Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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DFWjc you have mail.
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Quoting NavarreMark:


Ever heard of Hurlburt field?

They have a Hurlburt Box there don't they? If you are within it during exercises you go KABOOM!!!!!
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Quoting NASA101:
Anyone paying any attention to a vigorous wave just off the African coast? Looks likes TD on Sat


The tropics are bubbling up for sure..
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Here is the Melbourne, FL forecast for next Thursday from the NWS office in Melbourne...

Thursday...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Windy. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.


So far out and using that terminology is NOT a good sign.
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Anyone paying any attention to a vigorous wave just off the African coast? Looks likes TD on Sat
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Quoting odinslightning:



i just thank the lord they didnt have an accident and fatalities....

Amen.
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Just noticed that the 10-day forecast for Houston was sunny and around 100F as of this morning... Now it shows low-mid 90s with 40-60% chance of rain on Aug 25th onwards.... that HIGH breaking down a little.... what a freaking relief and much needed rain even if it's not from a tropical system!

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Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Wow! That sux. I hear of the typical issues there in the the rural, mountainous areas, but not so much about the urban areas. Is it that bad even in the urban areas? You would think they, having been through so many hurricanes and tropical storms, would be able to teach the USA and other countries a thing or two about power grids.


I live in a rural area about 500 feet high. And again...if something hit us this year that's 2 1/2 months without power in my area...granted. Preventive Maintenance here is mainly non existent and during the last few years all the discussion regarding our power company goes around switching from oil to natural gas + the daily politics of course (which by the way it's our national sport).
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Quoting Tazmanian:



too me 97L is starting too get stronger this need some t-storms
The SAL seems to be the problem at the moment, still pretty cool to see on visible satellite.
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Still alot of dry air for 97l to contend with


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Quoting washingtonian115:
If 93L can get it's act together than it may turn into Harvey.Then we may have something to talk about besides what migt happen to the southeast U.S and Islands 5-10 days out.


Good point...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
If 93L can get it's act together than it may turn into Harvey.Then we may have something to talk about besides what migt happen to the southeast U.S and Islands 5-10 days out.
Well, 93L is running out of real estate. I think his chance to be someone's nightmare (read: 'cane) has already passed. JMO.
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Quoting NavarreMark:


Ever heard of Hurlburt field?


Only worked there for the past Nine years, why do you ask?
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Quoting NavarreMark:


Ever heard of Hurlburt field?


In the Corps we just evacuated the important stuff like Helos and pilots.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
The difference is we had downward motion with Emily, we have upward motion with 97L which is favorable for development. Sorry if I sound like a development caster lately. Did you see that rather vigorous wave off Africa, it has a well defined spin!
Yeah!.The wave behind 97L is impressive.Could something develope out of it?.Yeah I belive so.
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Quoting AegirsGal:
Cut my hurricane tracking eye teeth while stationed at GTMO. I love the Caribbean, and would love to live there. It irritates me as well to see people discount the islands' populations with regard to weather effects.


I Grew up in Corpus Christi , Texas..first big Hurricane was Celia..161 mph. Got Meteorology Education at UST and MSU ( Dr. Mark Binkley) in the 1980's-2000. Retired. Took Broadcast Meterology Certification Exam in Birmingham in 1999.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
AL, 97, 2011081818, , BEST, 0, 136N, 394W, 25, 1008, DB



too me 97L is starting too get stronger this need some t-storms
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Sorry for reposting, finally have the pic figured out. This is near LaGrange at my weekend place. about 60 miles South of Austin. Thought it might give some real color on how extreme our drought has become.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Did someone from this blog post the Tallahassee Forecast Discussion? :-D

We've been talking about this same thing for days.


That, or at least SOMEONE in Tallahassee is paying attention to what people are saying for a change. LOL
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Quoting Dennis8:


VERY true..hard to forecast a storm that is not even formed ( if ever) when we have difficulty 2 days out with one that is formed! BUT fun to talk about when you have nothing else to do with your time.
If 93L can get it's act together than it may turn into Harvey.Then we may have something to talk about besides what migt happen to the southeast U.S and Islands 5-10 days out.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Not to sound like Debby the downer but remember when the models were developing Emily into an intense hurricane and had it slamming into the eastern gulf coast or east coast?.Just like this wave.I won't trust the models that far out.This sytem hasn't even developed yet.Though the pattern is setting up for a potential Southeast U.S landfall.This thing needs to develope first....
The difference is we had downward motion with Emily, we have upward motion with 97L which is favorable for development. Sorry if I sound like a development caster lately. Did you see that rather vigorous wave off Africa, it has a well defined spin!
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Quoting AegirsGal:
104 here in West Fort Worth. 19% humidity. Drier than a popcorn fart!


That really could be a professional term... LOL JK
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Did someone from this blog post the Tallahassee Forecast Discussion? :-D

We've been talking about this same thing for days.



Did they? How can someone get ahead of someone like you..let me send that Dr. Masters again to see if he thinks you are being combative on the blog..PASSIVE AGRESSIVE
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Quoting NavarreMark:


Your a credit to the blog Spuds. Good information for all fishermen to know.


Yes, excellent info. for those of us who eat fish 4 days a week...
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correct but a weaker system would be steered further south and west

if 97L gets stronger quicker it could traverse north of the islands, then S Florida is more a threat

now? still in the threat zone but I think more so the central and west gulf is more at threat now than Florida
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


Evacuate?


The military requires Active Duty to evacuate if a Hurricane of a certain strength threatens the area where you are stationed. There aren't any AF Bases on the Emerald Coast NOT on the water so if we get a hurricane you might be required to Evacuate unless you are on the Base Ride Out crew. I sent you a message a while back btw, check your WU Inbox.
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917. DFWjc
Quoting AegirsGal:
104 here in West Fort Worth. 19% humidity. Drier than a popcorn fart!


Where in WFW? I'm in NRH...
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HPC Extended Discussion..
OVER THE PAST DAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OVERALL HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE FASTER TO BRING PROGRESSIVE NERN PAC FLOW ACROSS SRN
CANADA... LEADING TO AN EARLIER THAN CONTINUITY NNE RETREAT OF THE
TROFFING ALONG THE EAST COAST AFTER THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
BY DAYS 5-7 TUE-THU THE LIFTING OUT TROF SHOULD ALLOW HIGHER HGTS
ALONG THE EAST COAST. 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM STILL ON THE
SAME PAGE WITH THIS GENERAL IDEA. ..A NUMBER OF 00Z/18
MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLNS SHOWED LARGE SPREAD CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF
AN ILL DEFINED BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SERN
CONUS.12Z/18 MODEL SOLNS ARE A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED WITH BRINGING
UPPER ENERGY INTO THE MS VLY REGION LATE IN THE FCST.


THERE REMAINS BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT ON POTENTIAL FOR A
TROPICAL SYSTEM TO REACH THE VICINITY OF CUBA OR THE BAHAMAS BY
DAY 7 THU....HOWEVER THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAD MADE A MARKED TREND SW
WITH THE TREND OF THE BAHAMAS TROPICAL SYS BY DAY 7. HOWEVER A SWD
TREND TO THE TRACK WAS NOTED
BY HPC AND NHC EVEN ON DAY 5. 00Z ENSEMBLES HAD SHOWN BETTER THAN
AVERAGE CLUSTERING FOR A DAY 7 FCST WITH THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
SYSTEM FCST TO REACH CUBA OR THE BAHAMAS AT THAT TIME.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Not to sound like Debby the downer but remember when the models were developing Emily into an intense hurricane and had it slamming into the eastern gulf coast or east coast?.Just like this wave.I won't trust the models that far out.This sytem hasn't even developed yet.Though the pattern is setting up for a potential Southeast U.S landfall.This thing needs to develope first....


VERY true..hard to forecast a storm that is not even formed ( if ever) when we have difficulty 2 days out with one that is formed! BUT fun to talk about when you have nothing else to do with your time.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Afternoon, all.

Important announcement #1: It's still raining! LOL First genuinely rainy day we've had in .... months?? A long while, anyway.



So is this the sign of increased instability in the basin, or just an isolated incident?

The increased instability in the basin is the right answer, methinks.

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Quoting tatoprweather:


For me, the main problem in PR if a storm hit us is the actual conditions of the power grid. Brother, if something happems this year, I'll be without power for about 2 1/2 months...and that's granted.


Wow! That sux. I hear of the typical issues there in the the rural, mountainous areas, but not so much about the urban areas. Is it that bad even in the urban areas? You would think they, having been through so many hurricanes and tropical storms, would be able to teach the USA and other countries a thing or two about power grids.
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Back tomorrow night, should see Harvey Late tonight or Early tomorrow morning, and well likely peak out around 65 Mph... Sadly another waste, WAH WAH WAH WAH... :(
anyway, should see a 20 to 30% on 97L tomorrow night as it crosses 50W
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
306 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011



.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY) THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TOWARD THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE MAINTAINING A MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE EAST...AND A CORRESPONDING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD WESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SIGNIFICANCE
OF THIS WOULD BE THAT TROPICAL SYSTEMS COULD POSSIBLY BE MORE OF A
THREAT TO LAND THAN WITH RECENT SYSTEMS...WHICH HAVE MOSTLY BEEN
STEERED HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA THUS FAR IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY
THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE FIRST SYSTEM THAT MAY
TEST THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ENTERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA BY NEXT THURSDAY...BASED ON THE
12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF RUNS. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT SOUTHWARD FROM
THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS WAVE TO
DEVELOP...IF IT EVEN DEVELOPS...AS THERE WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR
ALOFT SURROUNDING IT. THIS DELAY IN CYCLOGENESIS IS PROBABLY WHY
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH...AS A
MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM WOULD INITIALLY BE STEERED BY THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OUT OF THE EAST.


Did someone from this blog post the Tallahassee Forecast Discussion? :-D

We've been talking about this same thing for days.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting Dennis8:


I have been in over 10 storms and after Ike the 'EXCITEMENT' of wanting to be in a landfall has ebbed. I appreciated you thinking of all the folks on those beautiful islands. Sometimes we get selfish and think ONLY USA , USA!
Cut my hurricane tracking eye teeth while stationed at GTMO. I love the Caribbean, and would love to live there. It irritates me as well to see people discount the islands' populations with regard to weather effects.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


Evacuate?


evacuateVerb/iˈvakyo͞oˌāt/ 1. Remove (someone) from a place of danger to a safe place.
2. Leave or cause the occupants to leave (a place of danger).
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
306 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011



.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY) THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TOWARD THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE MAINTAINING A MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE EAST...AND A CORRESPONDING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD WESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SIGNIFICANCE
OF THIS WOULD BE THAT TROPICAL SYSTEMS COULD POSSIBLY BE MORE OF A
THREAT TO LAND THAN WITH RECENT SYSTEMS...WHICH HAVE MOSTLY BEEN
STEERED HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA THUS FAR IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY
THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE FIRST SYSTEM THAT MAY
TEST THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ENTERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA BY NEXT THURSDAY...BASED ON THE
12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF RUNS. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT SOUTHWARD FROM
THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS WAVE TO
DEVELOP...IF IT EVEN DEVELOPS...AS THERE WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR
ALOFT SURROUNDING IT. THIS DELAY IN CYCLOGENESIS IS PROBABLY WHY
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH...AS A
MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM WOULD INITIALLY BE STEERED BY THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OUT OF THE EAST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Afternoon, all.

Important announcement #1: It's still raining! LOL First genuinely rainy day we've had in .... months?? A long while, anyway.



So is this the sign of increased instability in the basin, or just an isolated incident?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
AL, 97, 2011081818, , BEST, 0, 136N, 394W, 25, 1008, DB


Firefox 9 nightly is out :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not to sound like Debby the downer but remember when the models were developing Emily into an intense hurricane and had it slamming into the eastern gulf coast or east coast?.Just like this wave.I won't trust the models that far out.This sytem hasn't even developed yet.Though the pattern is setting up for a potential Southeast U.S landfall.This thing needs to develope first....
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Quoting extreme236:


Looks like some new convection developing near a possible center.


Shows up on IR well
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
306 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011



.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY) THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TOWARD THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE MAINTAINING A MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE EAST...AND A CORRESPONDING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD WESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SIGNIFICANCE
OF THIS WOULD BE THAT TROPICAL SYSTEMS COULD POSSIBLY BE MORE OF A
THREAT TO LAND THAN WITH RECENT SYSTEMS...WHICH HAVE MOSTLY BEEN
STEERED HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA THUS FAR IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY
THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE FIRST SYSTEM THAT MAY
TEST THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ENTERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA BY NEXT THURSDAY...BASED ON THE
12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF RUNS. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT SOUTHWARD FROM
THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS WAVE TO
DEVELOP...IF IT EVEN DEVELOPS...AS THERE WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR
ALOFT SURROUNDING IT. THIS DELAY IN CYCLOGENESIS IS PROBABLY WHY
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH...AS A
MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM WOULD INITIALLY BE STEERED BY THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OUT OF THE EAST.
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Quoting Levi32:


Looks like some new convection developing near a possible center.
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AL, 97, 2011081818, , BEST, 0, 136N, 394W, 25, 1008, DB
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Quoting AegirsGal:
104 here in West Fort Worth. 19% humidity. Drier than a popcorn fart!


LOL
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.