Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Best looking wave so far this season emerging from Africa.

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I know some people mentioned about a waterspout being spotted off Carolina Beach. One of my facebook friends posted this pic of it.

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Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Quoting yesterway:


First aid kit, flashlight and batteries, radio and batteries, milk jugs full of water, canned food, can opener, important papers, medicine, full tank of gas in car and generator, Mossberg 500, .38 special.......

Have I left anything out?

Fix-a-Flat, replacement roll of bug screen, bug spray and a battery operated fan
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Time: 15:29:00Z
Coordinates: 15.7833N 71.3333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.6 mb (~ 11.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,736 meters (~ 25,381 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 419 meters (~ 1,375 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 15° at 8 knots (From the NNE at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp: -17.8°C (~ -0.0°F)
Dew Pt: -20.7°C (~ -5.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 11 knots (~ 12.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -


Time: 15:39:00Z
Coordinates: 15.45N 72.2167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.6 mb (~ 11.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,734 meters (~ 25,374 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 419 meters (~ 1,375 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 20° at 9 knots (From the NNE at ~ 10.3 mph)
Air Temp: -18.0°C (~ -0.4°F)
Dew Pt: -30.1°C (~ -22.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
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Quoting TampaSpin:
PLEASE don't get too overly excited yet with 97L........The models will change, I HOPE!


I'm with you there!
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reed,

do you really think a lot will be made out of this system? especially with all the dry air out there?
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quoting
44. reedzone 3:20 PM GMT on August 18, 2011 +0
Late next week... That is just about a week from now.. No matter what you all say about models being unreliable, even though most models are in agreements of a Southeast USA hit, a week is not really that far away and people from Florida to NC need to be closely watching this storm and making sure ur prepared

PLEASE!!! id like to see you getting right once but you ALWAYS say USA will be hit and never (thanks god )it happen!!!
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PLEASE don't get too overly excited yet with 97L........The models will change, I HOPE!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Unusual to see early models so tightly clustered.

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Quoting MississippiWx:


Exactly. A lot of people are discounting the Central/Eastern Gulf just because the model runs have consistently shown Florida/Georgia/South Carolina. The 8-10 day 500mb mean from the EURO/GFS is very worrisome for the Central Gulf Coast to South Carolina/North Carolina as the weakness could be in between all of those areas.





First model runs anticipating this system had it going right between MS AL border. It can go either way due to the fact that this is not even well defined yet, but the scenario is setting for a more westward landfall and I got the feeling that it will be another Mississippi event. I don't know if this was related to this but I saw some emergency equipment and fema trailers being parked on Hwy 90 in Ocean Springs MS. I'm sure we are not the only people observing this, but I'm sure that with so much uncertainty no one would get caught telling the public yet.
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Quoting FtMyersgal:

how about some cash?



I'll take the left overs!.........hehehehehe
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Quoting FtMyersgal:

how about some cash?


Very good point...thank you!
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

NEW 00Z/18 ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW BETTER THAN AVERAGE CLUSTERING NEXT THU/FRI...DAYS 7-8...ON A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS FL.


Again, a very unusual thing here.. A good agreement on the location of 97L at the end of the forecast points. This again, should not be taking lightly.
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Quoting HCW:


What's with the southward curve at the end of some of those models?
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Quoting yesterway:


First aid kit, flashlight and batteries, radio and batteries, milk jugs full of water, canned food, can opener, important papers, medicine, full tank of gas in car and generator, Mossberg 500, .38 special.......

Have I left anything out?

how about some cash?
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not good
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Hurricane Preparation 2011
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Dry air aloft

img src="">
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ANY DOUBT where the COC is.........DAM!!! WOW
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Another wave worth tracking?
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Beer and more beer

and more beer, and maybe a few beef steaks, BBQ fuel.
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ok, thanks

hopefully things change but too much model consensus on florida right now
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yes.. Fresca.


Looting kit and 15 pounds of dry ice...don't wanna run out of Frescas and gotta keep them cold.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Thus a further west track could be anticipated...


Exactly. A lot of people are discounting the Central/Eastern Gulf just because the model runs have consistently shown Florida/Georgia/South Carolina. The 8-10 day 500mb mean from the EURO/GFS is very worrisome for the Central Gulf Coast to South Carolina/North Carolina as the weakness could be in between all of those areas.



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Quoting yesterway:


First aid kit, flashlight and batteries, radio and batteries, milk jugs full of water, canned food, can opener, important papers, medicine, full tank of gas in car and generator, Mossberg 500, .38 special.......

Have I left anything out?


You got it!
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118. HCW
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HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

NEW 00Z/18 ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW BETTER THAN AVERAGE CLUSTERING NEXT THU/FRI...DAYS 7-8...ON A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS FL.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11213
Quoting yesterway:


First aid kit, flashlight and batteries, radio and batteries, milk jugs full of water, canned food, can opener, important papers, medicine, full tank of gas in car and generator, Mossberg 500, .38 special.......

Have I left anything out?

Beer and more beer
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54358
Quoting P451:


93L burned a lot of folks opinions on it's future dating all the way back to when it first emerged off of Africa.

Every new thundershower brought a new wave of opinions that the system was poised to take off and yet it never did.

It has finally organized just as the smallest handful of knowledgeable folks pointed out long ago that it would.

It's a lessen to be learned is all.
Think it was kman yesterday who summarized 93L as the ultimate tease... lol
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Quoting yesterway:


First aid kit, flashlight and batteries, radio and batteries, milk jugs full of water, canned food, can opener, important papers, medicine, full tank of gas in car and generator, Mossberg 500, .38 special.......

Have I left anything out?


Yes.. Fresca.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24171
Quoting HCW:
First Model runs for 97L from the NHC



I personally like the BAMS...going along smoothly...realizes that it needs to hit Jamaica really quick, then makes a U-turn and heads back north. Just needed to make sure to hit all the big islands down there!
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Here is the BAM Models
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107. xcool
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Quoting reedzone:


Making sure ur sticked with food and water, batteries, making sure you keep tabs very closely on 97L.


First aid kit, flashlight and batteries, radio and batteries, milk jugs full of water, canned food, can opener, important papers, medicine, full tank of gas in car and generator, Mossberg 500, .38 special.......

Have I left anything out?
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Quoting kshipre1:
New Orleans? Wow! That is a major potential change from Florida

not sure how it could get to New Orleans


GFS has shown a range of SW Louisiana to up the East Coast for what is now 97L. The recent trend has been either side of Florida, but I think Ensembles still show the more westward solution sometimes.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


in there ATM.

Time: 15:19:00Z
Coordinates: 16.0833N 70.4333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.3 mb (~ 11.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,737 meters (~ 25,384 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 419 meters (~ 1,375 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 351� at 9 knots (From the N at ~ 10.3 mph)
Air Temp: -18.0�C (~ -0.4�F)
Dew Pt: -25.2�C (~ -13.4�F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -


Time: 15:29:00Z
Coordinates: 15.7833N 71.3333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.6 mb (~ 11.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,736 meters (~ 25,381 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 419 meters (~ 1,375 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 15° at 8 knots (From the NNE at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp: -17.8°C (~ -0.0°F)
Dew Pt: -20.7°C (~ -5.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 11 knots (~ 12.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
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GFS Day 9

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just in case anyone wants to know

latest ice coverage northern hemisphere as of mon aug 15
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54358
reedzone,

can you please explain why you think this will go up the east coast of florida and not across the state?

is there something that is going to start curving north and eastward?

I ask because of the High that is supposed to steer this thing westward, thanks
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Quoting reedzone:


Making sure ur sticked with food and water, batteries, making sure you keep tabs very closely on 97L.


What about Cheetos? Are those not on the list anymore?
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The persistent track shown by the GFS should not be taken lightly, but knowing what 97L does beyond PR/Hispaniola is up for grabs. The fact that models have been way too far east at the onset of the storms coming from Africa should throw up a red flag.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
A bit like Ike to be honest.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.