Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:


I forgot who... could have been you who pointed out last night a Donna track.
I did, so did hurricane23, prolly a couple other people as well. Seems like the model runs have been "cherrypicking" the historical database and popping historical tracks on us. So far we've seen Tampa1921, Donna1960, Georges1998, and IIRC SanWhatever1928 [the PR/Bahamas/Okeechobee monster].
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right now models are not long range to the people in the islands..
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Quoting wpb:
lots of $$$$$ invested in computer models .
how does it do so poorly with a storm crossing hispoanola/ e cuba and only show
mininmal loss of strength structure.
its ridiculous that reaction is not displayed properly by gfs model. and the model had a complete update this year.


"Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable,"
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The HH made a turn to the S i wonder what they are up to
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
when harvey forms later this afternoon then irene will be next but we still await harvs arrival but yes if the storm is exceptonaly destructive then the name is retired and replace with another greek word to represent that greek letter

That little day-old spin N of the Yucatan is almost the
size of 93, has moisture inflow from the S and N, and has had better rotation since it was born.
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387. Jax82
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Once you travel a little bit along the Florida and Gulf coast, and see the places and towns in person or get to know the people, you do not wish the fury of a Cane on anyone (and particularly a familiar location). I dropped my Daughter off a Jacksonville airport at 5:00 am today then headed over to the beaches to see the Sunrise and Atlantic ocean. I don't know how to post actual pictures yet but I must tell you, Sunrise at Amelia Island was the most beautiful thing I have seen in a long time as well as all the marshes and bays (and houses on the water) around the St. Johns tributaries and the Mayport Naval Station.

Jax has been "protected" for many years from canes but now that I was there, and say all of the beauty, I would that they continue to be protected for many years to come.


Sunrises are pretty spectacular I agree, and the moonrises when its Full are pretty awesome too. We dont see the frequency like other parts of FL for hurricane landfalls because a hurricane has to basically come straight in from the East to give us a direct hit, and a lot of the times they'll hit futher south, come in from the Gulf or ride up the east coast. My eyes are wide open now as we get into the heart of the season, hopefully nothing big comes our way.
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Please correct me if I am wrong but there is most likely a case of 3 possibilities 1 would be It hits those islands stays pretty week, the high over texas moves out it hits anywhere from Texas to La depending how much the high moves. 2 it hits those islands begins to strengthen once it hits the water and get to a strong TS or Cat 1 allowing it to feel the trough (if there is one) and causes it to move anywhere from the south west coast to the Panhandle of course if it moved to the Panhandle or North Florida it could get strong. 3 It goes north of the islands gets strong and hit South or North Carolina. So yes there is a lot of watching to be done if those are the possibilites.
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, August 18th, with Video
good morning Levi
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Says hello to the east coast to, getting real far out though. 264 Hrs
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watch the time frame of this new invest they have a way of stalling regrouping ext. remember fay
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4732
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
when harvey forms later this afternoon then irene will be next but we still await harvs arrival but yes if the storm is exceptonaly destructive then the name is retired and replace with another greek word to represent that greek letter


My understanding is the Greek letter is "retired" to reference the storm, but is actually still used if needed.
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Quoting FLdewey:


I agree... it's a Tampa storm.

;-)


"Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable,"

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HH Finds 1009.9 MB
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Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, August 18th, with Video
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Time: 16:49:00Z
Coordinates: 15.0N 78.8W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.7 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,198 meters (~ 10,492 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1012.4 mb (~ 29.90 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 170° at 11 knots (From the S at ~ 12.6 mph)
Air Temp: 8.1°C (~ 46.6°F)
Dew Pt: -5.8°C (~ 21.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 11 knots (~ 12.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -

Time: 16:59:00Z
Coordinates: 14.9333N 79.4667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.4 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,579 meters (~ 5,180 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1012.4 mb (~ 29.90 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 165° at 21 knots (From the SSE at ~ 24.1 mph)
Air Temp: 16.2°C (~ 61.2°F)
Dew Pt: 2.4°C (~ 36.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 22 knots (~ 25.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time: 16:49:00Z
Coordinates: 15.0N 78.8W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.7 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,198 meters (~ 10,492 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1012.4 mb (~ 29.90 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 170° at 11 knots (From the S at ~ 12.6 mph)
Air Temp: 8.1°C (~ 46.6°F)
Dew Pt: -5.8°C (~ 21.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 11 knots (~ 12.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


thata work for me, Aussie! Thanks for voluntarying............LOL

Waters are to cold off our coast, and it's spinning the wrong way.
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Quoting aquak9:


Thank you...I am a Jax Native, and proud to call it home.
went to JU from 88 to 92. Enjoyed Jax a ton.

Went back last year and the pier was moved.... to the pavillion area. LOL
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
Quoting synthvol:
Just a quick ob & q - If 93 gets named Irene, and 97 Jose, we will still need two more storms to get to a "K" a' la '05 (Katrina was end of 08/05 IIRC). And THEN we would need SIX storms in September to get to "Rina" (to match '05s Rita, which I all too WELL remember was the end of 09/05). That's eight storms in 42 days, or an avg of almost one every 5 days. With all the SAL, La Nina, unfavorable winds, HAARP, whatever, it seems a stretch, at least at THIS point, that we will match that year. I'm not saying we won't, or still come close, or that no one should "let their guard down" (obviously!!!) and yes, we should all keep watching and be prepared and all that. I'm just saying, as an aside, that while it still may be busy, I don't think this season will set any max activity records. At least based on what has happened so far and what's modeled to for the next 2-3 weeks.

If (and when) there is a season that runs through the names list, and the NHC starts using greek letters, what happens if say, Alpha or Bravo is of such a nature that it should (or is) retired? Would they retire a greek letter-named storm? I don't see any info on that potentiality on their website (keeping in mind the fact that being so late in the season ((one would assume)), it's not likely such a storm would be of a nature that it would cause enough destruction to be retired to begin with))). Anyone know for sure?
when harvey forms later this afternoon then irene will be next but we still await harvs arrival but yes if the storm is exceptonaly destructive then the name is retired and replace with another greek word to represent that greek letter
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Quoting TampaSpin:
PLEASE there is no reason to pinpoint a city at which you think 97L will be hitting yet.........LOL......if you chose to do so......don't use Tampa as a reference.......JUST SAYN


Right now, the entire Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are vulnerable to 97L...

Reading the tea leaves/sheep's entrails/stars to zero in on one particular city at this point is a fool's errand.
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12z NAM FWIW

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Right now.. only areas of interest with 97L are the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico.. Everything else including Hispaniola are too far off.

Lesser Antilles has a 60% chance of TS force winds

Puerto Rico has a 50% chance of TS force winds

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Hispaniola 25% chance of TS winds or higher

Bahamas-Cuba 10% chance

This is just too far away and not developed yet. We dont have a exact path after crossing 15-16N and 60W if this will affect Puerto Rico directly.. or bypass it and how strong it will be. Also Hispaniola is too far off to say it will go over it or just north or south of the big island.
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Quoting wxhatt:


Yes, and what happens with the models often with models that far out, is a shift north and east.


Or south and west (Don).
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Quoting OviedoWatcher:
Lots of discussion here about why some models don't show degradation over mountainous regions of Cuba and Haiti. Does anyone know if the models actually consider terrain, or do they just have 'land' and 'water'? Anyone got a link to a site describing the assumptions the different models make?


GFS
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Quoting ncstorm:


I just watched Henry Margusity on Accuweather and he is predicting a track where it would landfall in the "Carolinas"..he thinks the ECWMF and GFS are too bullish on the western track where it hits florida..


Yes, and what happens with the models often that far out, is a shift north and east.
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Quoting StormHype:


Funny to see people like this talking about landfalls 10 days out when the system isn't even formed yet. Even stormhype wouldn't do this. Tis the season! lol


Where did I say that 'yes, its going to make landfall in Tampa!!!' I was stating what the GFS was showing. I was NOT making a prediction. Last run it had it in a totally different place in Florida.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
Quoting weatherman12345:
guys, when does euro start running?

When it has enough energy to stand up.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
344. 2005 had more unfavorable SAL btw, there was only 1 Cape Verde Hurricane that year, Irene. Lots of systems that formed off Africa where weak. Obviously, we're not going to see 28 named storms.. but we could certainly see 19 again this year.


I agree. 28 really is something close to a once-in-a-century occurance, IMO. But I think this season will really challenge 19.
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Thanks Dr Jeff for the update.

Hi everyone.. been lurking but not posting for awhile..

Going to Orlando tomorrow thru Monday afternoon so please keep these storms away from Florida this weekend. (spending my birthday weekend with Mickey & Friends)

I see, if this next one developes we still have until next week to see where it could go.. if it developes.

I will check back in later this afternoon.

Keep the info coming.
thanks,
Gams
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Quoting angiest:


You agree with yourself?

Mega LOL. Split personality.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z GFS, landfall in Tampa. If its a large system, as predicted, it wouldn't be as prone to rapid weakening as say.. Emily. Georges did the same thing, never dropped below TS status.. though this will be weaker than Georges by the time it gets to Haiti.


Funny to see people like this talking about landfalls 10 days out when the system isn't even formed yet. Even stormhype wouldn't do this. Tis the season! lol
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344. 2005 had more unfavorable SAL btw, there was only 1 Cape Verde Hurricane that year, Irene. Lots of systems that formed off Africa where weak. Obviously, we're not going to see 28 named storms.. but we could certainly see 19 again this year.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
Quoting TampaSpin:
PLEASE there is no reason to pinpoint a city at which you think 97L will be hitting yet.........LOL......if you chose to do so......don't use Tampa as a reference.......JUST SAYN



yes beware ts..coming your way .. lol
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Quoting quakeman55:

Gamma


Did you call me???

ROFL>.. 2005 was a wild ride, who ever thought My handle "gamma" would be a tropical storm name!


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And now GFS 12z - 216hrs. current run:


That is 3 straight runs now that the GFS puts it right on top of Tampa Bay!
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Recon is desending and finding S winds now he needs to find the west winds wich he should. Winds today are from the wsw here in Belize .
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Quoting wpb:
AGREE


You agree with yourself?
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Quoting synthvol:
Just a quick ob & q - If 93 gets named Irene, and 97 Jose, we will still need two more storms to get to a "K" a' la '05 (Katrina was end of 08/05 IIRC). And THEN we would need SIX storms in September to get to "Rina" (to match '05s Rita, which I all too WELL remember was the end of 09/05). That's eight storms in 42 days, or an avg of almost one every 5 days. With all the SAL, La Nina, unfavorable winds, HAARP, whatever, it seems a stretch, at least at THIS point, that we will match that year. I'm not saying we won't, or still come close, or that no one should "let their guard down" (obviously!!!) and yes, we should all keep watching and be prepared and all that. I'm just saying, as an aside, that while it still may be busy, I don't think this season will set any max activity records. At least based on what has happened so far and what's modeled to for the next 2-3 weeks.

If (and when) there is a season that runs through the names list, and the NHC starts using greek letters, what happens if say, Alpha or Bravo is of such a nature that it should (or is) retired? Would they retire a greek letter-named storm? I don't see any info on that potentiality on their website (keeping in mind the fact that being so late in the season ((one would assume)), it's not likely such a storm would be of a nature that it would cause enough destruction to be retired to begin with))). Anyone know for sure?


Immediate problem with your essay. 93L will be Harvey, not Irene, should it develop. So 97L would be Irene.
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Quoting OviedoWatcher:
Lots of discussion here about why some models don't show degradation over mountainous regions of Cuba and Haiti. Does anyone know if the models actually consider terrain, or do they just have 'land' and 'water'? Anyone got a link to a site describing the assumptions the different models make?


They've been able to simulate that for maybe around ten years now.

Its a pretty significant factor.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
GFS 06z at 204hrs. this mornings run:






Let me know if it shows the same in 7 days from now.
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Quoting synthvol:
Just a quick ob & q - If 93 gets named Irene, and 97 Jose, we will still need two more storms to get to a "K" a' la '05 (Katrina was end of 08/05 IIRC). And THEN we would need SIX storms in September to get to "Rina" (to match '05s Rita, which I all too WELL remember was the end of 09/05). That's eight storms in 42 days, or an avg of almost one every 5 days. With all the SAL, La Nina, unfavorable winds, HAARP, whatever, it seems a stretch, at least at THIS point, that we will match that year. I'm not saying we won't, or still come close, or that no one should "let their guard down" (obviously!!!) and yes, we should all keep watching and be prepared and all that. I'm just saying, as an aside, that while it still may be busy, I don't think this season will set any max activity records. At least based on what has happened so far and what's modeled to for the next 2-3 weeks.

If (and when) there is a season that runs through the names list, and the NHC starts using greek letters, what happens if say, Alpha or Bravo is of such a nature that it should (or is) retired? Would they retire a greek letter-named storm? I don't see any info on that potentiality on their website (keeping in mind the fact that being so late in the season ((one would assume)), it's not likely such a storm would be of a nature that it would cause enough destruction to be retired to begin with))). Anyone know for sure?

We haven't had Harvey yet. 93L would become Harvey if it became a TD/TS.
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Recon Findin Southerly winds on East side, half closed so far... have to cross to the west side to determine if we have a closed Circulation...
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Try the 250 stream


Ah ok. Thanks I was only seeing part of it on the other model. That makes it a lot more clear. I feel all better now. Like there will be an end to this heat one day. :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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