Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
A bit like Ike to be honest.
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Quoting HCW:
First Model runs for 97L from the NHC



LBAR FTW!
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97L

WV

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting reedzone:


Morning Cyberteddy,

These models are in very good agreement with a storm that hasn't even formed. Even the EURO is in line with the GFS on location... I predict the 12Z GFS to take 97L up the East Coast of Florida. What's ur thoughts on all of this?


Its possible, but they're still pretty far out to track atm.
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Waiting on all the Info and graphics to come out on 97L to get on the Website..........Its coming just hold on.........:)
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
97L

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


The upper level low is predicted to propagate out according to the models, enough so to actually provide ventilation to the system.


Morning Cyberteddy,

These models are in very good agreement with a storm that hasn't even formed. Even the EURO is in line with the GFS on location... I predict the 12Z GFS to take 97L up the East Coast of Florida. What's ur thoughts on all of this?
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Here in Barbados it's overcast and the thunder is making a joyful noise
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats not where it is but where its going

hmm well in that case I say it need to be further N and a bit E
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
Thanks xtreme. Appreciate the info link.
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yikes! not to sound crazy and worried to early, but that means a higher chance of a westward track towards the florida peninsula?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
83. HCW
First Model runs for 97L from the NHC

Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
18/1145 UTC 15.8N 78.7W T2.0/2.0 93L -- Atlantic
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Well, I got burned yesterday around this time making the statement that I thought 93L could be closed. Today, I'm not going to make that statement and just let recon find out what's happening.

However, I will say that 93L is pretty close to being a TD/Weak TS. The SE portion of the circulation might be open still. We'll see.



Looks like Pre-Don. :)
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Quoting yesterway:


Reedzone,

Since you seem to have a burden for people to be prepared how about giving us all advice on what being prepared involves. Thanks.


Making sure ur sticked with food and water, batteries, making sure you keep tabs very closely on 97L.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


that where you have it is way too far west
thats not where it is but where its going
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
Morning. *rubs eyes*
Anyone got the landfall pressure for the lastest model run on 97L?
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Quoting kshipre1:
the upper level low above puerto rico may disrupt future Irene.... one can only hope

the other thing that comes to my mind is that how strong or not strong this storm could get

too much dry air then wind shear at the end

I hope I am not wrong but somehow I do not see this getting worse than a Category 1

if I am really wrong or sound weird feel free to chime in and laugh :)


The upper level low is predicted to propagate out according to the models, enough so to actually provide ventilation to the system.
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Instability, anyone?



Some nice thunder, too.
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New Orleans? Wow! That is a major potential change from Florida

not sure how it could get to New Orleans
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
New blog is always a good thing when things are heating up. morning floodman, pat, usaf, and others
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Quoting DewyCheatum:
Any flights scheduled for 93L?


yes it took of a while ago now located 154mi south of santo domingo flying WSW
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
yup, you are correct. I have a feeling the models are not budging due to a global consensus on a westward building ridge

Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
943

WHXX01 KWBC 181512

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1512 UTC THU AUG 18 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110818 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110818 1200 110819 0000 110819 1200 110820 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.5N 37.9W 14.0N 40.8W 14.6N 44.6W 15.7N 49.0W

BAMD 13.5N 37.9W 14.1N 40.9W 14.8N 44.4W 15.6N 48.0W

BAMM 13.5N 37.9W 14.1N 40.8W 14.9N 44.5W 16.0N 48.7W

LBAR 13.5N 37.9W 14.0N 40.6W 14.7N 43.7W 15.8N 46.8W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110820 1200 110821 1200 110822 1200 110823 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.7N 53.8W 18.9N 62.9W 19.9N 70.6W 19.4N 76.2W

BAMD 16.4N 51.6W 18.4N 58.3W 20.2N 63.1W 22.0N 66.6W

BAMM 17.1N 53.1W 19.3N 61.5W 20.7N 68.8W 20.8N 74.6W

LBAR 16.6N 50.1W 18.1N 56.2W 18.9N 60.9W 18.1N 53.6W

SHIP 51KTS 68KTS 77KTS 80KTS

DSHP 51KTS 68KTS 77KTS 80KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 37.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 35.6W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT

LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 33.5W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
Quoting reedzone:
Late next week... That is just about a week from now.. No matter what you all say about models being unreliable, even though most models are in agreements of a Southeast USA hit, a week is not really that far away and people from Florida to NC need to be closely watching this storm and making sure ur prepared.


Reedzone,

Since you seem to have a burden for people to be prepared how about giving us all advice on what being prepared involves. Thanks.
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Quoting DewyCheatum:
Any flights scheduled for 93L?


Check the NHC Home page, left side, Aircraft RECON
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting DewyCheatum:
Any flights scheduled for 93L?

in there ATM.

Time: 15:19:00Z
Coordinates: 16.0833N 70.4333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.3 mb (~ 11.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,737 meters (~ 25,384 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 419 meters (~ 1,375 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 351 at 9 knots (From the N at ~ 10.3 mph)
Air Temp: -18.0C (~ -0.4F)
Dew Pt: -25.2C (~ -13.4F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
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Quoting reedzone:


Yeah, even the EURO is consistent.. Everyone on the Southeast Coastline should no longer take this is as a funny model mayhem.. This is reality, the invest, while not fully developed yet, is already good in organization and once it clears 55W, this should really start to get going.


Will definitely keep a close eye on it here in VA. Don't need another Floyd, Fran or Isabel.

Have you ever seen models be this consistent this far out on a storm that hasn't fully developed?
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reed,

right now I would say that Florida is more at risk than the carolinas but you are correct in what you are saying

I just have a hard time seeing how this thing (unless there is a weak or semi strong trough) could curve up and go to the Carolinas with the High that will be sitting right on the east coast steering the storm into the Bahamas and Florida.

Then again, the storm could stay weak and go further south and enter the caribbean. any thoughts?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
62. 7544
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

I agree the 6Z runs this morning were almost like looking at the same model over and over its eery almost!!!


agree for 3 days in a row they dont budge lol
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
As of the last observation at 15:19:00Z, the plane's...

Direction of Travel: WSW (242°)
Location: 170 miles (273 km) to the SSW (192°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Recon Location...
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Wave coming off the African coast looks ominous...
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Quoting cloudburst2011:


it will next week you will have a cool front move down...the high will pull back west to the 4 corners area...be patient


Yeah. I know I sound like a broken record. Sorry. :)
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Any flights scheduled for 93L?
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57. 7544
is 97l getting a llc hmmmm ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
Quoting tropicfreak:


Reed, it's very unusual to have models in agreement and consistent this far out, you never see this.

I agree the 6Z runs this morning were almost like looking at the same model over and over its eery almost!!!
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Reed, it's very unusual to have models in agreement and consistent this far out, you never see this.


Yeah, even the EURO is consistent.. Everyone on the Southeast Coastline should no longer take this is as a funny model mayhem.. This is reality, the invest, while not fully developed yet, is already good in organization and once it clears 55W, this should really start to get going.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Well, I got burned yesterday around this time making the statement that I thought 93L could be closed. Today, I'm not going to make that statement and just let recon find out what's happening.

However, I will say that 93L is pretty close to being a TD/Weak TS. The SE portion of the circulation might be open still. We'll see.

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the upper level low above puerto rico may disrupt future Irene.... one can only hope

the other thing that comes to my mind is that how strong or not strong this storm could get

too much dry air then wind shear at the end

I hope I am not wrong but somehow I do not see this getting worse than a Category 1

if I am really wrong or sound weird feel free to chime in and laugh :)
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
51. 7544
no speghitti models yet ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
Quoting reedzone:
Late next week... That is just about a week from now.. No matter what you all say about models being unreliable, even though most models are in agreements of a Southeast USA hit, a week is not really that far away and people from Florida to NC need to be closely watching this storm and making sure ur prepared.


Reed, it's very unusual to have models in agreement and consistent this far out, you never see this.
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2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.A.
0XL93/INV/XX
16.06N/81.23W


that where you have it is way too far west
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
Wow... after F5ing it for 1/2 an hour, I turn my attention for 15 minutes and voila!

Thanks for the new blog, Doc.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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