. kshipre1
3:25 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
a very simple question.... when is the trough supposed to dip down and when does the high build in?

let's see this in comparision to where 97L will be at that point

models seem to agree a trough is coming down. I think Rob Lightbown from Crown Weather a week back was saying (similar to Levi) that a building High westward could happen sometime around the 26th or 27th of this month or a few days after. interestingly enough that is when possible Irene could hit

feel free to chime in because this is getting interesting

Also, I saw the updated models that Patrap put up. suprisingly most of the models show this going over Hispanola compared to yesterday. Do the models show this system ramping up quicker than expected?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
3651. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:25 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting Patrap:


I have never really understood those images.

Maybe you can explain?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31608
3650. hurricane23
3:25 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting reedzone:
I really don't see this going in the Gulf right now.


Hmmm... If was to make a call with the euro ensembles in the gulf right now i'd say the 12z run shifts back west into gulf.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13640
3649. 7544
3:25 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
hi everyone looks like the slow down has speeded up no its only 5 days if fla is in play for 97l moving faster
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6707
3648. Vincent4989
3:24 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
No More Fernanda: NHC didn't mention it in their advisory.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
3647. Patrap
3:24 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
3646. whepton3
3:24 PM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting reedzone:


I completely agree with him, he also nailed Emilys track. I just don't see this entering the Gulf as of now, things may change though. However we saw the EURO switch back to an East Coast storm this morning.


Morning Reed... just an observation... but still the thing that bugs me is that over and over from model to model we saw that S FL and up the SEUS track... and it makes me think that the sudden gulf tracks look like outliers...

I heard some last night suggest the TX scenario might have been some sort of anomalous run.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645

Viewing: 3696 - 3646

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.