Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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how about that monster coming off the african coast anyone want to take a shot on landfall location and strentgh,I,ll go out on a limb and say the cape verde islands better watch out
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All the joy has just been sucked outta my miserable life....wife just said she wants to go down to the beach with me...
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3393. hotrods
I do not like the looks of ECMWF! Not good! I wish the model runs would just pick a spot and stay with it. But we all no about the back and forth matter.
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3392. alex14
What are you guys talking about, it is more likely 97L will go into the Gulf? With the pattern the way it is the East Coast scenario is much more likely.
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Quoting Abacosurf:
LOL it was a joke tigger.....

But I am still in the camp of being able to USE milk jugs after washing with a TBLSP. of bleach....

But PLEASE.....do not try this at home!!! Leave it to the professionals!


not everyone can wash a milk jug properly...i advise not to...where i work is under scrutiny from DHEC... we are not even allowed to have an empty one on premises...best if laimen follow the rule of freeze it only but don't use it for the milk jug policy... and as far as bleach goes...that rule is fine for some things, however, i wouldn't use more than a tsp per gallon...the tbls per gal is for disinfecting by soaking...just saying...
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3389. ncstorm
Quoting USAFwxguy:


its google, what can you say?..seriously there is no Cape Fear, NC
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Quoting P451:


Do you agree with that individual? I wouldn't.

http://www.capefearcoast.com/


Man, those from the Carolinas are touchy about geographic labels.

THERE IS NO CAPE FEAR ITS WILMINGTON
THERE IS NO CAROLINA COASTLINE IT IS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA


lol...


Yes!!
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Quoting ncstorm:
ECWMF..



OMG!?!?!?

I pray that doesn't happen. It will be awful!
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Quoting TampaSpin:




One thing is for sure its not gonna turn north and out to sea any time soon.


So why do the models show 98L turning NW so early?
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WHO PISSED THE WOMEN OFF?!?!

First for the Male Storms
Ivan 2004
Dennis 2005
Ike 2008
Gustav 2008

Now the Females

Frances 2004
Jeanne 2004
Katrina 2005
Rita 2005
Wilma 2005
Dolly 2008

Will Irene 2011 continue the trend????
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One thing is for sure its not gonna turn north and out to sea any time soon.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Quoting ncstorm:
ECWMF..



Today's 6z gfs at 216 hours. Can't give it much until 120 hrs, but just sayin:
Link
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
Quoting P451:


Yep. But let's not let written history and facts get in the way of a good rant!



lol...Charleston is Charleston, we have like 12 zip codes here...you can put Charleston on the envelope for mailing but the zip can put you in a dozen different subsidiaries...each with their own name... I live West of the Ashley...we call it that...everyone around does...it depicts a PART of Charleston...if you tell someone you are coming here to visit...they will ask you .... oh, what part?
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3380. ncstorm
Quoting tiggeriffic:


another tip is buy powdered milk and hershey's syrup lol...make the milk only as you need it, a little for cooking and you can't tell it is powdered, and for the kids, add the hersheys and they wont be able to tell...at least they get some milk that way...


I have never had powdered milk but thanks will keep that in mind..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Quoting tropicfreak:



Oh god a Cat 3 in NC, just what everyone needs.
Quoting ncstorm:
ECWMF..


so we got either Cat. 3 storm going into Gulf of Mexico or going upcoast SE USA... but more likely Gulf of Mexico.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


you can use milk jugs to keep a freezer colder but the water is not potable...if you use juice, tea, etc, they can be washed and the water can be drank after it thaws...milk jugs are great for leaving in there but not for drinking after. you can't get all the protiens out of the jug and chance getting sick from spoiled protiens...
LOL it was a joke tigger.....

But I am still in the camp of being able to USE milk jugs after washing with a TBLSP. of bleach....

But PLEASE.....do not try this at home!!! Leave it to the professionals!
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


another tip is buy powdered milk and hershey's syrup lol...make the milk only as you need it, a little for cooking and you can't tell it is powdered, and for the kids, add the hersheys and they wont be able to tell...at least they get some milk that way...
We buy the boxed milk...brands like Parmalat and Borden's...great to keep in pantry...can pop in the cooler any time.....
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Well I see that the 06z GFS (97L) and it's latest run is bending the yet-to-be developed storm back towards the northeast. . . like many here thought it would. I would not be surprised to see it make a "model run land fall" at some point on So. FL or even back over the East Coast, within the next 3 runs. Then of course move it back west on future runs.

And it's Big Brother "MONGO", is a direct Bermuda hit, if this run was to pan out.
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3375. ncstorm
Quoting P451:


Do you agree with that individual? I wouldn't.

http://www.capefearcoast.com/


Man, those from the Carolinas are touchy about geographic labels.

THERE IS NO CAPE FEAR ITS WILMINGTON
THERE IS NO CAROLINA COASTLINE IT IS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA


lol...


LOL..no I dont consider the Cape fear, NC an actual place, people get confused because we have the Cape Fear River and most people conflict that with the name of our region..I am trying to find an article that I read about a month ago where they were actually trying to name Myrtle Beach, SC as the new Cape Fear, thus Cape Fear, SC..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
going to see strengthening 97 just alittle north in its west course dead eye on the boriquens home
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Would say the recent flight level winds and the Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB would justify an upgrade of 08 from a TD to TS.

AL 08 201108191145 1570N 8360W SAB 2525 /////
AL 08 201108191145 1630N 8350W TAFB 2525 /////
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11211
Quoting ncstorm:
ECWMF..




Oh god a Cat 3 in NC, just what everyone needs.
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Hey is there a hurricane brewing
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Quoting ncstorm:


thanks about the meat tip earlier..I remember after floyd, we ended having to cook all our meat because of no power and it thawing out..also, if you can get your hands on dry ice..that would help in keeping things cold as well..


another tip is buy powdered milk and hershey's syrup lol...make the milk only as you need it, a little for cooking and you can't tell it is powdered, and for the kids, add the hersheys and they wont be able to tell...at least they get some milk that way...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3366. ncstorm
ECWMF..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
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Quoting ncstorm:


I saw someone on a facebook page griping about Cape
Fear, NC..there is no Cape Fear, NC..its only Wilmington, NC
he's correct. Cape Fear is just a name for long river in NC. We in North Carolina prefer to call that area Wilmington or Carolina Beach. Btw, NCstorm, did you see that tornado in Carolina Beach? I hope it's not a omen...
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Looks like 97l is picking up moisture from itcz and spreading it around abit
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3361. ncstorm
Quoting tiggeriffic:


you can use milk jugs to keep a freezer colder but the water is not potable...if you use juice, tea, etc, they can be washed and the water can be drank after it thaws...milk jugs are great for leaving in there but not for drinking after. you can't get all the protiens out of the jug and chance getting sick from spoiled protiens...


thanks about the meat tip earlier..I remember after floyd, we ended having to cook all our meat because of no power and it thawing out..also, if you can get your hands on dry ice..that would help in keeping things cold as well..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Quoting ncstorm:


I saw someone on a facebook page griping about Cape
Fear, NC..there is no Cape Fear, NC..its only Wilmington, NC


the map and wiki disagree....

Link
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Agree Kman.......the Southern Track is a now the most likely track for 97L!!!!! I just don't see it going north and not tracking south of Pureto Rico and into the Caribbean......Now the interaction of DR and Cuba could really be the key as to how strong it may become.
At this rate the only major land mass that may effect 97L will be Jamaica. And then western Cuba perhaps...Yikes.
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Quoting seminolesfan:


The misinformation part was half-joke: see smiley. The proponents of one major economic theory ALWAYS see the other side as crackpots.

Just make sure the parable is seen in its correct context...its talking about wealth INVENTORY, not production.

Please don't think I'm insulting you, just differing MINOR viewpoint discussion, not an argument! :)



all is well, my friend....and, to be clear: I enjoyed the discussion
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3355. ncstorm
Quoting P451:


I was thinking hypercane. Not quite a superhypercane and definitely not yet a superhyperlavadoomicaneofdoom. But we have time for that.

:)

Now what we don't have time for is to wait to pick a landfall spot and demand those people immediately evacuate 1,000 miles away. We must do this with great urgency.

The following people should panic right now while they await the dart board results:

NOLA
South Florida
The deforested mountains of Haiti (The forested ones are safe)
Central Lesser Antilles
Grand Cayman
Cape Fear, NC

Dart board results to be published after consultation with the ECMWF 12Z run. While waiting for draft board results it is encouraged to fill your garbage pails, tubs, and sinks with water and scour your neighborhood for empty milk jugs.

Most importantly, don't forget your Fresca.


I saw someone on a facebook page griping about Cape
Fear, NC..there is no Cape Fear, NC..its only Wilmington, NC
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Quoting wolftribe2009:


No I meant Bay of Campeche. I was talking about the fact that i believe it will emerge over the Bay of Campeche after passing over Belize and the Yuctan. It will be over the water for some time before hitting East Mexico which is why I will be looking for the potential for him to become a CAt 1 Hurricane.
going to be tough for a tiny system
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Major hurricane south of Louisiana on 8/29. Hmmm...That sounds familiar.



Well, for the moment, models are just like paper.... they hold whatever they place in them....
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Fresh obs
Flight level winds:
38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph)

SFMR
40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph)

Reduction factor
37.6 knots (~ 43.2 mph)
Tropical Storm
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24167




The US at BIG risk!
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Not another Katrina....

uh-oh... water in the Gulf is extremely hot right now. Nobody want a system going into the Gulf this time of the year.
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Quoting ReefMaster:


I'm sure you mean the Gulf of Honduras. The BOC refers to the Bay of Campeche which is west of the Yucatan peninsula in the Gulf of Mexico.


No I meant Bay of Campeche. I was talking about the fact that i believe it will emerge over the Bay of Campeche after passing over Belize and the Yuctan. It will be over the water for some time before hitting East Mexico which is why I will be looking for the potential for him to become a CAt 1 Hurricane.
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Quoting Abacosurf:
You can always use milk jugs too....


you can use milk jugs to keep a freezer colder but the water is not potable...if you use juice, tea, etc, they can be washed and the water can be drank after it thaws...milk jugs are great for leaving in there but not for drinking after. you can't get all the protiens out of the jug and chance getting sick from spoiled protiens...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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