Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Try the 250 stream


Ah ok. Thanks I was only seeing part of it on the other model. That makes it a lot more clear. I feel all better now. Like there will be an end to this heat one day. :)
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Lots of discussion here about why some models don't show degradation over mountainous regions of Cuba and Haiti. Does anyone know if the models actually consider terrain, or do they just have 'land' and 'water'? Anyone got a link to a site describing the assumptions the different models make?
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Just a quick ob & q - If 93 gets named Irene, and 97 Jose, we will still need two more storms to get to a "K" a' la '05 (Katrina was end of 08/05 IIRC). And THEN we would need SIX storms in September to get to "Rina" (to match '05s Rita, which I all too WELL remember was the end of 09/05). That's eight storms in 42 days, or an avg of almost one every 5 days. With all the SAL, La Nina, unfavorable winds, HAARP, whatever, it seems a stretch, at least at THIS point, that we will match that year. I'm not saying we won't, or still come close, or that no one should "let their guard down" (obviously!!!) and yes, we should all keep watching and be prepared and all that. I'm just saying, as an aside, that while it still may be busy, I don't think this season will set any max activity records. At least based on what has happened so far and what's modeled to for the next 2-3 weeks.

If (and when) there is a season that runs through the names list, and the NHC starts using greek letters, what happens if say, Alpha or Bravo is of such a nature that it should (or is) retired? Would they retire a greek letter-named storm? I don't see any info on that potentiality on their website (keeping in mind the fact that being so late in the season ((one would assume)), it's not likely such a storm would be of a nature that it would cause enough destruction to be retired to begin with))). Anyone know for sure?
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getting weird now. all I can say is that this is a wait and see approach with how strong 97L gets

too much land interaction would most likely inhibit intensification; however, if it traverses north of hispanola and puerto rico on a WNW track, then Florida could be impacted but I have a feeling the track could change

am not ignoring the models agreement but just sayin
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Quoting wpb:
lots of $$$$$ invested in computer models .
how does it do so poorly with a storm crossing hispoanola/ e cuba and only show
mininmal loss of strength structure.
its ridiculous that reaction is not displayed properly by gfs model. and the model had a complete update this year.


The only reason I believe is acting up that way, is because of the size of it's circulation. It could be large enough to easily relocate to "greener pastures" and continue moving on like a little energizer bunny.
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Looking good so far for 93L.
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340. wpb
Quoting wpb:
lots of $$$$$ invested in computer models .
how does it do so poorly with a storm crossing hispoanola/ e cuba and only show
mininmal loss of strength structure.
its ridiculous that reaction is not displayed properly by gfs model. and the model had a complete update this year.
AGREE
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Quoting AussieStorm:

97L will hit Sydney Australia. LOL


thata work for me, Aussie! Thanks for voluntarying............LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting TampaSpin:
PLEASE there is no reason to pinpoint a city at which you think 97L will be hitting yet.........LOL......if you chose to do so......don't use Tampa as a reference.......JUST SAYN


:) is good to see your reactions sometimes.
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Quoting wpb:
lots of $$$$$ invested in computer models .
how does it do so poorly with a storm crossing hispoanola/ e cuba and only show
mininmal loss of strength structure.
its ridiculous that reaction is not displayed properly by gfs model. and the model had a complete update this year.


+100 The only way that would verify is if it was clipping the islands, but it does not look like that in the run.
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Quoting angiest:


SOmeone mentioned Fay.


Could be setting up that way. I refuse to believe the strength of 97 if it follows the last 2 runs of the GFS. Way too much land interaction to get a 977 storm over Tampa after raking across Hispanola and Cuba. Something ain't jivin' here.
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Quoting aquak9:


Thank you...I am a Jax Native, and proud to call it home.


Absolutely gorgeous and we also drove (real slow) through Kingsley Plantation which I have never seen.....Just an awesome place and lots of Peacocks wandering around too.
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Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 16:42Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 05

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Thursday, 16:40Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 15.0N 78.0W
Location: 222 miles (357 km) to the SSW (201°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,310 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 120° at 11 knots (From the ESE at ~ 12.6 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -17°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -29°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,590 geopotential meters
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Watch this loop of the 12Z GFS and notice how as 97L moves in the Texas ridge (pink colors) retrogrades north westward and leaves!!!


I see it there. Guess I was looking at the other thing wrong. Thanks! :)
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
As was mentioned earlier. The GFS run still seems to be discounting the land interaction and deepening it too much. Also I've looked at many layers of the GFS so far it doesn't show this stupid ridge over us moving at all. I guess I could be looking at it wrong. Sigh


Try the 250 stream
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10873
GFS 06z at 204hrs. this mornings run:




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Looks like Randy is scheduled to fly recon to 97L on Saturday:

Quoting LRandyB:


....My next flight will be Saturday for a possible invest at 56W
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Quoting TampaSpin:
PLEASE there is no reason to pinpoint a city at which you think 97L will be hitting yet.........LOL......if you chose to do so......don't use Tampa as a reference.......JUST SAYN

97L will hit Sydney Australia. LOL
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Quoting fuzed:
So no one talks about the Fernanda storm from what I see. Models seem to take it right near HI, where I am going this weekend. Is it something to worry about or no?

Lately some models depicted on this site's page for it seem to have some longitudinal errors. I don't think its going to follow the longitudinal line North to CA.
Latest models had it as a depression south of HI at the end of the run. You have to check the Central Pacific website now for information, I think.

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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Once you travel a little bit along the Florida and Gulf coast, and see the places and towns in person or get to know the people, you do not wish the fury of a Cane on anyone (and particularly a familiar location). I dropped my Daughter off a Jacksonville airport at 5:00 am today then headed over to the beaches to see the Sunrise and Atlantic ocean. I don't know how to post actual pictures yet but I must tell you, Sunrise at Amelia Island was the most beautiful thing I have seen in a long time as well as all the marshes and bays (and houses on the water) around the St. Johns tributaries and the Mayport Naval Station.

Jax has been "protected" for many years from canes but now that I was there, and say all of the beauty, I would that they continue to be protected for years to come.




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324. wpb
lots of $$$$$ invested in computer models .
how does it do so poorly with a storm crossing hispoanola/ e cuba and only show
mininmal loss of strength structure.
its ridiculous that reaction is not displayed properly by gfs model. and the model had a complete update this year.
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Quoting ncstorm:
The GFS even has it strengthening while over Florida..how is that?


SOmeone mentioned Fay.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Once you travel a little bit along the Florida and Gulf coast, and see the places and towns in person or get to know the people, you do not wish the fury of a Cane on anyone (and particularly a familiar location). I dropped my Daughter off a Jacksonville airport at 5:00 am today then headed over to the beaches to see the Sunrise and Atlantic ocean. I don't know how to post actual pictures yet but I must tell you, Sunrise at Amelia Island was the most beautiful thing I have seen in a long time as well as all the marshes and bays (and houses on the water) around the St. Johns tributaries and the Mayport Naval Station.

Jax has been "protected" for many years from canes but now that I was there, and say all of the beauty, I would that they continue to be protected for years to come.


Thank you...I am a Jax Native, and proud to call it home.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
From previous (in case it was not seen):
Yes, but not yesterday.

On Ubuntu Lucid LTS, but no DirectX. Have to use OpenGL mode (on a server with no dedicated graphics card).

Here is a GE load of the latest Live recon and selecting Fifth Suspect Area, Mission 02 - AF300 and a click on the plane in PR.

(Click for big version)


I finally got it to work, I had to enable safe mode.

And it really makes no sense as to why, but it would never pick up that there was a flight when not using safe mode.

Wish marble supported the kmz files.
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PLEASE there is no reason to pinpoint a city at which you think 97L will be hitting yet.........LOL......if you chose to do so......don't use Tampa as a reference.......JUST SAYN
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Back in from lurk mode last season. 97L worries me just a tetch. It's the first invest this season that looks like it just might make it to Florida. I'll be counting on the real forecasters and ignoring the wish/doom casters equally ;)

I just hope the damn thing holds off till 8/27; that's when I leave to head up to Cumberland, Md for vacation.
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Once you travel a little bit along the Florida and Gulf coast, and see the places and towns in person or get to know the people, you do not wish the fury of a Cane on anyone (and particularly a familiar location). I dropped my Daughter off a Jacksonville airport at 5:00 am today then headed over to the beaches to see the Sunrise and Atlantic ocean. I don't know how to post actual pictures yet but I must tell you, Sunrise at Amelia Island was the most beautiful thing I have seen in a long time as well as all the marshes and bays (and houses on the water) around the St. Johns tributaries and the Mayport Naval Station.

Jax has been "protected" for many years from canes but now that I was there, and say all of the beauty, I would that they continue to be protected for many years to come.
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GFS 00z at 216 hrs. last nights run:


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The GFS even has it strengthening while over Florida..how is that?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14418
HH should be in soon.

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Quoting Chucktown:
Weak steering, lots of land interction, most likely slow movement - could be a Fay repeat.


You think... definitely a slow mover once it attempts to test the High western periphery in an attempt to escape to the NE/E.
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From previous (in case it was not seen):
Quoting angiest:
Does anyone here use Google Earth in Linux to view recon data? I tried yesterday but the recon data never loaded. Models, etc, do work.
Yes, but not yesterday.

On Ubuntu Lucid LTS, but no DirectX. Have to use OpenGL mode (on a server with no dedicated graphics card).

Here is a GE load of the latest Live recon and selecting Fifth Suspect Area, Mission 02 - AF300 and a click on the plane in PR.

(Click for big version)


Update: Yes, is working now.
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Quoting kshipre1:
where is Levi? can't wait to see his analysis

He was up late with us graveyard shifters last night. So maybe a bit later.

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12Z GFS:

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Quoting WxLogic:


I forgot who... could have been you who pointed out last night a Donna track.


I have mentioned it previously, but someone else said it last night. ;)
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Quoting extreme236:
If 97L crosses over all of that land I can't see it being as strong as depicted on the GFS.


That is what I am not understanding as well. If it hits that much land it will be much weaker more likely causing it to get into the eastern GOM. I think the GFS has been pretty consistan as far as track but the intensity has most to do with where the storm will go, and I do not think it is doing well on that.
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HH is almost near 93L
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
As was mentioned earlier. The GFS run still seems to be discounting the land interaction and deepening it too much. Also I've looked at many layers of the GFS so far it doesn't show this stupid ridge over us moving at all. I guess I could be looking at it wrong. Sigh
Watch this loop of the 12Z GFS and notice how as 97L moves in the Texas ridge (pink colors) retrogrades north westward and leaves!!!
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Time: 16:19:00Z
Coordinates: 15.0N 76.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.6 mb (~ 11.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,739 meters (~ 25,390 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 414 meters (~ 1,358 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 81° at 14 knots (From the E at ~ 16.1 mph)
Air Temp: -16.5°C (~ 2.3°F)
Dew Pt: -30.0°C (~ -22.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -


Time: 16:39:00Z
Coordinates: 15.0N 77.9333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.5 mb (~ 11.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,725 meters (~ 25,344 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 409 meters (~ 1,342 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 107° at 9 knots (From the ESE at ~ 10.3 mph)
Air Temp: -17.0°C (~ 1.4°F)
Dew Pt: -29.9°C (~ -21.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
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Quoting wxhatt:

Long Range Forcast Models are very unreliable. A track in the caribbean, does not necessarily point to a gulf or florida storm.



I just watched Henry Margusity on Accuweather and he is predicting a track where it would landfall in the "Carolinas"..he thinks the ECWMF and GFS are too bullish on the western track where it hits florida..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14418
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
can someone give me the link to the ATCF site for Renumbers and Activations of Invests... i lost mine...


Here you go

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/?C=M;O=D


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Quoting reedzone:


Making sure ur sticked with food and water, batteries, making sure you keep tabs very closely on 97L.
I recommend Patrap's blog as a starting point for people who haven't made any real preps at this point. As long as the storm hasn't hit you yet, you still have some time to do stuff. Proactive behaviour if you live in the hurricane zone can bring a measure of peace of mind as well as a better chance of weathering the storm.

Quoting barbados246:
Here in Barbados it's overcast and the thunder is making a joyful noise
We got it going on here, too! lol

Quoting overwash12:
We may have trouble brewing off the coast of South Carolina.
Please... not another one!!!

Quoting reedzone:


You can't be possibly talking about me?
You mean in the list of people who are NOT destroyers??? Of course I mean you! LOL....

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12z GFS, landfall in Tampa. If its a large system, as predicted, it wouldn't be as prone to rapid weakening as say.. Emily. Georges did the same thing, never dropped below TS status.. though this will be weaker than Georges by the time it gets to Haiti.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
Weak steering, lots of land interction, most likely slow movement - could be a Fay repeat.
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Quoting barotropic:


I think you are right about the pattern. It is dangerous, however, it is also rather common. This is what is meant by being careful and aware of a potential hurricanes or a major storm in the last week of August thru mid September. I simply dont look at it like, OMG look at this. Florida went decades without a major hurricane, but plenty of those years featured such a pattern which would have permitted such a storm at some point during the season. The biggest problem with the developing pattern is that it decreases the likely hood of recurvature. Obviously that means if a storm develops, the likelyhood that somebody is going to get hit increases. Alot of things still have to go right for a storm to be a major storm at landfall and some of those things are impossible to forecast so far out.


Very true, but what sets this season apart is 1st the fact that it is expected to be an above average season, and 2nd the fact that all we had so far is weaker system which have not done their job in cooling the waters. So, whatever forms will be big because there is plenty of fuel out there and that makes this pattern even more troublesome.
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299. 7544
gfs still all over fla
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Eastern half of 97L reveals a possible circulation.

Was mostly closed last night.

16:00 UTC
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Quoting angiest:


GFS has been replaying variations of Donna a lot this season. I think it even wanted to have what eventually became Emily to do the same at one point.


I forgot who... could have been you who pointed out last night a Donna track.
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@216HR Tampa landfall:



For 3 runs it has been depicting the Tampa shield being broken.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.