Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting odinslightning:
93L just looks like a sputtering 4 cyl. economy car that has a blown head gasket so 2 chambers are not firing.....just can't quite get it going right...lol


So far the theme of the season...
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93L just looks like a sputtering 4 cyl. economy car that has a blown head gasket so 2 chambers are not firing.....just can't quite get it going right...lol
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
I understand how it is kind of a canned answer to state that long-range models are often inaccurate, but there is some value in them. Especially in the case we are looking at now with 97L...

It has managed to work its way down through the out-hours of the GFS, and even though still in the high 200s for CONUS, the fact that it is remained in solution after solution means something. And, the track has remained relatively consistent, with a few outliers perhaps.

Nobody should really be chastised for perking up when they see the kind of modeling coming from the GFS and others, even in the long-range.


Yes indeed! The long range models when used appropriately provide valuable information. They are best used projecting the overall pattern and interactions between large scale pressure systems. The models can sense where the envelope of low pressure associated with 97L should be in 7-10 days better than smaller systems particularly in a relatively stable pattern. Thus the consensus and persistence we have seen among various models the past few days. Good to see you point this out.
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Quoting ncstorm:
can anyone tell me if there is only one long range model run for the CMC..the OOz only?
12Z


00Z has up to 240HR and 12Z up to 180HR.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
I'm going to bed and there is 542 posts. I wonder how many there will be when I come back in about 6hrs. Hmmmmm. Night all. Getting to cold for me and my wife and bed are waiting, only one is warmed up. Night
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Quoting rushisaband:
levi .. thanks for the daily info. i have an uncle that lives ( now retired ) in anchorage. worked on the pipe line up in prudhoe bay a long time ago. also run an auto parts store and freight courier business when they lived in fairbanks. needless to say he always has some interesting stories to tell. i'm sure he has been to homer a time or two as well. anyway, always enjoy your analysis


It always makes me happy to hear that folks have connections in Alaska :) It makes me feel like I'm still actually living in the country lol.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Levi,Excellent job on your update as usual,thanks for the time and effort.


Thanks, and you're welcome.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

someone barfed in the dropsonde tube

lolx6

anyway I think we may get a STWO at 4pm then advisory at 5pm the NHC has numbered/named storm before the HH got to go in before so may happen again
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Levi,Excellent job on your update as usual,thanks for the time and effort.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
That is SOOO wrong... lol

I no, but I couldn't resist.

Night all.
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Quoting IFuSAYso:


The blue in the Puget Sound is not ice, it's my exwife.

ROTFLMAO, IFUSS!!!!!
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can anyone tell me if there is only one long range model run for the CMC..the OOz only?
12Z
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Quoting RitaEvac:


I haven't even looked at any models, I'm going by my instict, time of year, and watching the ridge, all I've heard is Florida, Carolinas
that and a quarter will get u a cup of coffee .. lol
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530. xcool
hydrus lol working 24/7
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AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON EXPERIENCED
MECHANICAL PROBLEMS AND HAD TO RETURN TO BASE.


With that, I'm off to bed.

Now Sydney, Australia
46.0°F
Updated at 03:30 EST

Goodnight all.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
97L looks like a 1900 track, screwing around on land on the islands and Cuba then pressure tanks and storm goes ape$@#! over the Gulf
I get the feeling you are wishcasting!LOL
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
TWO out, 80% but probably because Recon had to return to base.. when is the next one?


I have seen before they will go back to base and repair or change planes and go back out again.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
Quoting AussieStorm:

someone barfed in the dropsonde tube
That is SOOO wrong... lol
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Quoting divdog:
rita is in rare form today. called people morons for following models without coc and then turns around and says 97l is headed for the gulf. pretty weak.


I haven't even looked at any models, I'm going by my instict, time of year, and watching the ridge, all I've heard is Florida, Carolinas
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Quoting Levi32:
93L should be mainly a rain event for central America, but if it passes even 50 miles offshore of Honduras, we could see it ramp up into a moderate-strong tropical storm before hitting Belize. Small storms like this one have the capability to intensify fast over warm water.


Like Charley.
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Quoting xcool:
doors open in Gulf not good
where ya been? Things are a brewin..
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When the NHC issues a distance from a particular point, as in the 2p.m. for 93L, is that from the nearest point of land period, or the nearest point that is in the projected path? Thnks in advance.
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They probably realized they were heading the wrong way 97L is east not west! lol
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rita is in rare form today. called people morons for following models without coc and then turns around and says 97l is headed for the gulf. pretty weak.
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97L looks like a 1900 track, screwing around on land on the islands and Cuba then pressure tanks and storm goes ape$@#! over the Gulf
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Time: 17:29:00Z
Coordinates: 15.0N 77.2333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 375.9 mb (~ 11.10 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 8,049 meters (~ 26,407 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 431 meters (~ 1,414 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 120° at 19 knots (From the ESE at ~ 21.8 mph)
Air Temp: -19.0°C (~ -2.2°F)
Dew Pt: -32.1°C (~ -25.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 20 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
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Quoting P451:


There's ice in the Puget Sound?





These maps aren't exactly gospel.


The blue in the Puget Sound is not ice, it's my exwife.
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Any chance 97L could slingshot any rain toward the upper Texas coast???
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 200
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON EXPERIENCED
MECHANICAL PROBLEMS AND HAD TO RETURN TO BASE.
ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE
COASTS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...BELIZE...AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE.

2. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEARLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Starting to get concerned about these "mechanical issues". Sure hope it's the technical equip and not the flying equip that's giving the problems....
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511. xcool
doors open in Gulf not good
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IMO I should of wrote
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Quoting wxmobilejim:
why did recon make a U-turn?

someone barfed in the dropsonde tube
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TWO out, 80% but probably because Recon had to return to base.. when is the next one?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24578
Quoting AussieStorm:

Impacted from by what?
exactly..he is miles ahead of himself.
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97L looks to be Gulf bound
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Quoting kshipre1:
so now suddenly it is looking like Florida will not be impacted... LOL!

What a change from this morning


The operational GFS is still saying Florida in the long range. The ensembles seem to say something different.
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if HH is heading back home I hope they plan to send one out in about 30min-2hours from now
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Quoting kshipre1:
so now suddenly it is looking like Florida will not be impacted... LOL!

What a change from this morning

Impacted from by what?
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why did recon make a U-turn?
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Quoting xcool:


12z GFS ensembles
The strength of this system will determine how quickly it turns North around the periphery of the High, a weaker system will go further west before making that turn. I will be interested to see how this storm fares after traversing Hispaniola, and Cuba. I know George made it through this area intact.
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levi .. thanks for the daily info. i have an uncle that lives ( now retired ) in anchorage. worked on the pipe line up in prudhoe bay a long time ago. also run an auto parts store and freight courier business when they lived in fairbanks. needless to say he always has some interesting stories to tell. i'm sure he has been to homer a time or two as well. anyway, always enjoy your analysis
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Quoting weatherjr:
In the past,without the technology of today, scientists performed best in their weather predictions and forecast of tropical cyclones. This is ridiculous.
Absolutely absurd!
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Quoting wpb:
recon must of experianced mechanical problems. last month another flight had to turn back early due to issues.

Why don't they turn off there transponder or post a Air Force Tropical RECCO Message saying ........
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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