Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

Share this Blog
21
+

A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 796 - 746

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74Blog Index

Just back on since this morning. I see that the HH had a mechanical and turned around before reaching 93L.
The ASCAT pass this morning did not show anything close to a closed low so more wait and see for this system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Scary looking hurricane.

ECMWF cloud plots show an eye.



I really don't like that!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Scary looking hurricane.

ECMWF cloud plots show an eye.


Is that run with the ECMWF haarp overlay toggled on or off? ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Even more worrisome is the break between the high in the Atlantic and the High over the Western CONUS. Rolling out the red carpet for the GOM states.



The ECMWF "Control" has been pointing this out for a while now. If this system doesn't fall apart over the Greater Antilles, it could be a serious threat to land.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We sheltered in place for Ike. I wasn't sure if we would stay after or leave. Anyway I made sure the 12 gauge was adequately supplied as well.

Ended up leaving the next day and kept both handy until we reached an area with power and with adequate gas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
I wonder how the 12z GFS run will pan out if it actually happens. It predicts that 97L will cross hispaniola as a TS not weaken much then pass south of Cuba slightly weakened and recover to then cross cuba. I wonder if there is something missing in this picture, because experience tell us that crossing Hispaniola would tear it apart not to mention crossing Cuba after that. the only Hurricane I saw surviving this was Georges and it never developed to a mayor hurricane but instead a Cat3 when it his the Gulf Coast in Mississippi.


1900 storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
97L seems to have maintained its organization while fighting its way over the deforested mountains of the
mid-atlantic ridge.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Rain is good and all, but I don't think they'd want a system like this.

Could be too much of a good thing.


Yeah I was actually referring to the TROF being accompanied with some wet WX... not actually referring to this HURR actually making it to TX, but definitely agree with you there.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
Wow. The 12z HWRF for 93L actually brings 97L to a hurricane out of grid.

Pretty impressive.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wonder how the 12z GFS run will pan out if it actually happens. It predicts that 97L will cross hispaniola as a TS not weaken much then pass south of Cuba slightly weakened and recover to then cross cuba. I wonder if there is something missing in this picture, because experience tell us that crossing Hispaniola would tear it apart not to mention crossing Cuba after that. the only Hurricane I saw surviving this was Georges and it never developed to a mayor hurricane but instead a Cat2 when it his the Gulf Coast in Mississippi.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HuracanKY:
Very impressive wave exiting the African coast.
Link
isnt that the one jb was saying could have a low pressure similiar to donna back in the sixties
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5001
Quoting Levi32:


Probably. It's yet another 12z shifting away from its 0z counterpart, though. A better depiction of the ECMWF forecast of this system might be an average of the solutions that the 0z and 12z runs have been showing for 3 days now.
And what would that average be ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Scary looking hurricane.

ECMWF cloud plots show an eye.



Even more worrisome is the break between the high in the Atlantic and the High over the Western CONUS. Rolling out the red carpet for the GOM states.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting USAFwxguy:
That trough over the Northern Rockies would/should encourage movement more to the Northern GoM than Western, just to be clear.


Indeed...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
12z CMC

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
The whole area is warmer than baseline average by 1 to 2 C.



Doubtful that it is "record" hot, without a 3 to 4 C above average.


Thanks, Atmo. Still, we should be seeing max SSTs or at close to max by this time of year. Since we are now seeing 1 C to 2 C above average, would this be enough to set a new high temp? Just curious.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If this were to occur, this hurricane would be in almost the same exact location as that K storm back in 2005 on the exact same date.

8/28:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Scary looking hurricane.

ECMWF cloud plots show an eye.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Very impressive wave exiting the African coast.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Rain is good and all, but I don't think they'd want a system like this.

Could be too much of a good thing.


Nothing will be too much of a good thing, (as I shake you compulsively and glare into your eyes)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ECWMF:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pressure between the two invests is now 1008. 97L might be catching up soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Its interesting the ECMWF keeps 93L over water for two more days. Enough time to attain TS strength.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:
At least that's good news for TX a digging TROF (if it comes to pass) could bring rains to the state.


Rain is good and all, but I don't think they'd want a system like this.

Could be too much of a good thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Strong system in the Central Gulf by 228 hours heading WNW/NW.

Impressive.


so, based on this, the thinking is the GOM or East Coast by the 28th or so of August?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At least that's good news for TX a digging TROF (if it comes to pass) could bring rains to the state.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
Land locked right here, In a normal situation like this I would say this is a dangerous setup location right here and a major looks likely...

but with this drought and heat, my tongue is hanging out and watering....rain, give us rain

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So what conditionsare they waiting for to upgrade 93L?

Was offline for a bit so I'm trying to catch up :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
240

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Holy Smokes... 12Z EURO AT 240 hrs.... LOL..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, that's different.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting USAFwxguy:
Northern GoM:

*sigh*

(I don't really want this cane on my doorstep...)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


They have been all along. We knew the models would likely shift to different places during the course of several days. I'm impressed they stayed at Florida for so long. That whole region is a potential target depending on the little details that will be showing themselves over the next several days.


That's not what I meant. I was just saying on that particular run.

I posted several pages back how too many people were discounting the Central GOM as the 8-10 day 500mb mean has been shifting between the Central Gulf Coast and SE Coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Unless 97L get some WSW push shortly it will miss the entire island chain especially if it becomes more developed. It is almost 15N already.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13800
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Does anyone know if these are record highs for the GOM SSTs? How far back do we have records on this? ... I just do not remember ever seeing the GOM this HOT before.

The whole area is warmer than baseline average by 1 to 2 C.



Doubtful that it is "record" hot, without a 3 to 4 C above average.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
97L:

AL, 97, 2011081818, , BEST, 0, 136N, 394W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13800
216

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stats56:


Glock and lots of ammo was in my Ike kit since we were getting a direct hit.


When we left for Ike I nearly kept my 9 with a magazine handy in the car, but it became obvious that this was not going to be as bad as Rita, and I opted not to.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting katadman:


Are you sure your handle shouldn't be hydro?

The anticipation on this soon-to-be system is excruciating. I expect that we will not have a very clear picture until this time next week.


Ahhh, katadman, the voice of reason in a world of impulsiveness...LOL **hydro** LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Intense system in the GOM by 228. Still heading WNW/NW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


They have been all along. We knew the models would likely shift to different places during the course of several days. I'm impressed they stayed at Florida for so long. That whole region is a potential target depending on the little details that will be showing themselves over the next several days.


That's not what I meant. I was just saying on that particular run.

I posted several pages back how too many people were discounting the Central GOM as the 8-10 day 500mb mean has been shifting between the Central Gulf Coast and SE Coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anyone know if these are record highs for the GOM SSTs? How far back do we have records on this? ... I just do not remember ever seeing the GOM this HOT before.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOLA near shore wave models showing waves of 20+ ft passing just south of pr on monday just adding to the discussion thought it might be interesting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 796 - 746

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
26 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron