Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Dennis8:
JUST HIT 104 AT MY HOUSE IN Houston!
105.8 Fort Worth. I would imagine there is a higher humidity there.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:


Levi you don't see west winds on this? I do.
? An IR satellite product cannot show you surface winds.

Mid-level winds? Yeah, sure.
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1044. oakland
Quoting Dennis8:
JUST HIT 104 AT MY HOUSE IN Houston!


I'm sorry! That's brutal!
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Quoting PcolaDan:

I get those all the time. They haven't figured it out yet. :|
Lol.You already live in Florida!.Maybe they want you to go to miami?
Quoting Dennis8:


WOW! Looks ripe for development..thanks for posting the link!
This is the one I think the models are developing after 97L.
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1042. ncstorm
Quoting xcool:

Invest97----Allan Huffman, Raleigh Weather Examiner

Continuation of his analysis

The general thinking is this. The system looks likely to stay weak for the next 48-72 hours. I don%u2019t think this becomes a tropical storm before Sunday when it passes through the central and northern Islands. It will be steered west by the strong upper ridge to its north. Once it gets past 60W, the various global models show gradual strengthening but they also show the system passing over or very near Hispaniola and Cuba. This obviously will have a huge impact on the future of the storm. Many storms have met their death crossing the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and we saw that earlier this season with Emily. The western Atlantic ridge is forecast to strengthen and expand west in the 6-10 day period which should prevent the storm from escaping to the north, but it is uncertain at what latitude the storm will be at since we have to account for land interaction and slow development. A general trough is forecast to form over the Mississippi River Valley by late next week and the following weekend and it would make sense that this would turn north and head towards that weakness. But it is unclear how far west it gets before that happens. Assuming it isn%u2019t ripped apart by the Greater Antilles, the odds favor this strengthening quickly, especially since the global models seem to insist on this scenario. They usually do a good job of sniffing out what the large scale environment is going to be like for a storm.

Essentially everyone has to watch this event. I would say the odds to me favor Florida but I would say it is equal chances of it being an eastern Gulf of southeast coast threat. Stay tuned

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1041. Dennis8
JUST HIT 104 AT MY HOUSE IN Houston!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
Quoting stormhank:
The wave behind 97L could be declared an invest itself in a couple days, it looks pretty impressive at the moment...Link


I was thinking the same thing. It has some dry air to deal with. You can see that in the milky coulds to its north. But it doesn't appear to be a dry as 97L's area.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Tomorrow morning.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 19/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0308A CYCLONE
C. 19/0800Z
D. 15.0N 82.50W
E. 19/1130Z TO 19/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


If it doesn't move a little more north, it's going to be over land tomorrow morning.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah like those!.Or there's one for a free ipod and computer or a vacation to some where in Florida.

I get those all the time. They haven't figured it out yet. :|
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Quoting MississippiWx:


I don't think it's a guarantee, but it's close. The problem is recon won't be in there for a while...(is there even another one scheduled today?)

There is something to be said for the persistent convective bursts, though. Looks to be more going on at the surface now.
Tomorrow morning.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 19/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0308A CYCLONE
C. 19/0800Z
D. 15.0N 82.50W
E. 19/1130Z TO 19/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Levi32:


I wouldn't say that. Westerly winds are very trying to find on visible imagery at the moment. The solid mid-level circulation is closed and thus gives the illusion that it may be closed at the surface, but just like yesterday, that is not necessarily the case. It is getting close though. It may run out of time if it makes landfall in extreme northern Honduras.


Levi you don't see west winds on this? I do.
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Question...

Would they already know what name they are using to replace Don in 2017, for example Derrick. If not already, when do they have the new names by? Thanks.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml
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1034. oakland
Quoting Dennis8:


KEEP that Hurricane Preparedness at READY June 1- November 30!


Trust me it's all ready. Just need to pick up a few items this weekend and fill up the gas tanks on the cars.
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1033. Dennis8
Quoting stormhank:
The wave behind 97L could be declared an invest itself in a couple days, it looks pretty impressive at the moment...Link


WOW! Looks ripe for development..thanks for posting the link!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
Quoting tropicfreak:


LOL like, CONGRATS YOU JUST WON $1,000,000 CLICK HERE TO CLAIM YOUR PRIZE. Only to find out that you have to fill out a survey and fill out information and other fees.
Yeah like those!.Or there's one for a free ipod and computer or a vacation to some where in Florida.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Agreed. This is the first time I've seen it retain storms throughout the p.m., as well. If that keeps up, it might be able to do something with the upcoming Dmax.

This thing is giving genuine meaning to "slow development".....
Retaining something, and, yes, somewhat better than the last couple of days, but still not very deep convection by cloud top temps.

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1030. wpb
special update at 5pm for 93l?
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Quoting Tygor:


Wait, this looks like my yard! Except the trees in this photo look a little better than mine. They went through a phase of dropping many of their leaves, but now the trees are simply dying. We've been trying to water according to water restrictions, but it's tough to give the plants what they need and still stay compliant with regulations.
This is especially tricky if you have water lines on the property. There have been several reports of waterlines rupturing because the dirt surrounding the pipes is so dry its not providing the needed stability, making a bad situation even worse.
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The wave behind 97L could be declared an invest itself in a couple days, it looks pretty impressive at the moment...Link
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1027. Dennis8
Quoting oakland:


I hope you're right and nothing does develop. However, since I live on the west coast of FL and have friends all up the eastern US and the models have been developing it for days, I will keep a very close eye on what does or does not develop.


KEEP that Hurricane Preparedness at READY June 1- November 30!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
Quoting Levi32:


I wouldn't say that. Westerly winds are very trying to find on visible imagery at the moment. The solid mid-level circulation is closed and thus gives the illusion that it may be closed at the surface, but just like yesterday, that is not necessarily the case. It is getting close though. It may run out of time if it makes landfall in extreme northern Honduras.


I don't think it's a guarantee, but it's close. The problem is recon won't be in there for a while...(is there even another one scheduled today?)

There is something to be said for the persistent convective bursts, though. Looks to be more going on at the surface now.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
1025. Dennis8
Quoting Tygor:


Wait, this looks like my yard! Except the trees in this photo look a little better than mine. They went through a phase of dropping many of their leaves, but now the trees are simply dying. We've been trying to water according to water restrictions, but it's tough to give the plants what they need and still stay compliant with regulations.


Just had lunch at The Palm and drove home by memorial Park in Houston..so many "Dead" looking trees....this is one for record books! 103 in the Houston Heights right now.. miles north of downtown.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
Quoting GetReal:



Link


Thanks something about the colours makes it easier to see circulation and cloud levels
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1023. oakland
Quoting weatherjr:
In my opinion Invest 97 will be NOTHING for the eastern most antilles. It will be similar to Emily (as much). But models develop it!! SO WHAT, SO WHAT...


I hope you're right and nothing does develop. However, since I live on the west coast of FL and have friends all up the eastern US and the models have been developing it for days, I will keep a very close eye on what does or does not develop.
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1022. Tygor
Quoting nativhoustonian:






Sorry for reposting, finally have the pic figured out. This is near LaGrange at my weekend place. about 60 miles South of Austin. Thought it might give some real color on how extreme our drought has become.


Wait, this looks like my yard! Except the trees in this photo look a little better than mine. They went through a phase of dropping many of their leaves, but now the trees are simply dying. We've been trying to water according to water restrictions, but it's tough to give the plants what they need and still stay compliant with regulations.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Your yellow banner reminds me of the bright scams they show all over the internet.Lol.


LOL like, CONGRATS YOU JUST WON $1,000,000 CLICK HERE TO CLAIM YOUR PRIZE. Only to find out that you have to fill out a survey and fill out information and other fees.
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1020. Dennis8
Quoting Levi32:


I wouldn't say that. Westerly winds are very trying to find on visible imagery at the moment. The solid mid-level circulation is closed and thus gives the illusion that it may be closed at the surface, but just like yesterday, that is not necessarily the case.


Good point..looks are deceiving..I learned that in satellite meteorology years ago..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
1019. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good afternoon guys.

No doubt in my mind that 93L isn't a tropical depression right now, a closed circulation is very apparent on satellite imagery.


I wouldn't say that. Westerly winds are very trying to find on visible imagery at the moment. The solid mid-level circulation is closed and thus gives the illusion that it may be closed at the surface, but just like yesterday, that is not necessarily the case. It is getting close though. It may run out of time if it makes landfall in extreme northern Honduras.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting MississippiWx:
Convection is building persistently around the apparent center, which is something 93L hasn't done until now. The convection would develop then die, only to reform several hours later. Convection is now constantly re-firing each frame, which tells me we have more activity at the surface causing the air to rise more.

Agreed. This is the first time I've seen it retain storms throughout the p.m., as well. If that keeps up, it might be able to do something with the upcoming Dmax.

This thing is giving genuine meaning to "slow development".....
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Convection is building persistently around the apparent center, which is something 93L hasn't done until now. The convection would develop then die, only to reform several hours later. Convection is now constantly re-firing each frame, which tells me we have more activity at the surface causing the air to rise more.

Very good point. As we approach d-min, it only continues to look better. Arguably a TS in my opinion.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good afternoon guys.

No doubt in my mind that 93L isn't a tropical depression right now, a closed circulation is very apparent on satellite imagery.


I strongly agree, darn mechanical problem lol.
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1014. Dennis8
Quoting weatherjr:
In my opinion Invest 97 will be NOTHING for the eastern most antilles. It will be similar to Emily (as much). But models develop it!! SO WHAT, SO WHAT...


I AGREE..so true
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
Quoting TomTaylor:
Wrote a Blog on 93L, 97L, and other Tropical Stuff

Feel free to check it out
Your yellow banner reminds me of the bright scams they show all over the internet.Lol.
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1011. GetReal
...
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1010. oakland
No problem Dennis8.
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1009. Dennis8
Quoting oakland:
Here's what I saw on the 12Z loop:

Link


Thanks..I see it too!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
1008. Dennis8
Nice spiral banding on 93L showing on satellite...lets watch each frame and see if it keeps developing
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
Wrote a Blog on 93L, 97L, and other Tropical Stuff

Feel free to check it out
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1006. oakland
Here's what I saw on the eCMWF 12Z loop:

Link
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1005. GetReal
Quoting farupnorth:


That animation is really nice where do you get it?



Link
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A third bridge between 93L's previous mapping (18August_12amGMT); early because it's quite plausible that a TropicalCyclone will be making landfall within 16&1/2 hours from now.
Since the earlier mapping:
15.5n78.0w, 15.7n79.4w have been re-evaluated&altered for 93L's_12amGMT_ATCF
15.4n78.0w, 15.4n79.4w, 15.4n80.4w are now the most recent positions

Starting 17August_6pmGMT and ending 18August_6pmGMT

The 4 line-segments represent 93L's path.

93L's travel-speed has dropped to 11.2mph(18k/h) from the 18mph(29k/h) of 18hours ago
As of 6pmGMT, it's center was 212miles(341kilometres) from Cauquira,Honduras (cdd)

Copy&paste gcm, 15.1n74.9w-15.3n76.5w, 15.3n76.5w-15.4n78.0w, 15.4n78.0w-15.4n79.4w, 15.4n79.4w-15.4n80.4w, cdd, uii into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
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Good afternoon guys.

No doubt in my mind that 93L isn't a tropical depression right now, a closed circulation is very apparent on satellite imagery.
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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Question...

Does the WMO have a publically issued list of the new storm names if one were to get retired.

For example, let me use Don so I'm not cursing anybody. For the sake of argument, let's say Don gets retired. (I know it won't.) Would they already know what name they are using to replace Don in 2017, for example Derrick. If not already, when do they have the new names by? Thanks.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
I realize the consistency of model forecasts as far as the track of 97L goes, but 97L is a very unimpressive with lots of dry embedded around it. Tropical systems need MASSIVE amounts of moisture to function properly and grow. 97L is far from that.

Could that change? Of course, but until then, don't worry about a system that doesn't even match half the intensity of sea breeze storms in Florida.

The one thing 97L does have going for it so far is that it has a well defined circulation, if it can get into a much more favorable environment for convection and break away from the dry air, then we will likely see a completely different system.
All true, but I don't think anybody in the blog is expecting to see anything from 97L prior to about 50W. And almost everybody in the blog has either experienced personally or can understand intellectually the potential of storms that don't begin organizing until 50W. We've had plenty of them over the years. It's wariness, not worry, that's driving us.

Wait and see cuts both ways. Sure, it may not come to anything; OTOH, it may come to something notable.
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Pressure dropping and wind rising quickly at the buoy near 93L

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Quoting P451:


It looks like this one finally stopped gobbling up dry air. The outflow boundaries have virtually disappeared.

Thanks for the close-up shot, helping us to see this.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Pressure is really dropping at Buoy 42057.



The winds are pretty decent as well, even on the NW side of the system.

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 4.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.7 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 102 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.80 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.1 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.5 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 86.0 °F




is that for 93L or 97L?
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Pressure is really dropping at Buoy 42057.



The winds are pretty decent as well, even on the NW side of the system.

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 4.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.7 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 102 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.80 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.1 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.5 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 86.0 °F
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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