Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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1196. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


Big trough out in the Eastern Subtropical Atlantic


Yes, but that is not the feature that the pouch people are referring to. The feature cited does not appear on initializations, but develops in 36-48 hours.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I doubt we'll see landfall before the night is over. That is only in another 7 hours or so.

HIGHLY unlikely IMO.



I guess I should have been more clear. Before the sun rises tomorrow morning.
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The 100-degree day records for southeast Texas...

A strong upper level ridge of high pressure is resulting in a
prolonged period of very hot temperatures across southeast Texas.
For the city of Houston the record has already been set for the
longest ever stretch of consecutive 100-degree days... with the
number approaching the record in College Station. In addition...
with each passing day we March ever closer to the all-time record
for the most 100-degree days for an entire Summer season at College
Station... Houston... and Houston/hobby.

Most consecutive 100-degree days at Houston (iah):
(records since 1889)

1. 18 days - ongoing as of 8/18/2011
2. 14 days - ending 7/19/1980
3. 11 days - ending 8/05/1998
4. 9 days - ending 7/03/1980
5. 8 days - ending 9/05/2000
6. 8 days - ending 8/21/1993
7. 8 days - ending 8/14/1962
8. 7 days - ending 6/29/2009
9. 7 days - ending 8/02/1986
10. 7 days - ending 6/22/1902

Most 100-degree days for an entire Summer at Houston (iah):
(records since 1889)

1. 32 days - 1980
2. 29 days - 2011 (ongoing as of 8/18/2011)
3. 24 days - 1998
4. 20 days - 2000
5. 19 days - 1902
6. 17 days - 2009
7. 16 days - 1909
8. 14 days - 1993
9. 13 days - 1907
10. 10 days - 1999
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1192. ncstorm
Quoting Levi32:
500mb flow is flat westward from Africa to 50W.



what does that mean?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Probably the most impressive wave so far this season.



Yep. If all three invests wind up developing, we'd have 6 August storms and the month still has a number of days remaining.
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1190. Levi32
Quoting Levi32:


Hmm...where? The nearest ULL is NNE of the lesser Antilles, too far away to impact the short-term path of 98L.

300mb winds initialization:



Interesting. It develops there in about 48 hours. It appears to strengthen from some weak upper vorticity that must currently be in the region.

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IMO, 10-20% on 98L. They'll want to watch for further persistence, remember 93L.. looked pretty good too for a while.
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Probably the most impressive wave so far this season.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15884
outta control

Port of Houston, Houston, Texas (PWS)
Scattered Clouds
106.6 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 36%
Dew Point: 74 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Pressure: 29.81 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 121 °F
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1186. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:
500mb flow is flat westward from Africa to 50W.



Big trough out in the Eastern Subtropical Atlantic
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ASCAT from this morning revealed two areas of cyclonic-curving winds. One near 10˚N 17˚W and another near 13.5˚N 18˚W (roughly).

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21178
1184. wpb
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
98L fish thankfull
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Any guesses on a % for 98L?

I'd say 30-40%



they may even give 98L a high ch of 60%
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114966
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Pouch People think its moving toward the ULL which they think creates a weakness.


Any relation to the Village People?
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10227
Quoting Tazmanian:




92L?


you mean 93L or may be even 97L or 98L


thanks Taz....93L
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting MississippiWx:
Lol...The NWS offices all across the South are jumping on the potential hurricane for next week...

Shreveport, LA Forecast Discussion:

THE BLOCKING RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK...BEFORE TROUGHING ACROSS THE MID-MS/TN VALLIES WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WEAKNESSES WHICH MAY YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION
MAINLY OVER SW AR/N LA. WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...BEFORE THE RIDGE IS NUDGED FAR ENOUGH W BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED /10+ DAYS OUT/ WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT MAY WANDER WNW INTO
THE WRN CARRIBEAN/GULF OF MX.


Yes even here, our locale weather TV Channels have been talking about this storm for the last 2 days and the possiblity of it hitting somewhere close.... Although they did say it was too far out to say where.... But they have been talking about it...

Taco :o)
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1179. xcool
98l 50%
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1178. Levi32
500mb flow is flat westward from Africa to 50W.

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In light of the mechanical problem the HH had earlier, I think they should send another out to have a look see at 93L. Would definitely give more information than going blind looking st sat loops and model runs.
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1176. Grothar
The ECMWF seem to want to move 98L more NW very early.

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92L is dead and gone(Just like that Justin Timberlake song featuring T.I)
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Quoting atmoaggie:
doh.

The CH1, CH1, CH4 means it's visible, visible, and IR.
Given the sunglint, the low levels must be visible, not IR.

(Oops, my bad.)

Still don't think it truly depicts surface winds worth a [snip].
It's the best solution in the absence of a nearby buoy, recon or ascat pass.
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1172. Levi32
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Pouch People think its moving toward the ULL which they think creates a weakness.


Hmm...where? The nearest ULL is NNE of the lesser Antilles, too far away to impact the short-term path of 98L.

300mb winds initialization:

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Any guesses on a % for 98L?

I'd say 30-40%

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15884
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Wow! 92L is getting ready to go.



Yeah, that buoy is out ahead of 93L's center and it's at 29.78in or 1008mb.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10227
Quoting HCW:


Yes I sure do





thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114966
Atlantic:

* 93L
* 97L
* 98L

My opinion:

93L: Depression tonight or early in the morning.

97L: Depression early/middle next week.

98L: Not sure.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Wow! 92L is getting ready to go.



You mean 93L
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Wow! 92L is getting ready to go.



92L?
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1165. HCW
Quoting Tazmanian:
dos any one have the mode runs that go with 98L?


Yes I sure do


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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Wow! 92L is getting ready to go.





92L?


you mean 93L or may be even 97L or 98L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114966
1163. Levi32
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Wow! 92L is getting ready to go.



Impressive, and that buoy is well to the north of where the surface center likely is.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Just got back from supper.

Guess its that time of the year again.



Welcome back Obama! lol your avatar
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1161. Drakoen
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Pouch People think its moving toward the ULL which they think creates a weakness.


Pouch people? lol.

Looks like there is a weakness to the east of 20W that could induce a more northerly component of the system.

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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Looks a little like Ike early on.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


It's purely running out of time, according to CIMMS and looking at satellite it should run into Nicaragua/Honduras before the night is over.



I doubt we'll see landfall before the night is over. That is only in another 7 hours or so.

HIGHLY unlikely IMO.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Could have 3 to 4 named storms over the next few days. 93L, 97L, 98L, and the wave behind 98L.
98L reminds me of Julia.We're knocking off names on the list as though it's nobody's businuss.
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Wow! 93L is getting ready to go.

Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Just got back from supper.

Guess its that time of the year again.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15884
Quoting tropicfreak:


I think we will see harvey out of 93L, it definitely has the looks of one.


It's purely running out of time, according to CIMMS and looking at satellite it should run into Nicaragua/Honduras before the night is over.

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When is the last time we didn't have an invest to track?

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10227
Quoting Levi32:
The GFS and Euro both show almost instantaneous NW motion from 98L, which seems odd given that the Azores High is solidly in place to the northwest. A northward component to the movement could be acquired later, but I would favor a more westward movement to start off with.



Pouch People think its moving toward the ULL which they think creates a weakness.
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1151. Grothar
98L

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hmmmm? Doesn't this say the opposite about the ridge?

ONGOING WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXPANSIVE SOUTH PLAINS HIGH. TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE THE NORM WILL BE MAINTAINED WHILE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
STAY LIMITED. COULD SEE A WETTER PATTERN DEVELOP TOWARD THE MID
PART OF THE NEW WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING SOME RETROGRADING OF
HIGH AS A DEEP LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.


CONTINUE TO WATCH WESTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH NHC CARRYING AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT.


Houston NWS is just stuck in replay, just copy and paste the same thing every week since that's been the norm for so long
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Lol...Anyone else think it's funny that we are talking about 93L becoming a tropical cyclone when 98L was just established?


I do, 93L took forever to develop, and systems like 94L 95L popped up and formed quickly lol. 96L fizzled as quickly as you could say it developed, and 92L never was a factor.
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1147. Drakoen
Could have 3 to 4 named storms over the next few days. 93L, 97L, 98L, and the wave behind 98L.
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Quoting Dennis8:


That is great..I hope he is drinking lots of cold water.! What make you interested in Wx?
check your WU mail.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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