Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting P451:
28 hr IR Loop



You see that wave in central Africa don't you? That is by far the most well defined wave so far this season, and it is still on land!

VERY strong vorticity.
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Quoting ReefMaster:

I fully expect a passage across Corozal Bay!


I agree with that actually. That is why I believe that harvey will have to be watched for potential to become a hurricane. He will have some time over the BOC.
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3294. IKE
00Z CMC @ 144 hours....


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3293. scott39
presslord, It definitely helps the Economy. I was a District manager of a chain of restaurants , back when Georges hit the N Gulf Coast. As a District from Pascagula Ms. over to the Fl/Al line. We were up 25% in sales the first year after Georges,and this was collectively as a whole. This gave jobs to people from all around the country. Yes, people made money unfourtunately from death and destruction....but this was mother nature not man. My family suffered a great loss of a loved one, due to hurricane Rita. Maybe some of you have lost loved ones due to the destruction of a hurricane. Our loved ones would want us to rebuild our communities, not only for money but to give the residents that are left....hope.
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Quoting wolftribe2009:
Is anyone concerned that "Harvey" might become a Hurricane once he is over the BOC? I seem to think there will be a chance for him to do so.


He may not enter the Bay of Campeche, but if he does, its highly unlikely.

We will have to watch it while it is in this area, the TCHP supports rapid intensification, and its pulling away from land.

Pray for the people in the Yucatan that it doesnt.
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3289. ncstorm


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Is anyone concerned that "Harvey" might become a Hurricane once he is over the BOC? I seem to think there will be a chance for him to do so.
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Quoting wolftribe2009:
I am leaning on a LANDFALL near Belize City (However, I think it will probably be just north in the Bay Area)

I fully expect a passage across Corozal Bay!
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My predictions:

TD #8: Harvey at 11AM, eventual peak at 45/50 mph or stronger.

97L: 40% or 50% at 2PM, Tropical Depression Sunday.

98L: 60% at 2PM, Tropical Depression Sunday.
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TD 8 is traveling to the NW at 7mph
Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 915
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


but in the end everyone could still be poorer


Just another way redistribute the wealth..


Dividing wealth doesn't multiply it.


It does for some!
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HH just passed the center showing TD 8 jumped to the NW since the last run and the presure dropping 0.4 mb
Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 915
Good morning.

A busy weekend ahead for the blog it seems.

97L appears to be committed to a track to the W for longer than the models are forecasting and an entry into the Caribbean near 16 N is not out of the question IMO. The shallow and middle layer steering forecast is due West all the way to 75 / 80 W through Sunday and if this verifies then 97L is unlikely to turn to the WNW before entering the Caribbean.

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3280. ncstorm
Day 7 Sea Level Pressures and Fronts from the HPC

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3279. Patrap
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sat images looking good for TD8. I expect a Tropical Storm at 11AM but certainly by 5 PM
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Quoting presslord:


a bit extreme...but actually solid economic theory...destruction leads to creation...it is the way of things...


You may want to do a quick read of the "broken window fallacy".
I know you are a smart guy, press; it kills me to see you posting mis-information. :)
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3275. Patrap
97L WV

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Quoting weatherjr:
I do not believe Invest 93 is now a TD. NHC put that this way for people in it pass to take some rain into account. BUT that is NOT a tropical depression. Common sense says that.


dude!,puhleezeee!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
3273. ncstorm


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3272. ncstorm
HPC Extended Discussion

IN THE TROPICS...STILL MONITORING ANY NEW OBSERVATIONAL AND/OR
MODEL TRENDS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE CARIBBEAN. FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS
WITH AN EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS AGREED UPON BY
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH THE MODELS AGREEING THAT THE WAVE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
REACHES CUBA AROUND DAY 6/THU. BASED ON THE LATEST COORDINATION
CALL WITH THE NHC FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...WILL USE THE SAME
POINTS THEN EXTRAPOLATE NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR FLORIDA FOR THE NEW
DAY 7 POINT. STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO CONSIDER WITH THIS SYSTEM
INCLUDING A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRACKS ALONG WITH ANY TERRAIN
INTERACTION IF THE WAVE TRACKS OVER ANY OF THE LARGER ISLANDS IN
THE CARIBBEAN.

JAMES
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I am leaning on a LANDFALL near Belize City (However, I think it will probably be just north in the Bay Area)
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI






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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Morning All.

97L down another MB

AL, 97, 2011081906, , BEST, 0, 135N, 442W, 25, 1007,

Clear blue skies at the center though.


Better than that, even; down to 1006:

AL, 97, 2011081912, , BEST, 0, 135N, 473W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 190, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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Quoting ncstorm:




I agree with a track towards Belize and I have been stating for the past 72 hours that the storm would go north of Nicaragua and Honduras. Just north by 40 miles now.
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3262. Grothar
When we walked to the beach in Ft.Lauderdale yesterday, the surf temperature was 92. Of course there were a lot of people in the water, so it could have raised the temperature a bit.

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Morning All.

97L down another MB

AL, 97, 2011081906, , BEST, 0, 135N, 442W, 25, 1007,

Clear blue skies at the center though.

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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



These ideas taken to their conclusion..

Lets' destroy everything. That way we'll all be better off as we rebuild it.





a bit extreme...but actually solid economic theory...destruction leads to creation...it is the way of things...
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3258. Patrap
Tax cuts are NOT required in your Hurricane Prep Kit,

Ciao,


UK,, N America...


we'll be dancing in da street's



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Quoting dan77539:


Forgive my parochialism, but Ike as at Cat 2 was an extremely large storm that brought 100 mph winds over a very large area. And the storm surge was extremely large for a Cat 2 hurricane.


You are correct, and I agree.
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Quoting Patrap:


Last US Hurricane Strike was Ike Sept 08,,


Experience Hurricane Ike
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3255. WxLogic
I still believe this is the track for TD#8:



Old image which I posted yesterday but I feel Central Belize would be the main target based on the steering and Heights in the area.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
Quoting alvarig1263:


Wilma actually, as a CAT. 3 on October 25, 2005 if we're talking major hurricane that is. But yes Ike was the last hurricane below major hurricane status.


Forgive my parochialism, but Ike as at Cat 2 was an extremely large storm that brought 100 mph winds over a very large area. And the storm surge was extremely large for a Cat 2 hurricane.
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3253. ncstorm
what keeps coming to mind is Joplin, MO for me..after the tornado struck and they kept getting those tornado warnings and how people really didnt have anywhere to go for shelter..with possible back to back systems for islands and possible conus, where would people go for shelter? we could be looking at building cities/towns from scratch..just something to think about this morning..
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Quoting Neapolitan:
No one--well, no adult in his or her right mind, anyway--wants a storm or other natural disaster to come calling. But when looked at strictly as a local or regional economic stimulus, there simply are no equals to the amount of cash that pours in. Look at Greensburg, or Joplin, or Tuscaloosa...

A few years back, the New York Times did an article on the effect.


exactly...do i want a hurricane to strike Charleston? no, not really...what would a possitive outcome be? my hub is an electrical contractor, tho not really suffering in the economy we are not rich either...we make it day to day...however, if a storm hit here, he could put a dozen guys to work just fixing over head services...that is 12 guys that have been laid off over the last year from other companies that shut down...he could put them to work for weeks if not months just repairing overhead services...that economically would do a lot...then add in any rebuild, repair, rewire, etc...the fact is disaster causes bad and good...God implemented these things to happen, no man...it is not our choice where and when they happen, they just do...
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Quoting Neapolitan:
No one--well, no adult in his or her right mind, anyway--wants a storm or other natural disaster to come calling. But when looked at strictly as a local or regional economic stimulus, there simply are no equals to the amount of cash that pours in. Look at Greensburg, or Joplin, or Tuscaloosa...

A few years back, the New York Times did an article on the effect.


yup
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Goodness...CV season is upon us, huh? *lifts coffee to toast any trough or ridge that feels like helping us out this year*
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3247. Patrap
If your using the SSS to describe a Impact,, your a Phool in the rain as LZ wrote
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:


but in the end everyone could still be poorer


Just another way redistribute the wealth..


Dividing wealth does'nt multiply it.


The wealth, of course, is in the form of all the insurance premiums that people have been paying for years. The insurance industry makes the loss.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.