Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Abacosurf:
You can always use milk jugs too....


you can use milk jugs to keep a freezer colder but the water is not potable...if you use juice, tea, etc, they can be washed and the water can be drank after it thaws...milk jugs are great for leaving in there but not for drinking after. you can't get all the protiens out of the jug and chance getting sick from spoiled protiens...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Don't get any closer to this, don't get any closer to this.

If 97 takes the southern track it will go over a lot of fuel.
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97L is about to get a nice WARM UP!
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Quoting presslord:


I'm familiar with the Glazier's Fallacy...just don't necessarily agree with it in this case...and I appreciate the compliment...but, respectfully, a difference in opinion or outlook hardly constitutes 'misinformation'....


The misinformation part was half-joke: see smiley. The proponents of one major economic theory ALWAYS see the other side as crackpots.

Just make sure the parable is seen in its correct context...its talking about wealth INVENTORY, not production.

Please don't think I'm insulting you, just differing MINOR viewpoint discussion, not an argument! :)
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Latest Flight level winds do support a TS, a very borderline one..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24163
Major hurricane south of Louisiana on 8/29. Hmmm...That sounds familiar.

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GFS 12z shows a nasty storm SW of Tampa Bay at 204 hours from now!

Link
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NICE.........for sure this won't happen.......CORRECT?
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
I think i am going to take full advantage of my ice maker this year...gonna empty it every chance i get into gallon zip lock bags and put em in my big freezer...if a storm doesn't hit here...i got em for fishing and camping...if one does...i have lots of ice...and also gonna start saving the juice jugs from the preschool...fill em, freeze em...here is a tidbit i did learn tho about meat in your freezer...if you know a storm is emminent in your area...take one day and cook all the meat then refreeze...cooked meat will last longer than raw meat...and if you loose power, you may not have means to cook the food... that is just an FYI
You can always use milk jugs too....
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
In the past several hurricanes have passed over South Florida without losing a whole lot of strength. After cleaning my pool this morning I think I know why. That water was about 92 degrees. Looking around, dang near everyone has a pool...so I'm thinking the hurricanes have tapped into the vast fuel provided by all of our swimming pools. Of course, the upwelling brings that 88 degree water in the deep end up to the surface, so they can't stay over South Florida for too long! ;-)
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Flight level winds:
38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph)

SFMR:
35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph)

35.0 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
Tropical Storm
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24163
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning.

A busy weekend ahead for the blog it seems.

97L appears to be committed to a track to the W for longer than the models are forecasting and an entry into the Caribbean near 16 N is not out of the question IMO. The shallow and middle layer steering forecast is due West all the way to 75 / 80 W through Sunday and if this verifies then 97L is unlikely to turn to the WNW before entering the Caribbean.


Good Morning Kman - it certainly need watching.
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Quoting scott39:
Is the enviroment any different in the Caribbean, compared to all that have passed through there this season thus far?


Conditions are still pretty much the same as when 93L went through there except for a little more moisture. What is going to be really important is whether 97L beomes a TD before 63W. If it does then the atmospheric conditions are not that adverse to prevent intensification because the TCHP will provide the fuel for it build enough convection to isolate the core from any lingering dry air.

93L was too weak and disorganized to fight off the dry air until yesterday. 97L looks like it will not have the same problem.

Have to go now.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Last night I said the 00 Z GFS could come back as far east as the FL panhandle, as a SWAG.

LOL.



06z GFS did go into the FL panhandle though..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24163
Quoting presslord:


a bit extreme...but actually solid economic theory...destruction leads to creation...it is the way of things...


In no way is that "solid economic theory"

Its actually called the broken window fallacy.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:
the SAL is pulling back from 97Lthis morning and the area around 97L IS BECOMING MORE MOIST AND COVECTION is starting to fire off at 49W..the islands will definitely have to keep and eye on this it may strengthen at least to a strong TC before hitting the islands..it will take a more northerly component now and bring PUERTO RICO DOM REP AND HAITI INTO THE MIX by SUNDAY..
2
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4723
Not another Katrina....

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Quoting presslord:
well....thanks to y'all for some interesting conversation....I am off to lie on the beach and ogle girls in bikinis...who, alas, probably view me as Daddy....but, fortunately, not yet Grandaddy...


lol...yep...edisto for us in about 3 hours...gone for the weekend and i am taking my bikini... :P
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LINK

Click Trop. Pts.

TD #8 is north of the tropical points.
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Very impressive wave coming off of Africa!!! Tropics heating up now! Only August 19th and we're already close to having Harvey, Irene, and Jose!
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Quoting kmanislander:


I haven't read back this morning but 97L is closing in on 50W very quickly and when you take into account the present steering, the fact that it has not yet been classified and that it is unlikely to become a TD before 55 to 60W at the soonest then entry into the Caribbean more South than North of the average track forecast seems to me to be above 60% in terms of probability.



Agree Kman.......the Southern Track is a now the most likely track for 97L!!!!! I just don't see it going north and not tracking south of Pureto Rico and into the Caribbean......Now the interaction of DR and Cuba could really be the key as to how strong it may become.
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well....thanks to y'all for some interesting conversation....I am off to lie on the beach and ogle girls in bikinis...who, alas, probably view me as Daddy....but, fortunately, not yet Grandaddy...
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Tropical Depression 8 looks like it is moving WNW:

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Quoting Grothar:
When we walked to the beach in Ft.Lauderdale yesterday, the surf temperature was 92. Of course there were a lot of people in the water, so it could have raised the temperature a bit.



That's why I don't swim with kids.

TD8's IR sat presentation loooking good this morning and its rate of expansion (at the cold cloud top level at least) is finally increasing exponentially. Given that the HH relocated the center further offshore which adds to its chances of strengthening, I would not be surprised at a tendancy to move further north, with a Northern Belize landfall.
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Quoting wolftribe2009:


97L (Irene) will probably get close to that.


Would be interesting to see which invest turns into Irene... 98L looks like a TS
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Quoting scott39:
presslord, It definitely helps the Economy. I was a District manager of a chain of restaurants , back when Georges hit the N Gulf Coast. As a District from Pascagula Ms. over to the Fl/Al line. We were up 25% in sales the first year after Georges,and this was collectively as a whole. This gave jobs to people from all around the country. Yes, people made money unfourtunately from death and destruction....but this was mother nature not man. My family suffered a great loss of a loved one, due to hurricane Rita. Maybe some of you have lost loved ones due to the destruction of a hurricane. Our loved ones would want us to rebuild our communities, not only for money but to give the residents that are left....hope.


I'm not discounting the emotional benefits of resurrection and improvement to local populations..., but...

Since you are part of a larger, and possibly regional or national corporation, you were blessed with deeper pockets to rebuild/maintain after the destruction and name recognition for people outside of their normal day to day routines; I would EXPECT to see good numbers in YOUR books.

What about the less fortunate proprietors of your competition? Does your correlation absolutely lead to causation for the local economy as a whole? What about loss of choice and diversity of local eateries? Is this valueless?
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Quoting presslord:


a bit extreme...but actually solid economic theory...destruction leads to creation...it is the way of things...
The problem is the Insurance Companys DO NOT WANT TO PAY!!!
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3315. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:


I haven't read back this morning but 97L is closing in on 50W very quickly and when you take into account the present steering, the fact that it has not yet been classified and that it is unlikely to become a TD before 55 to 60W at the soonest then entry into the Caribbean more South than North of the average track forecast seems to me to be above 60% in terms of probability.
Is the enviroment any different in the Caribbean, compared to all that have passed through there this season thus far?
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Will return later
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3311. hydrus
Quoting P451:


It looks very strong. We're probably looking at multiple storm development now.

The wave over Africa is vicious.....Probably cat-1 already...jk..:)
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Quoting wolftribe2009:


I agree with that actually. That is why I believe that harvey will have to be watched for potential to become a hurricane. He will have some time over the BOC.


I'm sure you mean the Gulf of Honduras. The BOC refers to the Bay of Campeche which is west of the Yucatan peninsula in the Gulf of Mexico.
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Last night I said the 00 Z GFS could come back as far east as the FL panhandle, as a SWAG.

LOL.

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Hey ike dont ou think this thing if it develops has a lot of eerriee similariies to georges.Hell the extended model track is almost the same.They did not pin point Georges to the ms coast till about 60 hrs out.About the same time they shifted the track for Katrina.So the popsition of that through hpc in 7 days this will be well in the gulf by then.Like Kman said its headed to the carib.if it does not slow down it might just beat that throff all together and smack the yuc.
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Quoting stoormfury:
kman your thinking of 97L is exacltly what i posted earlier


I haven't read back this morning but 97L is closing in on 50W very quickly and when you take into account the present steering, the fact that it has not yet been classified and that it is unlikely to become a TD before 55 to 60W at the soonest then entry into the Caribbean more South than North of the average track forecast seems to me to be above 60% in terms of probability.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Don't get any closer to this, don't get any closer to this.



97L (Irene) will probably get close to that.
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97L is fighting off the Dry Air very well as the spin is getting tighter and much better as seen above.
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I think 97L is going to be further south than the models are sating. They keep trying to take it over PR but I am having a hard time believing that it will not be further west and south of PR.
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Don't get any closer to this, don't get any closer to this.

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Quoting Neapolitan:

Better than that, even; down to 1006:

AL, 97, 2011081912, , BEST, 0, 135N, 473W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 190, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,



Relocated up closer to the convection as well... Thanks for the updated coords.
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Quoting seminolesfan:


You may want to do a quick read of the "broken window fallacy".
I know you are a smart guy, press; it kills me to see you posting mis-information. :)


I'm familiar with the Glazier's Fallacy...just don't necessarily agree with it in this case...and I appreciate the compliment...but, respectfully, a difference in opinion or outlook hardly constitutes 'misinformation'....
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kman your thinking of 97L is exacltly what i posted earlier
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Quoting P451:
28 hr IR Loop



You see that wave in central Africa don't you? That is by far the most well defined wave so far this season, and it is still on land!

VERY strong vorticity.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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