Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
I do not post often, but MUST RANT on people calling storms by a name before they are named.

How can you call a storm Irene when Harvey hasnt even been named yet.

PLEASE for the love of God call it by its current designation!

END OF RANT, back to lurking.

Somewhere over Kenya, a cumulus cloud that is the gestational seed of pre-Katia has heard your rant, and wept... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13526
3493. ncstorm
Quoting MyrtleCanes:



What?!?


yes, some new tourism plan for Myrtle Beach..to attract more people to their area as if they didnt have enough..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15279
3490. angiest
I went back through comments in the last half hour or so and didn't find it, so if this is a duplicate, my apologies:

084
URNT12 KNHC 191417
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082011
A. 19/13:57:30Z
B. 16 deg 04 min N
083 deg 27 min W
C. 850 mb 1459 m
D. 35 kt
E. 356 deg 17 nm
F. 103 deg 40 kt
G. 354 deg 42 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 15 C / 1538 m
J. 20 C / 1526 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0308A CYCLONE OB 17
MAX FL WIND 40 KT N QUAD 13:44:20Z
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
3489. MahFL
The HH are tasked with a flight to 56W tomorrow, re Randy, the the WU blogger.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nola70119:
What time is it?


Third week in August.....watch out!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tiggeriffic:


and i bet you store raw meat on the top shelf of your fridge, use a sponge to wash dishes, and towel dry your dishes as well...you can do as you please, however, safety is always first and in all good conscience how can you tell people it is ok to wash a milk jug and drink the water knowing they may not do it properly and could get sick? The handle, the rim and the cap harbor protien bacteria after reaching certain temperatures...I have taken all the food prep courses and safety courses due to my position at work...i deal with kids...we have rules...i follow those rules...my kids don't get sick...restraunts and such that dont follow rules have high tendancy for food poisoning...i rarely eat out as i have gotten sick from one of those establishments...and they had the A rating on the door...if someone does NOT have experience in the proper way to do something...dont chance it...period...


As I said before tigger....leave it to the professionals...

You can actually use a gallon Roundup container to store water if cleansed and neutralized properly.

But I understand your point.

Geez...can we beat this to death a bit more....

I have a 500 gallon cistern at my house in Fl. as well as a 12,000 gallon cistern in Abaco.

I am covered.

Don't understand why more people in the states don't have cisterns or at least a 55 gal container attached to a gutter......


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
If that were to play out wolftribe, Florida would be in for a whole bunch of rain and wind.
we could be in for extremely heavy rain merritt island is infected with salt water marsh mosquitos now going to get worse
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Am looking forward to a new blog by Dr. Masters to address the 97L, 98L issue. Not discouting #8; however, all eyes are on these big CV waves which the NHC and models are all developing!
p.s. now that DoomCon is rising where is DJ?~!
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3483. ncstorm
Quoting K8eCane:


Thats a pet peeve of mine! I live here and our region is known as Cape Fear but youwill NOT find an address as Cape Fear NC


yep! but the The Weather Channel thinks we are called Cape Fear, NC..it never failed in past hurricanes that they called us that.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15279
I am going to be extra vigilent this weekend in monitoring squirrel activity. I will report back on any hoarding or abnormal behavior I see. We've already seen video last night of a squirrel playing chicken with a Ferrari. Not sure where that took place but I would up that location's chances of a landfall substantially!

And for crying out loud, if you see a squirrel with a bag of Cheetohs, seek shelter immediately!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What time is it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
I do not post often, but MUST RANT on people calling storms by a name before they are named.

How can you call a storm Irene when Harvey hasnt even been named yet.

PLEASE for the love of God call it by its current designation!

END OF RANT, back to lurking.


Can you call it Harvey OR Irene?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KaNaPaPiJoSa:
He was banned. stormw dot com


Thanks for the link. I used to have it but my computer crashed and I lost everything.

Also, I thought he didn't get banned. He just got fed up and left.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


LOL..no I dont consider the Cape fear, NC an actual place, people get confused because we have the Cape Fear River and most people conflict that with the name of our region..I am trying to find an article that I read about a month ago where they were actually trying to name Myrtle Beach, SC as the new Cape Fear, thus Cape Fear, SC..



What?!?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3475. angiest
Did no one post the recent VDM? Might support naming.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
3474. nigel20

whats up guys? Greg is not looking too good this morning.
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they'll task a recon out there tomorrow and watch they'll find a td around 55w
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Quoting Chicklit:
Lotta dry air out in front of 97L, but that's been said before.
You call that alot?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3471. K8eCane
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
I do not post often, but MUST RANT on people calling storms by a name before they are named.

How can you call a storm Irene when Harvey hasnt even been named yet.

PLEASE for the love of God call it by its current designation!

END OF RANT, back to lurking.



+ 10 more thousand
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3470. angiest
Quoting P451:
I'm going to make it real easy for everyone today. You can put down the every 6 hour model runs of DOOM. You can stop saying "Now its HOUSTON!" "No wait NOW ITS NOLA!" "No, now it's FLORIDA!"

And just accept the reality in regards to 97L as it stands today.




The above stands to be the most realistic model run possible until 97L undergoes development. Before it develops it needs to organize. This is going to take a couple of days.

At this point in the game the model runs mean little beyond the general idea that a storm may form and threaten a broad area in the coming days. There is no precision involved.



Funny, the darker shading in that matches closely my idea of the "highest" risk area for this developing system. How did I get there?

Looking at all those long range models.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting islander101010:
going to see strengthening 97 just alittle north in its west course dead eye on the boriquens home


What you're talking about? We don't need this in Borinquen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3468. msphar
97L has had a flat trajectory since 37.9W through 47.3W at 12Z today. It seems likely that this trajectory will continue similar to 93L or possibly Emily which climbed a bit in the Caribbean. The models are showing a turn at 52W to WNW. I wonder about that.
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3467. srada
Quoting FLdewey:


That clears it all up... TIA


the sale of cheetos just went up with that map!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3466. K8eCane
Quoting DookiePBC:


Wow...for the first time ever, we'd honestly be able to say "WE ARE ALL DOOM" and mean it!!!!



+ 10,000
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If that were to play out wolftribe, Florida would be in for a whole bunch of rain and wind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I do not post often, but MUST RANT on people calling storms by a name before they are named.

How can you call a storm Irene when Harvey hasnt even been named yet.

PLEASE for the love of God call it by its current designation!

END OF RANT, back to lurking.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wolftribe2009:
GFS has became the DOOM forecaster with "Irene".

It shows Irene rapidly intensifying near Cuba at 168 Hours

Link

Then at 204 hours it is a 982 MB storm near Key West Florida

Link

When the storm gets to 228 Hours, it is a 976 MB Storm slamming into Tampa Bay

Link

240 Hours out the storm is still at 979 MB storm near Savannah, Georgia

Link

252 Hours out and the storm is a 982 MB storm over the Carolinas.

Link

The storm then begins to intensify once it nears Maine at 274 Hours

Link

Now the model is probably going to change it's mind but a 982 MB storm from Georgia to Maine is very BAD! There will be major flooding along it's path; especially in the Maryland/Virginia area.



Wow...for the first time ever, we'd honestly be able to say "WE ARE ALL DOOM" and mean it!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:
I'm going to make it real easy for everyone today. You can put down the every 6 hour model runs of DOOM. You can stop saying "Now its HOUSTON!" "No wait NOW ITS NOLA!" "No, now it's FLORIDA!"

And just accept the reality in regards to 97L as it stands today.




The above stands to be the most realistic model run possible until 97L undergoes development. Before it develops it needs to organize. This is going to take a couple of days.

At this point in the game the model runs mean little beyond the general idea that a storm may form and threaten a broad area in the coming days. There is no precision involved.



Well said man.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3461. scott39
Seminoles fan--that was . after sales
Quoting scott39:
Businesses big and small have Insurance to cover all losses. This includes sales? The bank requires it. Someone that pays cash to build a business is going to have the same insurance. They are not going to risk that much money. So as you can see, proprietors dont suffer. The choice will come back when they rebuild those restaurants, while my stores are hiring more people, servicing the community and helping the economy.
That was a . after sales not a ?
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3460. MahFL
Quoting PreacherMan5000:
Where has StormW been? I haven't seen him out here all season!


He was banned last year for promoting his own website too much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:
I'm going to make it real easy for everyone today. You can put down the every 6 hour model runs of DOOM. You can stop saying "Now its HOUSTON!" "No wait NOW ITS NOLA!" "No, now it's FLORIDA!"

And just accept the reality in regards to 97L as it stands today.




The above stands to be the most realistic model run possible until 97L undergoes development. Before it develops it needs to organize. This is going to take a couple of days.

At this point in the game the model runs mean little beyond the general idea that a storm may form and threaten a broad area in the coming days. There is no precision involved.



Completely agree. Looking at it this way is much more realistic and removes some of the emotional bickering assoc with absurd specific landfalls suggested so early on..
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3458. K8eCane
Quoting 69Viking:


According to Mapquest Cape Fear is an official suburb of Wilmington, just do a search for Cape Fear, NC on Mapquest and it's there!


Thats a pet peeve of mine! I live here and our region is known as Cape Fear but youwill NOT find an address as Cape Fear NC
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Quoting ncstorm:


Gas prices would be ridiculous if 97L survived the passage and enter the GOM..I would have to invest in a scooter


I think I'll put enough gas in the boat this weekend to make sure I have enough for Labor Day weekend, after that the boat pretty much gets parked so no more gas needed for it until the Spring time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS has became the DOOM forecaster with "Irene".

It shows Irene rapidly intensifying near Cuba at 168 Hours

Link

Then at 204 hours it is a 982 MB storm near Key West Florida

Link

When the storm gets to 228 Hours, it is a 976 MB Storm slamming into Tampa Bay

Link

240 Hours out the storm is still at 979 MB storm near Savannah, Georgia

Link

252 Hours out and the storm is a 982 MB storm over the Carolinas.

Link

The storm then begins to intensify once it nears Maine at 274 Hours

Link

Now the model is probably going to change it's mind but a 982 MB storm from Georgia to Maine is very BAD! There will be major flooding along it's path; especially in the Maryland/Virginia area.

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3454. Grothar
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Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 530
Lotta dry air out in front of 97L, but that's been said before.
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3451. MahFL
Quoting presslord:
well....thanks to y'all for some interesting conversation....I am off to lie on the beach and ogle girls in bikinis...who, alas, probably view me as Daddy....but, fortunately, not yet Grandaddy...


Sounds like a plan !
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3450. fmbill
Quoting TampaSpin:


Just saying the NAM is not a Guidance Model......its a model used to see Thunderstorm Development over a 24-36 hour period. Suggest you use the GFS, CMC, NOGAP, BAM's, UKMET, HWRF as example to use........Go to my blog i have many of them up and running.


Well said. I heard someone say, "Tha NAM trying to model a tropical system is like the GFDL trying to model a blizzard."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yep, I'm noticing that as well. She's holding her own. And the environment will only become more conducive down the road.

I think the low and mid-level air isn't as dry as it was for previous systems. However, the dry air in the higher levels (as depicted by the WV imagery) isn't all that prolific either. While it's present, it's not enough to really choke to death a larger system we have with 97L.


Yeah conditions are beginning to improve, and remember the models don't really showing it organizing much till after it crosses the islands. However after looking so lame yesterday, today's improvement has the the thing looking more believable. Still though, forecasting intensity is known to be quite poor the NOAA will admit, so we shall wait and see. Lets hope the models are wrong about everything so far lol.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Pouch People point to a upper level cut-off low that will develop, creating a weakness in the ridge.


Thanks! Tampa I guess thought I was talking about 97L when I really was wondering about 98L. It's going to be interesting, a couple more strong waves coming off Africa in the next week!
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97l continues west and is nearing 50W. the steering currents have it continuing west for the weekend. the models will have to shift more to the left on their next run. at the moment the system will have to take a sharp nright turn to fall in line with the models' last run
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3446. fmbill
Quoting P451:
I'm going to make it real easy for everyone today. You can put down the every 6 hour model runs of DOOM. You can stop saying "Now its HOUSTON!" "No wait NOW ITS NOLA!" "No, now it's FLORIDA!"

And just accept the reality in regards to 97L as it stands today.




The above stands to be the most realistic model run possible until 97L undergoes development. Before it develops it needs to organize. This is going to take a couple of days.

At this point in the game the model runs mean little beyond the general idea that a storm may form and threaten a broad area in the coming days. There is no precision involved.



But that takes all the fun out of being here! :-)

Actually, I enjoy the discussion here. But, as an emergency manager, when it comes to giving solid direction & implementing our plans, I use nothing but real data interpreted from real experts.

(No offense...)

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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