Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Carolina Beach waterspout/tornado.
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Experimental FIM has shown the central Gulf solution on some of its runs.

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Quoting BahaHurican:
I just want to go off topic long enough to say that we have a few [and I do mean few, no matter how much they appear to post] bloggers here whose determined purpose it is to destroy. How do you know who they are?

1. They don't contribute to the discussion of the weather. Not a picture, not an explanation, nothing.

2. They are constantly talking about other bloggers, calling other bloggers names, or posting simple, negativistic comments [every storm will be a cat5 that hits /insert place name/ or every storm will be a bust].

3. They use their plus and minus keys to target people they don't like or who hinder their agenda. Sometimes they make multiple handles so they can get rid of somebody they don't like.

4. They are rarely open to reason, concede nothing, and view opposers as enemies. They never "agree to disagree". They are never wrong, and never admit to being wrong.

Two examples of bloggers who are NOT these people: atmoaggie and Neapolitan. These two come from very, remarkably different perspectives, but they both make real, cogent, and valuable contributions to the blog life.

Can I encourage the real, sane, and weather-focused people on this blog NOT to allow the blog to be hijacked by these blog terrorists? Use your keys wisely and well. Keep ad hominem attacks to a minimum. Talk about weather more than anything else.

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Quoting MississippiWx:
This pattern change is very worrisome because eventually a storm is going to be steered all the way through the Caribbean and it has loads of energy to use. A hurricane that made it through the Yucatan Channel with optimal upper level conditions would be worst case scenario for Gulf Coast states:



The TCHP in the Caribbean this year appears as bad or worse than the TCHP in 2005.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Well whether it hits NC or VA, we will still be affected.

Storms that hit the carolinas normally affect us here in VA.


True, although the reference is to likely landfall locations.

A storm hitting anywhere in the eastern half of the GOM has, based on history, a decent chance of hitting Virginia. If I am not mistaken, Camille gave them a lot of rain.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting BahaHurican:
Agreed, but I want to see what happens at 55W first. We've seen 3 systems get to that area, blow up nice, but not be able to pull everything together. I'm thinking the environment will have changed enough by Sat to give 97L a chance, but I want to see it first.

[Said while doublechecking hurricane plan... :o)]


Tru, but models have backed off on those storms... Even before they blew up but never organized much. 97L though, models continue to develop and keep it strong. It's something to really watch next week. If it does hit the USA, it will be a week from now.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Here's my wish, 93L plows WNW goes thru the Florida Straits and continues WNW in the GOM towards TX as a 70mph storm bringing widespread 20 inches of rain


I live south of Houston, and a direct hit from a 70 mph storm would cause widespread power outages - not something that I want in 100+ degree heat. How about a 50mph TS with lots of rain?
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hello. thanks for your input and you make a good point.

yes, historically, models flip flop a lot and there is a good chance it may miss Florida but the thing is that I have not seen in a long time (even though the system has not formed yet and models are unreliable) the global agreement continuously over time

normally, for a few hours, they all will point to one central location then change

here, they keep on specifying the same thing

anyhow... yes, they could change. just noting the consistency
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This pattern change is very worrisome because eventually a storm is going to be steered all the way through the Caribbean and it has loads of energy to use. A hurricane that made it through the Yucatan Channel with optimal upper level conditions would be worst case scenario for Gulf Coast states:

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Quoting TampaSpin:
I hope all the graphics come out soon.........i got some Bucs vs. Patriots tailgating planned this evening.....you know what will take presidence first now i hope.........LOL


I will be at that game too!
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186. wpb
Quoting Matt74:
Exactly! I'll believe we have a storm when one actually forms.
AGREE
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In other news, a low-end moderate quake offshore western Canada:

Region: QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
Geographic coordinates: 51.652N, 130.740W
Magnitude: 4.5 Mb
Depth: 10 km
Universal Time (UTC): 18 Aug 2011 15:35:45
Time near the Epicenter: 18 Aug 2011 08:35:45
Local standard time in your area: 18 Aug 2011 09:35:45
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting AussieStorm:

Time: 15:49:00Z
Coordinates: 15.1167N 73.1W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.3 mb (~ 11.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,742 meters (~ 25,400 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 420 meters (~ 1,378 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 42° at 7 knots (From the NE at ~ 8.0 mph)
Air Temp: -17.5°C (~ 0.5°F)
Dew Pt: -26.6°C (~ -15.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -

Time: 15:59:00Z
Coordinates: 15.05N 74.05W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.6 mb (~ 11.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,730 meters (~ 25,361 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 418 meters (~ 1,371 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 71° at 12 knots (From the ENE at ~ 13.8 mph)
Air Temp: -17.0°C (~ 1.4°F)
Dew Pt: -28.0°C (~ -18.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 12 knots (~ 13.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
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Quoting reedzone:


Yeah, even the EURO is consistent.. Everyone on the Southeast Coastline should no longer take this is as a funny model mayhem.. This is reality, the invest, while not fully developed yet, is already good in organization and once it clears 55W, this should really start to get going.
Agreed, but I want to see what happens at 55W first. We've seen 3 systems get to that area, blow up nice, but not be able to pull everything together. I'm thinking the environment will have changed enough by Sat to give 97L a chance, but I want to see it first.

[Said while doublechecking hurricane plan... :o)]
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Hahaha.......lay off you.......i didn't CAP everything.......LOL.......hey brother.


Woopsie lol.
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where is Levi? can't wait to see his analysis
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Quoting kshipre1:
I am with you both on that

maybe this is an inference we have to make but my guess is the models are so tightly clustered because they ALL agree a deep layered ridge could be firmly in place

unfortunatley that could mean a straight WNW jog right smack into Florida

I hope not!


From this far out the fact that the models are aimed right at Florida is a good thing for Florida. The probability of this system being unaffected over hundreds of miles and weather are slim to none.It's when they are pointed away from you and re-curve into you that I get concerned. Take a look at historical tracks and the majority of Florida storms did not come straight in.
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Quoting angiest:


I still think probably as far west as the middle Texas coast is in the super long-term risk area at this time, based on those charts. Look how far west the ridge is parked. I might go as far north as almost Virginia as well, but probably the NC/SC border area is a more solid northern extent.


Well whether it hits NC or VA, we will still be affected.

Storms that hit the carolinas normally affect us here in VA.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I just want to go off topic long enough to say that we have a few [and I do mean few, no matter how much they appear to post] bloggers here whose determined purpose it is to destroy. How do you know who they are?

1. They don't contribute to the discussion of the weather. Not a picture, not an explanation, nothing.

2. They are constantly talking about other bloggers, calling other bloggers names, or posting simple, negativistic comments [every storm will be a cat5 that hits /insert place name/ or every storm will be a bust].

3. They use their plus and minus keys to target people they don't like or who hinder their agenda. Sometimes they make multiple handles so they can get rid of somebody they don't like.

4. They are rarely open to reason, concede nothing, and view opposers as enemies. They never "agree to disagree". They are never wrong, and never admit to being wrong.

Two examples of bloggers who are NOT these people: atmoaggie and Neapolitan. These two come from very, remarkably different perspectives, but they both make real, cogent, and valuable contributions to the blog life.

Can I encourage the real, sane, and weather-focused people on this blog NOT to allow the blog to be hijacked by these blog terrorists? Use your keys wisely and well. Keep ad hominem attacks to a minimum. Talk about weather more than anything else.



ding ding ding winner winner chicken dinner!

we sure have had some fairly even rainfall amounts last week across most of south florida
Link


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023

WHXX04 KWBC 181151

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L



INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 18



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 15.2 78.1 280./14.9

6 15.7 79.3 290./12.6

12 15.9 80.6 281./12.6

18 16.0 81.7 274./10.3

24 16.2 82.6 283./ 9.5

30 16.3 83.3 277./ 6.7

36 16.7 83.8 307./ 5.7

42 16.9 84.3 290./ 5.1

48 17.3 85.3 292./10.3

54 17.8 86.2 298./10.0

60 18.2 87.1 296./ 9.3

66 18.4 87.9 285./ 8.3

72 18.7 89.3 281./13.2

78 19.1 90.8 288./15.2

84 19.6 91.6 299./ 9.0

90 19.5 92.6 266./ 9.6

96 19.4 93.6 263./ 9.5

102 19.5 94.5 280./ 7.8

108 19.6 94.8 279./ 2.9

114 19.4 95.1 237./ 4.1

120 19.0 95.1 169./ 3.2

126 18.8 95.0 156./ 2.2


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Quoting BahaHurican:
I just want to go off topic long enough to say that we have a few [and I do mean few, no matter how much they appear to post] bloggers here whose determined purpose it is to destroy. How do you know who they are?

1. They don't contribute to the discussion of the weather. Not a picture, not an explanation, nothing.

2. They are constantly talking about other bloggers, calling other bloggers names, or posting simple, negativistic comments [every storm will be a cat5 that hits /insert place name/ or every storm will be a bust].

3. They use their plus and minus keys to target people they don't like or who hinder their agenda. Sometimes they make multiple handles so they can get rid of somebody they don't like.

4. They are rarely open to reason, concede nothing, and view opposers as enemies. They never "agree to disagree". They are never wrong, and never admit to being wrong.

Two examples of bloggers who are NOT these people: atmoaggie and Neapolitan. These two come from very, remarkably different perspectives, but they both make real, cogent, and valuable contributions to the blog life.

Can I encourage the real, sane, and weather-focused people on this blog NOT to allow the blog to be hijacked by these blog terrorists? Use your keys wisely and well. Keep ad hominem attacks to a minimum. Talk about weather more than anything else.



You can't be possibly talking about me?
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Quoting hahaguy:


Sure like to use caps huh lol.



Hahaha.......lay off you.......i didn't CAP everything.......LOL.......hey brother.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting RitaEvac:
97L is liable to go into central America and waste everybody's time worrying and model watching of something that may just screw around and never even become more than another weak tropical storm to add to the record list of no hurricanes
Exactly! I'll believe we have a storm when one actually forms.
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Interesting that some of the early models (BAM) suggest a south of west movement towards the end of the period. I assume this would be in response to a building high?
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154. MississippiWx 3:54 PM GMT on August 18, 2011 +0
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


First model runs anticipating this system had it going right between MS AL border. It can go either way due to the fact that this is not even well defined yet, but the scenario is setting for a more westward landfall and I got the feeling that it will be another Mississippi event. I don't know if this was related to this but I saw some emergency equipment and fema trailers being parked on Hwy 90 in Ocean Springs MS. I'm sure we are not the only people observing this, but I'm sure that with so much uncertainty no one would get caught telling the public yet.


this FEMA move is related to the flood in july.
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Here is something to remember, just because there is model consistency now doesn't mean that won't change. 97L is definitely something to watch because of model agreement on taking it into the U.S. but still not something even close to worry about yet.


Before we think about it actually coming this way, it might want to attempt mustering convection that is at least half the strength of afternoon sea breeze storms in Florida. It has yet to come close to give me impressions of system that will become a hurricane.

However, all strong hurricanes have humble beginnings. So we will just have to watch it. But as of now, its too lame to be anything more than just something interesting to watch and track.

One thing to note though, models are trending more on tropical systems heading closer to the Southeast. Hopefully that will be short lived trend, hopefully that will not continue as we go into September.
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Toliet Paper....LOTS OF IT..you might wanna tepppie your neighbor if your house is still standing.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting MississippiWx:


Exactly. A lot of people are discounting the Central/Eastern Gulf just because the model runs have consistently shown Florida/Georgia/South Carolina. The 8-10 day 500mb mean from the EURO/GFS is very worrisome for the Central Gulf Coast to South Carolina/North Carolina as the weakness could be in between all of those areas.





I still think probably as far west as the middle Texas coast is in the super long-term risk area at this time, based on those charts. Look how far west the ridge is parked. I might go as far north as almost Virginia as well, but probably the NC/SC border area is a more solid northern extent.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
I just want to go off topic long enough to say that we have a few [and I do mean few, no matter how much they appear to post] bloggers here whose determined purpose it is to destroy. How do you know who they are?

1. They don't contribute to the discussion of the weather. Not a picture, not an explanation, nothing.

2. They are constantly talking about other bloggers, calling other bloggers names, or posting simple, negativistic comments [every storm will be a cat5 that hits /insert place name/ or every storm will be a bust].

3. They use their plus and minus keys to target people they don't like or who hinder their agenda. Sometimes they make multiple handles so they can get rid of somebody they don't like.

4. They are rarely open to reason, concede nothing, and view opposers as enemies. They never "agree to disagree". They are never wrong, and never admit to being wrong.

Two examples of bloggers who are NOT these people: atmoaggie and Neapolitan. These two come from very, remarkably different perspectives, but they both make real, cogent, and valuable contributions to the blog life.

Can I encourage the real, sane, and weather-focused people on this blog NOT to allow the blog to be hijacked by these blog terrorists? Use your keys wisely and well. Keep ad hominem attacks to a minimum. Talk about weather more than anything else.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting YouCaneDoIt:
Does anyone know when the intensity models for 97L will start to come out?


943

WHXX01 KWBC 181512

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1512 UTC THU AUG 18 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110818 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110818 1200 110819 0000 110819 1200 110820 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.5N 37.9W 14.0N 40.8W 14.6N 44.6W 15.7N 49.0W

BAMD 13.5N 37.9W 14.1N 40.9W 14.8N 44.4W 15.6N 48.0W

BAMM 13.5N 37.9W 14.1N 40.8W 14.9N 44.5W 16.0N 48.7W

LBAR 13.5N 37.9W 14.0N 40.6W 14.7N 43.7W 15.8N 46.8W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110820 1200 110821 1200 110822 1200 110823 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.7N 53.8W 18.9N 62.9W 19.9N 70.6W 19.4N 76.2W

BAMD 16.4N 51.6W 18.4N 58.3W 20.2N 63.1W 22.0N 66.6W

BAMM 17.1N 53.1W 19.3N 61.5W 20.7N 68.8W 20.8N 74.6W

LBAR 16.6N 50.1W 18.1N 56.2W 18.9N 60.9W 18.1N 53.6W

SHIP 51KTS 68KTS 77KTS 80KTS

DSHP 51KTS 68KTS 77KTS 80KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 37.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 35.6W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT

LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 33.5W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
I hope all the graphics come out soon.........i got some Bucs vs. Patriots tailgating planned this evening.....you know what will take presidence first now i hope.........LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
We may have trouble brewing off the coast of South Carolina.
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Here's my wish, 93L plows WNW goes thru the Florida Straits and continues WNW in the GOM towards TX as a 70mph storm bringing widespread 20 inches of rain
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Does anyone know when the intensity models for 97L will start to come out?
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Quoting TampaSpin:



YES, its size will imped a quick develper.......but once it tightens up......OH BOY!...its turning a ton of Atmosphere right now.....one can only imiagine the size this might become....


Sure like to use caps huh lol.
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Quoting angiest:


GFS has shown this to be a very large system sometimes (remember the monster that stretched from east Houston all the way to Alabama?). That may be believable. Of course, its current size *may* slow development as well.



YES, its size will imped a quick develper.......but once it tightens up......OH BOY!...its turning a ton of Atmosphere right now.....one can only imiagine the size this might become....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting aussiecold:

quoting
44. reedzone 3:20 PM GMT on August 18, 2011 +0
Late next week... That is just about a week from now.. No matter what you all say about models being unreliable, even though most models are in agreements of a Southeast USA hit, a week is not really that far away and people from Florida to NC need to be closely watching this storm and making sure ur prepared

PLEASE!!! id like to see you getting right once but you ALWAYS say USA will be hit and never (thanks god )it happen!!!


Since when do I forecast USA hits from storms? I never said Emily will definitely hit Florida.. I said Emily has a very slim chance at making a BRIEF landfall in SFL if it continues moving westward. It was close.. Please don't put words in my mouth.
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I am with you both on that

maybe this is an inference we have to make but my guess is the models are so tightly clustered because they ALL agree a deep layered ridge could be firmly in place

unfortunatley that could mean a straight WNW jog right smack into Florida

I hope not!
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Quoting RitaEvac:
97L is liable to go into central America and waste everybody's time worrying and model watching of something that may just screw around and never even become more than another weak tropical storm to add to the record list of no hurricanes
But...but... it'll strike land and people live there.
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156. xcool
VALID 12Z MON AUG 22 2011 - 12Z THU AUG 25 2011

UPDATED PRELIM SURFACE PROGS KEPT THE SAME BASIC IDEAS AS THE
EARLY PRELIM BUT ATTEMPTED TO SHOW BETTER DEFINITION OF
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL ZONES/TROFS. 500MB GRAPHICS SUBSTITUTED
THE NEW 00Z/18 ECENS MEAN FOR THE OLDER 12Z/18 MEAN USED IN THE
EARLY PRELIMS. NEW 00Z/18 ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW BETTER
THAN AVERAGE CLUSTERING NEXT THU/FRI...DAYS 7-8...ON A POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS FL. THE
ESSENCE OF THE EARLY PRELIM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW.
HPC
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:


First model runs anticipating this system had it going right between MS AL border. It can go either way due to the fact that this is not even well defined yet, but the scenario is setting for a more westward landfall and I got the feeling that it will be another Mississippi event. I don't know if this was related to this but I saw some emergency equipment and fema trailers being parked on Hwy 90 in Ocean Springs MS. I'm sure we are not the only people observing this, but I'm sure that with so much uncertainty no one would get caught telling the public yet.


Well, it's possible...I wouldn't put it going any farther east than New Orleans. However, the Eastern Gulf Coast states are probably the most threatened by this (when just speaking of Gulf States). However, like I said on the last page, models have been way too far east at the onset with these waves and that makes things very tricky as we move out in time.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Time: 15:39:00Z
Coordinates: 15.45N 72.2167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.6 mb (~ 11.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,734 meters (~ 25,374 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 419 meters (~ 1,375 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 20° at 9 knots (From the NNE at ~ 10.3 mph)
Air Temp: -18.0°C (~ -0.4°F)
Dew Pt: -30.1°C (~ -22.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -

Time: 15:49:00Z
Coordinates: 15.1167N 73.1W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.3 mb (~ 11.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,742 meters (~ 25,400 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 420 meters (~ 1,378 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 42° at 7 knots (From the NE at ~ 8.0 mph)
Air Temp: -17.5°C (~ 0.5°F)
Dew Pt: -26.6°C (~ -15.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
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Quoting aprinz1979:


What about Cheetos? Are those not on the list anymore?


Twinkies! The only food(?) that has the possibility to outlast Grothar.
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97L is liable to go into central America and waste everybody's time worrying and model watching of something that may just screw around and never even become more than another weak tropical storm to add to the record list of no hurricanes
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Link

is there low pressure developing in the FL big bend area? storms look like they are following some.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



ANY DOUBT where the COC is.........DAM!!! WOW


GFS has shown this to be a very large system sometimes (remember the monster that stretched from east Houston all the way to Alabama?). That may be believable. Of course, its current size *may* slow development as well.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Where is the recon?
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Best looking wave so far this season emerging from Africa.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26118

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.