Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Drakoen:
Could have 3 to 4 named storms over the next few days. 93L, 97L, 98L, and the wave behind 98L.

It have four named storms in the upcoming days, 2011 may surpass the rate of named storms in 2005! In 2005, these were dates that the H, I, J, and K storms were named:
Harvey: August 3, 2005; can't surpass that
Irene: August 7, 2005; obviously can't surpass that either
Jose: August 22, 2005; slight chance of surpassing
Katrina: August 24, 2005; another chance of surpassing
However, the bigger possibly is with the Lee, because in 2005 it formed on August 31.
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18z GFS is running

Recon in two days
B. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 20/1800Z NEAR
15.0N 53.0W
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Quoting Drakoen:
The low level cloud motions shown on satellite imagery south of 93L suggests a closed low.


I agree.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Thanks Taz.


I understand analyst, Franklin came and gone before you could snap your fingers.

An easily forgettable storm.
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1241. Grothar
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yo Grothar, don't know if you're still on, but great job calling 98L in your blog this morning.


Thanks 09. It looked so good last night, I just thought I would mention it in my blog. Didn't know it would be this soon. I think it will move a little more WNW then NW though. It looks like a big one.


OK, go post the globe, now. :)

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Quoting kmanislander:
Wow, 98L already.

93L is heading for shore along the North Coast of Honduras if it doesn't pull up real soon. The center looks to be near 15.6 N and 81 W now.


I have it near 16.5N 80.4W
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I agree.The NHC is probally waiting until recon gets out there to check it out.
Is Recon going in tonight or will they wait till the morning
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This season is looking more and more active with every passing week.

If 93L becomes a tropical cyclone, which there is a very good chance it may, that makes 8 named storms.

Then 98L has the potential to become Irene, with 97L become Jose.

Lets not forget about that strong wave over central Africa that will be the most impressive wave so far to date in a couple of days, when it is emerging off Africa.

Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katia, all in August is a possibility.
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Quoting Tazmanian:





round 2


90L be comes DON

91L be comes EMILY

92L bust absorbed by Gert.

93L bust

94L be comes GERT

95L be comes FRANKLIN

96L bust
Um taz there's a chance 93L might still develope.
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1236. wpb
gfs 18z what's this run thinking????????
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1235. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:
Wow, 98L already.

93L is heading for shore along the North Coast of Honduras if it doesn't pull up real soon. The center looks to be near 15.6 N and 81 W now.



I agree.
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FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 19/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0308A CYCLONE
C. 19/0800Z
D. 15.0N 82.50W
E. 19/1130Z TO 19/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
`
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Thanks Taz.



any time
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Thank You Taz




your welcome


plzs note that i may have too chang things with 93L right now i have it a bust but ma be not any more
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Dewpoint is screwed up

Bryan Parkway, Dallas, Texas (PWS)
Scattered Clouds
108.5 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 99%
Dew Point: 108 °F
Wind: 2.7 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 30.15 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 261 °F


Oh that's kinda funny. lol
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Wow, 98L already.

93L is heading for shore along the North Coast of Honduras if it doesn't pull up real soon. The center looks to be near 15.6 N and 81 W now.

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1229. Drakoen
The low level cloud motions shown on satellite imagery south of 93L suggests a closed low.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



TropicalAnalystwx13 here you go good thing i keep track


95L be comes FRANKLIN


Thanks Taz.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
What happened to 94 95 96 L?
they came and left two of them became storms 96L have no idea what happen to that last I checked it was buggin Canada
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Quoting Levi32:
Assuming 93L becomes Harvey, 98L could potentially beat 97L to Irene's name, forcing 97L to become Jose if it develops.


Or we could see a surprise Irene from your favorite feature, a frontal boundary. Kinda like we saw with Franklin.
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Quoting Tazmanian:





round 2


90L be comes DON

91L be comes EMILY

92L bust absorbed by Gert.

93L bust

94L be comes GERT

95L be comes FRANKLIN

96L bust
Thank You Taz
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Dewpoint is screwed up

Bryan Parkway, Dallas, Texas (PWS)
Scattered Clouds
108.5 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 99%
Dew Point: 108 °F
Wind: 2.7 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 30.15 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 261 °F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


94L became Tropical Storm Gert, don't know about 95L, and 96L was an invest that developed to the north of Bermuda that has a good chance of becoming declared in post-season.



TropicalAnalystwx13 here you go good thing i keep track


95L be comes FRANKLIN
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1221. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:
Assuming 93L becomes Harvey, 98L could potentially beat 97L to Irene's name, forcing 97L to become Jose if it develops.


Who's on first?
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1220. WxLogic
18Z GFS Init:

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Quoting extreme236:
93L looks like a tropical depression to me...
I agree.The NHC is probally waiting until recon gets out there to check it out.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
outta control

Port of Houston, Houston, Texas (PWS)
Scattered Clouds
106.6 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 36%
Dew Point: 74 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Pressure: 29.81 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 121 °F


And here's your report from down south:

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Quoting extreme236:
93L looks like a tropical depression to me...
I agree.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MississippiWx:
If 93L isn't at least a TD right now, I will eat my computer.

It's either very weakly closed, or very near closing off
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1215. Levi32
Assuming 93L becomes Harvey, 98L could potentially beat 97L to Irene's name, forcing 97L to become Jose if it develops.
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Port of Houston, Houston, Texas (PWS)
Scattered Clouds
107 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 36%
Dew Point: 74 °F
Wind: 8.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 8.0 mph
Pressure: 29.82 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 122 °F
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1213. emcf30
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
30 MPH, 1006 MB.



That looks like the strongest one right out of the box.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
What happened to 94 95 96 L?





round 2


90L be comes DON

91L be comes EMILY

92L bust absorbed by Gert.

93L bust

94L be comes GERT

95L be comes FRANKLIN

96L bust
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Quoting FrankZapper:
What happened to 94 95 96 L?


94L became Tropical Storm Gert, don't know about 95L, and 96L was an invest that developed to the north of Bermuda that has a good chance of becoming declared in post-season.
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Yo Grothar, don't know if you're still on, but great job calling 98L in your blog this morning.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MississippiWx:
If 93L isn't at least a TD right now, I will eat my computer.



Yup, it's cookin' now.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
93L looks like a tropical depression to me...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Any guesses on a % for 98L?

I'd say 30-40%



Wow, Already?
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The 100-degree day records for southeast Texas...

A strong upper level ridge of high pressure is resulting in a
prolonged period of very hot temperatures across southeast Texas.
For the city of Houston the record has already been set for the
longest ever stretch of consecutive 100-degree days... with the
number approaching the record in College Station. In addition...
with each passing day we March ever closer to the all-time record
for the most 100-degree days for an entire Summer season at College
Station... Houston... and Houston/hobby.

Most consecutive 100-degree days at Houston (iah):
(records since 1889)

1. 18 days - ongoing as of 8/18/2011
2. 14 days - ending 7/19/1980
3. 11 days - ending 8/05/1998
4. 9 days - ending 7/03/1980
5. 8 days - ending 9/05/2000
6. 8 days - ending 8/21/1993
7. 8 days - ending 8/14/1962
8. 7 days - ending 6/29/2009
9. 7 days - ending 8/02/1986
10. 7 days - ending 6/22/1902

Most 100-degree days for an entire Summer at Houston (iah):
(records since 1889)

1. 32 days - 1980
2. 29 days - 2011 (ongoing as of 8/18/2011)
3. 24 days - 1998
4. 20 days - 2000
5. 19 days - 1902
6. 17 days - 2009
7. 16 days - 1909
8. 14 days - 1993
9. 13 days - 1907
10. 10 days - 1999
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What happened to 94 95 96 L?
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1203. xcool
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Quoting AllStar17:


Yep. If all three invests wind up developing, we'd have 6 August storms and the month still has a number of days remaining.
And let's not forget we still have September.My original prodiction for this season was 17.May have to up that forecast just a little.
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1201. Levi32
Quoting ncstorm:


what does that mean?


It means that in the absence of model forecasts, I would expect more of a westerly initial motion for 98L. However, there may be some weak upper-level vorticity in the region that we cannot easily see right now, which the models are spinning up into an upper low that could pull 98L northwest. We will see if it occurs.
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Quoting Levi32:
The GFS and Euro both show almost instantaneous NW motion from 98L, which seems odd given that the Azores High is solidly in place to the northwest. A northward component to the movement could be acquired later, but I would favor a more westward movement to start off with.

Yeah I was thinking the same thing Levi steering pattern doesn't quite match the models!!!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
I say that 93L COC is at 16.5N 80.5W moving WNW and I am not buying the one on the atcf
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO, 10-20% on the African wave. They'll want to watch for further persistence, remember 93L.. looked pretty good too for a while.


But never that good. Didn't have much, if any, circulation.
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If 93L isn't at least a TD right now, I will eat my computer.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1196. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


Big trough out in the Eastern Subtropical Atlantic


Yes, but that is not the feature that the pouch people are referring to. The feature cited does not appear on initializations, but develops in 36-48 hours.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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