Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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man we are not even too SEP yet
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115340
looks like 97L IS GOING TO BE DEALING WITH THE SAL ALL THE WAY TO 55W...very little convection now in 97L..Ireally dont think it will be that much of a problem for the islands or puerto rico.if it goes over dom rep and haiti it will be very weak as this moves into the bahamas...no way this becomes a strong hurricane to many interuptions...97L WILL BE LUCKY TO REACH CAT 1 STRENGTH...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Quite the trough attempting to tug 97L northward. Tropical depression emerging off of Africa.

108 hours:

Hmmm... haven't seen that since Bertha, right?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
1393. FLdewey
Oh lord spud... now you started a hubris run.
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IMO, and I'm sure most would agree with me, that 93L is finally a TD, if not a TS. CA and Belize needs to keep tabs on this system.

Levi I know that this is a lonnnng way out but is there a possibility of 98L affecting the US? Just curious.
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Quoting alvarig1263:


There is an app called "Hurricane HD" by the developer Kitty Code. It is $2.99 but has nice iPad graphics and all the basic NHC satellite loops (visible, rainbow, water vapor) in all the regions including the floaters. I own it and it is well worth the $2.99 IMO - Check it out...


Have it on the Iphone and love it.
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Quoting Thrawst:


E
B
B
Hey, Thrawst.... enjoy today's rain? So far we seem to have accumulated about 1/2 inch.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
1389. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


that's true, but Grothar put it on his blog.
right after i posted CV AOI on my page at 900am this morning
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54782
1388. WxLogic
144HR:

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Just about the same position the ECMWF had 98L in 144 hours on the 12z run. Obviously, in this model it's a well developed cyclone and on the ECMWF it was an open wave. 6 days out:

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Right now with the thunderstorm that's occuring outside it feels as though 93L is over on top me.
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1385. Levi32
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
GFS continues to bring 97L over Cuba and Hispaniola.

Doesn't bode well for the system.


But bodes very bad for Hispaniola.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hey what about me I said watch this wave since yesterday morning, cause I noticed the SAL was getting pushed out of the way by 97L :)


that's true, but Grothar put it on his blog.
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Does anyone know how to view satellite loops on an iPad since you can't use flash player, I'm at the hospital visiting my mom so I'm limited, but still trying to keep up!! LoL


There is an app called "Hurricane HD" by the developer Kitty Code. It is $2.99 but has nice iPad graphics and all the basic NHC satellite loops (visible, rainbow, water vapor) in all the regions including the floaters. I own it and it is well worth the $2.99 IMO - Check it out...
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Quoting Levi32:


Well visible low-level cloud movements near the Nicaraguan coast look to be out of the NNE. It is possible that an afternoon seabreeze may be distorting the wind to more of an easterly direction at Puerto Cabezas. It's definitely a borderline circulation, whether it truly is closed or not, and if it is closed, it's barely so.


See my edit of that post re N and NNW winds from several stations in Honduras
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Quoting P451:


Yep. Shame the plane had problems otherwise it would have sampled the center and might still be out there making passes.

We would know more.

Beyond that I think it's now inevitable that 93L will finish off it's circulation center and be upgraded.

The only difference is maybe it already has but the upgrade will just come late.

Largely inconsequential I think - other than from a wanting to know now stand point.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
or I can just paddle my boat out there with my anemometer to check for west winds :P
Maybe tomorrow morning is when the NHC will upgrade.GT that's not a good idea.
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1380. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:


One small problem though is that Puerto Cabezas in Nicaragua has east winds at 15km/h. If 93L had a closed low the winds there would have to be out of either the NNE, N or NNW IMO.

Pressure there is low though, 1008 mbs but circulation with 93L probably still not closed.


Well visible low-level cloud movements near the Nicaraguan coast look to be out of the NNE. It is possible that an afternoon seabreeze may be distorting the wind to more of an easterly direction at Puerto Cabezas. It's definitely a borderline circulation, whether it truly is closed or not, and if it is closed, it's barely so.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Would 98L not be too far West to feel that by then ?
Something I saw earlier today was implying an almost due north track even over the CVs, I suppose in response to that weakness.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
Quoting Levi32:
The pressure north of 93L's center is down to 1008mb, very respectable.


45 mph and pressures below 1008 the only thing we need is a flipping recon
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1377. nigel20
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8311
Out for now
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steering flow

93L WNW-NW
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
In the interest of giving credit where credit is due....Grothar called 98L in his blog update this morning.

He has been doing a good job this season and his blog is easy to understand for the none pseudo-met.
Hey what about me I said watch this wave since yesterday morning, cause I noticed the SAL was getting pushed out of the way by 97L :)
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1373. WxLogic
120HR:



Interacted with DR and emerging on NW coast as a weaker system as expected.
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1372. nigel20

Whats up guys? I see we now have 98L.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8311
In the interest of giving credit where credit is due....Grothar called 98L in his blog update this morning.

He has been doing a good job this season and his blog is easy to understand for the non pseudo-met.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Quite the trough attempting to tug 97L northward. Tropical depression emerging off of Africa.

108 hours:

Katia?
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GFS continues to bring 97L over Cuba and Hispaniola.

Doesn't bode well for the system.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15945
93L is probably a TD at this time, satellite and buoy imagery indicates that there is a closed circulation, and probably warrants an ugprade.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
We need recon badly.
or I can just paddle my boat out there with my anemometer to check for west winds :P
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1366. P451
Quoting washingtonian115:
We need recon badly.


Yep. Shame the plane had problems otherwise it would have sampled the center and might still be out there making passes.

We would know more.

Beyond that I think it's now inevitable that 93L will finish off it's circulation center and be upgraded.

The only difference is maybe it already has but the upgrade will just come late.

Largely inconsequential I think - other than from a wanting to know now stand point.

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Quoting Levi32:
The pressure north of 93L's center is down to 1008mb, very respectable.

Which means the pressure near the center is probably near 1006mb.
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Could go just north of Honduras. It's going to be a close call.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1363. WxLogic
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Decent tropical cyclone affecting Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic in a little less than 4 days. Right now would be a good time to get supplies ready.



Less land interaction so far.
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Quoting Levi32:


It's on the line lol. 2 hours ago I saw no westerly winds. I see evidence of some very weak ones now. It may take more than that to get the NHC to upgrade.


One small problem though is that Puerto Cabezas in Nicaragua has east winds at 15km/h. If 93L had a closed low the winds there would have to be out of either the NNE, N or NNW IMO.

Pressure there is low though, 1008 mbs but circulation with 93L probably still not closed.

EDIT

Several stations in Honduras reporting N or NNW winds. 93L may be closed or closing off.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
97L is in 80 degree water according to weather channel but soon will be in 85 to 86 degree water, is this what will cause it to develop or are there other factors too?
That and other factors.Such as favorable shear.
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Quite the trough attempting to tug 97L northward. Tropical depression emerging off of Africa.

108 hours:

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Quoting bigwes6844:
93L u mean?

Yes error
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97L is in 80 degree water according to weather channel but soon will be in 85 to 86 degree water, is this what will cause it to develop or are there other factors too?
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Quoting Vincent4989:
I woke up and 98L was still an invest ,The reason is: The plane broke!
93L u mean?
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1355. Levi32
The pressure north of 93L's center is down to 1008mb, very respectable.

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Quoting P451:


Danny had a well defined surface circulation. 93L never has and it appears we're still waiting for it to finish closing one off.

Danny's convection was sheared 100s of miles away from it's center - and I felt that alone meant it should not have been upgraded.

NHC felt otherwise.

This go around you have good convection (not the deepest but good) and good mid level rotation. However the surface feature is in question.

We need recon badly.
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I woke up and 98L was still an invest ,The reason is: The plane broke!
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1352. P451
Quoting washingtonian115:
No one can't tell me that 93L isn't at least a T.D.If the NHC can give a name to Danny back in 09(Which was very ugly) then 93L deserves to be a T.D.


Danny had a well defined surface circulation. 93L never has and it appears we're still waiting for it to finish closing one off.

Danny's convection was sheared 100s of miles away from it's center - and I felt that alone meant it should not have been upgraded.

NHC felt otherwise.

This go around you have good convection (not the deepest but good) and good mid level rotation. However the surface feature is in question.

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1351. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


No, the weakness continues to become better established as we speak.


This is true. However, the models show a cut-off low that develops northwest of the wave to be the culprit, not the Canary trough, which looks a bit too far east to induce a straight NW motion. It may pull a little bit on 98L, but if the models are correct, the abrupt NW move would be due to a new cut-off low developing northwest of the wave's position, which would be in a better position favor a northwest motion.
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This 93L has to be T.S. Harvey. Its gotta be bumped up to a 40 mph storm when thay get the info. in
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1349. FLdewey
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Does anyone know how to view satellite loops on an iPad since you can't use flash player, I'm at the hospital visiting my mom so I'm limited, but still trying to keep up!! LoL


Lots of stuff in the app store... pretty much the best way.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Decent tropical cyclone affecting Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic in a little less than 4 days. Right now would be a good time to get supplies ready.

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And now for something (not) completely different: CMC has a low form off Hatteras this evening with a pretty interesting sub-tropical structure and some impressive deepeening.

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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