Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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1546. emcf30
Quoting presslord:
I just got the nicest e-mail from the loveliest Nigerian widow lady. Seems she wants to transfer half her late husband's $60 million estate into my personal checking account...guess my troubles are over...


LOL, just don't forget to send her $5200.00 to make the transfer.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
It would also send AtHomeInTexas running north.


Look for the shiny blue f150. I'll honk as I go by. Lol.
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If the invests and the wave behind 98L develops, then we would get to K before the end of august.
When has that ever happened?
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1543. P451
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


At this point it's going to buy the ridge a drink and ask for it's phone number.


LOL!
Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
i oder the atcf too update
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
Quoting TomTaylor:
only one storm in October?

We'll see how that forecast goes


Lol I said the same thing.
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1539. hotrods
To much teasing going on for Florida from the model runs, take each run with a grain of salt.
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1538. Levi32
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Levi, with the latest steering is there any chance 93L makes it through the Yucatan Channel ?


93L? No.
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1537. P451
While everyone is zeroing in on details of 276 and 360 hour model runs - taking every little bit from them as a potential situation - the wise thing to do is to step back and do the following.

Realize model runs outside of three days are not realistic.

What you can do is see that for a couple of days now these models have been attempting to develop a major hurricane and have it striking anywhere from Texas to South Pressolina.

In that what you take from these runs is this:

The models are picking up on the fact that the atmosphere has been predicted to be conducive to major hurricane development. Steering is such that the Gulf Coast and SE US coastline could potentially see a system steered in this direction. If a system were to find itself in this modeled atmosphere then it would be expected to develop significantly and be steered in the general direction of the US in the 12-16 day period of time.

AND?

That's it!

Nothing more. NOTHING.

I see a lot of folks looking for precision in what they see in these model runs. That's not what they are meant to be used for - at all!

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
1536. angiest
Quoting redwagon:

And that Ike post you made earlier was very timely.


it looks like about 2/3rds the size of Texas at a rough guess. Looking at it on my phone which is not a large enoug screen.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting TomTaylor:
only one storm in October?

We'll see how that forecast goes


Only 5/6 in September?

I don't believe it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32687
Quoting aislinnpaps:
It would also send AtHomeInTexas running north.


Yep, us most likely too. If that was to actually pan out. We will see I guess.
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1533. Patrap
Im gonna,in time in a few days,,put together a co-blog to my Prep page with Model tutorials and such.

That can fill a need I feel.

Feel free to wu-mail me any Links and tutorials one has.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129352
Quoting aislinnpaps:
So we do have Franklin yet?


Franklin? You mean Harvey?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32687
I just got the nicest e-mail from the loveliest Nigerian widow lady. Seems she wants to transfer half her late husband's $60 million estate into my personal checking account...guess my troubles are over...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Got this from AccuWeather.com

Tropical Activity

Mid-August through the end of September is typically the most active part of hurricane season, and the tropics are expected to behave accordingly.

The team is predicting five or six more named storms in the Atlantic Basin during September and one more in October. One or two of those storms are expected to make a direct hit on the U.S.

AccuWeather.com Tropical Expert Dan Kottlowski stated that these impacts will mostly likely be somewhere along the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Hatteras, N.C. He also mentioned that areas from Florida into the Carolinas have a slightly higher chance of being hit.

North of Hatteras, chances are minimal.
only one storm in October?

We'll see how that forecast goes
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


At this point it's going to buy the ridge a drink and ask for it's phone number.


LOL.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32687
So we do have Franklin yet?
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


At this point it's going to buy the ridge a drink and ask for it's phone number.



LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
Quoting angiest:
so, I get distracted by other things, and GFS drops one on my door. Coooool. :P

And that Ike post you made earlier was very timely.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
Quoting presslord:


oh...well...my mistake...


At this point it's going to buy the ridge a drink and ask for it's phone number.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
It would also send AtHomeInTexas running north.
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Quoting P451:


That is because the 6Z and 18Z runs aren't complete runs. They don't incorporate the volume of data the 00z and 12z runs do. I forget exactly what the difference is but it's a pretty big one.

This is also why 6z and 18z runs will be similar - and 0z and 12z runs will be similar. While any attempt to find continuity between a 6z or 18z AND a 0z or 12z run will be difficult.

Oh ok thanks for the explanation, I didn't know that. Actually the past 3 runs had the storm pretty close or right on top of the west coast of FL.
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Quoting DookiePBC:
Yeesh...these models can't make up their mind...yesterday it was all DOOM for the Southeast coast. Now the models all seem to be pointing toward DOOM for the Gulf. OK, what will 2moro bring!?


Midwest DOOM
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Um, that brings this hurricane's worst side and part into my front yard. I'm beginning to remember Rita a little too clearly. Good thing it's still far out enough to change.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Think it is safe to say the EPAC hurricane streak is broken?


yea
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Think it is safe to say the EPAC hurricane streak is broken?



DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
18/1800 UTC 18.6N 111.9W T4.0/4.5 GREG -- East Pacific
18/1800 UTC 14.2N 141.1W T4.0/4.0 FERNANDA -- Central Pacific
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
Quoting DookiePBC:
Yeesh...these models can't make up their mind...yesterday it was all DOOM for the Southeast coast. Now the models all seem to be pointing toward DOOM for the Gulf. OK, what will 2moro bring!?
Doom for NYC and the rest of New England.Bermuda may be inclueded as well.
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Think it is safe to say the EPAC hurricane streak is broken?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32687
Quoting DookiePBC:
Yeesh...these models can't make up their mind...yesterday it was all DOOM for the Southeast coast. Now the models all seem to be pointing toward DOOM for the Gulf. OK, what will 2moro bring!?


plenty of DOOM
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Quoting thelmores:


now THAT is a classic Cape Verde wave!!!!



That's a natural work of art right there... 98L lookin good!
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1514. angiest
so, I get distracted by other things, and GFS drops one on my door. Coooool. :P
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1513. P451
Quoting GTcooliebai:
?? The 18z runs have always been skeptical, remember the Fujiwhara that was suppose to take place between 92L and 93L?


That is because the 6Z and 18Z runs aren't complete runs. They don't incorporate the volume of data the 00z and 12z runs do. I forget exactly what the difference is but it's a pretty big one.

This is also why 6z and 18z runs will be similar - and 0z and 12z runs will be similar. While any attempt to find continuity between a 6z or 18z AND a 0z or 12z run will be difficult.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
1512. nigel20
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Storm Fernanda is a multi-basin traveler...Now in the Central Pacific.




Look to have pass its peak
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Be back later...I will be frustrated if 93L isn't upgraded at 8EDT. But...the NHC knows more than me. :-)

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Quoting stormhank:
gfs.. Florida today at noon....18z houston...00z tonight bermuda lol....I beleive the models will all come together once/ when 97L becomes a depression

Yay GFS bring it on!!!! The gfs rocks!!! Lol
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Quoting stormhank:
gfs.. Florida today at noon....18z houston...00z tonight bermuda lol....I beleive the models will all come together once/ when 97L becomes a depression


Exactly. This latest run is a repeat (similar at least) of a model from several days ago. It then moved back east over many runs.

So it's a wait and see as it get's more organized.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1548
Quoting Levi32:


It's way too early to tell. If it tries to develop right away, then its chances of affecting land are reduced, as early-developing Cape Verde storms have a long time to find a weak spot in the ridge across the entire Atlantic. However, we don't know if it's going to develop right away, and we need at least a day of watching it over water before we can see what it's really made of.
Levi, with the latest steering is there any chance 93L makes it through the Yucatan Channel ?
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Yeesh...these models can't make up their mind...yesterday it was all DOOM for the Southeast coast. Now the models all seem to be pointing toward DOOM for the Gulf. OK, what will 2moro bring!?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Storm Fernanda is a multi-basin traveler...Now in the Central Pacific.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32687
Quoting palmpt:
Sitting in DC airport... Just flew here from Pittsburgh...headed to NY... Major thunder and delayed flights.
I know.I've been hearing some impressive thunder outside.However I refuse to go by the windows.....At least we're getting much needed rain.
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1503. P451
Quoting NASA101:
HOUSTON we have a problem... 18Z GFS!!
12Z EURO was near New Orleans...
Is this is a trend...shifting WEST!!?



Things just got REAL!

As we all know the 18Z GFS at 276 hours has an exceptionally high success rate!

Quoting Tazmanian:
what do mode runs show with 98L


DOOM and plenty of it.
If Jason was here he would tell us it was a fish!!
Which is what the early model run has shown. To be taken with a grain of salt as usual.
Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Quoting thunderbug91:


ECD, imo


ebc
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Quoting NASA101:
HOUSTON we have a problem... 18Z GFS!!

Well worded.
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Quoting presslord:


oh...well...my mistake...
U r just 2 subtle for em sometimes, press....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
1499. Patrap
Experience on Majors,,well sometime ,like with GEorges and few others,,they can carve a path

Kinda like Jr. behind Gordon
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129352
Quoting Levi32:
Oh gee....A Houston hurricane on the GFS. That wasn't expected.



Wow! You aint lying! Just saw that.
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1497. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Because it's fun???? We love to watch cyclogenesis?

So.... why are you here?


I enjoy watching cyclogenesis, but I don't LOVE watching it. Been lurking on this board for many years, rarely post, hoping to learn.

I enjoy watching cyclogenesis because one of lifes mysterys is what really converts one wave into a whirling deadly machine and another, under the exact same circumstance fizzle and die? Is it as simple as Erik Larson wrote, "and then a butterfly opened his wings" or is there some scientific evidence yet to be discovered?

I am not a wishcaster, doomcaster or downcaster. I don't pretend to know what any given storm is going to do and when I see a multitude of people pretending they can, I'll make a reality check post.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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