Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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3446. fmbill
Quoting P451:
I'm going to make it real easy for everyone today. You can put down the every 6 hour model runs of DOOM. You can stop saying "Now its HOUSTON!" "No wait NOW ITS NOLA!" "No, now it's FLORIDA!"

And just accept the reality in regards to 97L as it stands today.




The above stands to be the most realistic model run possible until 97L undergoes development. Before it develops it needs to organize. This is going to take a couple of days.

At this point in the game the model runs mean little beyond the general idea that a storm may form and threaten a broad area in the coming days. There is no precision involved.



But that takes all the fun out of being here! :-)

Actually, I enjoy the discussion here. But, as an emergency manager, when it comes to giving solid direction & implementing our plans, I use nothing but real data interpreted from real experts.

(No offense...)

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3445. scott39
Quoting Patrap:
Another Haboob in Arizona yesterday



Dust storm envelops Phoenix, downs power lines
Published: Friday, August 19, 2011, 9:07 AM
pat did you ever get my E-mail?
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Wow...even the rainbow is starting to pick up on the doom-ness that is 97L!!

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Quoting 69Viking:


So why do the models show 98L turning NW so early?


Pouch People point to a upper level cut-off low that will develop, creating a weakness in the ridge.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
They use them here but make sure you wash them out good.


The Aquapod water storage system.
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Quoting P451:
I'm going to make it real easy for everyone today. You can put down the every 6 hour model runs of DOOM. You can stop saying "Now its HOUSTON!" "No wait NOW ITS NOLA!" "No, now it's FLORIDA!"

And just accept the reality in regards to 97L as it stands today.




The above stands to be the most realistic model run possible until 97L undergoes development. Before it develops it needs to organize. This is going to take a couple of days.

At this point in the game the model runs mean little beyond the general idea that a storm may form and threaten a broad area in the coming days. There is no precision involved.



Love the graphic...LOL
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

What do you suggest?


Just saying the NAM is not a Guidance Model......its a model used to see Thunderstorm Development over a 24-36 hour period. Suggest you use the GFS, CMC, NOGAP, BAM's, UKMET, HWRF as example to use........Go to my blog i have many of them up and running.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Quoting CybrTeddy:
1003.4 mb
(~ 29.63 inHg)


Do we have Harvey yet?
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3436. Patrap
Another Haboob in Arizona yesterday



Dust storm envelops Phoenix, downs power lines
Published: Friday, August 19, 2011, 9:07 AM
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Quoting hurricanehanna:
any reason the floater is gone on 93l?

nevermind....not enough coffee....shoulda waited to open my mouth
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Quoting yoboi:



how about filling used bleach containters with water?
They use them here but make sure you wash them out good.
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3431. scott39
Quoting seminolesfan:


I'm not discounting the emotional benefits of resurrection and improvement to local populations..., but...

Since you are part of a larger, and possibly regional or national corporation, you were blessed with deeper pockets to rebuild/maintain after the destruction and name recognition for people outside of their normal day to day routines; I would EXPECT to see good numbers in YOUR books.

What about the less fortunate proprietors of your competition? Does your correlation absolutely lead to causation for the local economy as a whole? What about loss of choice and diversity of local eateries? Is this valueless?
Businesses big and small have Insurance to cover all losses. This includes sales? The bank requires it. Someone that pays cash to build a business is going to have the same insurance. They are not going to risk that much money. So as you can see, proprietors dont suffer. The choice will come back when they rebuild those restaurants, while my stores are hiring more people, servicing the community and helping the economy.
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bouncin out...too much to do and don't need to spend any more time arguing facts...ttfn and bb sunday
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Quoting wolftribe2009:


I agree with you.

On another Note. The storm soon to become Irene is scaring the hell out of me. Most of the models seem to be forecasting DOOM for the US! Now I don't wish bad on anyone but I sure hope she goes more towards the East Coast (Hopefully that will mean she will re-curve out to Sea) because if she gets in the gulf as a Major Hurricane all hell will break loose. The economy is really bad as it is and we don't need higher gas prices over people on the oil platforms freaking out because a big storm has arrived in the GOM.
Agree. Even us in NC do not want this, but we need tropical storm rain to get rid of this stubborn drought. However, I hope hurricane force winds stay offcoast...
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3428. yoboi
Quoting tiggeriffic:


not everyone can wash a milk jug properly...i advise not to...where i work is under scrutiny from DHEC... we are not even allowed to have an empty one on premises...best if laimen follow the rule of freeze it only but don't use it for the milk jug policy... and as far as bleach goes...that rule is fine for some things, however, i wouldn't use more than a tsp per gallon...the tbls per gal is for disinfecting by soaking...just saying...



how about filling used bleach containters with water?
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any reason the floater is gone on 93l?
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3425. ncstorm
Quoting wolftribe2009:


I agree with you.

On another Note. The storm soon to become Irene is scaring the hell out of me. Most of the models seem to be forecasting DOOM for the US! Now I don't wish bad on anyone but I sure hope she goes more towards the East Coast (Hopefully that will mean she will re-curve out to Sea) because if she gets in the gulf as a Major Hurricane all hell will break loose. The economy is really bad as it is and we don't need higher gas prices over people on the oil platforms freaking out because a big storm has arrived in the GOM.


Gas prices would be ridiculous if 97L survived the passage and enter the GOM..I would have to invest in a scooter
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3424. fmbill
Quoting cat5hurricane:
06Z NAM developing 97L and taking her north of PR. 12Z coming out as we speak; will be interesting to see if this track shifts a bit to the south as well...

click image for link and larger view


So does the 12Z NOGAPS. I hate to think of what might be without land interaction.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
1003.4 mb
(~ 29.63 inHg)


You think TD 8 has a chance at 65-75 mph storm before it makes landfall?
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http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs 500mbHGHTPMSLtropical252.gif Darn. what a monster slamming into texas. maybe cat 2~3 maybe?
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Quoting Abacosurf:
LOL

I leave my coffee, with one third milk, in the car all day and drink it when I return. Amazingly it is almost as hot as when I first made it!! MMM delicious...

Baking soda can also be used to rinse and food grade 30% hydrogen peroxide as well....

Just saying.


and i bet you store raw meat on the top shelf of your fridge, use a sponge to wash dishes, and towel dry your dishes as well...you can do as you please, however, safety is always first and in all good conscience how can you tell people it is ok to wash a milk jug and drink the water knowing they may not do it properly and could get sick? The handle, the rim and the cap harbor protien bacteria after reaching certain temperatures...I have taken all the food prep courses and safety courses due to my position at work...i deal with kids...we have rules...i follow those rules...my kids don't get sick...restraunts and such that dont follow rules have high tendancy for food poisoning...i rarely eat out as i have gotten sick from one of those establishments...and they had the A rating on the door...if someone does NOT have experience in the proper way to do something...dont chance it...period...
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Quoting ReefMaster:

OK, I'm with you now. But that scenario has everything to do with how much it can get organized and strengthen in the GoH before it crosses land.


I agree with you.

On another Note. The storm soon to become Irene is scaring the hell out of me. Most of the models seem to be forecasting DOOM for the US! Now I don't wish bad on anyone but I sure hope she goes more towards the East Coast (Hopefully that will mean she will re-curve out to Sea) because if she gets in the gulf as a Major Hurricane all hell will break loose. The economy is really bad as it is and we don't need higher gas prices over people on the oil platforms freaking out because a big storm has arrived in the GOM.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
06Z NAM developing 97L and taking her north of PR. 12Z coming out as we speak; will be interesting to see if this track shifts a bit to the south as well...

click image for link and larger view


The NAM.......HUM......i would never use the NAM for showing direction.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
3415. ncstorm
Quoting palmasdelrio:


Can you post the links to these maps?TIA


here you go
Link
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3414. Patrap
Press,,dont ferget da Binoculars again.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
1003.4 mb
(~ 29.63 inHg)
WOW! TS today i would imagine.
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Quoting 69Viking:


So why do the models show 98L turning NW so early?



Those models that have it going NW are the ones that expect it to be stronger.......The stronger storm would move north of Puerto Rico.......as shown on here.....while the weaker system moves South..


Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Quoting PreacherMan5000:
Where has StormW been? I haven't seen him out here all season!
He was banned. stormw dot com
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Quoting presslord:
All the joy has just been sucked outta my miserable life....wife just said she wants to go down to the beach with me...
ouch.... there is times I'm glad that I'm 16.
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Quoting ncstorm:
ECWMF..



Can you post the links to these maps?TIA
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1003.4 mb
(~ 29.63 inHg)
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Quoting P451:


Do you agree with that individual? I wouldn't.

http://www.capefearcoast.com/


Man, those from the Carolinas are touchy about geographic labels.

THERE IS NO CAPE FEAR ITS WILMINGTON
THERE IS NO CAROLINA COASTLINE IT IS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA


lol...


According to Mapquest Cape Fear is an official suburb of Wilmington, just do a search for Cape Fear, NC on Mapquest and it's there!
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3402. hotrods
The gap is still up the gut towards Florida as of right now-with a grain of salt! That is.
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Now 97L is starting to get interesting, looking way more impressive than yesterday. Interestingly enough, the dry air that was completely devouring any convective development with 97L is still present because you can see the strato-cumulus surrounding it. However, 97L must be moistening its environment now near the circulation center, which is a sign that it could much better organized later in the period when atmospheric conditions become more favorable.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


not everyone can wash a milk jug properly...i advise not to...where i work is under scrutiny from DHEC... we are not even allowed to have an empty one on premises...best if laimen follow the rule of freeze it only but don't use it for the milk jug policy... and as far as bleach goes...that rule is fine for some things, however, i wouldn't use more than a tsp per gallon...the tbls per gal is for disinfecting by soaking...just saying...
LOL

I leave my coffee, with one third milk, in the car all day and drink it when I return. Amazingly it is almost as hot as when I first made it!! MMM delicious...

Baking soda can also be used to rinse and food grade 30% hydrogen peroxide as well....

Just saying.
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Quoting wolftribe2009:


No I meant Bay of Campeche. I was talking about the fact that i believe it will emerge over the Bay of Campeche after passing over Belize and the Yuctan. It will be over the water for some time before hitting East Mexico which is why I will be looking for the potential for him to become a CAt 1 Hurricane.

OK, I'm with you now. But that scenario has everything to do with how much it can get organized and strengthen in the GoH before it crosses land.
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97 likes the warmer water this is no emily or 93
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Quoting presslord:
All the joy has just been sucked outta my miserable life....wife just said she wants to go down to the beach with me...


roflmbo...why did ya tell her where you were going?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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