Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MississippiWx:
Landfall in Houston...Lol.




IKE part 2
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1444. nigel20

Invest 97L
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8485
Quoting tropicfreak:


Heck at least it will bring Texas that wonderful 4 letter word that begins with the letter R.

rice?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Does anyone know how to view satellite loops on an iPad since you can't use flash player, I'm at the hospital visiting my mom so I'm limited, but still trying to keep up!! LoL


Get an android tablet instead of an Ipad they are 10 times better. And they have flash which rocks, you don't truly have the internet unless you have flash.;p
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Quoting IceCoast:
Ouch.


wow, that looks like it could cover TX, looks like a bad one though. Don't want that part of it. Just rain....
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I put the COC of 93L at 16.8N/80.5W, no way imo this will go onshore Honduras, Belize or southern Mexico maybe.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Got this from AccuWeather.com

Tropical Activity

Mid-August through the end of September is typically the most active part of hurricane season, and the tropics are expected to behave accordingly.

The team is predicting five or six more named storms in the Atlantic Basin during September and one more in October. One or two of those storms are expected to make a direct hit on the U.S.

AccuWeather.com Tropical Expert Dan Kottlowski stated that these impacts will mostly likely be somewhere along the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Hatteras, N.C. He also mentioned that areas from Florida into the Carolinas have a slightly higher chance of being hit.

North of Hatteras, chances are minimal.



TexasHurricane if that comes ture that could give us vary cloes too 21 or overe name storms that is if 93 97 and 98L be come name storms
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1438. WxLogic
18Z GFS appears to like Texas now.
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Quoting IceCoast:
Ouch.


Heck at least it will bring Texas that wonderful 4 letter word that begins with the letter R.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Landfall in Houston...Lol.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1434. Levi32
Oh gee....A Houston hurricane on the GFS. That wasn't expected.

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Quoting Tazmanian:




98L is up
93L looks like finally TD
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22734
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Oh wow thanks bought it, luv it!!


Your very welcome. Enjoy...
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1430. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
If anything the GFS has been consistent on track for today's runs.




It sure has...
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Quoting MississippiWx:
192...in Central Gulf



Oh god the blog will go in panic mode!
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
93L pulling more WNW IMO.It has also slowed considerably since yesterday!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
looks like by then it's time for you to board up MWX.


Lol...Yeah, still a long way out.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting Patrap:
Wassup?





98L is up
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Got this from AccuWeather.com

Tropical Activity

Mid-August through the end of September is typically the most active part of hurricane season, and the tropics are expected to behave accordingly.

The team is predicting five or six more named storms in the Atlantic Basin during September and one more in October. One or two of those storms are expected to make a direct hit on the U.S.

AccuWeather.com Tropical Expert Dan Kottlowski stated that these impacts will mostly likely be somewhere along the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Hatteras, N.C. He also mentioned that areas from Florida into the Carolinas have a slightly higher chance of being hit.

North of Hatteras, chances are minimal.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ouch.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Heck, I thought I was on everyone's ignore list...Who knew?


You're on my 'ignore' list
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting MississippiWx:
192...in Central Gulf

looks like by then it's time for you to board up MWX.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
192...in Central Gulf





YAY here comes $5 gas
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting P451:


80 minutes - barring a special upgrade before then. (8pm et)






thank you
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1419. Patrap
Wassup?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
If anything the GFS has been consistent on track for today's runs.


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192...in Central Gulf

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1415. xcool
gfs copy 12z Euro



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1414. nigel20
98L is probably the best looking tropical wave of the season.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8485
18z GFS very similar to 12z Euro:

186...

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1412. WxLogic
18z GFS almost like 12Z ECMWF

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Quoting FLdewey:
Oh lord spud... now you started a hubris run.


Heck, I thought I was on everyone's ignore list...Who knew?
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
1409. emcf30
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Does anyone know how to view satellite loops on an iPad since you can't use flash player, I'm at the hospital visiting my mom so I'm limited, but still trying to keep up!! LoL

XWT. Download Skyfire. I use it on my Iphone and I able to get all the Satellite loops and ect. I downloaded just for that reason. I believe it cost under $5.00

just saw the post on Hurricane HD. I'm checking that out now
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Quoting HurrikanEB:


Can't see scraping the coast being be much healthier for it :/


40-50 miles off shore would be enough room for it to strengthen.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting MississippiWx:
Could go just north of Honduras. It's going to be a close call.




Honduras has some decent coastal mountains thought, still wouldn't be the best situation for a developing depression :/
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GFS 174 hours:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
how soon be for the next atcf update
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
If bouy reports have sustained 45 mph winds the nhc can't ignore it.... 8 o'clock ts but maybe the nhc is cautious and waits for a recon
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Quoting cloudburst2011:
looks like 97L IS GOING TO BE DEALING WITH THE SAL ALL THE WAY TO 55W...very little convection now in 97L..Ireally dont think it will be that much of a problem for the islands or puerto rico.if it goes over dom rep and haiti it will be very weak as this moves into the bahamas...no way this becomes a strong hurricane to many interuptions...97L WILL BE LUCKY TO REACH CAT 1 STRENGTH...

At least the SAL will no longer be a problem when 97 reaches the Carribean.
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Quoting alvarig1263:


There is an app called "Hurricane HD" by the developer Kitty Code. It is $2.99 but has nice iPad graphics and all the basic NHC satellite loops (visible, rainbow, water vapor) in all the regions including the floaters. I own it and it is well worth the $2.99 IMO - Check it out...
Oh wow thanks bought it, luv it!!
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1400. nigel20

97L is pushing the SAL out of the way, it should move into a more favorable area over the next day or two
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8485
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
right after i posted CV AOI on my page at 900am this morning


Ok, ok, Everyone that predicted 98L would be an invest today raise your hand.

While we're at it, everyone that predicted 93L to be maybe a TD at this point....raise your hand.:^)
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
what see


93L sould be come TD 8


97L sould be come TD 9


and 98L sould be come TD 10



am starting too wounder if we will make it too the W storm this year it seen like we are well under way
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting GTcooliebai:
or I can just paddle my boat out there with my anemometer to check for west winds :P
One would hope u had at least a couple of decent outboards, man!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22734
man we are not even too SEP yet
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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