Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
only one of those runs that seem logical based on current conditions is BAMS.... unless the models expect the ULL to rapidly move east...

Quoting MississippiWx:
If 93L isn't at least a TD right now, I will eat my computer.

Be kinda hard to blog like that... unless u can keystroke with your intestines...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21473
Based off of the GFS, looks like 98L will beat 97L to a name. 48 hours:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1294. Drakoen
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
36 hours out, 98L looks to be on the verge of becoming a tropical storm, if it isn't one yet.



Big weakness in the eastern Atlantic. To induce poleward movement of 98L.
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Quoting Levi32:


It's at literally the exact same coordinates as the 12z run at that time.


Pretty much. Starts to organize by 48 hours.
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1291. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


The models generate a mid-upper low northwest of the system by 48 hours out. To me it looks like it appears out of nowhere, which is suspicious, but it is just possible that there is some upper vorticity in the region that we can't really see on satellite imagery, which the models spin up into a full-blown cut-off low within 2 days. We will see. I still have reservations about an immediate northwest movement like the models show.


They could also be responding to the expected retreat of the eastern periphery of the High expected in the 48-120 hour time frame. If it is a strong system, and it appears to be, it should respond to that. However, the ridge is expected to build back, which could then move the system more westerly, albeit at a higher latitude.
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1290. wpb
nhc may jump on 98l due to proximity to cape verde islands
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Quoting xcool:
Nice image! you clearly see where the ITCZ is from the WPAC on the right of the screen all the way to the CPAC.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, it's already falling apart. It was coming at me, then died for the most part.


We had a piece of energy break off from the frontal boundary located off the East Coast come here early this morning, unexpectedly produced a waterspout. My dad got a picture of it.



P.S. No, it isn't fake.
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1287. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
18Z GFS may show a weaker system than previous runs, can tell it has land interaction to deal with.



It's at literally the exact same coordinates as the 12z run at that time.
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Quoting Levi32:


The models generate a mid-upper low northwest of the system by 48 hours out. To me it looks like it appears out of nowhere, which is suspicious, but it is just possible that there is some upper vorticity in the region that we can't really see on satellite imagery, which the models spin up into a full-blown cut-off low within 2 days. We will see. I still have reservations about an immediate northwest movement like the models show.


I just ran the NE atlantic WV loop to see if there was anything in the works that might be diving down soon but nothing of note. Of course 48 hours is quite a ways out so we'll have to wait on that. Very odd for the high to break down that quickly though
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1285. wn1995
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What percentages will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 93L at 8PM?

A. 60%
B. 70%
C. 80%
D. 90%
E. ~100% or declaration

Q: What percentages will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 97L at 8PM?

A. ~0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Lower/Higher or declaration

Q: What percentages will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 98L at 8PM?

A. ~0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Lower/Higher or declaration

EBC.



ECC
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Quoting 69Viking:
Quite an interesting blob in Southern MS and LA heading straight for the GOM's warm waters! I'm sure it's nothing but you never know this time of year!


Yeah, it's already falling apart. It was coming at me, then died for the most part.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
18Z GFS may show a weaker system than previous runs, can tell it has land interaction to deal with.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What percentages will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 93L at 8PM?

A. 60%
B. 70%
C. 80%
D. 90%
E. ~100% or declaration

Q: What percentages will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 97L at 8PM?

A. ~0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Lower/Higher or declaration

Q: What percentages will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 98L at 8PM?

A. ~0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Lower/Higher or declaration

EBC.



Q1 93L: E

Q2 97L: B

Q3: 98L:D
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36 hours out, 98L looks to be on the verge of becoming a tropical storm, if it isn't one yet.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1277. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:49 PM EDT on August 18, 2011

I'm thinking E, B, D.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quite an interesting blob in Southern MS and LA heading straight for the GOM's warm waters! I'm sure it's nothing but you never know this time of year!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What percentages will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 93L at 8PM?

A. 60%
B. 70%
C. 80%
D. 90%
E. ~100% or declaration

Q: What percentages will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 97L at 8PM?

A. ~0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Lower/Higher or declaration

Q: What percentages will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 98L at 8PM?

A. ~0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Lower/Higher or declaration

EBC.



EBB
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Q: What percentages will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 93L at 8PM?

A. 60%
B. 70%
C. 80%
D. 90%
E. ~100% or declaration

Q: What percentages will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 97L at 8PM?

A. ~0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Lower/Higher or declaration

Q: What percentages will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 98L at 8PM?

A. ~0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Lower/Higher or declaration

EBC.

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The best area of spin that I've seen with 93L has been located on the SW side of the cloud canopy today. With the strong convection firing on the northern and eastern side, a slight relocation to the north could be in order and that could give it just the amount of room it needed to miss the coast until it reaches Belize.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
1274. Grothar
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1273. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:
98L will not be heading to the NW any time soon with this type of set up unless it breaks down right away.



The models generate a mid-upper low northwest of the system by 48 hours out. To me it looks like it appears out of nowhere, which is suspicious, but it is just possible that there is some upper vorticity in the region that we can't really see on satellite imagery, which the models spin up into a full-blown cut-off low within 2 days. We will see. I still have reservations about an immediate northwest movement like the models show.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
wonder why they have 93L moving W the steering flow says WNW-NW from 12-13N-20-25N 75-88W


Steering from where 93L is now is W to WSW. That is why it is heading for the coast of Honduras.
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1271. MTWX
Quoting FrankZapper:
Wow! This is NOT a slow season. On track with 2005.

Would be an interesting record though, wouldn't it... 2011 most named storms, 0 hurricanes... LOL (I know one will eventually form, just saying)
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Quoting tropicfreak:


I think 93L WILL develop, maybe already has developed.
It has the look of a T.D all ready.
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1269. wpb
bill gray has 3-5 major hurricanes this season.

a.no
b.no
c.no
d.no
e.no
f.no
g.no
maybe 98l but may track over cooler waters
97l maybe if it gets into gof.
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1267. Levi32
The pressure falls since the last diurnal peak with 97L (top) are on par with the pressure falls near 93L (bottom):



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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Tomorrow morning is when they are going and they may be too late.
That would be better on the US economy but worse for our economy if this thing develops rapidly and hits Belize City
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
24 hours out, 93L already made landfall:



Wow they are already showing 98L as a TD!
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
wonder why they have 93L moving W the steering flow says WNW-NW from 12-13N-20-25N 75-88W


That is incorrect...The steering flow is mainly towards the WSW.
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24 hours out, 93L already made landfall:

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98L will not be heading to the NW any time soon with this type of set up unless it breaks down right away.

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1260. xcool
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wonder why they have 93L moving W the steering flow says WNW-NW from 12-13N-20-25N 75-88W
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Any guesses on a % for 98L?

I'd say 30-40%


My TWO on that:
THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST OFF AFRICA HAS SHOWED STRONG SIGNS OF ORGANISATION.THE PRESSURES IN AREA ARE VERY LOW AND FALLING,AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.THE WAVE HAS ALSO SUPPORT FROM COMPUTER MODELS.THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...FOR THIS WAVE TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT 48 HOURS
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18 hours out:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting belizeit:
Is Recon going in tonight or will they wait till the morning



Tomorrow morning is when they are going and they may be too late.
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Quoting belizeit:
Is Recon going in tonight or will they wait till the morning
No there not going out tonight.Their going out tomorrow.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This season is looking more and more active with every passing week.

If 93L becomes a tropical cyclone, which there is a very good chance it may, that makes 8 named storms.

Then 98L has the potential to become Irene, with 97L become Jose.

Lets not forget about that strong wave over central Africa that will be the most impressive wave so far to date in a couple of days, when it is emerging off Africa.

Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katia, all in August is a possibility.
Wow! This is NOT a slow season. On track with 2005.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Um taz there's a chance 93L might still develope.



i no i chang it when it froms
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
2004 had the most number of Atlantic named storms in August, with 8.

While I do not think we will reach this number, we will definitely come close (Tie for 2nd place).
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I have it near 16.5N 80.4W


Too high and too far east IMO
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Um taz there's a chance 93L might still develope.


I think 93L WILL develop, maybe already has developed.
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12.6, 17.6 is like right off the African coast. Not even south of the CVs yet...

Sure hope it turns out early, like forecasts were calling, and doesn't instead become one of those long-track monsters....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21473
Quoting Drakoen:
Could have 3 to 4 named storms over the next few days. 93L, 97L, 98L, and the wave behind 98L.

It have four named storms in the upcoming days, 2011 may surpass the rate of named storms in 2005! In 2005, these were dates that the H, I, J, and K storms were named:
Harvey: August 3, 2005; can't surpass that
Irene: August 7, 2005; obviously can't surpass that either
Jose: August 22, 2005; slight chance of surpassing
Katrina: August 24, 2005; another chance of surpassing
However, the bigger possibly is with the Lee, because in 2005 it formed on August 31.
Member Since: August 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 244

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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