Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Because it's fun???? We love to watch cyclogenesis?

So.... why are you here?


I enjoy watching cyclogenesis, but I don't LOVE watching it. Been lurking on this board for many years, rarely post, hoping to learn.

I enjoy watching cyclogenesis because one of lifes mysterys is what really converts one wave into a whirling deadly machine and another, under the exact same circumstance fizzle and die? Is it as simple as Erik Larson wrote, "and then a butterfly opened his wings" or is there some scientific evidence yet to be discovered?

I am not a wishcaster, doomcaster or downcaster. I don't pretend to know what any given storm is going to do and when I see a multitude of people pretending they can, I'll make a reality check post.
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1495. nigel20
Quoting thelmores:


now THAT is a classic Cape Verde wave!!!!


Yep
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7978
Quoting MississippiWx:
12z GFS/Euro 8-10 day 500mb Mean. Hello Gulf of Mexico...

Boooooo 5$ gas prices/shortages.Sucks total eggs.
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Quoting palmpt:


Not going to happen. Makes you wonder about this being a flawed run?????
?? The 18z runs have always been skeptical, remember the Fujiwhara that was suppose to take place between 92L and 93L?
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1492. WxLogic
18Z NGP Not buying into it but stronger.
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1489. palmpt
Sitting in DC airport... Just flew here from Pittsburgh...headed to NY... Major thunder and delayed flights.
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Quoting stormhank:
gfs.. Florida today at noon....18z houston...00z tonight bermuda lol....I beleive the models will all come together once/ when 97L becomes a depression


I do not think the GFS will shift to the east that much, especially considering it hasn't shown a re-curvature without impacting the USA for a while now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
1487. Patrap
.. Where's RitaEva??


Oh I hope not on,a...er, WU-cation

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting nigel20:
98L is probably the best looking tropical wave of the season.


now THAT is a classic Cape Verde wave!!!!

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gfs.. Florida today at noon....18z houston...00z tonight bermuda lol....I beleive the models will all come together once/ when 97L becomes a depression
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What percentages will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 93L at 8PM?

A. 60%
B. 70%
C. 80%
D. 90%
E. ~100% or declaration

Q: What percentages will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 97L at 8PM?

A. ~0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Lower/Higher or declaration

Q: What percentages will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 98L at 8PM?

A. ~0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Lower/Higher or declaration

EBC.



ECD, imo
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I love the buoy postings on pressure changes but when you post the image if you could also say where the buoy is located that would be super helpful. Some of you do that, some do not :)

Going to become even more important with all the invests out there. Hard to have to pull up the buoy link to cross reference locations.

Merci beaucoup!
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Quoting presslord:


in other words...the GFS shows it humping the ridge?
That didn't sound right.You mean bumping the rigde?
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1480. palmpt
Quoting Levi32:
This is where the GFS may be pulling one of its odd stunts. At 228 hours the Texas ridge is directly northwest of the storm, with the weakness east of it to the north of the storm. However, the GFS plows the storm northwest right towards the center of the high, something that would be unlikely to happen. I would expect more of a northward turn there.





Not going to happen. Makes you wonder about this being a flawed run?????
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Quoting Tazmanian:



966mb on the mode runs wish could mean cat 4 or 5 hurricane


ouch



hmmm,ok. Still long ways out. That would be Texas luck though. It's either all (major) or nothing (no rain)
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what do mode runs show with 98L
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1477. Levi32
Quoting tropicfreak:
Repost from last page.

IMO, and I'm sure most would agree with me, that 93L is finally a TD, if not a TS. CA and Belize needs to keep tabs on this system.

Levi I know that this is a lonnnng way out but is there a possibility of 98L affecting the US? Just curious.


It's way too early to tell. If it tries to develop right away, then its chances of affecting land are reduced, as early-developing Cape Verde storms have a long time to find a weak spot in the ridge across the entire Atlantic. However, we don't know if it's going to develop right away, and we need at least a day of watching it over water before we can see what it's really made of.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26599
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's pumping, always has been.


oh...well...my mistake...
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Texas with it being so dry and a major hurricane that could give them a lot of flash flooding
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hurricane hitting Texas on the GFS.. Where's RitaEva??


Teddy,the trend has been west today with GFS and Euro.
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1473. Patrap
Currently Active Tropical Cyclones,sans 98L
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Hurricane hitting Texas on the GFS.. Where's RitaEva??
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Quoting presslord:


in other words...the GFS shows it humping the ridge?


It's pumping, always has been.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Last gfs run still not good for anyone. And, it's a huge change from the last dozen runs. Huge difference! Even hard to believe it could change that much. But sill a long way out.

Link
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1547
BBL
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Quoting Levi32:
This is where the GFS may be pulling one of its odd stunts. At 228 hours the Texas ridge is directly northwest of the storm, with the weakness east of it to the north of the storm. However, the GFS plows the storm northwest right towards the center of the high, something that would be unlikely to happen. I would expect more of a northward turn there.





in other words...the GFS shows it humping the ridge?
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hi Levi, not saying I belive this but, say by chance. How strong is that showing?



966mb on the mode runs wish could mean cat 4 or 5 hurricane


ouch
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12z GFS/Euro 8-10 day 500mb Mean. Hello Gulf of Mexico...

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10209
1465. HarryMc
Quoting cheaterwon:


Get an android tablet instead of an Ipad they are 10 times better. And they have flash which rocks, you don't truly have the internet unless you have flash.;p


I don't have a tablet but I bought a Droid X2 to replace my dead IPhone. It rocks. It runs flash models, regular sites rather than mobile... can't say enough good about the Android... OTHER than I'm older and just plain can't see what's on the screen without my glasses or contacts.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
It says 966 mb.


That's a cat 2/3 hurricane!
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Quoting stormpetrol:
93L pulling more WNW IMO.It has also slowed considerably since yesterday!
Current steering looks WNW now.





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1462. MTWX
Quoting tropicfreak:


Heck at least it will bring Texas that wonderful 4 letter word that begins with the letter R.

Not exactly the way they want it, but I think at this point they are willing to take on anything that would assist in ending their drought.
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1461. Patrap
Seems the ol Nose of the High is gonna be someone's friend again, and someone's worst enemy again.


Lets think fizzle.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting Levi32:
This is where the GFS may be pulling one of its odd stunts. At 228 hours the Texas ridge is directly northwest of the storm, with the weakness east of it to the north of the storm. However, the GFS plows the storm northwest right towards the center of the high, something that would be unlikely to happen. I would expect more of a northward turn there.



Lol...Shhhhh. Don't say that.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10209
Repost from last page.

IMO, and I'm sure most would agree with me, that 93L is finally a TD, if not a TS. CA and Belize needs to keep tabs on this system.

Levi I know that this is a lonnnng way out but is there a possibility of 98L affecting the US? Just curious.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Does that say 985 mb? And isn't that the pressure of a cat 2 hurricane?
It says 966 mb.
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Quoting Levi32:
Oh gee....A Houston hurricane on the GFS. That wasn't expected.



Hi Levi, not saying I belive this but, say by chance. How strong is that showing?
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Quoting palmpt:
What happened to Jason? Anyway, things are hitting up.




he got ban for life it seem for makeing too many ID names now moveing on too 93 97 and 98L
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1455. Levi32
This is where the GFS may be pulling one of its odd stunts. At 228 hours the Texas ridge is directly northwest of the storm, with the weakness east of it to the north of the storm. However, the GFS plows the storm northwest right towards the center of the high, something that would be unlikely to happen. I would expect more of a northward turn there.



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26599
1454. scCane
Link

Looks like this positive NAO isn't going to last much longer.
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1453. palmpt
What happened to Jason? Anyway, things are hitting up.
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Quoting Levi32:
Oh gee....A Houston hurricane on the GFS. That wasn't expected.



Does that say 985 mb? And isn't that the pressure of a cat 2 hurricane?
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Buoy 42058 is showing 1007.6mb and falling.
42057 is 1008 mb and falling.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Got this from AccuWeather.com

Tropical Activity

Mid-August through the end of September is typically the most active part of hurricane season, and the tropics are expected to behave accordingly.

The team is predicting five or six more named storms in the Atlantic Basin during September and one more in October. One or two of those storms are expected to make a direct hit on the U.S.

AccuWeather.com Tropical Expert Dan Kottlowski stated that these impacts will mostly likely be somewhere along the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Hatteras, N.C. He also mentioned that areas from Florida into the Carolinas have a slightly higher chance of being hit.

North of Hatteras, chances are minimal.


Only one named storm in October?
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Oh god the blog will go in panic mode!
Uh, u missed it... blog's been there since the 10-day runs targeted first FL, then GoM, then the entire EC.... lol

BTW, finally got a moment of no rain here... I'd forgotten how wonderful a rainy day is, especially when you don't have to get up and go places... lol
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1448. NASA101
HOUSTON we have a problem... 18Z GFS!!
12Z EURO was near New Orleans...
Is this is a trend...shifting WEST!!?

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Quoting Patrap:
Wassup?

Leave that for the young people Patrap.
Quoting IceCoast:
Ouch.
Um yeah I'll belive that run when the storm is at least 3 to four days away from that area.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol...Yeah, still a long way out.
The model runs to me as of now are a joke.I remember they had Bill making landfall in NOLA as a cat 4 storm 2 years ago.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.