Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


On the 850 vort maps, the main "max" travels over the whole island and weakens a pretty good deal.

Im out to 138 hours.


I see what you mean there now.
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Eastern Cuba by 141. Still heading West/WNW.
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I will not get to wrapped up in the eventual landfall based on current models. Once a LLC has formed and hurricane hunter plane has sampled the atmosphere I will feel more comfortable with a more accurate forecast. I am guessing we will see a depression by Sunday. There will be many factors after that effecting the storm such as the ULL Dr. Masters is referring to and possible interaction with land (Haiti is a Tropical System KILLER) Any thoughts?
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Making landfall around Haiti... in this track its large circulation could be the least affected:

@129HR:

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Thank You Dr.......Well put; Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable,

These model runs are basically the "heads up" but no need to sound a Doom alarm yet.
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241. JLPR2
So now, instead of starting to worry at 90hrs, I'm supposed to get worried at 78hrs.
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I'd say there's a pretty decent shot that the HH finds a tropical depression.

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Quoting CaneHunter031472:


This pattern was predicted from the beginning of the season, yet people kept insisting this was a repeat of 2010. I completely disagree with that. This is a very dangerous pattern for the US Especially Florida and the central Gulf Coast. I think the Fish storm parade is about over.
It could get even uglier than your avatar! LOL
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Quoting WxLogic:


In this run is further S... but not quite traversing DR dead on, but actually along the S coast:



On the 850 vort maps, the main "max" travels over the whole island and weakens a pretty good deal.

Im out to 138 hours.
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T.C.F.W.
0XL93/INV/XX
mark
16.06N/81.23W
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


I'm sorry. What should I have said? September and October are going to have 0 storms?


Lol
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One thing is gonna go nuts next week.......LOL
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Hello everyone! Kept quiet up to this point in the season, but it seems Cape Verde season is due to pick up.

Any thoughts on the next two waves coming off Africa? They look pretty impressive in satellite imagery IMUO (in my uneducated opinion)... 97L is the farthest left.

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z GFS has this traversing the whole length of Hispaniola. Looks like it may catch a good deal of Cuba as well. IRL, that would pretty much destroy a system.


Seems more south this run needless to say.


In this run is further S... but not quite traversing DR dead on, but actually along the S coast:

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An experimental long range TC impact would, IMO, resemble something like the Torino Impact Hazard Scale used for asteroid impacts. That is, you could say that a given storm gives no higher risk of impact to an area of coast than the background risk, or higher risk, or very high risk. So, for instance, based on 97L's model runs to date, a large swath of the US coast would possibly warrant a 4 or 5. Most of that area would eventually be changed to a 0, with other areas heading up the scale.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
231. JLPR2
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Doesn't appear much weaker tbh, strong TS.


Yeah, you're right, I guess I was comparing an earlier time frame with a later one.

Making the turn WNW now, seems this run will be very similar to the other runs.

Also, tbh? Had to google that one. xD
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Quoting yesterway:


Jumping to conclusions is not wise. Take it a day at a time and relax.


I'm sorry. What should I have said? September and October are going to have 0 storms?
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Out for a little while. Don't let 93L become a TD/TS while I'm gone. :-D
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228. JRRP
114h
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Quoting IceCoast:
Experimental FIM has shown the central Gulf solution on some of its runs.



that is just a great example of how things will change! enjoy the weekend by preparing your home for what might be!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Doesn't appear much weaker tbh, strong TS.
This is definitely worth a look, check out the powerful wave over Africa..It has a seriously vigorous rotationassociated with it...Link
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12z GFS has this traversing the whole length of Hispaniola. Looks like it may catch a good deal of Cuba as well. IRL, that would pretty much destroy a system.


Seems more south this run needless to say.
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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15704
Hm models got a 91mph hurricane for me ! Not what i need hurricane Richard of last year was enough its someone else turn now.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
This pattern change is very worrisome because eventually a storm is going to be steered all the way through the Caribbean and it has loads of energy to use. A hurricane that made it through the Yucatan Channel with optimal upper level conditions would be worst case scenario for Gulf Coast states:



Especially in October :0.
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Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 539
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


I agree I think September is setting up to be historic for the United States and the Caribbean.


Jumping to conclusions is not wise. Take it a day at a time and relax.
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219. JRRP
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Doesn't appear much weaker tbh, strong TS.

yea looks very strong
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Quoting P451:


I think that was 97L that is modeled in the long range to hit New Orleans as a major. Or Florida. Depends on the run it keeps flipping back and forth.

Of course any models 72 hours and beyond are to be taken with a grain of salt.

As it is many models tried to up 93L to hurricane status within a 72 hour time frame time and again and failed miserably.

So what can you trust really.
IIRC, 93L got dropped because of lack of model support.... so I'm not sure ur comment about them is completely correct.

Also, model runs in the last day or so seem to be keeping 97L over FL, with a turn up the coast or a FL panhandle landfall. I guess the retreat of the TX high is not expected to happen quick enough to allow 97L to get that far west.

However, I'd be a lot more confident about anything we say re Conus landfall once we actually have a TD or TS out there. What I feel pretty sure about is this is going to be another Car tracker. The NE Car is in the 5-day cone now. They're going to get some weather from this, even if only on the tropical showers level. Apart from that, a lot is still up in the air. Literally.
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@99HR SE of DR:

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
can someone give me the link to the ATCF site for Renumbers and Activations of Invests... i lost mine...

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13571
cyberteddy was mentioning earlier that as of now, the ULL is supposed to move away and provide ventalation to the cyclone

cyberteddy, this is correct?
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Quoting angiest:


Hard to judge, by this time in 2005 we had had several storms move through to stir things up. This year, it is largely untapped.
I think it's been untapped for the past three years.
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Quoting JLPR2:
So far a weaker storm, also, slightly to the NE of the last run.


Doesn't appear much weaker tbh, strong TS.
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:


This pattern was predicted from the beginning of the season, yet people kept insisting this was a repeat of 2010. I completely disagree with that. This is a very dangerous pattern for the US Especially Florida and the central Gulf Coast. I think the Fish storm parade is about over.


I agree I think September is setting up to be historic for the United States and the Caribbean.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
can someone give me the link to the ATCF site for Renumbers and Activations of Invests... i lost mine...


Link
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Quoting yesterway:


First aid kit, flashlight and batteries, radio and batteries, milk jugs full of water, canned food, can opener, important papers, medicine, full tank of gas in car and generator, Mossberg 500, .38 special.......

Have I left anything out?


French canned butter, 5 lbs of homemade trail mix, lots of cucumber/green tea baby wipes, leave-in conditioner, disposable plates, cups and utensils, bleach, good vodka and a respectable stash of valium, shrimp boots, chem suit, shelf stable milk, bacon and cheese, WAY more gas and water than you're planning (but I live in NOLA, so it could be a stranded for 30 days on an island situation), did I mention vodka? Can't have too much of that. Table top ice maker (an hour on the generator and we're good for the day with ice), beef jerky, water purification tablets, water filter, lots of hand sanitizer, glucose tablets, gatorade, pedialyte, solar garden lights, tarps, visquene, ropes, boat, ammo...
I feel like I'm forgetting something.
Oh! Charcoal and propane. And cigarettes. And pet food. And more vodka.
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@90HR S of PR:

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Quoting MississippiWx:


I agree to an extent. However, the odds of the models consistently pointing to Florida for 10 straight days is very low. I think all we should take from the models is that an impact to the United States from a significant hurricane is higher than normal.


That definitely remains the major lesson the models have been trying to show us for the last several days.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
207. JLPR2
So far a weaker storm, also, slightly to the NE of the last run.


*Afterwards the model moves it due west while strengthening it.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I just want to go off topic long enough to say that we have a few [and I do mean few, no matter how much they appear to post] bloggers here whose determined purpose it is to destroy. How do you know who they are?

1. They don't contribute to the discussion of the weather. Not a picture, not an explanation, nothing.

2. They are constantly talking about other bloggers, calling other bloggers names, or posting simple, negativistic comments [every storm will be a cat5 that hits /insert place name/ or every storm will be a bust].

3. They use their plus and minus keys to target people they don't like or who hinder their agenda. Sometimes they make multiple handles so they can get rid of somebody they don't like.

4. They are rarely open to reason, concede nothing, and view opposers as enemies. They never "agree to disagree". They are never wrong, and never admit to being wrong.

Two examples of bloggers who are NOT these people: atmoaggie and Neapolitan. These two come from very, remarkably different perspectives, but they both make real, cogent, and valuable contributions to the blog life.

Can I encourage the real, sane, and weather-focused people on this blog NOT to allow the blog to be hijacked by these blog terrorists? Use your keys wisely and well. Keep ad hominem attacks to a minimum. Talk about weather more than anything else.



(oh crud..hit post comment too soon)
Beautifully and elequently said. +1000
Thanks.
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true
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can someone give me the link to the ATCF site for Renumbers and Activations of Invests... i lost mine...
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Quoting MississippiWx:
This pattern change is very worrisome because eventually a storm is going to be steered all the way through the Caribbean and it has loads of energy to use. A hurricane that made it through the Yucatan Channel with optimal upper level conditions would be worst case scenario for Gulf Coast states:



This pattern was predicted from the beginning of the season, yet people kept insisting this was a repeat of 2010. I completely disagree with that. This is a very dangerous pattern for the US Especially Florida and the central Gulf Coast. I think the Fish storm parade is about over.
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Hurricane Greg:
8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 18
Location: 18.5°N 111.5°W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 539
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


The TCHP in the Caribbean this year appears as bad or worse than the TCHP in 2005.


Hard to judge, by this time in 2005 we had had several storms move through to stir things up. This year, it is largely untapped.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Sound like another ULL may spoil the party and destroy 97L (if Haiti doesn't)
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199. JRRP

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Quoting kshipre1:
hello. thanks for your input and you make a good point.

yes, historically, models flip flop a lot and there is a good chance it may miss Florida but the thing is that I have not seen in a long time (even though the system has not formed yet and models are unreliable) the global agreement continuously over time

normally, for a few hours, they all will point to one central location then change

here, they keep on specifying the same thing

anyhow... yes, they could change. just noting the consistency


I agree to an extent. However, the odds of the models consistently pointing to Florida for 10 straight days are very low. I think all we should take from the models is that an impact to the United States from a significant hurricane is higher than normal.
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Quoting HuracanKY:
Interesting that some of the early models (BAM) suggest a south of west movement towards the end of the period. I assume this would be in response to a building high?


Thanks. Was wondering about that.
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Carolina Beach waterspout/tornado.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.